harry_rag Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 Bet 100 (2): 17 points treble on Udinese +5, Torino +5 and Bologna +5 v Fiorentina, Atalanta and Inter at 1.074 with Lads Might as well treble them up as not much difference to the bottom line if I hit a single loser compared to singles. This is bet 100; I incorrectly listed 2 bet 92s hence the leap from 98 to 100 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 Bet 101 (3): 17 points double on Man U +4 and Roma +4 v Chelsea and Leicester at 1.045 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 Bet 102 (4): 17.32 points on >0.5 goals in RB Leipzig v Rangers at 1.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 Bet 103 (5): 18 points on Sassuolo +5 v Napoli at 1/25 with Lads Did QPR +4 last night but managed to forget to post it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bet 103 (5): 18 points on Sassuolo +5 v Napoli at 1/25 with Lads Kerboom! Might have to wave the white flag, this would be borderline too much time and effort even if it was showing a small profit (which is about the best anyone could expect). 29.58 points down so far (19.17 to 10 point level stakes). The staking plan's not the issue (it does worse after a loss but better during a good run and while I'm in front) it's simply the fact that I'm not beating the odds. That said, the staking plan is probably a little too aggressive in terms of the loss recovery element and it did cost me in terms of not re-setting the stake when I got back in front after 30 odd winning bets. Time for a bit of wound licking and contemplation! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Geez, that was some score today. Hopefully you don't give up on glory hunts ?? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Bet 104 (1): 18 points on each team shown a card in Nottingham Forest v Sheffield U at 1/6 with 365 On 4/30/2022 at 4:13 PM, harry_rag said: this would be borderline too much time and effort even if it was showing a small profit That's the main issue for me; I feel I was spending too long looking for these bets, placing them and managing whether they got matched or not, posting on here etc. I've enjoyed the break and spending less of my time on this type of betting. That said, sometimes a bet comes to my attention that strikes me as a particularly strong selection, so I'll be carrying on posting any that I see rather than actively looking for them every day. I'm carrying on with the staking plan in an attempt to get back in the black but will review before the bank dips below 50 points. I'm inclined to think the best way to approach these bets is the simple double up approach applied by Skittle. Either you hit a 50% plus strike rate and make a profit or you fall below and make a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 19, 2022 Author Share Posted May 19, 2022 Bet 105 (2): 18 points on Crusaders to score 1+ try in each half v Fijian Drua at 1/20 with Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 Bet 106 (3): 18 points on R Madrid +3 v R Betis at 1.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 Bet 107 (4): 18 points on Chiefs to score 1+ try in each half v Force at 1/20 with Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 21, 2022 Author Share Posted May 21, 2022 Bet 108 (5): 18 points on Connacht to score 1+ try in each half at 1/12 with Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 1, 2022 Author Share Posted June 1, 2022 Bet 109 (6): 20 points on Swiatek to win a set v Pegula at 1/20 Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 1, 2022 Author Share Posted June 1, 2022 Bet 110 (7): 17.5 points on each team shown a card in Italy v Argentina at 2/7 with 365 Shoot me down if this one tanks, given that I'm betting on a fixture that hasn't been played since 1993! Chilean ref doesn't appear to have handled a game involving a European team before and there's usually a bit of juice in simple friendlies between teams from the 2 continents. As short as 1/8 elsewhere, we'll see what we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 1, 2022 Author Share Posted June 1, 2022 On 3/24/2022 at 3:19 PM, harry_rag said: Bet 49 (5): 12.5 points on each team shown a card in Italy v N Macedonia at 1/5 with 365 This is the "risky value" play; 2+ cards at 1/40 or 1+ away cards at 1/33 if you want less jeopardy. Just remembered that Italy let me down previously in this market, when a place at the World Cup was at stake. With Argentina already shown a card tonight I'm hoping it's not a case of history repeating itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 1, 2022 Author Share Posted June 1, 2022 (edited) In by half time today. Phew! Edited June 1, 2022 by harry_rag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 2, 2022 Author Share Posted June 2, 2022 Bet 111 (8): 20 points on Swiatek to win a set v Pegula at 1/18 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 Bet 112 (9): 22 points on Swiatek to win a set v Gauff at 1/16 Hills aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 5, 2022 Author Share Posted June 5, 2022 Bet 113 (10): 22 points on Nadal to win a set v Ruud at 1/22 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 5, 2022 Author Share Posted June 5, 2022 Bet 114 (11): 12.5 points on each team shown a card in Wales v Bulgaria at 1/5 with 365 Coming to something when I'm limited even when putting small stakes on an odds on shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 6, 2022 Author Share Posted June 6, 2022 Bets 115/6 (12/13): 5 points on Featherstone R to win either half v Bradford at 1/20 PP and 17.5 on them to have the highest scoring half at 1/18 with 365. Obviously the former is the safer bet and is preferred given the marginal difference in price but PP are fearful of my obvious expertise in this level of RL and would only allow me a fiver on at 1/20! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 9, 2022 Author Share Posted June 9, 2022 Bet 117 (14): 22 points on 10+ booking points each team at 1/10 Sky Bet Only one spread firm and one fixed odds firm has priced this game up. I could make a case for a sell at 54 or taking 5/4 for 50+ points but neither make quite enough appeal for a "proper" bet. I do think the fixed odds prices are a little high and it shouldn't be asking too much for each team to see at least one card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 10, 2022 Author Share Posted June 10, 2022 Bet 118(15): 22 points on New Zealand 300+ 1st innings runs v England at 1.01 (currently 318 for 4). aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 Bet 119 (16): 22 points on England +3 v Italy at 1.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 12, 2022 Author Share Posted June 12, 2022 Bets 120 & 121 (17 & 18): 16 points on St Helens to be winning at half time of full time v Hull KR at 1/8 with PP and 22 points on Hull KR to trail at anytime at 1/20 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 12, 2022 Author Share Posted June 12, 2022 Bet 122 (19): 22 points on >0.5 goals in Georgia v Bulgaria at 1.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 And another one bites the dust. After 18 winners the run is brought to an end by the 1st total goals bet since before the last loser. From 29.58 points down I got back to within 3.6 points of being level but I'm 25.6 points down again now. Overall it's 114 winners from 122 bets for a level stakes loss of 14.28 points. ROI is -1.47% actual and -1.17% level stakes. Time to bin the staking plan as the loss recovery element is too ambitious. I'm switching to a simple roll over till doubled basis. If I can hit a 50% success rate I make a profit, if not I make a loss. I make it I'd have managed 5 from 12 attempts so far. Bank stands at 74.4 points and I'll be starting each attempt with 10 points. Stakes may be subject to a degree of rounding up or down for convenience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2022 Author Share Posted June 19, 2022 Ok, time to start the new "double up" era with a bit of double jeopardy. Bet 123 (1.1) and 124 (2.1): 10 points each on England to score 20+ points v Barbarians at 1/16 with 365 and to score 1+ tries in each half at 1/14 with Sky Bet. 123 and 124 being the overall bet count for the thread and 1.1 and 2.1 denoting the first bets on double-up attempts 1 and 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2022 Author Share Posted June 19, 2022 Both landed even if England are playing like the team who've had a man sent off! Bet 125 (1.2): 11 points on at least one card in each half in Tenerife v Girona at 1/8 with Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2022 Author Share Posted June 19, 2022 Bet 126 (1.3): 12 points on Zalatoris top 10 finish in the US Open at 1.02 (currently leading at 6 under). aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 Attempt one up to bet 4, next stake 12.24, attempt two up to bet 2, next stake 10.71. Stakes may be subject to a degree of rounding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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