Tennis Tips - September 27 - October 3

[four-leaf]

Kevin looks like a whole new player tonight compared to the qualies final against Bolt 

[CzechPunter]

Vondrousova made it look easy, good to see.

[four-leaf]

Looks like you're right @Torque as the tie-break was inevitable as well as Kevin not getting to serve first in second set which makes 3.5 games look like a dream.

[four-leaf]

I dream of a third set ending 6-1 or 6-2 for Kevin but never gonna happen 

[four-leaf]

Gonna have me some fun with Hubert after this debacle with Kevin.

Hubert Hurkacz to beat (-4.5 games) Alex Bolt at 2.15 with Unibet

Hurkacz is on a roll throughout this season and should look to ease off any jetlag by strolling past the aussie qualifier.

[four-leaf]

Ok great, Hurkacz looking absolutely clueless on how to break Bolt. Best day of my life *not*

[Torque]

Hubi turns on the burners and it's looking like a winner @four-leaf 

[four-leaf]

5 minutes ago, Torque said:

Hubi turns on the burners and it's looking like a winner @four-leaf 

Finally some righteousness or justice as I feel like I've earned 

[four-leaf]

@Torque I even doubled the stake from what I staked on the previous negative bet just to make sure to be on + instead of +- 0 so nice to be on the positive end again.

Two more matches on this days ATP SD schedule.

[four-leaf]

Andrey Rublev to beat (-1.5 sets) Brandon Nakashima at 1.98

Feels like Brandon could be competitive enough for a set or even two but the russian second best should be to strong for Brandon to have his chances to take set.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to beat Lloyd Harris at 1.92

Could easily be anything out the ordinary this one but Diego should be good enough for a win. Harris didn't look all to convincing by losing a set to a tall big serving guy like Eubanks.

 

Acca at 3.80 with Unibet

[Torque]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Andrey Rublev to beat (-1.5 sets) Brandon Nakashima at 1.98

Feels like Brandon could be competitive enough for a set or even two but the russian second best should be to strong for Brandon to have his chances to take set.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to beat Lloyd Harris at 1.92

Could easily be anything out the ordinary this one but Diego should be good enough for a win. Harris didn't look all to convincing by losing a set to a tall big serving guy like Eubanks.

 

Acca at 3.80 with Unibet

The Rublev pick should have a chance as this is the sort of tournament the Russian has been flying through and winning the last couple of years, but he'll have to serve much better than he has done recently. Against Tiafoe at the US Open for example, his second serve was a total liability and took a pasting and he also had a nasty habit of double-faulting at important times - sometimes his first serve percentage is too low as well and that creates pressure. Nakashima has done well in US tournaments recently and looks like he's got plenty of upside, but if Rublev is on his game he could win in two. Three sets wouldn't surprise me though in all honesty.

As for Diego, instinctively I'd rather back Harris. Yes he didn't look great in the first set against Eubanks but he responded well and in these conditions he should be hard to break. He returned well against Eubanks as well and Diego isn't the biggest server. If Gaio could get into Diego's service games I don't see why Harris can't, so this looks likely to go the distance as Diego is probably the better player but Harris has the serving advantage. 

[four-leaf]

41 minutes ago, Torque said:

The Rublev pick should have a chance as this is the sort of tournament the Russian has been flying through and winning the last couple of years, but he'll have to serve much better than he has done recently. Against Tiafoe at the US Open for example, his second serve was a total liability and took a pasting and he also had a nasty habit of double-faulting at important times - sometimes his first serve percentage is too low as well and that creates pressure. Nakashima has done well in US tournaments recently and looks like he's got plenty of upside, but if Rublev is on his game he could win in two. Three sets wouldn't surprise me though in all honesty.

As for Diego, instinctively I'd rather back Harris. Yes he didn't look great in the first set against Eubanks but he responded well and in these conditions he should be hard to break. He returned well against Eubanks as well and Diego isn't the biggest server. If Gaio could get into Diego's service games I don't see why Harris can't, so this looks likely to go the distance as Diego is probably the better player but Harris has the serving advantage. 

Pretty mutch my own thoughts about Diego and russian second best. 3 sets between Harris and Diego is not surprising to see.

[four-leaf]

Taylor Fritz to beat Denis Shapovalov at 2.38 with Unibet

Denis Shapovalov has been a complete disaster since reaching the SW19 semis and up first for Denis in San Diego is Fritz, who trails the head-to-head series 3-1.

However, the American won their most recent meeting earlier this year on the hard courts of Doha by 5-7, 6-3, 7-5. Fritz wasn’t great this summer, but he at least managed to reach semifinals in Los Cabos and Atlanta. He hails from southern California, too, so the crowd will be behind him in a big way. This is a good opportunity for Fritz to take advantage of a struggling opponent and pull off an upset.

[four-leaf]

Vondrousova is a pure goldmine tonight...

 

[CzechPunter]

Mai Hontama (+6.5) to beat Garbine Muguruza at 1.85 with Pinnacle

Hontama going through a patch at the moment and, while she should finally fall against Muguruza, I think the handicap is a bit on the higher side. She can play well, her wins over Garcia and then Rogers were no flukes, it's only if she can hold her nerves together.

[lelit]

Do you also have problems with wtatv.com?

[CzechPunter]

They've changed the website and you need to reset your password. At least I know I had to.

[CzechPunter]

Close with Hontama, but not enough. Muguruza is vulnerable, but the odds on Vondrousova will need to increase for me to take them!

[four-leaf]

15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Close with Hontama, but not enough. Muguruza is vulnerable, but the odds on Vondrousova will need to increase for me to take them!

What price would you like on Marketa?

[CzechPunter]

2.35+

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

2.35+

I have found 2.40 at Coolbet

[mark22]

Sinner - Krajinovic; Krajinovic +4 games HC @1.65 with Marathonbet

Young Italian defends title from last year, but he didn´t convince me this time. He was behind in both sets against Duckworth, but managed to get close 2:0 win. His numbers on service games are not that high like when he´s in top form. Krajinovic had 2 great matches here, yesterday he lost set against Majchrzak, but still showed good performance in 3rd set. He had some very good results on hard indoor in last years and I think he has chances today to at least cover HC.

Vesely - Laaksonen 1 @2.08 with WWin

Both players got some big wins this week and probably winner of this match will take the title in Orleans. As in Sofia court is fast here and this is advantage for tall Czech. Yesterday he beat Gasquet, he serves many aces and ends points quickly. Laaksonen will not get many BP I suppose and for me he is not favorite. 2 years back they played in simillar match on CH in France and Vesely got an easy win. He can repeat this today if his performance stays on the same level-

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter Coolbet removed Vondrousova now. Don't know why but could be that they thought they had the wrong price.

[CzechPunter]

Vondrousova withdrew.

[four-leaf]

Just now, CzechPunter said:

Vondrousova withdrew.

Just saw it on wtatennis.com so that explains

[four-leaf]

[four-leaf]

Thanasi Kokkinakis to beat (-1.5 games) Stefano Travaglia at 1.76 with Coolbet

Thanasi is cruising this week. No set lost yet this week and he seems like he wants this title. Stefano has been struggling badly last two matches so this should be the end of the road for him.

[darko08]

Rublev to win the ATP San Diego at 1.83 with bet365

Rublev will play against Norrie in the SFs and then he will play against Ruud or Dimitrov. I haven't much to say. Rublev has destroyed Nakashima (6-2, 6-1) and Schwartzmann (6-1, 7-5). I also have seen Norrie a little bit, and I have to say that I saw him really well. He has beat Koepfer, Evans and Shapo without dropping a single set, but he came here from a 4 losing streak and I think Rublev is just playing too good right now. I'm not worried for that big win over Shapo cause the canadian has been a mess since Wimbledon and now he's free falling. As I said, if Rublev beats Norrie he will face Dimitrov or Ruud. Ruud is the favorite player according to the odds. He has improved a lot on this surface but it's important to remark that his favorite surface is clay and he has never played an ATP final on hard. Regardless of who wins that match Rublev will be the big favorite.

Edited October 2, 2021 by darko08

[Torque]

Rublev still has a long way to go. First serve numbers not good enough - which has been a problem for a long time - and lacking on the mental side as well. I don't see any game intelligence at all it's just see ball, hit ball - which because he has talent is enough to win a lot of tournaments but it's not going to be enough if he wants to make the most of his potential. Severely lacking at the net as well, both in terms of when to come in and also volleying. With all those deficiencies it's incredible he's ranked where he is.

Edited October 2, 2021 by Torque

[darko08]

18 hours ago, Torque said:

Rublev still has a long way to go. First serve numbers not good enough - which has been a problem for a long time - and lacking on the mental side as well. I don't see any game intelligence at all it's just see ball, hit ball - which because he has talent is enough to win a lot of tournaments but it's not going to be enough if he wants to make the most of his potential. Severely lacking at the net as well, both in terms of when to come in and also volleying. With all those deficiencies it's incredible he's ranked where he is.

2 ATP Masters Finals (Montecarlo and Cincinnati), 2 ATP 500 Finals (Rotterdam and Halle), 1 ATP Masters SF (Miami), 1 ATP 500 SF (Dubai), 1 ATP 250 SF (Doha), QFs in the AO, etc. That's the answer to your last question. Winning matches and titles is how you get a good ranking, as simple as that.

The reason why he lost yesterday had nothing to do with serve stats. Actually, his serve stats were better than Norrie's stats (more aces, less double faults and a better % on points won with 1st and 2nd serve,...). Rublev destroyed Norrie in the 1st set. Rublev won that set 6-3 but it could have been 6-1 (Rublev wasted 3 BPs when he was already leading the set 4-1). The game that changed it all was the 3rd game of the 2nd set. Rublev had 3 BPs to took the lead of the 2nd set (and most likely, to finish the match), but he wasted all of them. Wasting all those break opportunities provoked 2 things. 1. Rublev lost his mind. 2. Norrie started to believe on himself and he increased his game considerably. It's just incredible how just a single game can change the outcome of a whole match. But that's what happened.

Actually, these completely unexpected twists occur on all kind of sports. I'm not an expert on soccer but I also watch some soccer matches occasionally. Today I have seen Bayern Munich playing against Eintracht Frankfurt. Bayern players were attacking constantly and they took the lead in the 1st half. Well..., they have lost the match (1-2). I guess their victory was at 1.09-1.10 or something like that. Imagine how frustrating had to be that match for all those bettors who had Bayern to win it!