Racing Chat - Monday 20th September

[MCLARKE]

Over the years I've had £12k in free bets from which I've managed to get back £11k in cash. I'm happy with this because often you need to bet on events which otherwise you wouldn't do to satisfy the condition of the free bet.

[fd1972uk]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Is that the Hills offer? Did that myself and wasn't sure how many freebies it had generated so far. Are you sure you get 3 for a hat trick though, rather than one? I thought it was a free bet every time they scored rather than for every TD they scored, so once per game max.

Edit: I think you're right, looking at the 3 freebies I've got lined up after yesterday's action.

Yeah as said its exch TD they score. Unfortunately KC had Tyreek Hill as a bleeding punt returner so no win there. Davante Adams plays next. Then next week's final games of September and that'll be the bonus over. 

It's already done the goods with the treble today. 

Edited September 20, 2021 by fd1972uk

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY

B/Fwd Sep -6.75 Points

These are not tips; just an experiment

1.40 List Party Central 4/5 steady                                       Alt (2) 3/1

2.10 List 1 A Connect 11/10 steady                                    Alt (2) 5/2 (11/4 last night)

4.55 List Bleu Berry 8/11 (11/8 ln 2 n/r's)  DTR                    Alt (1) 15/4 (5/1 last night)

5.25 List Le Nouveau 4/6 steady  DTR                                  Alt (5) 11/2 steady

2.50 Ham Ventura Flame 9/4 (2/1 last night)                      Alt (5) 3/1  NB Market move for Global Humour 2/1; Ventura Flame looks bad for market followers

5.35 Ham Temper Trap 7/4 (3/1 ln Nr's now)                      Alt (6) 9/2 

3.35 War An Tailliur 6/4 (5/4 last night = LN)                    Alt (3) 3/1 (7/2 LN)

4.10 War Three Bullet Gate 9/4 (7/4 LN)                           Alt (5) 6/4 Fav; 9/4 LN)

2.55 Fair Recurrent Dream 2/5 DTR                                  Alt No Bet

4.37 Fair Ultramarine 2/1 steady DTR                               Alt (2) 5/2

5.30 Wolv Kingsholm 11/4 steady                                    Alt (10) 11/2 (was 4/1 LN)

7.30 Wolv Scheherazade 7/2 (15/4 LN)                             Alt (4) 9/4 (was 2/1 LN)

12 Selections from 45 races = 26.6%

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Book Bets:

3.35 War An Tailliur 13/8

5.30Wolv Kingsholm 11/4

5.35 Ham Temper Trap 13/8

One £1 win Trixie = £4 poss return £50.39

Singles bet = 3.35 War £2 win on An Tailliur at 3.10 = £4.10 profit if it wins

Hopefully back later with some jockey bookings bets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

The Big 3 got 5 winners but yet again they didn't pay for the losers.  They made a 2.76 loss =  C/fwd loss of -9.51

My alternative bets had 4 winners and made 11 points profit.  At least this has reduced the deficit to -66.95 points

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With my book bets I was once again saved with my singles bet to cover my Trixie; hence a 12p profit brings my new total to £716.93 (Bank £1056.22)

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37 races tomorrow to look at

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

So is it a better use of a free bet to stick it on something at bigger odds that you fancy but might not otherwise have backed rather than just use it as part of the stake on something you would be backing anyway? e.g. I could have used a fiver freebie as part of a £20 bet on a 2/1 shot but I'm better of finding a 10/1 shot and using it on that?

I assume there's a law of diminishing returns if you use it on something you've more or less picked at random versus a shorter priced selection you are confident in?

Im a nutter as soon as I get a free bet I pick my normal list of horses and then put it (freebie) on the longest price on the list. If you win nowt you lose nowt.

[MCLARKE]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Im a nutter as soon as I get a free bet I pick my normal list of horses and then put it (freebie) on the longest price on the list. If you win nowt you lose nowt.

Seems as good a system as any.

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Hamilton 4.30

MAC AILEY 6/4

Won. BSP 2.42.

48 / 128, LSP + £37.12.

10.87 points profit so far this month so that will mean the 5th monthly profit in a row.

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Well i called that one right (based on the available figures re- Ultramarine) although the once raced winner didn't half look like a very good horse probably group3  at very least was quite impressive.

Very interesting that Ultramarine seemed to be installed as an initial 2/1 fav because it ran well in a group 1 race, whereas your selection process took account of when Glengarra met Ultramarine before.  Hence it looks as though the market factored in improvement that just wasn't there 

[Zilzalian]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very interesting that Ultramarine seemed to be installed as an initial 2/1 fav because it ran well in a group 1 race, whereas your selection process took account of when Glengarra met Ultramarine before.  Hence it looks as though the market factored in improvement that just wasn't there 

thing is look at the discrepancy 2/1 v 12/1 it was in the form and ignored why? because one is O'Briens the other isn't. Thats the good thing about speed figures they dont listen to Hype, bookies, tipsters trainers or Jockeys.  the winner straight answers figure for this race is 130 thats pretty much as high as i have recorded this year for a 2 yr old. and should go in all notebooks. I will stick my neck out and say thats the best irish 2yold this season up to press. 

psst "chimgan"