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Racing chat-Saturday 9th january


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I'm being brave next weekend ....got the 2 x 33pt rollover bets from last weekend ....I could just pick a small race but I've got a better chance of picking a big priced winner in the big races so I'm gonna go for it ......first race I'm currently looking at is the rescheduled welsh national .......Ive passed it through the computer and I have ......

The two amigos    355 

Christmas in April  345 

Cloudy glen    341 

Well ......that seems pretty cut and dry .....what's anyones opinions on top 2 here ....especially 2 amigos....do you think hes worth putting up as the rollover bet given theres 19runners....gulp .....christmas in april is no mug though ....and looks a good type for this sort of race ...?

Currently 2 amigos is around  10/1 ...so that would be a 360 odd pt return bet 

 

**** update.....first of the 33pt rollover bets from last week .....given the ground is heavy I'm going 25pt win at 16.5  betfair on THE TWO AMIGOS which I think is an incredible price ....and an 8pt saver on CHRISTMAS IN APRIL ..AT 11.5 at betfair ....I'm happy with those bets and as its bookies money really as I  recouped my original stake it's a shot to nothing in my eyes 

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On 1/6/2021 at 8:38 AM, richard-westwood said:

The other race I'm considering as the 2nd bet saturday is the lanzarote hurdle but I've rated the current top 20 runners as 

One true king  377+

Shang tang  374

Shinobi   370 

Just cant decide currently between these top two .....one true king might go off fav currently around 7 or 8 .....he destroyed a 2 mile field scoring 138rpr .....that was good for another 8pts so I'd put him on 146......his official rating will be 132 saturday I think so on paper hes a absolutely thrown in (stone to the good ) ....but will have to travel 5f further and that's a big factor 

Shang tang isnt really lighting up the track but has been performing well in some tough races .....will like the ground.. ..gets the distance and trainer has stated that improvement is not impossible ......

Yiu can see the dilemma ....proven horse ??...or up and coming star trying something new .....??

Didn't want to split the stake but might have to have a small saver bet in this race but still gotta pick the main bet though .....cant decide 

2nd of the 33pt rollover bets .....decided after much deliberation to trust the ratings and go 25pt win 13/2 ONE TRUE KING with 888....and an 8pt saver on SHANG TANG AT 12.5 on betfair .....I'm happy with those rollover bets ...the rest is down to luck 

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Going to post all my selections today as I've got bit more time off the weekend. Bog early prices where available.

1130 Lingfield subliminal 11/4 bet365 win

105 Lingfield make it rain 2-1 bet Victor (may wish to wait till tomorrow for bog) win

140 Lingfield torochica 16-1 Ladbrokes ew

215 Lingfield autumn war 7.4 Betfair exchange win

250 Lingfield corizan espinado 4-1 ladbrokes ew

325 Lingfield invincible Larne 2-1 Ladbrokes win

129 Chelmsford el hombre 5-2 bet 365 win

204 Chelmsford Bernie's boy Betfair sp ew

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Welsh  National

Glad to see this rescheduled. Cracking contest  going to be a long slog wude open very hard to be very confident of anything in this. Small e/w  plays for me on BIG RIVER 18/1 5 places  1/5 BOG corals  & outsider of the pack low weight  could run a cracker or a shocker depends what  mod he is in will back tomorow   hopeing too get 6p bog 50/1 fingers crossed, May play another one if i can get 5or 6 places bog and 14/1 or over on LORD DU MENSIL.

 

Edited by Tedthewolf
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todays top rated selections

CHEPSTOW 13:58 Ask Me Early 5/2 win

CHELMSFORD CITY 14:34 Revolutionise 9/4 win

CHELMSFORD CITY 15:04 Assimilation 7/2

CHEPSTOW 15:10 Vieux Lion Rouge 22/1 e/w 6 Places


another one I fancy is CHEPSTOW 15:10 Calipso Collonges 25/1 6 Places (in the long handicap I think?, no racing post today).
 
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All prices Bet365:

Good luck all - a good day of racing:

12.05 Kempton - 2pts win Tinnahalla @ 6/1

I really fancy this one today after a very promising run around Newbury on hurdling debut. Finished behind Kentucky Hardboot that day but not by a great deal and that one had the benefit of hurdling experience. Tinnahalla was very keen on the front end throughout but still looked a possible winner until quite late on and should come on plenty for that. This track should suit that style better as it won't be as testing at the finish and I think will turn that form around today. 

12.25 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Iron Mike @ 14/1

On To Victory will be tricky to beat if jumping round but Iron Mike sits at an attractive price as I think he has rock solid place credentials at the least. Shaped well in a couple of decent novices over further since switching to this code, travelling well before fading late on but I'd say 2 miles on decentish ground could be his making and I had him down as the winner if he could have stayed upright last time out. Is only decent on the flat but you can say the same about Leylak who is 9/4 here so at the prices I like Nick Mitchell's charge.

12.50 Wincanton - 3pts win Farrants Way @ 10/3

Looks a really lovely type who ought to keep on improving with racing. Is a big, inexperienced sort who's forte is clearly stamina and ran a cracker up against experienced handicappers at Sandown last time. Was up there throughout and despite his jumping letting him down in the straight, he kept galloping all the way to the line. Conditions will suit and I'm certain there's more to come so a strong fancy. 

12.58 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Lex Talionis @ 12/1

Weak race and I think Lex Talionis is being overlooked having flopped on heavy ground when last seen. However, he was sent off favourite that day and will relish the return to better ground today. Was second two starts back and also ran really well on his first start for this new yard in a much better race than this one before that. Handy mark, conditions suit and there are some question marks over several of the others so looks overpriced.

1.10 Kempton - 2pts win Pistol Whipped @ 5/1

Is lightly raced but goes well fresh and I think still has scope off this mark. This track can suit his somewhat exuberant style and there wasn't a great deal wrong with his form when last seen. Was a comfortable winner before running as well as could be expected against higher rated rivals here considering he pulled hard throughout. Fell at the first next time and then finished midfield in a hot race when last seen. Freshened up here I think he can get back on track. 

2.50 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Kumasi @ 12/1

Ran in amongst some smart horses in all-weather novice races last year and on that evidence a mark of 72 wouldn't be beyond this one. Ran off 75 on handicap debut after a lengthy absence at Newcastle last month, only fading late on to not be beaten far. Has been dropped 3lbs since that and a flop at Southwell but that's not uncommon so I think back on this surface can go well today with blinkers on too.

3.10 Chepstow - 1pt e/w Big River @ 20/1

Is an out and out stayer who is generally fairly consistent and this is going to be a real slog which ought to play to his strengths. Ran a sound prep run at Cheltenham when last seen and he's gone well in both starts over 4 miles previously. His jumping doesn't always stand up to the test but in a war of attrition, I'd like to be on one who I know won't be wanting for stamina so at 20/1 looks worth a go.

3.30 Kempton - 1pt e/w Everglow @ 17/2

Proving easy to back but there's lots to like about his profile and everything should be set for a big run here. His jumping will need to hold up in this big field but has done little wrong in five runs to date including a sound run behind a 145-rated horse two starts back (only beaten around 5 lengths) and then won really well at Ascot last time despite still looking a bit green. A mark of 126 looks well within his grasp and with further improvement on the cards ought to go close.

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A few outsiders 

11.30 lingfield Henry Croft 30/1 5places  :wall

13.05 lingfield luckys dream 15/2 3plces   :nana:nanawinner

13.40 lingfield central city 14/1 :wall

14.50 lingfield agent of fortune 14/1 4places :wall

15.25 lingfield Zulu zander 9/1 :wall

13.30 wincanton thunderstruck 15/2 4 places :wall

15.45 wincanton jackson hill 10-1 :nana:nanawinner

3.10 Chepstow cloudy glen 20/1:wall

all bets 50p e/w ??? bet365 

Edited by LEE-GRAYS
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It would seem that I have been left with the dregs for my non handicap favourite selections today.  I remember that @Trotteronce questioned whether a favourite in a low class race was possibly just as good as a favourite in a high class race.  I believe that @MCLARKEthen provided statistics to show that the classier favourite horses do better than their low class counterparts.  Never mind.  I will console myself with the knowledge that the classiest favourites usually face tougher opposition than their lower class counterparts.  Nevertheless, some fine tipping by my opponent today.

11.45 Chep Champagne Rhythm one point win at 9/4 with Bet365.  Let's hope that it doesn't get stuffed by yet another Paul Nichols runner.  £5.30 win at 9/4 actual bet.

12.00 Ling Who Cares Wins one point win at 15/8 with Betvictor.  Let's hope that Hollie Doyle works her magic.  £6 win at 7/4 actual bet

2.30 Chep Easy As That one point win at 2/1 with Bet365. Hoping that Venetia has this one well prepped for the heavy going on the course that she is famous for. £6.20 win at 15/8

I have had a fun bet in the in the 12.35 at Kempton £2 win on Barbadous Bucks at 2.9; £1.50 win on Under Supervision at 13/2 and 50p win at 10/1 on Welsh Castle.

Total singles stakes today are £21.50

Three cheers for all the staff at Chepstow who worked so hard to ensure that racing went ahead there.  It looks as though we are all in for a real treat today with so much good racing fur us to see.

As usual the very best of luck to all punters having a go at trying to make some money with their betting today

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Going to post all my selections today as I've got bit more time off the weekend. Bog early prices where available.

1130 Lingfield subliminal 11/4 bet365 win narrow 2nd ;-(

105 Lingfield make it rain 2-1 bet Victor (may wish to wait till tomorrow for bog) win unplaced.

140 Lingfield torochica 16-1 Ladbrokes ew won at nice price ?

215 Lingfield autumn war 7.4 Betfair exchange win non runner

250 Lingfield corizan espinado 4-1 ladbrokes ew won nicely

325 Lingfield invincible Larne 2-1 Ladbrokes win narrow 2nd 

129 Chelmsford el hombre 5-2 bet 365 win 2nd 

204 Chelmsford Bernie's boy Betfair sp ew unplaced

Results and update. 

Torochica won for nice win overall now and corizan came in. Unlucky with subliminal who needed another few yards and invincible was also mean

Edited by Wildgarden
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9 minutes ago, peanut peanut said:

Wincanton 1.30- Take your Time @ 4/1 sky

To weight for a reason 

I have a share in Take Your Time my only real concern is if he jumps like he did at Chepstow in December,  Paul does think hes ironed it out and jumping has improved but doing it well at home and at the track are different matters   decent jockey booking of Harry Skelton      fingers crossed his jumping was just a bad day at the office last time

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ITV Picks
1310 Kempton - 14 The Bay Birch - 3rd
1325 Chepstow - 4 Houx Gris  -  3rd
1345 Kempton - 15 Rocco  - 8th
1405 Wincanton - 3 Messire Des Obeaux  - WON SP: 9/4
1420 Kempton - 5 McFabulous  -  WON SP: 10/11
1435 Wincanton - 3 Capeland  -  WON SP: 6/1
1455 Kempton - 1 Imperial Aura - Fell at 2nd fence
1510 Chepstow - 4 Lord Du Mesnil  - 9th
1530 Kempton - 6 Glynn  - Pulled Up
1545 Wincanton - 2 Molineaux - 2nd

Other Selections
1540 Chelmsford - 7 Bad Atttitude - 6th
1555 Chepstow - 4 Poniente  - 2nd
1557 Kempton - 9 Nordican Bleue  - DNF
1715 Chelmsford - 5 Eyes  - WON SP: 13/8

Edited by ipswich45
results being added
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Jan +3

1pt level stakes win only 

12.50 Chep Oscar Asche 33/1 Lost

13.10 Kem Theinval 14/1 Lost

15.10 Chep Prime Venture 11/1 Lost

*15.10 Chep The Hollow Ginge 28/1 Lost

15.10 Chep Ramses de Teillee 22/1 Lost

Prices as of now b365

*Nap 13.30 Win Martha Brae 28/1 b365Lost 

* additions 

-6

Jan -3 

 

 

 

Edited by roger2256
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12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
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It would seem that I have been left with the dregs for my non handicap favourite selections today.  I remember that @Trotteronce questioned whether a favourite in a low class race was possibly just as good as a favourite in a high class race.  I believe that @MCLARKEthen provided statistics to show that the classier favourite horses do better than their low class counterparts.  Never mind.  I will console myself with the knowledge that the classiest favourites usually face tougher opposition than their lower class counterparts.  Nevertheless, some fine tipping by my opponent today.

11.45 Chep Champagne Rhythm one point win at 9/4 with Bet365.  Let's hope that it doesn't get stuffed by yet another Paul Nichols runner.  £5.30 win at 9/4 actual bet.

12.00 Ling Who Cares Wins one point win at 15/8 with Betvictor.  Let's hope that Hollie Doyle works her magic.  £6 win at 7/4 actual bet

2.30 Chep Easy As That one point win at 2/1 with Bet365. Hoping that Venetia has this one well prepped for the heavy going on the course that she is famous for. £6.20 win at 15/8

I have had a fun bet in the in the 12.35 at Kempton £2 win on Barbadous Bucks at 2.9; £1.50 win on Under Supervision at 13/2 and 50p win at 10/1 on Welsh Castle.

Total singles stakes today are £21.50

Three cheers for all the staff at Chepstow who worked so hard to ensure that racing went ahead there.  It looks as though we are all in for a real treat today with so much good racing fur us to see.

As usual the very best of luck to all punters having a go at trying to make some money with their betting today

 

 

 

Bad day so far.  The only regret I have is that I did not have an insurance bet on Pozo Emery in the 11.45 at Chepstow.  Stupid of me when I considered this one to be the main threat.

Never mind.  I am now having £8.00 to win on another horse I considered earlier.  This is At Your Service in the 4.45 at Chelmsford at 6/4.  It has drifted slightly beuause of money pouring in for the Mick Appleby runner Your Choice.  Whether this is one will win I don't know but I will have a small saver of £1.70 on Arnoul Of Metz at 5/1 

===========================================================================================================

What a horrible day for the fancied runners in the non handicap races; even at Kempton.

My main three contenders in the KO cup all failed to win.  Very interesting.  This has taught me to narrow down a race to a main selection choice and, if I feel that there is one other major player then have an insurance bet on that.  Where, it appears that there are two/three etc dangers, just to leave the race alone.  I suppose I felt obliged to back all my fancies but that was a big mistake.

Oddly enough it was a class 6 selection that mitigated my losses.  My fun bet also produced a small profit.  I staked in total £31.20 and had a return of £25.72 so a small loss on the day of £5.48.  This brings my balance to £533.78 (£500 Bank) so no harm done.

Only three non handicap races in the UK tomorrow.  Funny enough they all seem to have short priced favourites along with a main challenger at short odds too. Judging on the forecast prices it looks as though it will simply not pay to back one and have another as an insurance bet.  Why take a risk when there is no profit to be made?

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I'm being brave next weekend ....got the 2 x 33pt rollover bets from last weekend ....I could just pick a small race but I've got a better chance of picking a big priced winner in the big races so I'm gonna go for it ......first race I'm currently looking at is the rescheduled welsh national .......Ive passed it through the computer and I have ......

The two amigos    355 

Christmas in April  345 

Cloudy glen    341 

Well ......that seems pretty cut and dry .....what's anyones opinions on top 2 here ....especially 2 amigos....do you think hes worth putting up as the rollover bet given theres 19runners....gulp .....christmas in april is no mug though ....and looks a good type for this sort of race ...?

Currently 2 amigos is around  10/1 ...so that would be a 360 odd pt return bet 

 

**** update.....first of the 33pt rollover bets from last week .....given the ground is heavy I'm going 25pt win at 16.5  betfair on THE TWO AMIGOS which I think is an incredible price ....and an 8pt saver on CHRISTMAS IN APRIL ..AT 11.5 at betfair ....I'm happy with those bets and as its bookies money really as I  recouped my original stake it's a shot to nothing in my eyes 

2nd ......nooooooooooo

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4 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

A few outsiders 

11.30 lingfield Henry Croft 30/1 5places  :wall

13.05 lingfield luckys dream 15/2 3plces   :nana:nanawinner

13.40 lingfield central city 14/1 :wall

14.50 lingfield agent of fortune 14/1 4places :wall

15.25 lingfield Zulu zander 9/1 :wall

13.30 wincanton thunderstruck 15/2 4 places :wall

15.45 wincanton jackson hill 10-1 :nana:nanawinner

3.10 Chepstow cloudy glen 20/1:wall

all bets 50p e/w ??? bet365 

another good day 

out £8

in £12.94

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5 hours ago, ipswich45 said:

ITV Picks
1310 Kempton - 14 The Bay Birch - 3rd
1325 Chepstow - 4 Houx Gris  -  3rd
1345 Kempton - 15 Rocco  - 8th
1405 Wincanton - 3 Messire Des Obeaux  - WON SP: 9/4
1420 Kempton - 5 McFabulous  -  WON SP: 10/11
1435 Wincanton - 3 Capeland  -  WON SP: 6/1
1455 Kempton - 1 Imperial Aura - Fell at 2nd fence
1510 Chepstow - 4 Lord Du Mesnil  - 9th
1530 Kempton - 6 Glynn  - Pulled Up
1545 Wincanton - 2 Molineaux - 2nd

Other Selections
1540 Chelmsford - 7 Bad Atttitude - 6th
1555 Chepstow - 4 Poniente  - 2nd
1557 Kempton - 9 Nordican Bleue  - DNF
1715 Chelmsford - 5 Eyes  - WON SP: 13/8

Fairly decent afternoon of results  4 winners  and a couple of the place runners on another day would have won 

congratulations to Daryl Jacob on his 5 timer at Wincanton and Paul Nicholls who appears to have settled with 8 wins today

Edited by ipswich45
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2 hours ago, ipswich45 said:

congratulations to Daryl Jacob on his 5 timer at Wincanton and Paul Nicholls who appears to have settled with 8 wins today

It was a good day for Nicholls with 7 winners but again the TV pundits went over the top claiming he had a 10,000 to 1 accumulator, omitting the fact that he had 20 runners on the day. Perhaps I wasn't very receptive because I'd picked his GLAJOU as my nap which was rubbish.

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13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

It was a good day for Nicholls with 7 winners but again the TV pundits went over the top claiming he had a 10,000 to 1 accumulator, omitting the fact that he had 20 runners on the day. Perhaps I wasn't very receptive because I'd picked his GLAJOU as my nap which was rubbish.

Yep utter nonsense . Click bait crap at its best . If you had requested that he have 7 winners on the day I’m sure your odds would have been much less than 10000/1, but they have ignored the other 13 runners that didn’t come in for him. Either way it’s a great day for him, and continues his good form. Does he do well at the Cheltenham festival, usually? He seems less festival orientated than Henderson does. 

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