Breeders Cup 2020

[ipswich45]

I hope its ok for post a separate forum for the Breeders Cup this weekend being held at Keeneland  live on Sky Sports Racing 

ALL cards for the meeting available on at the races website,  Morning line odds available on Equibase    please note only maximum of 14 fields  so anything numbered 15+ are reserves just like the Grand National 15 would be first reserve in that race,  there is strong british interest with Frankie Dettori, Ryan Moore and Hollie Doyle going across the pond representing us 

My Selections are below and correct at time of posting 

Friday    Races 1-5 are the undercard as such no betting available yet  Prices are the `morning line' in America
1630    9 Saffa's Day        7/2     - Unplaced
1705    6 Joy's Rocket        9/2   -  WON 8/1
1740    13 Don Juan Kitten    6/1   - unplaced
1815    4 Into Chocolate        12/1   - unplaced         
1850    13 Cupid's Claws        5/1  - unplaced 
1930    9 After Five        14/1 William Hill   - 4th
2010    2 New Mandate        7/1 William Hill  - unplaced
2050    3 Dayoutoftheoffice    4/1 William Hill   - 2nd
2130    9 Madone        20/1 William Hill      - unplaced
2215    5 Essential Quality    7/2 William Hill   - WON SP WAS 10/3

Saturday    Races 1-3 are the undercard as such no betting available yet   Prices are the `morning line' in America
1515    1 Nashville     4/5   - WON  SP WAS 1/5
1545    1 Engage      4/1  - unplaced
1620    4 Wicket Whisper   5/1 - unplaced
1702    6 Venetian Harbour   12/1 William Hill    - unplaced
1739    8 Oleksandra    10/1 William Hill  - unplaced
1818    9 Mr Freeze    7/1 William Hill  - unplaced
1857    14 Cayenne Pepper  14/1 Bet365  - unplaced
1936    8 Firenze Fire   12/1 William Hill  - 3rd
2015    2 Kameko   4/1 Bet365  - unplaced
2054    5 Swiss Skydiver   5/2 William Hill  - unplaced
2133    7 United   12/1 Bet365   -  unplaced
2218    9 Authentic  11/2 Bet365  - WON

Edited November 7, 2020 by ipswich45
results being added

[Trotter]

Cheers Ipswich, good luck

I used to get unfeasibly excited about the Breeders Cup years ago but I've lost interest recently

The winners that stick in my mind are Arazi, Miesque, Royal Academy, Alysheba....... late 80s to mid 90s era. 

Just seems to have become a bit bloated with the 2nd day and opportunities for the better horses to avoid each other and too many similar races. Sort of The Cheltenham Syndrome.

So I normally ignore the Friday altogether ....... and just watch two or three races on the Saturday. The ones with competitive British horses and the big race, though I quite often forget all about it and miss the races I intended to watch. Depends what else is on telly

If there's a superstar like Zenyatta or American Pharoah I'll try not to miss that

[calva decoy]

Day 1 Two Year Old Graded Races

 

730- After Five 9/1 ew bet365

810- Ebeko 25/1 ew bet365 ( 4 places )

850- Simply Ravishing 3/1 bet365

930- Campanelle 11/2 sky bet

1015- Reinvestment Risk 7/1 ew bet365

£2 wins & £1 ew's 

Will post Saturday's tomorrow evening.

Not even a placed horse & a schoolboy error backing Campanelle not realising it's running 8f & not 6 , placing is everything at Keeneland , if your horse is on the rail 4th or 5th coming round the bend you've got no chance .

Edited November 7, 2020 by calva decoy
Updated results

[richard-westwood]

810 sealiway /Cadillac    2x5pt wins 11/1 and 11/2    1pt rev forecast 

850  vequist / dayatoffice 2x5pt wins 13/2 and 4/1   1pt rev forecast 

930 aunt pearl 10pt win 3/1 .  Plum ali 5pt win 6/1    1pt rev forecast 

[Trotter]

I've had a butchers .........

Friday

7.3 Golden Pal
8.10 Sealiway
8.50 Princess Noor
9.30 Campanelle
10.15 Jackies Warrior

Saturday

5.02 Garmine
5.39 Imprimis
6.18 Knicks Go
6.57 Rushing Fall
7.36 Firnze Fire
8.15 Siskin
8.54 Swiss Skydiver
9.33 Magical
10.13 Improbable
 

[Zilzalian]

12 hours ago, Trotter said:

Cheers Ipswich, good luck

I used to get unfeasibly excited about the Breeders Cup years ago but I've lost interest recently

The winners that stick in my mind are Arazi, Miesque, Royal Academy, Alysheba....... late 80s to mid 90s era. 

Just seems to have become a bit bloated with the 2nd day and opportunities for the better horses to avoid each other and too many similar races. Sort of The Cheltenham Syndrome.

So I normally ignore the Friday altogether ....... and just watch two or three races on the Saturday. The ones with competitive British horses and the big race, though I quite often forget all about it and miss the races I intended to watch. Depends what else is on telly

If there's a superstar like Zenyatta or American Pharoah I'll try not to miss that

totally agree they killed it by adding the 2nd day, i go back to having a big bet on sheik albadou, and worked out that cigar would get beat because it had been on the go since the dubai world cup, cant remember what beat it alphabet something, but i backed it at big prices 25's if i rem correctly, fabre was/is brilliant at getting a winner there dome driver was one of the biggest bets i ever had.

A tale to tell... bloke i know (customer) asked me once what i thought would win i gave him Invasor said grab the 9/2 he put 6 grand on. same bloke i gave dome driver i said grab 8/1 he had 4 grand on that. Tight b******d never even gave me a drink after they won.

[Darran]

Yeah no issue with having a separate Breeders Cup thread given its over 2 days and as per the Melbourne Cup thread we can keep it away from the UK and Irish stuff. 

[Striker]

American racing not my specialist subject but I do like the Breeders Cup...so will have an interest

9.30-Plum Ali

Unbeaten and its hard to see her not placing at worse...currently 5-1 [4 places] William Hill

[calva decoy]

With lots of tired horses facing testing conditions at Donny on Saturday & some of the Jump boys needing the run still at Aintree I'll be swerving UK Racing Saturday & having a few bob on the Breeders Cup instead 

Had 4 winners at Wincanton ( albeit one was 1/25 ) not a penny on ?

502- Venetian Harbor 14/1 ew bet365

539- Front Run The Fed 14/1 ew sky ( 5 places )

618- Smart Samurai 10/1 ew bet365  3rd

657- Rushing Fall 3/1 bet365  2nd

736- C Z Rocket 5/1 betfair ( boost ). 2nd 

815- Siskin 10/1 betfair ew ( boost 4 places ) terrible ride from C.Keane ?

854- Harvest Moon 14/1 ew betfair  4th

933- Magical 11/4 bet365 2nd , forever the bridesmaid

1018- Tiz The Law 7/2 sky 

Edited November 8, 2020 by calva decoy
Updated results

[richard-westwood]

On 11/5/2020 at 7:24 PM, richard-westwood said:

810 sealiway /Cadillac    2x5pt wins 11/1 and 11/2    1pt rev forecast 

850  vequist / dayatoffice 2x5pt wins 13/2 and 4/1   1pt rev forecast 

930 aunt pearl 10pt win 3/1 .  Plum ali 5pt win 6/1    1pt rev forecast 

Winner and forecast in the 2nd race ..27 for the forecast  37 for the win ....aunt pearl winner in the last pays 40 returns 104 pts .....

[Striker]

10 hours ago, Striker said:

American racing not my specialist subject but I do like the Breeders Cup...so will have an interest

9.30-Plum Ali

Unbeaten and its hard to see her not placing at worse...currently 5-1 [4 places] William Hill

5th!

Got no run on the inside from the rear before flying home in last half furlong, way ahead at the pick up so put her in your US Trackers!

One thing to bear in mind for tonight is you do not want a hold up horse as the track conditions certainly seem to suit the prominent racers

[richard-westwood]

Breeders cup classic 

Improbable  312 

Tom's detat  310 

These two are a bit clear as best as I can tell on limited form so they should run well tonight hopefully ..

Improbable 8pts win 11/4 b365

Tom's detat 4pt saver 9/2 bet365

 

[richard-westwood]

Breeders cup turf 933

Tarnawa and magical are the fancied horses here and warrant serious respect for good trainers .priced 5/2 and 4/1 ..but I think there I'd a bit of value in here in UNITED ...hes won 4 of his past 5 races and finished a head 2nd in this race last year so knows what it takes ....priced 16/1 ???....that'll do for me 

United 10pt ew 16/1 bet365 

 

[alexcaruso808]

KEENELAND 20:15 - Circus Maximus

KEENELAND 17:39 - Glass Slippers

KEENELAND 22:18 Tom's Detat

 

Good luck everyone, I hope it's a profitable day.

[richard-westwood]

736 breeders cup sprint dirt 

Cz rocket  300

Firenze fire 297

Super sprint....any number of possibles but these 2 are capable of fast times if things fall right ....will be interesting to see how they perform 

Cz rocket 10pt win 9/2pp

Firenze fire 10pt win 9/1 pp

[kroni]

some e-w shots for me tonight

Starship Jubilee @ 18/1 hills - Keeneland 18:57

Terebellum @ 15/2 skybet - Keeneland 18:57

Diamond Oops @ 7/1 hills Keeneland 19:36

Factor This @ 14/1 hills - Keeneland 20:15

Valiance @ 16/1 bet365 - Keeneland 20:54

Channel Maker @ 14/1 bet365 - Keeneland 21:33

Tiz The Law @ 4/1 skybet - Keeneland 22:18

[ipswich45]

wow wow wow  Breeders Cup Mile

Order Of Australia only got in the race due to One Master being taken out, then the booked jockey Christophe Souilmon tested positive for Covid so Boudot got the ride and wins at 76-1 on the US prices if that wasnt enough  Aidan O'Brien gets the 1-2-3,  Kameko finishes 7th

[Zilzalian]

29 minutes ago, ipswich45 said:

wow wow wow  Breeders Cup Mile

Order Of Australia only got in the race due to One Master being taken out, then the booked jockey Christophe Souilmon tested positive for Covid so Boudot got the ride and wins at 76-1 on the US prices if that wasnt enough  Aidan O'Brien gets the 1-2-3,  Kameko finishes 7th

had glass slippers, audraya, siskin and tarnawa i needed siskin to win that, boxed in nowhere to go. PC Boudot should surprise no one, master at french style on a turf track that does not favour front runners what worries me now is they have the best jockey in boudot on mogul so i sense im going to be a bit annoyed with mr keane if he panics and trys to go forward on a hold up horse.

[ipswich45]

26 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

had glass slippers, audraya, siskin and tarnawa i needed siskin to win that, boxed in nowhere to go. PC Boudot should surprise no one, master at french style on a turf track that does not favour front runners what worries me now is they have the best jockey in boudot on mogul so i sense im going to be a bit annoyed with mr keane if he panics and trys to go forward on a hold up horse.

well Mr Keane won  no need to be annoyed now lol

[Zilzalian]

8 minutes ago, ipswich45 said:

well Mr Keane won  no need to be annoyed now lol

siskin cost me 20k

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

siskin cost me 20k

will win a grand if Tacitus wins but its a real longshot

[ipswich45]

ouch

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

siskin cost me 20k

 

[ipswich45]

Breeders Cup Review
    
    In the Juvenile Turf Sprint Golden Pal won by 1 length from a closing Cowan, Golden Pal jumped off 4/5 favourite in america and set the pace from the word go after initially seeming to be hard to control under Irad Ortiz Jr for Wesley Ward, Mighty Gurhka 11th for Hollie Doyle and Archie Watson having held onto the rail position and settled mid field and tried closing on the turn but ultimatley weakened in the straight, Cowan came from near the rear and very nearly caught Golden Pal towards the finish, Lippzaner under Ryan Moore was soltted in towards the rear from the start managed to round onto the rail for a fast run up the stretch and ended up finishing 4th,

    Outadore broke well in the Juvenille Turf for Jose Ortiz with Frankie Dettori on New Madate taking position on the rail into the first bend in 4th place behind Fire At Will,Battleground came out of the turn in 10th position in an outside position with Oisin Murphy on The Lir Jet in last position halfway down the back straight, Outadore led round the turn with Fire At Will on the rail, Battleground started to make headway through traffic halfway round the bend with New Mandate fading, towards the finish Fire At Will took over the lead from Outadore winning by about 3 lengths going away from a rallying Battleground in 2nd  and Cadillac finished 3rd on the rail

    In The Juvenille Fillies Turf race the Aunt Pearl broke well from stall 5 managed to grab the rail by the winning post first time around building a 3-4 length lead out of the turn from Frankie Dettori on Campanelle in 2nd, Mother Earth under Ryan Moore was in 12th place when levelling out in the back straight, turning into the straight Aunt Pearl was still 5 lengths clear from Campanelle but Ryan Moore had just started to make his move on Mother Earth, Spanish Loveaffair under Tyler Gaffalione faded from a constant 3rd towards the last furlong, Aunt Pearl won by about 3 lengths from Mother Earth getting going  down the home straight passing nearly the field wth Miss Amulet getting thrid also a late rallier

    We move on to Saturdays action with the Turf Sprint where Glass Slippers won for Kevin Ryan and Tom Eaves having broke and settled towards the rear in 10th place, Wet Your Whistle was 14th and last heading into the turn ending up finishing 2nd behind Glass Slippers having got through traffic towards the rail, Leinster finished 3rd having broken well under Luis Saez  rounded turn in around 4th position and travelled well up the straight 

    Saturday was a day to remember for Pierre-Charles Boudot originally only having 1 booked ride ended up with 3 rides due to Christophe Soumillon having a postive Covid-19 test earlier in the week picked up Audarya in the Fillies & Mare Turf winning that at 12/1 and the biggest shock of the weekend picked up the ride and winning in the Mile race on Order Of Australia which only got into the race because of One Master being taken out and went off 76/1 in the US Markets and 40/1 over here,the Mile contest brought a 1-2-3 for Aidan O'Brien with Circus Maximus coming 2nd and Lope Y Fernandez in 3rd position, Kameko for Oisin Murphy was a disappointing 6th position in what is believed to be his final race before retirement 

    In The Distaff race that followed Trainer Brad Cox made it a record  equalling 4 wins in a Breeders Cup meeting with favourite Monomoy Girl this horse won the race 2 years ago who heads for the sales tomorrow and never looked like being beaten having being held in 5th place into the backstretch and made her move around the home turn taking over the lead at the 1/16 pole , The Preakness winner Swiss Skydiver stumbled out of the starting gate effectively taken the race away from him having used his energy up catching up the 2 or so lengths he lost at the start and tired quickly briefly got up the rail into 3rd place 

    The Penaultimate race the Breeders Cup Turf was won by Tarnawa for Colin Keane, Channel Maker too the early lead with United in behind, Magical settled inbetween horses in joint 4th place under Ryan Moore with the eventual winner in 8th position off the rail and Mogul was at the back of the field, there wasnt much change in the field as they passed the winning post with 1 circuit to go passing the starting point Channel Maker was still in the lead by just under a length from United and Magical was still inbetween horses in 5th with Mogul making some places up Tarnawa was about 9 lenghts off the lead going into the home turn, United made an awkward set round the turn seeing that challenge off and giving Channel Maker a 3 length lead out of the turn, Ryan Moore went wide on Magical with Colin Keane going out wider with Tarnawa winning by just over a length with Ryan on Magical getting 2nd by a head from the long time leader Channel Maker in 3rd

    Final race the Classic with a star studded field which saw a Bob Baffert 1-2 with Authentic winning from Improbable, Maximum Security and Authentic took the early running up with Tiz The Law in 3rd with 1 circuit of Keeneland to run, Authentic had a 2 length lead out of the first turn from Maximum Security with the eventual 2nd around 6 lenghts off a this stage, going into home straight Authentic was still a length ahead of Global Campaign with Improbable taking 3rd away from Maximum Security who was on the rail and 5 lengths behind, heading towards the finish Authentic quickened up when Global Campaign tried switching to the inside  and won by just shy of 2 lengths from Improable , Tacitus came from around 7th to finish 4th and Maximum Security weakened out into 5th place and Tiz The Law in 6th

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

siskin cost me 20k

Cost me £14.50 ( if it'd won ) ?   

Don't know why I fall for the ' hype ' of big race meetings Cheltenham & Ascot are the same where I usually do crap & yet excell at smaller bread & butter stuff , albeit hype meetings are a good watch .

Well done to The Skeleton on his win with Audarya , he genuinely looked shocked & surprised & K.Ryan with Glass Slippers .

Edited November 8, 2020 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Cost me £14.50 ( if it'd won ) ?   

Don't know why I fall for the ' hype ' of big race meetings Cheltenham & Ascot are the same where I usually do crap & yet excell at smaller bread & butter stuff , albeit hype meetings are a good watch .

Well done to The Skeleton on his win with Audarya , he genuinely looked shocked & surprised & K.Ryan with Glass Slippers .

Fanshawe is very under estimated and if you looked at the form of Audraya it was very backable and Boudot is exceptional, lets be honest and say Tarnawa wasnt as obvious taking on the OBriens but its figures stacked up well, as for glass slippers i thought, have the yanks got a faster turf horse than this? taking on board what u said about hype meetings the trick is to never read the absolute tosh that is spouted in the Racing Media. they actually convince you you have it wrong, you didn't see what you saw etc etc. they watch races through eyes that are biased to what they write and tend to miss everything else. think about the November handicap as an example, and think about Trueshan as another example how was that ever 20/1 in the morning of the ascot race? i note what i see and nothing and no one changes my mind. tv commentators are worse they get one right and all of a sudden they are genius's. treat the hype meetings exactly as you treat the bread and butter stuff is my advice. As for Siskin there is always one that saves the bookies even if you think its a good bet. Also I find jockey error is the only thing you can't factor in.