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** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **

Southwell draw bias


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  • 3 weeks later...
On 3/2/2022 at 3:51 PM, MCLARKE said:

As suspected, the advantage seems to have quickly gone.

The AE figures for draws 4 to 9 are

December 1.23

January 1.06

February 0.95

My criteria of ignoring races below 7 furlongs still looks to have an advantage with an AE in Ferbruary of 1.18. Indeed it may be worth tightening this criteria as for 8 furlongs there were 19 runners and no winners.

The criteria of selecting those that had finished in the 1st 4 was effective with an AE of 1.39. For those not in the 1st 4 there was 1 winner from 33 runners.

However the criteria of only selecting the 1st 4 in the betting was not effective with an AE of 1.00, those forecast 5 to 7 had an AE of 2.11.

Those drawn 8 and 9 had 0 winners from 13 winners.

So for March (1st meeting tomorrow) my criteria will be :-

Draw 4 - 7

Distance 9f +

FPLR 1-4

The AE declined even more in March with an AE of 0.86.

My revised criteria has also been disappointing with an AE of 0.90 in March.

I will therefore draw a line under this, having escaped with a little bit of profit.

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