Tennis Tips - September 27 - October 3

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Not great couple of weeks after the US Open, now Chicago (with Clijsters!), Nur Sultan, Sofia and San Diego!

[KennyDelight]

That Nur Sultan draw is so unbalanced. The top half is stacked with all the better players of the bunch, both seeded and unseeded. But draw is really as unpredictable as they come

Top half seeds Putintseva, Konjuh, Mladenovic, Peterson

Bottom half seeds Minnen, van Uytvanck, Burel, Gracheva

Kaja Juvan is a tasty 17/1 odds from the bottom half of the draw. She has a match v Greet Minnen, the winner faces a qualifier (Boulter/Krunic), someone out of (Vikhlyantseva, Cristian, Minella, Burel), then semi final, final. 

 

[CzechPunter]

Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Kim Clijsters at 1.65 with Pinnacle

I'm not quite sure what Clijsters wants to accomplish here, but I don't fancy her chances to do well. She has no match practice, she didn't seem to be in form according to reports from the US Open and Hsieh isn't an easy draw by any stretch.

[CzechPunter]

Marton Fucsovics to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Hopefully it's finally time for Fucsovics to bounce back from his current bad streak, which has been on pretty much since the Wimbledon. Dimitrov has been poor himself, though, and he has no good results to his name in recent times at all. 

[darko08]

Giron to beat Munar at 1.53 with bet365

The main reason for this pick is obvious. Munar is a pure claycourter and his record on indoor hard courts is horrible (9-20). Giron record on indoors is clearly better (43-33), and he beat Rinderknech and De Minaur the last week, in Metz (indoor).

[CzechPunter]

Marketa Vondrousova to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at 1.91 with William Hill

Fancy Vondrousova as a bit bigger favorite given recent forms and what I've seen from her in the first round. She looks to be improving, while Pavs struggled big time against Martincova in Ostrava. Didn't see that match, but I saw Martincova against both Siniakova and Sakkari and it wasn't that impressive.

[CzechPunter]

The odds have dropped on that one, let's see how it goes!

Lorenzo Sonego to beat Sebastian Korda at 2.40 with Pinnacle

Not quite sure why the odds are so big on Sonego. Sure, the loss against Rune was bad, but he's still done more than Korda recently. I like the young talent, don't get me wrong, but I don't think he should be getting this favored at the moment.

[four-leaf]

20 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Marketa Vondrousova to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at 1.91 with William Hill

Fancy Vondrousova as a bit bigger favorite given recent forms and what I've seen from her in the first round. She looks to be improving, while Pavs struggled big time against Martincova in Ostrava. Didn't see that match, but I saw Martincova against both Siniakova and Sakkari and it wasn't that impressive.

Well I saw the match when Nastia Pavs struggled and eventually lost to Martincova and it wasn't that impressive from Martincova but it was even less impressive from Nastia who just threw basically everything away when dropping serve when serving for first set at 5-4 because she was seriously stuggling with her shots from everywhere and every angle. She just couldn't put a ball right for the rest of the match.

So I can easily say I agree with Marketa being the winner in this matchup.

[four-leaf]

Kevin Anderson to beat (-3.5 games) Dan Evans at 3.35 with Unibet

Hello Unibet wazzup? Don't get me wrong but Dan Evans just isn't there right now and sure he got to round 4 of USO but still he's not there now. And he hasn't played since either and I remember @CzechPunter having plenty of success going against Dan recently before his exploits at USO which by looking at which players he beat there wasn't that impressive anyway.

This odds looks completely off. Kevin is 2-0 up in this matchup and he's a Lucky loser in San Diego. 3.5 games isn't even that hard to cover for any player outhere so just because Dan is ranked 22 atm it's not really where he's at mentally.

I'll give Kevin 3.5 games to cover in a matchup like this under current circumstances any day of the week.

[Torque]

13 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Kevin Anderson to beat (-3.5 games) Dan Evans at 3.35 with Unibet

Hello Unibet wazzup? Don't get me wrong but Dan Evans just isn't there right now and sure he got to round 4 of USO but still he's not there now. And he hasn't played since either and I remember @CzechPunter having plenty of success going against Dan recently before his exploits at USO which by looking at which players he beat there wasn't that impressive anyway.

This odds looks completely off. Kevin is 2-0 up in this matchup and he's a Lucky loser in San Diego. 3.5 games isn't even that hard to cover for any player outhere so just because Dan is ranked 22 atm it's not really where he's at mentally.

I'll give Kevin 3.5 games to cover in a matchup like this under current circumstances any day of the week.

All the luck @four-leaf as I think you'll need it. Anderson wasn't able to break Bolt when losing in the final qualifying round despite the match going to three sets, and if he is similarly unsuccessful against Evans he isn't going to cover that handicap. He might win, but if he does it'll probably be via tie-breaks and on that basis I couldn't even confidently back him to cover the 2.5 game line.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Torque

[four-leaf]

6 minutes ago, Torque said:

All the luck @four-leaf as I think you'll need it. Anderson wasn't able to break Bolt when losing in the final qualifying round despite the match going to three sets, and if he is similarly unsuccessful against Evans he isn't going to cover that handicap. He might win, but if he does it'll probably be via tie-breaks and on that basis I couldn't even confidently back him to cover the 2.5 game line.

You surely know the nature of being a lucky loser right?

[Torque]

Yes. And it doesn't alter my thinking. I hope he covers for you, but I can't see it.

[four-leaf]

4 minutes ago, Torque said:

Yes. And it doesn't alter my thinking. I hope he covers for you, but I can't see it.

Ok but 3.5 is a altered handicap so I'm taking my chances.

 

Edit: Worst case scenario would be cashout if Kevin struggles from the word go.

Edited September 29, 2021 by four-leaf

[Torque]

1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Ok but 3.5 is a altered handicap so I'm taking my chances.

Hopefully it comes in, but personally I'd want a better price - at least 3 to 1 - and even then I'd be expecting a loser. Still, let's say I'm right and it's a 'bad' bet from a value perspective that doesn't mean it can't win. Something else to consider is that despite his poor form, Evans played a doubles match last night with Fognini - they lost but could easily have won - so that might help him tonight.

[four-leaf]

4 minutes ago, Torque said:

Hopefully it comes in, but personally I'd want a better price - at least 3 to 1 - and even then I'd be expecting a loser. Still, let's say I'm right and it's a 'bad' bet from a value perspective that doesn't mean it can't win. Something else to consider is that despite his poor form, Evans played a doubles match last night with Fognini - they lost but could easily have won - so that might help him tonight.

Yep I saw Dan played a doubles last night but he's on a losing streak outside of gs right now.

[Torque]

From my perspective, it's probably more a case of Anderson's poor return game trumping the poor form of Evans. They are both struggling in their own way, so any sort of bet on either of them doesn't appeal to me. Evans has the better all-round game though, so you'd think he's more likely to break Anderson than the other way round which suggests a handicap bet on him might be the better play. Anyway, let's see what happens.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Torque

[four-leaf]

@Torque I know it's always hard to snap out of a losing streak so I'm trying to take some advantage of that in tonights Dan and Kevin matchup.

Edited September 29, 2021 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

It's like Lloyd Harris match yesterday. He was bound to win that with 4 games to spare so similar to Kevins chances tonight I think we might see some struggles both ways and there will be chances for Kevin to break Dan.

[Torque]

13 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@Torque I know it's always hard to snap out of a losing streak so I'm trying to take some advantage of that in tonights Dan and Kevin matchup.

I can understand that thinking, but I'd play it safer - either ML or the handicap I mentioned. Lower reward but also lower risk. 

[four-leaf]

6 minutes ago, Torque said:

I can understand that thinking, but I'd play it safer - either ML or the handicap I mentioned. Lower reward but also lower risk. 

Yepp I know but I'm on a hunt for a larger win tonight than just evens.

Edited September 29, 2021 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

@Torque I know you are always trying to help and I appreciate your input and words and I might have carried it one way to far with 3.5 games to cover by Kevin but I'll probably just gonna hope for a 90-100% cashback when cashing out.

Might be better ways to build a buffert than chasing dreams of big hcps being covered.

[four-leaf]

Might anyone have caught a glimpse of Rebecca Peterson today? She was a goldmine at 3.00 to win in straights. I think it's bound to come a tournament for her where she goes all the way again and Nur Sultan could be it.

Edited September 29, 2021 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter do you know if any bookie has some odds up right now for outright on Nur Sultan WTA?

[CzechPunter]

You usually have to wait before the play ends for the day for the outright odds to open.

[four-leaf]

34 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

You usually have to wait before the play ends for the day for the outright odds to open.

but it ended ages ago ?

[four-leaf]

Peterson, Rebecca (Outright) WTA Nur-Sultan 2021 

Peterson outright at 8.00 with Unibet

Edit: The only hurdles to pass for Peterson would be next match v Potapova and the one after that which probably will be the home favourite Putintseva or Gasanova who Putintseva should beat.

Edited September 29, 2021 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

@Torque guess what? I got 101% more at cashout right at the first hurdle for Evans to serve when Anderson won the first point so cashout it is at full 

[four-leaf]

hmm looks just like I thought it would look like.. Kevin A gets loads more free points off of his serve no matter if it's first or second and Dan relies to mutch on his first serve.

Edited September 29, 2021 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

In-play Kevin Anderson -3.5 games at 3.55 with Unibet