Racing Chat - Sunday Aug 16th

[BillyHills]

The Great St Wilfrid Handicap

315 Ripon

 

1pt EW Dakota Gold 8/1 Hill (6 places)

F/C Combo 1,4,5,6

 

 

 

[BillyHills]

Great St Wilfrid Handicap:
Previous Winners since 2000

 

[richard-westwood]

Great st wilfred 

Motogally   228 +2 

Stanton   227 +1

Golden apollo 226 +2 

All 3 are drawn next to each other in the high draws near the rail ....hard to know how the race will pan out as generally you want to be drawn low but thesez3 can take each other on hopefully and go for the prize 

Motogally 10pts win 6.4 betf

Staxton 10pts win 7.6 betf

Golden apollo 10pts win 20.0 betf

6x1pt forecasts 

[Darran]

A bit frustrating in Australia this morning with 3 2nds including 2 that were beaten in a photo. A couple of winners and a 3rd at least helped things. The penultimate meeting with jumps races is at Coleraine in the morning.

Race 1 (3.20am)

We start off with a maiden hurdle where the first five in the betting are priced up at either 3/1 or 4/1. No doubt closer to the race the betting will sort itself out. First Crush has an obvious chance but his jockey always seems to leave his mounts with too much to do. American In Paris has done well enough in hurdles, but was behind Little Phoenix last week and for me Little Phoenix has the best hurdles form of these. He's been so consistent and although he was well behind American In Paris 3 starts back that was on a Heavy 10 and clearly the better ground at Casterton last week was much more suitable. It should be similar ground here and I thought it was a really good run last week. Jeparit is a hurdling newcomer and I thought he was worth backing. He's  been running well on the flat including winning at Donald two starts back. He's done well in his hurdles trails. Rexmont is the other horse near the head of the market and he would need to improve on his hurdling debut last year when he pulled up.

Little Phoenix @ 3/1 with Betfred

Jeparit @ 4/1 with Betfair

Race 2 (4am)

I was amazed to see that The Statesman went off odds on last week although he did look the winner until he didn't find an awful lot in the finish. I just wonder if he is working his way up to full fitness as he faded a bit at Sandown the week before. Britannicus beat him when 2nd last week and has an obvious chance again at the same weights. This isn't a race I have a huge amount of confidence on as all the 3 have winning chances, but I am just favouring Northern Voyage. I wasn't far behind The Statesman when 4th a couple of weeks ago at Sandown and that was his first race since Pakenham in April. He made the running for a long way and it was only late on when he faded away. Down in trip 100m on a flater track and 2nd up should be ideal for him and that is enough to give him the vote.

Northern Voyage @ 15/8 with Betfred

Race 3 (4.40am)

This is basically a re-run of the Casterton Steeple last week with 6 of the 7 runners having run in it. Speedy Jax went off favourite, but fell. Elvison came home in front and I think he can do so again. I fancied him last week and although he had to work hard to beat Lucques I thought there would be more to come. I would imagine connections have targeted these two races knowing they would be easier than going for the big one next week. I thought Accounted Four ran well when 3rd last week and it was an improvement on what he had shown so far this season. He was staying on though so the drop in trip 200m might not be ideal and it's frustrating we are down to 2 places, but the odds I will have a small cover bet on him.

Elvison @ 5/4 with Betfred

Accounted Four @ 9/1 with Betfred

[calva decoy]

13 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Great St Wilfrid Handicap:
Previous Winners since 2000

 

So 5 year olds have won the last 3 renewals & last 4 have been double figure draws which is surprising .

Kimifive

Staxton

Citron Major

All fit the above criteria , nice one for stats billy ?

[The Equaliser]

I have scrapped the Sporting Life website from my list of racing websites as it now seem to be just a carbon copy of the TImeform racecard selections and commentaries.  If anyone knows of a another decent racing website apart from Racing Post and ATR (don't know what happened to the smart stats, can't find them) that is just a bit independant of the Press Association propaganda machine I would appreciate it?

 

[The Equaliser]

Gone for three Trixies today

2.05 Rip Hortzadar 10/3
2.15 M/R El Presente 15/8 (up 9lbs)
3.50 Rip Zeeband 15/8 (I like this over the hyped up Mondain)
one £1 win Trixie = £4 v £68.97

1.40 M/R Brandon Castle 7/2 (stay back getback)
2.40 Rip International Dream 2/1
2.25 Nb Danyah 11/4
One £1 trixie = £4 v £92.24

2.40 Rip Fountain Cross 5/2
3.15 Rip Staxton 5/1
3.35 Nb Caroline Dale 10/3
One 50p win Trixie at 50p = £2 v £76.58

Other bets

1.40 M/R Brandon Castle £1 win at 7/2
1.40 M/R Get back Get back £1 win at 7/2

2.15 M/R More Bucks 50p ew at 9/1

2.05 RI Just Hiss 50p ew at 12/1

2.40 Rip Fountain Cross £1 win at 5/2
2.40 Rip International Dream £1 win at 2/1

3.15 Rip Staxton 50p ew at 6/1\
3.15 Rip Kimifive 50p ew at 8/1

2.25 Nb Danyah £1 win at 11/4

3.00 Nb Frontispiece £1 ew at 15/2

3.35 Nb Caroline Dale £1 win at 3/1
3.35 Nb Sardinia Sunset 50p ew at 11/2

= £10 on multiples

= £12 on Singles

= Total £22

====================================================================================

Four winners today but only had two in one Trixie which at least paid  £13.50.  The third winner eludes me once again! The net result is a small profit of £3.50.  The balance C/Fwd is now £687.93 (Bank £800)

At least I got a return of £23.65 on my singles bets which provided a profit of £11.65 on the day.  The balance C/Fwd on singles is now £312.81 (£400 Bank)

Quality racing in the UK is pretty thin on the ground later with Uttoxeter having one class 3 and 6 class 4 races.  What will be will be.

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[black rabbit]

Cold Stare  1pt win  @ 15.5  betfair  

Typnoon Ten   1pt win  @ 27/1  betfair 

Brian The Snail  1 pt win  @  18.5  betfair 

 

P/L Account  =  +  90.75  pts

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Great st wilfred 

Motogally   228 +2 

Stanton   227 +1

Golden apollo 226 +2 

All 3 are drawn next to each other in the high draws near the rail ....hard to know how the race will pan out as generally you want to be drawn low but thesez3 can take each other on hopefully and go for the prize 

Motogally 10pts win 6.4 betf

Staxton 10pts win 7.6 betf

Golden apollo 10pts win 20.0 betf

6x1pt forecasts 

No forecast bummer but 40pts profit is good enough 

[BillyHills]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have scrapped the Sporting Life website from my list of racing websites as it now seem to be just a carbon copy of the TImeform racecard selections and commentaries.  If anyone knows of a another decent racing website apart from Racing Post and ATR (don't know what happened to the smart stats, can't find them) that is just a bit independant of the Press Association propaganda machine I would appreciate it?

 

S.Life has been in decline for a while, Sky Sports is a carbon copy of them too.
Press Association provide everybody with the Data and race comments if they want to use them, its just not worth employing guys to do it differently unless you get the punters to pay for the services (hence pay the staff) like the RP.

I think we have a pretty good choice of information out there in this country, if one thing I have learnt from the lockdown is that we cover racing quite well compared to other countries.
I'm not even sure what you would want extra??

As for Smart Stats

Click on TODAYS Cards
Look on menu bar for each Meeting (Under name of Meeting)
Click on Smart Stats

Its pretty easy

 

[Trotter]

Palace Pier was very impressive winning the 'Jacques Marois' over at Deauville .......  the best Miler in Europe now

Must have been a good thing winning that handicap on the all weather at Newcastle in June ....... probably had two stone in hand !

 

[Darran]

The Sporting Life had a contract with ICS which came to an end on Saturday and Timeform have picked up the contract which is why they are now the same. Great for Timeform as they now have their comments pretty much everywhere apart from the Racing Post. Not so good for the public who want more option in looking at these things.

As for a different website I must admit I haven't really used it myself but there is a hell of a lot of information on racingandsports.com which is an Australian site, but they have in depth form for plenty of other countries including the UK. Here is a link to a race at Uttoxeter tomorrow to show all the info you can have.

https://www.racingandsports.com/form-guide/thoroughbred/united-kingdom/uttoxeter/2020-08-17/R8/enhanced-form

[Alastair]

34 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Palace Pier was very impressive winning the 'Jacques Marois' over at Deauville .......  the best Miler in Europe now

Must have been a good thing winning that handicap on the all weather at Newcastle in June ....... probably had two stone in hand !

 

Yes - won off a mark of 98 at Newcastle so it was about 2 stone in hand.

Gosden seems much more prone to running future champions in handicaps - even going back to the days of Halling etc. I can't imagine Sir Henry or Vincent O'Brien doing that.

[Alastair]

2 minutes ago, Darran said:

The Sporting Life had a contract with ICS which came to an end on Saturday and Timeform have picked up the contract which is why they are now the same. Great for Timeform as they now have their comments pretty much everywhere apart from the Racing Post. Not so good for the public who want more option in looking at these things.

As for a different website I must admit I haven't really used it myself but there is a hell of a lot of information on racingandsports.com which is an Australian site, but they have in depth form for plenty of other countries including the UK. Here is a link to a race at Uttoxeter tomorrow to show all the info you can have.

https://www.racingandsports.com/form-guide/thoroughbred/united-kingdom/uttoxeter/2020-08-17/R8/enhanced-form

A large part of Timeform's service is now effectively free to the public with the incorporation of the ratings and flags and pace angles available on Betfair. The world changes and with Paddy Power now effectively the owners I would imagine that provided it doesn't lose large sums they are happy to do this to boost betting on the Betfair web-site.

"Citizen Bull" The 1982 TV documentary on Phil Bull - the founder of Timeform - can now be seen on YouTube. For older punters a fascinating insight in to how things used to be.

[sb1961]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

The Sporting Life had a contract with ICS which came to an end on Saturday and Timeform have picked up the contract which is why they are now the same. Great for Timeform as they now have their comments pretty much everywhere apart from the Racing Post. Not so good for the public who want more option in looking at these things.

As for a different website I must admit I haven't really used it myself but there is a hell of a lot of information on racingandsports.com which is an Australian site, but they have in depth form for plenty of other countries including the UK. Here is a link to a race at Uttoxeter tomorrow to show all the info you can have.

https://www.racingandsports.com/form-guide/thoroughbred/united-kingdom/uttoxeter/2020-08-17/R8/enhanced-form

Just been looking at this site and there is a lot of info on there , free to boot !! particularly like the BP Stats . be interesting to see how their Ratings work out  , no idea what the Neurals are ? the Enhanced Form is pretty in depth and we have Pace Maps too . to buy all that in the UK would set you back £30 a month at least ! Good find Darran , although when i signed up just a minute ago  my email address was already in their system !! 

[Valiant Thor]

1 hour ago, sb1961 said:

no idea what the Neurals are ?

Another name for artificial intelligence,swarm technology,machine learning or computer generated ratings , depends on what age group your from.

[BillyHills]

3 hours ago, Darran said:

 

As for a different website I must admit I haven't really used it myself but there is a hell of a lot of information on racingandsports.com which is an Australian site, but they have in depth form for plenty of other countries including the UK. Here is a link to a race at Uttoxeter tomorrow to show all the info you can have.

https://www.racingandsports.com/form-guide/thoroughbred/united-kingdom/uttoxeter/2020-08-17/R8/enhanced-form

Its information overload, alright if you have the time to go through it all.?

[Darran]

22 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Its information overload, alright if you have the time to go through it all.?

Its probably one reason I’ve not really used it myself but the Aussies are all about info and if you read my Aussie previews you will know that I use stats as the info is easily there in the places I use. I do think sometimes you can have too much information but it’s good to know that it’s all there in one place for free

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, BillyHills said:

S.Life has been in decline for a while, Sky Sports is a carbon copy of them too.
Press Association provide everybody with the Data and race comments if they want to use them, its just not worth employing guys to do it differently unless you get the punters to pay for the services (hence pay the staff) like the RP.

I think we have a pretty good choice of information out there in this country, if one thing I have learnt from the lockdown is that we cover racing quite well compared to other countries.
I'm not even sure what you would want extra??

As for Smart Stats

Click on TODAYS Cards
Look on menu bar for each Meeting (Under name of Meeting)
Click on Smart Stats

Its pretty easy

 

Hi Graham, many thanks for your comments and highlightng where to find the smart stats on the ATR website.  I was looking at the top two line of tabs and the one which it was  hides and shows as I hover over it.

Unlike a lot of punters who are happy to rely on their form ratings I like to check what is happening in the betting markets and take account of Racing Expert(s) commentaries and selections.  I also use Nap Checker to see what the daily newspapers are choosing for their selections.

I like to see as many differing points of view as I can before deciding which horse to back.

I don't like the power that the bookies have in controlling what is put up as a good bet.  A bookie helping me to find winner(s) seems to go against the grain

One only has to look at any of the major websites such as ATR, Oddschecker and the Racing Post to see how anyone looking at these website could not help to be persuaded that their highlighted selections are the ones to back!!!

So, as many different points of view that I can find is all the better.  There are many occasions where it is hard to split which of the market leaders will best give a run for one's money.  Like today in the 3.50 at Ripon There was Zeeband and Mondain.  The RP pointed out how in and out Mondain could be so I backed Zeeband.  However in the 3.15 at Ripon I felt I had to choose between Staxton and Kimifive.  However, in this instance the market was very much in favour of Staxton so I put that in one of my Trixies.   

 

 

 

[Darran]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi Graham, many thanks for your comments and highlightng where to find the smart stats on the ATR website.  I was looking at the top two line of tabs and the one which it was  hides and shows as I hover over it.

Unlike a lot of punters who are happy to rely on their form ratings I like to check what is happening in the betting markets and take account of Racing Expert(s) commentaries and selections.  I also use Nap Checker to see what the daily newspapers are choosing for their selections.

I like to see as many differing points of view as I can before deciding which horse to back.

I don't like the power that the bookies have in controlling what is put up as a good bet.  A bookie helping me to find winner(s) seems to go against the grain

One only has to look at any of the major websites such as ATR, Oddschecker and the Racing Post to see how anyone looking at these website could not help to be persuaded that their highlighted selections are the ones to back!!!

So, as many different points of view that I can find is all the better.  There are many occasions where it is hard to split which of the market leaders will best give a run for one's money.  Like today in the 3.50 at Ripon There was Zeeband and Mondain.  The RP pointed out how in and out Mondain could be so I backed Zeeband.  However in the 3.15 at Ripon I felt I had to choose between Staxton and Kimifive.  However, in this instance the market was very much in favour of Staxton so I put that in one of my Trixies.   

 

 

 

Not saying using the Spotlight's isn't a good starting point, but be very careful in only using them. Very often they are working to tight deadlines and it is impossible for each writer to actually have spent that long on each runner. When it comes to hunter chases for example I have seen loads of errors over the years in the Racing Post spotlights and the verdicts on Oddschecker in them. As for the daily newspapers the fact so few of them actually make a profit from their naps tells you all you need to know about following the vast majority of them. Don't forget they are forced to make selections in every race or give a Nap everyday and that doesn't mean they are backing what they are tipping up.

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, Darran said:

The Sporting Life had a contract with ICS which came to an end on Saturday and Timeform have picked up the contract which is why they are now the same. Great for Timeform as they now have their comments pretty much everywhere apart from the Racing Post. Not so good for the public who want more option in looking at these things.

As for a different website I must admit I haven't really used it myself but there is a hell of a lot of information on racingandsports.com which is an Australian site, but they have in depth form for plenty of other countries including the UK. Here is a link to a race at Uttoxeter tomorrow to show all the info you can have.

https://www.racingandsports.com/form-guide/thoroughbred/united-kingdom/uttoxeter/2020-08-17/R8/enhanced-form

Many thanks for explaining what happened with the Sporting Life.  Funny enough The Sporting Life Preview on the Oddschecker website was showing a different selection to the Timeform selection on the odd occasion today.  However. it has regularly done so in the past.

Also, very many thanks for showing the link to the Racing And Sports website, I am going to have a lot of fun using that in the future

 

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, Alastair said:

A large part of Timeform's service is now effectively free to the public with the incorporation of the ratings and flags and pace angles available on Betfair. The world changes and with Paddy Power now effectively the owners I would imagine that provided it doesn't lose large sums they are happy to do this to boost betting on the Betfair web-site.

"Citizen Bull" The 1982 TV documentary on Phil Bull - the founder of Timeform - can now be seen on YouTube. For older punters a fascinating insight in to how things used to be.

Sorry Alastair I can't seem to find Timeform's actual ratings for free on the Betfair website.  I can see the selections and the star ratings but not the actual ratings themselves.  Perhaps you can show me where to look?

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, sb1961 said:

Just been looking at this site and there is a lot of info on there , free to boot !! particularly like the BP Stats . be interesting to see how their Ratings work out  , no idea what the Neurals are ? the Enhanced Form is pretty in depth and we have Pace Maps too . to buy all that in the UK would set you back £30 a month at least ! Good find Darran , although when i signed up just a minute ago  my email address was already in their system !! 

Hi sb, sorry to appear ignorant but what are the BP Stats and where can I find them please?

[Alastair]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Sorry Alastair I can't seem to find Timeform's actual ratings for free on the Betfair website.  I can see the selections and the star ratings but not the actual ratings themselves.  Perhaps you can show me where to look?

You need to press the Timeform Pro button on the website and then tick all the boxes that come up.

[sb1961]

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi sb, sorry to appear ignorant but what are the BP Stats and where can I find them please?

Hello Alastair , BP in Aussie terms !! stands for Barrier Position stats . if you click on Enhanced Form you can see them there ..

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Alastair said:

You need to press the Timeform Pro button on the website and then tick all the boxes that come up.

Hi Alastair, I can't find this button either on the Betfair Exchange or Sportsbook website.  I did find Timeform references under Form and Results tab but I would have to register and presumably pay to join.  Can you help?

[sb1961]

Can anyone confirm ? i presume that you input the OR rating for each horse into the HCP boxes ?

[BillyHills]

43 minutes ago, sb1961 said:

Can anyone confirm ? i presume that you input the OR rating for each horse into the HCP boxes ?

They don't seem to feature OR on any of the form cards, just actual weight carried which doesn't really help when looking at comparisons for previous runs.

Also it doesn't tell you what class of race it is like (0-75) for example.

You could try putting the OR in the above but i'm not sure what that would achieve?

Stats are good though if you are fed up with the RP/ATR

[Darran]

9 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

They don't seem to feature OR on any of the form cards, just actual weight carried which doesn't really help when looking at comparisons for previous runs.

Also it doesn't tell you what class of race it is like (0-75) for example.

You could try putting the OR in the above but i'm not sure what that would achieve?

Stats are good though if you are fed up with the RP/ATR

Funnily enough it seems to be the one thing the Aussies don't really care for is the rating of a horse. They talk more about actual weight carried from race to race rather than if a horse has gone up or down ratings wise. 

[sb1961]

23 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

They don't seem to feature OR on any of the form cards, just actual weight carried which doesn't really help when looking at comparisons for previous runs.

Also it doesn't tell you what class of race it is like (0-75) for example.

You could try putting the OR in the above but i'm not sure what that would achieve?

Stats are good though if you are fed up with the RP/ATR

Thanks Billy , i have inputted the OR into the HCP box so we will see what happens later. i like the look of the Neural's Tab as you can adjust these to suit . the ratings are based along the methods of Don Scott who apparently was pretty switched on, his books go for over $350 + !