Wildgarden Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 thats my southwell picks easy money use it wisely. Doedelzak 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 My rules didn't work for me last week but I'll persevere. RH_DateAndTime Horse 18/02/2022 16:45 Muhalhel 18/02/2022 16:45 My Brother Mike 18/02/2022 16:45 Custard The Dragon 18/02/2022 17:15 Soi Dao 18/02/2022 19:45 Straitouttacompton 18/02/2022 19:45 Maharashtra 18/02/2022 20:15 Ask Peter 18/02/2022 20:15 Art Expert gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 14 hours ago, Wildgarden said: thats my southwell picks easy money use it wisely. all cancelled the money machine is broken MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 We can bring it back out next Tuesday and Thursday. gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Tomorrow's selections RH_DateAndTime Horse 22/02/2022 18:30 The Resdev Way 5/1 22/02/2022 19:00 Griffin Park 9/4 22/02/2022 19:00 Roamin In Gloami 5/1 22/02/2022 19:00 Copper Mountain 11/4 Copper Mountain Bang on, Wildgarden, gbettle and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Date Leg Time Num Selections Stall Runners Length 12/02/2022 1 17:00 6,5,2 Louis Treize, San Juan, Cool Spirit 10,3,2 11 5f 12/02/2022 2 17:30 3 Desert Lime 3 3 5f 12/02/2022 3 18:00 3,4 Caroline Dale, Digital 4,6 6 5f 12/02/2022 4 18:30 3,7 Kitten's Dream, Batocchi 7,12 12 1m6f 12/02/2022 5 19:00 3,4 Roamin In Gloamin,Sid's Annie 6,1 6 1m 12/02/2022 6 19:30 8 Lady Lou 4 8 7f 24-line Placepot, Prize Fund: £77,139 Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 730 lady lou bsp 800 kirimati island bsp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, gbettle said: Date Leg Time Num Selections Stall Runners Length 12/02/2022 1 17:00 6,5,2 Louis Treize, San Juan, Cool Spirit 10,3,2 11 5f 12/02/2022 2 17:30 3 Desert Lime 3 3 5f 12/02/2022 3 18:00 3,4 Caroline Dale, Digital 4,6 6 5f 12/02/2022 4 18:30 3,7 Kitten's Dream, Batocchi 7,12 12 1m6f 12/02/2022 5 19:00 3,4 Roamin In Gloamin,Sid's Annie 6,1 6 1m 12/02/2022 6 19:30 8 Lady Lou 4 8 7f 24-line Placepot, Prize Fund: £77,139 Final Prize Fund: £81,830 Dividend of £28.70 to a £1 stake 2-winning lines: Wildgarden, Doedelzak and Nigwilliam 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) 53 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 730 lady lou bsp 800 kirimati island bsp 2nd both gutted. -2 Edited February 22, 2022 by Wildgarden MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Has the bubble burst ? 3 winners out of 28 yesterday with an AE of 0.91 Wildgarden and gbettle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just 1 race over 7 furlongs today. RH_DateAndTime Horse 24/02/2022 16:57 Catbird Seat 4/1 24/02/2022 16:57 Maharashtra 11/2 gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 lets roll out printing machine bsp as usual. 1252 southwell enderman, trevie fountain, sovereign moon. 127 magic gem 312 tipperary tiger, patsy fagan or shallow hal Doedelzak, MCLARKE, gbettle and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12-line placepot, mid-day prize fund should be low Doedelzak and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Watching the racing the other day, it seems as if everyone is aware of the 'golden strip', Draws didn't seem to matter as the jockeys who wanted to win were quickly pushing for their ideal position. MCLARKE and yossa6133 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, gbettle said: 12-line placepot, mid-day prize fund should be low that looks sweet gona do same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 hours ago, gbettle said: 12-line placepot, mid-day prize fund should be low Southwell Tote Placepot Prize Fund: £48,979 Dividend of £98.30 to a £1 stake Out in the 1st leg: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Just 1 race over 7 furlongs today. RH_DateAndTime Horse 24/02/2022 16:57 Catbird Seat 4/1 24/02/2022 16:57 Maharashtra 11/2 Maharashtra wins at 7/2 for a nice return. gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, Wildgarden said: lets roll out printing machine bsp as usual. 1252 southwell enderman, trevie fountain narrow 2nd , sovereign moon 127 magic gem narrow 2nd. 312 tipperary tiger, patsy fagan or shallow hal narrow 2nd no good some unlucky hits had the bias gone lol -7 ;-( Edited February 24, 2022 by Wildgarden MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 As suspected, the advantage seems to have quickly gone. The AE figures for draws 4 to 9 are December 1.23 January 1.06 February 0.95 My criteria of ignoring races below 7 furlongs still looks to have an advantage with an AE in Ferbruary of 1.18. Indeed it may be worth tightening this criteria as for 8 furlongs there were 19 runners and no winners. The criteria of selecting those that had finished in the 1st 4 was effective with an AE of 1.39. For those not in the 1st 4 there was 1 winner from 33 runners. However the criteria of only selecting the 1st 4 in the betting was not effective with an AE of 1.00, those forecast 5 to 7 had an AE of 2.11. Those drawn 8 and 9 had 0 winners from 13 winners. So for March (1st meeting tomorrow) my criteria will be :- Draw 4 - 7 Distance 9f + FPLR 1-4 Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 28 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: As suspected, the advantage seems to have quickly gone. The AE figures for draws 4 to 9 are December 1.23 January 1.06 February 0.95 My criteria of ignoring races below 7 furlongs still looks to have an advantage with an AE in Ferbruary of 1.18. Indeed it may be worth tightening this criteria as for 8 furlongs there were 19 runners and no winners. The criteria of selecting those that had finished in the 1st 4 was effective with an AE of 1.39. For those not in the 1st 4 there was 1 winner from 33 runners. However the criteria of only selecting the 1st 4 in the betting was not effective with an AE of 1.00, those forecast 5 to 7 had an AE of 2.11. Those drawn 8 and 9 had 0 winners from 13 winners. So for March (1st meeting tomorrow) my criteria will be :- Draw 4 - 7 Distance 9f + FPLR 1-4 Many thanks @MCLARKE Sorry, but what does FPLR mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Why do you think the bias has disappeared @MCLARKE? I often wonder why the Hong Kong tracks don't do anything to make the draw bias less in their races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, gbettle said: Many thanks @MCLARKE Sorry, but what does FPLR mean? Finishing Position Last Run. gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Why do you think the bias has disappeared @MCLARKE? I often wonder why the Hong Kong tracks don't do anything to make the draw bias less in their races. Or Chester . Barry Hills from stall 1 or 2 in a sprint was license to print money. I went to last Thursday's meeting & just stuck to in form trainers & local trainers who use the course to work their horses Dixon / Furtado , had ok start but we left an hour earlier than planned because it was freezing . alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said: Why do you think the bias has disappeared @MCLARKE? I often wonder why the Hong Kong tracks don't do anything to make the draw bias less in their races. A number of reasons. Jockeys may now know the best part of the course to run on so they will aim for that no matter which draw they have. Punters have cottoned on to it so the prices will reduce. Alterations have been made to the turf treatment. gbettle, alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, calva decoy said: Or Chester . Barry Hills from stall 1 or 2 in a sprint was license to print money. Long since gone I'm afraid. The AE for stall 1 over the last few years has fallen to 0.92 I went to Chester a few years ago and a few of my non racing mates said they were going to back stall 1 because that horse had less distance to travel. I tried to explain that you need to find the horse that offers the best value rather than the horse that is most likely to win. This fell on deaf ears. I suppose that's why the rest of us still have a slim chance to make money. A few years ago stalls 3 and 4 became profitable but that edge has also now gone. alexcaruso808, gbettle and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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