richard-westwood Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I'm being brave next weekend ....got the 2 x 33pt rollover bets from last weekend ....I could just pick a small race but I've got a better chance of picking a big priced winner in the big races so I'm gonna go for it ......first race I'm currently looking at is the rescheduled welsh national .......Ive passed it through the computer and I have ...... The two amigos 355 Christmas in April 345 Cloudy glen 341 Well ......that seems pretty cut and dry .....what's anyones opinions on top 2 here ....especially 2 amigos....do you think hes worth putting up as the rollover bet given theres 19runners....gulp .....christmas in april is no mug though ....and looks a good type for this sort of race ...? Currently 2 amigos is around 10/1 ...so that would be a 360 odd pt return bet **** update.....first of the 33pt rollover bets from last week .....given the ground is heavy I'm going 25pt win at 16.5 betfair on THE TWO AMIGOS which I think is an incredible price ....and an 8pt saver on CHRISTMAS IN APRIL ..AT 11.5 at betfair ....I'm happy with those bets and as its bookies money really as I recouped my original stake it's a shot to nothing in my eyes Wildgarden and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 8:38 AM, richard-westwood said: The other race I'm considering as the 2nd bet saturday is the lanzarote hurdle but I've rated the current top 20 runners as One true king 377+ Shang tang 374 Shinobi 370 Just cant decide currently between these top two .....one true king might go off fav currently around 7 or 8 .....he destroyed a 2 mile field scoring 138rpr .....that was good for another 8pts so I'd put him on 146......his official rating will be 132 saturday I think so on paper hes a absolutely thrown in (stone to the good ) ....but will have to travel 5f further and that's a big factor Shang tang isnt really lighting up the track but has been performing well in some tough races .....will like the ground.. ..gets the distance and trainer has stated that improvement is not impossible ...... Yiu can see the dilemma ....proven horse ??...or up and coming star trying something new .....?? Didn't want to split the stake but might have to have a small saver bet in this race but still gotta pick the main bet though .....cant decide 2nd of the 33pt rollover bets .....decided after much deliberation to trust the ratings and go 25pt win 13/2 ONE TRUE KING with 888....and an 8pt saver on SHANG TANG AT 12.5 on betfair .....I'm happy with those rollover bets ...the rest is down to luck Villa Chris, Wildgarden, vikki37 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Going to post all my selections today as I've got bit more time off the weekend. Bog early prices where available. 1130 Lingfield subliminal 11/4 bet365 win 105 Lingfield make it rain 2-1 bet Victor (may wish to wait till tomorrow for bog) win 140 Lingfield torochica 16-1 Ladbrokes ew 215 Lingfield autumn war 7.4 Betfair exchange win 250 Lingfield corizan espinado 4-1 ladbrokes ew 325 Lingfield invincible Larne 2-1 Ladbrokes win 129 Chelmsford el hombre 5-2 bet 365 win 204 Chelmsford Bernie's boy Betfair sp ew The Equaliser and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 (edited) Welsh National Glad to see this rescheduled. Cracking contest going to be a long slog wude open very hard to be very confident of anything in this. Small e/w plays for me on BIG RIVER 18/1 5 places 1/5 BOG corals & outsider of the pack low weight could run a cracker or a shocker depends what mod he is in will back tomorow hopeing too get 6p bog 50/1 fingers crossed, May play another one if i can get 5or 6 places bog and 14/1 or over on LORD DU MENSIL. Edited January 8, 2021 by Tedthewolf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Two e/w 7 places not bog for me in the Lanzarote CASHEL MAN 28/1 & HUNTERS CALL 11/1 the later looks to have solid form while the former is much better than shown of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 The Lanzarote will be a hard race to nail. I won’t be playing but I like Amour De Nuit at 11/1. Is in good form and still on a capable mark with a in form claimer taking off 7Ibs Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alancraik Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 todays top rated selections CHEPSTOW 13:58 Ask Me Early 5/2 win CHELMSFORD CITY 14:34 Revolutionise 9/4 win CHELMSFORD CITY 15:04 Assimilation 7/2 CHEPSTOW 15:10 Vieux Lion Rouge 22/1 e/w 6 Places another one I fancy is CHEPSTOW 15:10 Calipso Collonges 25/1 6 Places (in the long handicap I think?, no racing post today). Top Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 All prices Bet365: Good luck all - a good day of racing: 12.05 Kempton - 2pts win Tinnahalla @ 6/1 I really fancy this one today after a very promising run around Newbury on hurdling debut. Finished behind Kentucky Hardboot that day but not by a great deal and that one had the benefit of hurdling experience. Tinnahalla was very keen on the front end throughout but still looked a possible winner until quite late on and should come on plenty for that. This track should suit that style better as it won't be as testing at the finish and I think will turn that form around today. 12.25 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Iron Mike @ 14/1 On To Victory will be tricky to beat if jumping round but Iron Mike sits at an attractive price as I think he has rock solid place credentials at the least. Shaped well in a couple of decent novices over further since switching to this code, travelling well before fading late on but I'd say 2 miles on decentish ground could be his making and I had him down as the winner if he could have stayed upright last time out. Is only decent on the flat but you can say the same about Leylak who is 9/4 here so at the prices I like Nick Mitchell's charge. 12.50 Wincanton - 3pts win Farrants Way @ 10/3 Looks a really lovely type who ought to keep on improving with racing. Is a big, inexperienced sort who's forte is clearly stamina and ran a cracker up against experienced handicappers at Sandown last time. Was up there throughout and despite his jumping letting him down in the straight, he kept galloping all the way to the line. Conditions will suit and I'm certain there's more to come so a strong fancy. 12.58 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Lex Talionis @ 12/1 Weak race and I think Lex Talionis is being overlooked having flopped on heavy ground when last seen. However, he was sent off favourite that day and will relish the return to better ground today. Was second two starts back and also ran really well on his first start for this new yard in a much better race than this one before that. Handy mark, conditions suit and there are some question marks over several of the others so looks overpriced. 1.10 Kempton - 2pts win Pistol Whipped @ 5/1 Is lightly raced but goes well fresh and I think still has scope off this mark. This track can suit his somewhat exuberant style and there wasn't a great deal wrong with his form when last seen. Was a comfortable winner before running as well as could be expected against higher rated rivals here considering he pulled hard throughout. Fell at the first next time and then finished midfield in a hot race when last seen. Freshened up here I think he can get back on track. 2.50 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Kumasi @ 12/1 Ran in amongst some smart horses in all-weather novice races last year and on that evidence a mark of 72 wouldn't be beyond this one. Ran off 75 on handicap debut after a lengthy absence at Newcastle last month, only fading late on to not be beaten far. Has been dropped 3lbs since that and a flop at Southwell but that's not uncommon so I think back on this surface can go well today with blinkers on too. 3.10 Chepstow - 1pt e/w Big River @ 20/1 Is an out and out stayer who is generally fairly consistent and this is going to be a real slog which ought to play to his strengths. Ran a sound prep run at Cheltenham when last seen and he's gone well in both starts over 4 miles previously. His jumping doesn't always stand up to the test but in a war of attrition, I'd like to be on one who I know won't be wanting for stamina so at 20/1 looks worth a go. 3.30 Kempton - 1pt e/w Everglow @ 17/2 Proving easy to back but there's lots to like about his profile and everything should be set for a big run here. His jumping will need to hold up in this big field but has done little wrong in five runs to date including a sound run behind a 145-rated horse two starts back (only beaten around 5 lengths) and then won really well at Ascot last time despite still looking a bit green. A mark of 126 looks well within his grasp and with further improvement on the cards ought to go close. The Equaliser and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) A few outsiders 11.30 lingfield Henry Croft 30/1 5places 13.05 lingfield luckys dream 15/2 3plces winner 13.40 lingfield central city 14/1 14.50 lingfield agent of fortune 14/1 4places 15.25 lingfield Zulu zander 9/1 13.30 wincanton thunderstruck 15/2 4 places 15.45 wincanton jackson hill 10-1 winner 3.10 Chepstow cloudy glen 20/1 all bets 50p e/w ??? bet365 Edited January 9, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS The Equaliser, The Brigadier and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 New Members 281 1631 posts Posted just now on Sir Puntalot re the KO Cup It would seem that I have been left with the dregs for my non handicap favourite selections today. I remember that @Trotteronce questioned whether a favourite in a low class race was possibly just as good as a favourite in a high class race. I believe that @MCLARKEthen provided statistics to show that the classier favourite horses do better than their low class counterparts. Never mind. I will console myself with the knowledge that the classiest favourites usually face tougher opposition than their lower class counterparts. Nevertheless, some fine tipping by my opponent today. 11.45 Chep Champagne Rhythm one point win at 9/4 with Bet365. Let's hope that it doesn't get stuffed by yet another Paul Nichols runner. £5.30 win at 9/4 actual bet. 12.00 Ling Who Cares Wins one point win at 15/8 with Betvictor. Let's hope that Hollie Doyle works her magic. £6 win at 7/4 actual bet 2.30 Chep Easy As That one point win at 2/1 with Bet365. Hoping that Venetia has this one well prepped for the heavy going on the course that she is famous for. £6.20 win at 15/8 I have had a fun bet in the in the 12.35 at Kempton £2 win on Barbadous Bucks at 2.9; £1.50 win on Under Supervision at 13/2 and 50p win at 10/1 on Welsh Castle. Total singles stakes today are £21.50 Three cheers for all the staff at Chepstow who worked so hard to ensure that racing went ahead there. It looks as though we are all in for a real treat today with so much good racing fur us to see. As usual the very best of luck to all punters having a go at trying to make some money with their betting today MCLARKE and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) 21 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Going to post all my selections today as I've got bit more time off the weekend. Bog early prices where available. 1130 Lingfield subliminal 11/4 bet365 win narrow 2nd ;-( 105 Lingfield make it rain 2-1 bet Victor (may wish to wait till tomorrow for bog) win unplaced. 140 Lingfield torochica 16-1 Ladbrokes ew won at nice price ? 215 Lingfield autumn war 7.4 Betfair exchange win non runner 250 Lingfield corizan espinado 4-1 ladbrokes ew won nicely 325 Lingfield invincible Larne 2-1 Ladbrokes win narrow 2nd 129 Chelmsford el hombre 5-2 bet 365 win 2nd 204 Chelmsford Bernie's boy Betfair sp ew unplaced Results and update. Torochica won for nice win overall now and corizan came in. Unlucky with subliminal who needed another few yards and invincible was also mean Edited January 9, 2021 by Wildgarden The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peanut peanut Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Wincanton 1.30- Take your Time @ 4/1 sky To weight for a reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipswich45 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, peanut peanut said: Wincanton 1.30- Take your Time @ 4/1 sky To weight for a reason I have a share in Take Your Time my only real concern is if he jumps like he did at Chepstow in December, Paul does think hes ironed it out and jumping has improved but doing it well at home and at the track are different matters decent jockey booking of Harry Skelton fingers crossed his jumping was just a bad day at the office last time peanut peanut 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipswich45 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) ITV Picks 1310 Kempton - 14 The Bay Birch - 3rd 1325 Chepstow - 4 Houx Gris - 3rd 1345 Kempton - 15 Rocco - 8th 1405 Wincanton - 3 Messire Des Obeaux - WON SP: 9/4 1420 Kempton - 5 McFabulous - WON SP: 10/11 1435 Wincanton - 3 Capeland - WON SP: 6/1 1455 Kempton - 1 Imperial Aura - Fell at 2nd fence 1510 Chepstow - 4 Lord Du Mesnil - 9th 1530 Kempton - 6 Glynn - Pulled Up 1545 Wincanton - 2 Molineaux - 2nd Other Selections 1540 Chelmsford - 7 Bad Atttitude - 6th 1555 Chepstow - 4 Poniente - 2nd 1557 Kempton - 9 Nordican Bleue - DNF 1715 Chelmsford - 5 Eyes - WON SP: 13/8 Edited January 9, 2021 by ipswich45 results being added The Brigadier, Wildgarden and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger2256 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) Jan +3 1pt level stakes win only 12.50 Chep Oscar Asche 33/1 Lost 13.10 Kem Theinval 14/1 Lost 15.10 Chep Prime Venture 11/1 Lost *15.10 Chep The Hollow Ginge 28/1 Lost 15.10 Chep Ramses de Teillee 22/1 Lost Prices as of now b365 *Nap 13.30 Win Martha Brae 28/1 b365Lost * additions -6 Jan -3 Edited January 10, 2021 by roger2256 Result The Equaliser and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, The Equaliser said: New Members 281 1631 posts Posted just now on Sir Puntalot re the KO Cup It would seem that I have been left with the dregs for my non handicap favourite selections today. I remember that @Trotteronce questioned whether a favourite in a low class race was possibly just as good as a favourite in a high class race. I believe that @MCLARKEthen provided statistics to show that the classier favourite horses do better than their low class counterparts. Never mind. I will console myself with the knowledge that the classiest favourites usually face tougher opposition than their lower class counterparts. Nevertheless, some fine tipping by my opponent today. 11.45 Chep Champagne Rhythm one point win at 9/4 with Bet365. Let's hope that it doesn't get stuffed by yet another Paul Nichols runner. £5.30 win at 9/4 actual bet. 12.00 Ling Who Cares Wins one point win at 15/8 with Betvictor. Let's hope that Hollie Doyle works her magic. £6 win at 7/4 actual bet 2.30 Chep Easy As That one point win at 2/1 with Bet365. Hoping that Venetia has this one well prepped for the heavy going on the course that she is famous for. £6.20 win at 15/8 I have had a fun bet in the in the 12.35 at Kempton £2 win on Barbadous Bucks at 2.9; £1.50 win on Under Supervision at 13/2 and 50p win at 10/1 on Welsh Castle. Total singles stakes today are £21.50 Three cheers for all the staff at Chepstow who worked so hard to ensure that racing went ahead there. It looks as though we are all in for a real treat today with so much good racing fur us to see. As usual the very best of luck to all punters having a go at trying to make some money with their betting today Bad day so far. The only regret I have is that I did not have an insurance bet on Pozo Emery in the 11.45 at Chepstow. Stupid of me when I considered this one to be the main threat. Never mind. I am now having £8.00 to win on another horse I considered earlier. This is At Your Service in the 4.45 at Chelmsford at 6/4. It has drifted slightly beuause of money pouring in for the Mick Appleby runner Your Choice. Whether this is one will win I don't know but I will have a small saver of £1.70 on Arnoul Of Metz at 5/1 =========================================================================================================== What a horrible day for the fancied runners in the non handicap races; even at Kempton. My main three contenders in the KO cup all failed to win. Very interesting. This has taught me to narrow down a race to a main selection choice and, if I feel that there is one other major player then have an insurance bet on that. Where, it appears that there are two/three etc dangers, just to leave the race alone. I suppose I felt obliged to back all my fancies but that was a big mistake. Oddly enough it was a class 6 selection that mitigated my losses. My fun bet also produced a small profit. I staked in total £31.20 and had a return of £25.72 so a small loss on the day of £5.48. This brings my balance to £533.78 (£500 Bank) so no harm done. Only three non handicap races in the UK tomorrow. Funny enough they all seem to have short priced favourites along with a main challenger at short odds too. Judging on the forecast prices it looks as though it will simply not pay to back one and have another as an insurance bet. Why take a risk when there is no profit to be made? Edited January 9, 2021 by The Equaliser Results Update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 20 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I'm being brave next weekend ....got the 2 x 33pt rollover bets from last weekend ....I could just pick a small race but I've got a better chance of picking a big priced winner in the big races so I'm gonna go for it ......first race I'm currently looking at is the rescheduled welsh national .......Ive passed it through the computer and I have ...... The two amigos 355 Christmas in April 345 Cloudy glen 341 Well ......that seems pretty cut and dry .....what's anyones opinions on top 2 here ....especially 2 amigos....do you think hes worth putting up as the rollover bet given theres 19runners....gulp .....christmas in april is no mug though ....and looks a good type for this sort of race ...? Currently 2 amigos is around 10/1 ...so that would be a 360 odd pt return bet **** update.....first of the 33pt rollover bets from last week .....given the ground is heavy I'm going 25pt win at 16.5 betfair on THE TWO AMIGOS which I think is an incredible price ....and an 8pt saver on CHRISTMAS IN APRIL ..AT 11.5 at betfair ....I'm happy with those bets and as its bookies money really as I recouped my original stake it's a shot to nothing in my eyes 2nd ......nooooooooooo The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 So close Richard. Cracking race to watch. richard-westwood and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: A few outsiders 11.30 lingfield Henry Croft 30/1 5places 13.05 lingfield luckys dream 15/2 3plces winner 13.40 lingfield central city 14/1 14.50 lingfield agent of fortune 14/1 4places 15.25 lingfield Zulu zander 9/1 13.30 wincanton thunderstruck 15/2 4 places 15.45 wincanton jackson hill 10-1 winner 3.10 Chepstow cloudy glen 20/1 all bets 50p e/w ??? bet365 another good day out £8 in £12.94 Villa Chris, vikki37, The Brigadier and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 One from my new AW system. Chelmsford 5.45 SAIGON SUZI 22/1. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipswich45 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, ipswich45 said: ITV Picks 1310 Kempton - 14 The Bay Birch - 3rd 1325 Chepstow - 4 Houx Gris - 3rd 1345 Kempton - 15 Rocco - 8th 1405 Wincanton - 3 Messire Des Obeaux - WON SP: 9/4 1420 Kempton - 5 McFabulous - WON SP: 10/11 1435 Wincanton - 3 Capeland - WON SP: 6/1 1455 Kempton - 1 Imperial Aura - Fell at 2nd fence 1510 Chepstow - 4 Lord Du Mesnil - 9th 1530 Kempton - 6 Glynn - Pulled Up 1545 Wincanton - 2 Molineaux - 2nd Other Selections 1540 Chelmsford - 7 Bad Atttitude - 6th 1555 Chepstow - 4 Poniente - 2nd 1557 Kempton - 9 Nordican Bleue - DNF 1715 Chelmsford - 5 Eyes - WON SP: 13/8 Fairly decent afternoon of results 4 winners and a couple of the place runners on another day would have won congratulations to Daryl Jacob on his 5 timer at Wincanton and Paul Nicholls who appears to have settled with 8 wins today Edited January 9, 2021 by ipswich45 The Brigadier and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, ipswich45 said: congratulations to Daryl Jacob on his 5 timer at Wincanton and Paul Nicholls who appears to have settled with 8 wins today It was a good day for Nicholls with 7 winners but again the TV pundits went over the top claiming he had a 10,000 to 1 accumulator, omitting the fact that he had 20 runners on the day. Perhaps I wasn't very receptive because I'd picked his GLAJOU as my nap which was rubbish. LEE-GRAYS, Villa Chris, The Brigadier and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipswich45 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 i seem to have the same sort of issue 4 winners but nap pulled up couldnt write it if you tried MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 13 hours ago, MCLARKE said: It was a good day for Nicholls with 7 winners but again the TV pundits went over the top claiming he had a 10,000 to 1 accumulator, omitting the fact that he had 20 runners on the day. Perhaps I wasn't very receptive because I'd picked his GLAJOU as my nap which was rubbish. Yep utter nonsense . Click bait crap at its best . If you had requested that he have 7 winners on the day I’m sure your odds would have been much less than 10000/1, but they have ignored the other 13 runners that didn’t come in for him. Either way it’s a great day for him, and continues his good form. Does he do well at the Cheltenham festival, usually? He seems less festival orientated than Henderson does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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