Racing chat - Thursday 28th April

[richard-westwood]

340 punch

His name is mrdevitt 8.6   18/1 

Ideal pal    8.4  13/2 

Luke short  8.2  7/1 

Hidden land   7.7  50/1 

4pt wins top 3....12x .5 forecasts ...24x10p tricasts 

 

[Nigwilliam]

Punch 340 Jake Peter 20/1 skybet 7pl.

[calva decoy]

1250 Longchamp - QUELLO 12/1 eway ( 4 places ) 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Lingfield 3.00

IVASECRET 2/1

[kensland]

Chepstow. 

Double 

4.30.Twilight Tone.    4/1

5.00.Sir Plato.                 3/1

singles & double 

Couple trainers with one horse at meetings. 

Double. 

7.53.Chep.Echo Chamber.       7/2

1.30.Ling.Kasa River.                20/1

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

[Nigwilliam]

Redcar 240 Lily In The Jungle 9/1 ewx 3pl 

bet365 

[fuzzy64]

Lingfield

1.00 Prime objective 7-1 5th

14.00 Prince Rock 11-2  2nd

15.00 Marley Park 5-1  5th

 Mount Mogan 13-1 2nd

16.05  Pefect Symphony 9-2  2nd

 

Redcar

13.00 Mythical Madness 11-2 Won

14.10 Rich King 15-2  2nd

 

14.50 Antagoize 10-3 3rd

 Chinese Spirit 16-1  6th

15.50 Ardot 4-1   3rd

 

 

10 points bet , 6.5  points return =  - 3.5 points. Too many just missing!

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by fuzzy64

[MCLARKE]

Punchestown trend analysis

3.40

Weight > 10st 12lb, 0 from 85

Not in the top 8 in the betting, 0 from 77

This reduces the field from 28 to 2, HIDE AND SEEK and GOLF MARIN

FPLR = 1, 2 from 13, AE 1.92

This leaves HIDE AND SEEK at 17/2, 6 places

4.15

Not in the 1st 4 in the betting, 0 from 60

Not in the 1st 4, 1 from 50

Last ran more the 21 days ago, 2 from 56

This leaves MT LEINSTER at 10/3

4.50

Not in the 1st 4 last time, 0 from 38

Last ran in last 2 days, 2 from 4, AE 15.18

This leaves VITAL ISLAND at 16/1, 4 places

5.25

Beaten favourite, 3 from 8, AE 4.85

Favourite, 0 from 5

This leaves CONCERTISTA at 8/1

6.00

Weight less than 11st 1lb, 0 from 77

Ran less than 42 days ago, 1 from 81

This leaves 2, MACS CHARM and PANDA BOY

Not in the top 8 in the betting, 0 from 72

This leaves MACS CHARM at 10/1, 6 places

6.35

Odds > 9/2, 0 from 22

It is difficult to split the top 2, GABYNAKO at 5/2 and BLUE LORD at 7/4

7.45

Last ran 46 - 75 days ago, 4 from 9, AE 3.05

Not finished 1st or 2nd last time, 1 from 28

This leaves SIR ARGUS at 12/1

 

[fuzzy64]

Punchestown

3.40 Jake Peter 28-1 e/w

4.15 Sil Ver Klass 11-1

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by fuzzy64

[Bang on]

4 selections from the method I use - it doesn't give big priced winners but strike rate is excellent with the vast majority odds against ( I rarely bet odds on).

1.00 Ling - Eight of Diamonds - 2/1 - Stable in decent form, BF last time out and steps up in trip which could suit.

1.40 Red - Tricorn - 7/4 - Runs in a claimer but has a strong chance if anywhere near last years form ( won 4 hcps in a row).

5.45 Chelm - Soyounique - 15/8 - Won LTO and due to go up in the weights at the weekend, can win again.

7.30 Chelm - The Bay Warrior - 9/4 - Finished 2nd LTO (beaten fav) and is a CD winner.

[black rabbit]

golf marlin   3 40  Pun   1/5 pt win    16/1 

golden spear  3 40  pun   1/5 pt win   60/1 

 

 

 

P/L  + 122.75 pts

 

[Budgie 65]

250 muss cowboy carter

To stop my losing run

[azzybear]

don't fight it 1.50 ew

[azzybear]

seventh kingdom 2.00 ew

[fd1972uk]

Some doubles using free bets

The thin blue line & blue lord 

Soyounique & thinbault

Colinton & mi capricho

Mb. Offer mt leinster pun 1615

Gin coco pun 1540 itv offer

City chief pun 1800 itv offer

Not sure if gin coco wins does that affect my itv offer as its only these 2 races on bet365

[richard-westwood]

620 chelm 

Designer  8.2  5.6 

Tippy toes 7.9  9.0 

5pt win both 1pt rev forecast 

Edited April 28, 2022 by richard-westwood

[fd1972uk]

47 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

620 chelm 

Designer  8.2  5.6 

Tippy toes 7.9  9.0 

5pt win both 1pt rev forecast 

Thanks for highlighting that horse, really should have put more on but used it to qualify for a free bet.

Bet it only for the reason that we call the dog that when he walks over the hard flooring, lol. 

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

620 chelm 

Designer  8.2  5.6 

Tippy toes 7.9  9.0 

5pt win both 1pt rev forecast 

Tippy toes wins ..Nice price on betfair...45pts returned .....

[Nigwilliam]

7 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

Redcar 240 Lily In The Jungle 9/1 ewx 3pl 

bet365 

1st.         

[fd1972uk]

Got a double up and tippy toes and horse moneyback. 

So decent return. 

[Bang on]

7 hours ago, Bang on said:

4 selections from the method I use - it doesn't give big priced winners but strike rate is excellent with the vast majority odds against ( I rarely bet odds on).

1.00 Ling - Eight of Diamonds - 2/1 - Stable in decent form, BF last time out and steps up in trip which could suit.

1.40 Red - Tricorn - 7/4 - Runs in a claimer but has a strong chance if anywhere near last years form ( won 4 hcps in a row).

5.45 Chelm - Soyounique - 15/8 - Won LTO and due to go up in the weights at the weekend, can win again.

7.30 Chelm - The Bay Warrior - 9/4 - Finished 2nd LTO (beaten fav) and is a CD winner.

Eight of Diamonds - WON  2/1 

Tricorn - lost 2nd

Soyounique - lost 3rd

The Bay Warrior - WON  9/4 

[MCLARKE]

15 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

AW selection

Lingfield 3.00

IVASECRET 2/1

Won. BSP 2.79

38 / 151, lsp + 12.67