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Racing Chat - Sunday 27th December


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3.20 Weth Parramount £5.55 win at 9/4 with Bet365.  Looks like the most promising for Brian Hughes today.  Hopefully the course at Wetherby will suit its prominent racing style.  Most betting sites putting this one up at 2/1 so I hope that I am getting some value on price.

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Funny old thing markets.  My horse was around 2/1 around midnight yesterday and went into 13/8 in the morning trades.  But in the run up to the off it drifted to 16/5, i.e over 3/1.  Well, the market got it right near the off because the Nicholls runner Mr Glass was sent of 15/8 favourite and won by 11 lengths from my horse .  One down to the markets today.  Anyway a £5.55 loss that makes my running total £541.55 (Bank £500)

I can only find 3 non handicap races tomorrow with only two with favourites just above evens so it's gong to be tough to find a selection

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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Can’t see Chepstow going ahead but we’ll see 

1.45 Leopardstown , N’Golo 8/1 ew

Wasnt suited by the slow run race last time and only finished two lengths behind Ballydam who’s favourite for the supreme. Almost certainly be a quicker pace today which will suit his stamina and turn of foot. I think 8/1 is pretty generous if you ask me. 
 

1.55 Kempton , Coded Message 18/1 ew

Hasn’t taken to fences so reverts back to hurdling where she showed some decent form. Won this last year by 10 lengths races off 12 Ibs higher which will make life harder, but has a 7Ibs claimer on board , and again I think she’s overpriced and is great ew value against horses that have it to prove 

3.05 Kempton , Manofthemountain 9/1 ew

4/6 over fences and although has gone up in the weights , he’s been dropped 1Ib for not showing up at Cheltenham in what was a pretty hot race lto with Frodon running them ragged . Much calmer waters today on a track which may suit better . 
 

Treble 6.22/1

Kemp 1.20 Shishkin 

Weth 2.10 Nuts Well(Nap)

Kemp 2.30 Altior 

Edited by Villa Chris
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2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Can’t see Chepstow going ahead but we’ll see 

1.45 Leopardstown , N’Golo 8/1 ew

Wasnt suited by the slow run race last time and only finished two lengths behind Ballydam who’s favourite for the supreme. Almost certainly be a quicker pace today which will suit his stamina and turn of foot. I think 8/1 is pretty generous if you ask me. 
 

1.55 Kempton , Coded Message 18/1 ew

Hasn’t taken to fences so reverts back to hurdling where she showed some smart form. Won this last year by 10 lengths but races off 12 Ibs higher which will make life harder, but again I think she’s overpriced and is great ew value against horses that have it to prove 

3.05 Kempton , Manofthemountain 9/1 ew

4/6 over fences and although has gone up in the weights , he’s been dropped 1Ib for not showing up at Cheltenham in what was a pretty hot race lto with Frodon running them ragged . Much calmer waters today on a track which may suit better . 
 

Treble 6.22/1

Kemp 1.20 Shishkin 

Weth 2.10 Nuts Well(Nap)

Kemp 2.30 Altior 

According to racing post twitter account Chepstow has been abandoned ☹️ 

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18 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Yes just noticed . Was never going to happen was it with it being heavy. Well at least it’s saved me from losing more money today ?

Limerick also OFF.

Fancied BAPTISM OF FIRE my nap 10/3 in that race , ah well , £ back will feel like a winner ?

I'll be avoiding Kempton , like Newbury I generally do rubbish there !

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2.55 Leop - LOCKS CORNER 11/2 ew bet365

Jonjo O'Neill sends his in form charge over the seas in this competitive race on the back of 3 wins from 4 this season all around the 20f trip , the only occasion finished 2nd was at Cheltenham in class 2 Pertemps over 24f back in October on good , some firms paying 6 places 1/5 but I think should finish top 4 with bet365's 1/4 odds though I feel at least 1 or 2 local horses will be better on the day.

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All prices Bet365:

11.55 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Lammturner @ 33/1

I'm a firm believer in forgiving horses a poor run and if you take away this one's effort last time, he was beaten 3/4l in 2nd and is a 33/1 shot today...wasn't disgraced off higher marks last season either and stays well so worth chancing at a big price.

1.35 Wetherby - 1pt e/w El Jefe @ 25/1

Only modest on the flat but that doesn't mean he can't make a hurdler. Stays 1m2f no problem on soft ground on the level and has plenty of stamina in the pedigree to suggest this game could be okay for him. Was in form when last seen so if jumping okay on hurdling debut, could outrun the odds. 

1.50 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Astrophysics @ 40/1

Previous c&d winner back down to a mark of 60 and wasn't disgraced here last time. They didn't go very hard and it turned into a sprint which didn't suit. Wasn't given a hard time either when short of room up the straight and at 40/1 looks a shade overpriced here if they go harder in front. 

3.05 Kempton - 1pt e/w The King's Writ @ 9/1

Had a lovely prep run over hurdles last time after a break/wind surgery and should be spot on now. A good jumper who ought to race handy here which suits around Kempton and he remains off a fair mark. Quite sweet on his chances today. 

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Gutted Welsh national is off.

3.05 Kempton - I  backed CRIEVEHILL last night at 28/1 with skybet  5places not bog there is  a 10p deduction on that i just think the horse is way overpriced on best form but it is a bit of a worry that the ground turns inro a muck heap  but happy to play at the price.

3,40  Kempton-I like the Hobbs /Jobnson  STERNRUBIN horse here  was going well when fell lto  well up to winning this sort of race looks an e/w steal @10/1  5places with skybet  not bog but i will be surprised if it goes off any bigger than that.

 

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few i like today price bet365

Call Me Lyreen @ 12/1 Leopardstown 13:45
Global Citizen @ 25/1 Kempton 14:30
Discordantly @ 12/1 Leopardstown 14:55
Notebook @ 4/1 Leopardstown 13:10
Gumball @ 6/1 Kempton 13:20
Coded Message @ 14/1 Kempton 13:55
First Flow @ 11/8 Wetherby 14:10 won
Master Mcshee @ 8/1 Leopardstown 14:20 won
The Kings Writ @ 9/1 Kempton 15:05
Sternrubin @ 12/1 Kempton 15:40
 
Edited by kroni
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9 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

2.55 Leop- Last years first 3 are out of form  but are all big prices i will play those three with up to 6 places up for grabs hopeing  they will bounce back to form

FITZHENRY 20/1

ROARING BULL 25/1

PLAN OF ATTACK 40/1

I always like to keep an eye on Roaring Bull. Pull’s up a lot but has the class to produce the goods now and again and is usually a good price. I find these big  Irish handicaps very hard to call, though. 

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9 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Not sure he will even go to Cheltenham now.

 

Well, it would be a shame if he got humiliated there , but I’m sure Henderson in a month or so will be saying he’s ready. He was struggling from a long way out today. I’d love him to sign off with a win at the festival, mind. See was Henderson and Nico say in a bit. 

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510 wolv

Rayyan 270 

Your cool  270 

Tricky race ....all pointers are pointing to the fav rayyan but at 5/4 hes no value so I'll take him on with ew value horse your cool who is better than his bare form looks and might be capable of springing a surprise if he puts it together 

Your cool 10pts ew 7/1 bet365 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

150 Wolverhampton darling guest 15-2 bet Victor 6th

410 Wolverhampton iva question 13-2 bet Victor 3rd looked nice at 3f out but couldn't move quick enough 

440 Wolverhampton polyphony 14-1 sbk / 12-1 for treble.

Singles wins and treble 955-1

Polyphony wins at nice price 14-1 )17-1 BSP ? winning start to finish, nice finish to the week

Edited by Wildgarden
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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

510 wolv

Rayyan 270 

Your cool  270 

Tricky race ....all pointers are pointing to the fav rayyan but at 5/4 hes no value so I'll take him on with ew value horse your cool who is better than his bare form looks and might be capable of springing a surprise if he puts it together 

Your cool 10pts ew 7/1 bet365 

 

 

Your cool gets up on the line!!!....8/1 ....116pts returned...very nice 

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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

540 wolv

Amasova 255

Obtuse   253 

These 2 are quite a bit clear of rest so I'll try and squeeze a bit of profit out 

Amasova 10pt win 4.9 betfair 

Obtuse 10pt win 5.9 betfair 

1st and 2nd ....59pts returned ....135 pts profit on the day ....

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