GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Also, I think it seems a bit unfair to conclude that RPR's showed a loss when top selections were compared with SP.

I'm good ta. These aren't calculations I have made, they were printed in the RP. All I was trying to say was that the RPR top ratings generated a similar return to that of favourites, I think this will be the same even if using BOG or BSP.

An interesting thread, thanks for starting it. I think I'll look at some of the rules I tend to use and list them un here to see what other people think.

[The Equaliser]

Sometimes with over 500 runners in the UK on a racing day, how many VALUE bets can be expected to be found on a racing day?

To my cost I have squandered quite a bit of money on so-called handicap blots at big prices.

I am just wondering how other people whittle down their possible selections into manageable bets so as to protect their betting banks and hopefully be profitable.

I am now focussing on top rated RPR's and Timeform ratings.  I am using these along with strong market support  and selections that should be in good form.

Since I don't like betting on very short priced favourites this approach restricts the number of possible selections and in this way I am hoping to produce better results.

I will of course still come across outsiders that are highly rated and look to be handicap blots.  However, I am going to put in a tight reign and restriction on backing these beasts as on balance I feel that in reality they seldom offer true value when so many are selected.

Anyone's thoughts on the whittling down process for selections will be much appreciated.

 

 

 

 

 

[Villa Chris]

We all have different opinions on what value is, but in terms of narrowing things down I only bet on grade3/group3 to class 3 races. Infact if there’s plenty of class 2, listed, grade 3 action on, I skip class 3. Tomorrow there is no class 2 etc so will bet on a couple of class 3s. I also tend to skip novice hurdle/chases, although may take part if I see a good opening for a bet. I don’t bother with veteran chases either. 
 

Regarding odds, I might bet on a short priced favourite if it’s my only bet of the day or I only have a couple of selections.  Don’t like to go below 11/8 , 6/4 though, and even then it’s not often I’ll go that short as only have a set amount I’ll bet on a race. 

[richard-westwood]

I dont find much value in graded and group class races ....sometimes you can but bookies are very very good at pricing them up and the odds are stacked in their favour ....

I tend to find a lot of mine in big ...really tricky hcaps because the value horses get lost in the haze .....me and valiant thor have very similar principles ....decide how good the horse is using ratings then only back if the price available is better than the horses actual chance  .....if you stick to that you will ALWAYS win in the long run .....I've had 15 20 straight losing races ...200 300 pts down ....then I'll win 7 of the next 9 races winning 400 pts and I'm back in front and I've done that at least 20 times to my knowledge in the last couple years ...it always comes back as long as your disciplined and stick to the rules .....if I think a horse is value at 11/2 but its 5/1 then it's no good ....at 11/2 I win in the long run  ..at 5/1 I break even ...no good .....that's the pure essence of value betting 

So you'll rarely find me on a 9/4 or less ....when theres 12 horses in a race why would I wanna be on one ??....unless say the following happened 

Horse 1 300

Horse2  294

Horse 3  291

Horse 4 285

Horse 5 283

Etc etc 

So in my opinion it's a 3 horse race on ratings by a strong margin .....so 2/1 on top rated is break even if I can get 9/4 or better I'll play in this scenario ....so I keep an open mind 

[Villa Chris]

I suppose it’s all about where we are as punters, too. If I’m being honest I don’t really search for value that much and I suppose I don’t know what true value is as I don’t have a ratings system set up like Rich and Thor. I have a certain method of getting my selections which is  number based, but one day I’d like to be able to have my own proper ratings as I’d enjoy doing it. Just doing my selections now with notepad, and pen I find really relaxing.  I’m really enjoying my betting at moment and the losses are far easier to take. 

[richard-westwood]

8 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I suppose it’s all about where we are as punters, too. If I’m being honest I don’t really search for value that much and I suppose I don’t know what true value is as I don’t have a ratings system set up like Rich and Thor. I have a certain method of getting my selections which is  number based, but one day I’d like to be able to have my own proper ratings as I’d enjoy doing it. Just doing my selections now with notepad, and pen I find really relaxing.  I’m really enjoying my betting at moment and the losses are far easier to take. 

That's good ....I'm the same I find it enjoyable and quite therapeutic analysing racing...even if I take an hour to rate 5 races and find nothing I just shrug it off and try again another day .....I just find it relaxing tbh 

[Villa Chris]

3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

That's good ....I'm the same I find it enjoyable and quite therapeutic analysing racing...even if I take an hour to rate 5 races and find nothing I just shrug it off and try again another day .....I just find it relaxing tbh 

Does the missus head in sometimes , but there’s worse things to be studying ?

[richard-westwood]

24 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Does the missus head in sometimes , but there’s worse things to be studying ?

I used to have propunter on the amiga years ago....fab program but it took hours to input the form ....like 60 to 90 mins per race ...jeez at least we have moved on from that  

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

We all have different opinions on what value is, but in terms of narrowing things down I only bet on grade3/group3 to class 3 races. Infact if there’s plenty of class 2, listed, grade 3 action on, I skip class 3. Tomorrow there is no class 2 etc so will bet on a couple of class 3s. I also tend to skip novice hurdle/chases, although may take part if I see a good opening for a bet. I don’t bother with veteran chases either. 
 

Regarding odds, I might bet on a short priced favourite if it’s my only bet of the day or I only have a couple of selections.  Don’t like to go below 11/8 , 6/4 though, and even then it’s not often I’ll go that short as only have a set amount I’ll bet on a race. 

I used to look to the high class races for my Trixie bets, however, I soon became disappointed when my so called good things ran like donkeys.  I have now become more open minded and will look at any class of race as long as it is an open race and has decent forecast prices.  I just skip the races with short priced favourites, usually beneath 2/1.  I would prefer prices of 7/2 plus as pointed out in "How To Win at Handicap Racing" by Patrick Kilgallon (1990) ISBN 0900611 51 0 Published by Raceform.  He points out that even if one has a 30% strike rate and obtains odd of 7/2 then you will make a profit of at least 35% whereas if you accept odds of 6/4 you will make a loss of 25%.  This is a very good read if you can get hold of a copy.  He explains all about handicap racing.

Bad luck with Younevercall in the 2.48 at Kempton btw, beaten a nose!  I was on it too ?

 

[Villa Chris]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I used to look to the high class races for my Trixie bets, however, I soon became disappointed when my so called good things ran like donkeys.  I have now become more open minded and will look at any class of race as long as it is an open race and has decent forecast prices.  I just skip the races with short priced favourites, usually beneath 2/1.  I would prefer prices of 7/2 plus as pointed out in "How To Win at Handicap Racing" by Patrick Kilgallon (1990) ISBN 0900611 51 0 Published by Raceform.  He points out that even if one has a 30% strike rate and obtains odd of 7/2 then you will make a profit of at least 35% whereas if you accept odds of 6/4 you will make a loss of 25%.  This is a very good read if you can get hold of a copy.  He explains all about handicap racing.

Bad luck with Younevercall in the 2.48 at Kempton btw, beaten a nose!  I was on it too ?

 

The winners have to pay for the losers don’t they .  Mistake at second last cost him the race. Very good run overall after so long off.  Frustrating nonetheless.

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

The winners have to pay for the losers don’t they .  Mistake at second last cost him the race. Very good run overall after so long off.  Frustrating nonetheless.

I couldn't see that you included in the Naps today.  Aren't you playing?

 

[Villa Chris]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I couldn't see that you included in the Naps today.  Aren't you playing?

 

I don’t bother with it mainly down to laziness. I put the horse up as my sole bet today in today’s racing chat. I started doing the naps competition, and started off well, but like the £20 challenge I couldn’t be bothered to carry it on. Tbf I don’t like to Nap my selections. 

[Villa Chris]

Talking of naps. Once I’ve done my selections I usually look at RP and ATR to see what their pick is. RPs Spotlight nap tomorrow is Rowland Ward 7/1 which is one of my selections. Not sure how profitable Spotlight naps are in all honesty.

[Villa Chris]

 showing a small profit on £1 stakes 

https://www.horseracing.net/tipsters/racing-post/spotlight

Edited November 9, 2020 by Villa Chris

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

 showing a small profit on £1 stakes 

https://www.horseracing.net/tipsters/racing-post/spotlight

Yeah and I backed his nap today Havana Hermano in the 2.15 at Kempton.  A lot of good that did me ?

[The Equaliser]

3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yeah and I backed his nap today Havana Hermano in the 2.15 at Kempton.  A lot of good that did me ?

Racing Post ratings does very well over time

 

[MCLARKE]

Do you have the data for the RP ratings ?

[The Equaliser]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Do you have the data for the RP ratings ?

Of course I do. I am a member of Napchecker which gives me access to the data on all the tipsters.  I know that you like to look at data over 5 years plus but it would seem that I only have access to data for 360 days.  RP ratings comes 17th in the table for just tips and 3rd in the table for its naps. The Mail (Robin Goodfellow seems to be the best for tips and only one place behind the RP ratings in the naps table.  This is using the Betfair SP price criteria.  I think it too onerous to choose the 9am BOG prices and as you know I hate using SP criteria for anything.  Hope this helps

Many thanks for reminding me, I should make greater use of these statistics in the future

[The Equaliser]

Well folks, many thanks for your thoughts on ratings.

My hero Patrick Kilgallon pointed out that I can get about 30% winners by just blindly following the top TWO rated of any reputable private  handicap authors.  He goes on to say that one can increase this percentage to around 40% if one can carefully considers the following factors: weight, class , recent form, sex, key races, going, distance, size of the field and draw.

Not sure if  I have the ability to focus on all these factors.

However, he also point out that if one includes the top FOUR ratings without the above extra factors that I may expect 65% of winners.

I can easily check such things as size of the field, Draw  Weight, Distance, Going, Recent Form and Class but I do have a problem with Key race statistics.

Anyway, what I am going to do is try to ascertain the top four ratings whilst looking at the RPR and Timeform.  Luckily, I have Timeform ratings on hand for free via using a plugin on Google chrome (I believe MS Edge has this also) atm.  Napchecker tells me the RPR actual selection.

A problem for me with both the ratings is that quite often the same number is allotted to different horses in the same race. Hence for example I may see a horse top rated alongside two others and the second top rated having say two runners with the same rating.  Hence, just looking at two of the top rated I have FIVE horses to choose from.

The top rated Timeform and Racing Post rating are usually very easy to find but the third and fourth can be much much more complex to determine.

For simplicity I will consider the top two of each Timeform and Racing Post ratings.  Where I see duplications of the second ratings on either the Timeform or RPR this will serve as a warning to me that there just maybe too many selections to analyse and in truth it may well be best to just leave the race alone.

I am not convinced that if say I have four possible selections that if I manage to get a price about one of horses at 5/1 or above that I have a value bet?  However, I respect @richard-westwood opinion as he has been making money on the geegees a lot longer than I have ?

         

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Villa Chris]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Of course I do. I am a member of Napchecker which gives me access to the data on all the tipsters.  I know that you like to look at data over 5 years plus but it would seem that I only have access to data for 360 days.  RP ratings comes 17th in the table for just tips and 3rd in the table for its naps. The Mail (Robin Goodfellow seems to be the best for tips and only one place behind the RP ratings in the naps table.  This is using the Betfair SP price criteria.  I think it too onerous to choose the 9am BOG prices and as you know I hate using SP criteria for anything.  Hope this helps

Many thanks for reminding me, I should make greater use of these statistics in the future

Used to follow Robin Goodfellow a lot. I still like to look at his tips/naps as I think he’s pretty decent. 

[MCLARKE]

Good luck, hope you are successful. I must admit I haven't used these ratings as part of my analysis because they are not part of the data that I automatically download.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Good luck, hope you are successful. I must admit I haven't used these ratings as part of my analysis because they are not part of the data that I automatically download.

Many thanks but I will be using the Timeform ratings as well (for as long as I can get them for free anyway).  Not only that I will be looking at the market for guidance too.  Obviously I will be checking on Class, Distance, going etc.  Also, I will make a note of tipsters that have a decent strike rate over a 360 day period and see if they select the top rated horses.

I just wonder what sort of data do you download every day and how you use it?

 

 

Edited November 11, 2020 by The Equaliser

[richard-westwood]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well folks, many thanks for your thoughts on ratings.

My hero Patrick Kilgallon pointed out that I can get about 30% winners by just blindly following the top TWO rated of any reputable private  handicap authors.  He goes on to say that one can increase this percentage to around 40% if one can carefully considers the following factors: weight, class , recent form, sex, key races, going, distance, size of the field and draw.

Not sure if  I have the ability to focus on all these factors.

However, he also point out that if one includes the top FOUR ratings without the above extra factors that I may expect 65% of winners.

I can easily check such things as size of the field, Draw  Weight, Distance, Going, Recent Form and Class but I do have a problem with Key race statistics.

Anyway, what I am going to do is try to ascertain the top four ratings whilst looking at the RPR and Timeform.  Luckily, I have Timeform ratings on hand for free via using a plugin on Google chrome (I believe MS Edge has this also) atm.  Napchecker tells me the RPR actual selection.

A problem for me with both the ratings is that quite often the same number is allotted to different horses in the same race. Hence for example I may see a horse top rated alongside two others and the second top rated having say two runners with the same rating.  Hence, just looking at two of the top rated I have FIVE horses to choose from.

The top rated Timeform and Racing Post rating are usually very easy to find but the third and fourth can be much much more complex to determine.

For simplicity I will consider the top two of each Timeform and Racing Post ratings.  Where I see duplications of the second ratings on either the Timeform or RPR this will serve as a warning to me that there just maybe too many selections to analyse and in truth it may well be best to just leave the race alone.

I am not convinced that if say I have four possible selections that if I manage to get a price about one of horses at 5/1 or above that I have a value bet?  However, I respect @richard-westwood opinion as he has been making money on the geegees a lot longer than I have ?

         

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you genuinely feel you have narrowed the race to 4 horses and you are getting 5/1 then in essence you are striking a value bet as long as your ratings are accurate ..... theres always a but lol .......the rpr rating is their assessment of the best performance the horse has done in the last 12 monthes ??.....it could be based on a run 12lbs below this mark so isnt a rock solid benchmark it's more of a guide ...sometimes I look at it and scratch my head because I know the horse cannot possibly achieve that rating .....therein lies the problem .....accuracy is paramount .....every time a horse runs a race it achieves a number ....a combination of rpr ...speed...class ....weight carried ....how it ran in the race etc ....only advice I can give is start easy .....I started with athletes on a racetrack....how would you quantify the number for each athletes performance.....you can use maths ....just speed ....speed and distances behind winner etc but each athlete will produce a number each time he she runs and after a while you notice that even if you change the track or the lane they will run a variant of their "magic number " .....its the same for horses ....every time they run that performance can be quantified ......you just play the race out in your head and say ......how can I measure that ....the all weather is easiest to start ....its just the horse equivalent of an athletics track lol 

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

If you genuinely feel you have narrowed the race to 4 horses and you are getting 5/1 then in essence you are striking a value bet as long as your ratings are accurate ..... theres always a but lol .......the rpr rating is their assessment of the best performance the horse has done in the last 12 monthes ??.....it could be based on a run 12lbs below this mark so isnt a rock solid benchmark it's more of a guide ...sometimes I look at it and scratch my head because I know the horse cannot possibly achieve that rating .....therein lies the problem .....accuracy is paramount .....every time a horse runs a race it achieves a number ....a combination of rpr ...speed...class ....weight carried ....how it ran in the race etc ....only advice I can give is start easy .....I started with athletes on a racetrack....how would you quantify the number for each athletes performance.....you can use maths ....just speed ....speed and distances behind winner etc but each athlete will produce a number each time he she runs and after a while you notice that even if you change the track or the lane they will run a variant of their "magic number " .....its the same for horses ....every time they run that performance can be quantified ......you just play the race out in your head and say ......how can I measure that ....the all weather is easiest to start ....its just the horse equivalent of an athletics track lol 

Many thanks for your considered thoughts.  I do have a real problem when you say such things as above e.g. 5/1 could be a value bet OR  as you said on Monday "So in my opinion it's a 3 horse race on ratings by a strong margin .....so 2/1 on top rated is break even if I can get 9/4 or better I'll play in this scenario ....so I keep an open mind".

This cannot be correct.  If there is a usefulness for price with regard to a ratings method then it has to be for it to be related to the percentage of winners that it produces.  For example, if your top rated selection throws up say 30% winners over  a significant number of results then, if you find a selection to back at 5/1 (roughly 17%) then you do have a potentially "value" bet.  I say that because included in your 30% top rated selections could be odds on favourites and those below 5/2 which imo should be removed from the results so as not to distort the figures.

I am not trying to be difficult here, I am just trying to point out what is logical and what isn't.

Where you of course score is because of being disciplined and consistently sticking to the same approach over a long period of of time.

As you point out there are many factors that will affect any rating method and of course your 5 pronged approach in finding selections seems very solid to me.

The way ion which I am using the top two ratings from Timeform and Racing Post ratings is also to align them with what the market is telling me.  For example in the 2.05 at Exeter today the top RPR is given to Marly Firth. Last night this horse was being quoted at 12/1.  This morning its price has been slashed to a best price of 5/1.  As far as I'm concerned I wouldn't play it even at 12/1.  The Timeform  top rated is Vango De Vaige with Richard Johnson aboard.  This one is priced at 100/30 and imo is a worthwhile bet. Because I like to get  at least 7/2 I have played this on Betfair at 5.0 (which includes a 2% commission if it wins).  Hence, although I don't have or even want the ability to spend a lot of time on a number of ratings from different angles like yourself I am trying to compensate by using market forces and other expert opinion.

 

 

 

     

[richard-westwood]

50 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for your considered thoughts.  I do have a real problem when you say such things as above e.g. 5/1 could be a value bet OR  as you said on Monday "So in my opinion it's a 3 horse race on ratings by a strong margin .....so 2/1 on top rated is break even if I can get 9/4 or better I'll play in this scenario ....so I keep an open mind".

This cannot be correct.  If there is a usefulness for price with regard to a ratings method then it has to be for it to be related to the percentage of winners that it produces.  For example, if your top rated selection throws up say 30% winners over  a significant number of results then, if you find a selection to back at 5/1 (roughly 17%) then you do have a potentially "value" bet.  I say that because included in your 30% top rated selections could be odds on favourites and those below 5/2 which imo should be removed from the results so as not to distort the figures.

I am not trying to be difficult here, I am just trying to point out what is logical and what isn't.

Where you of course score is because of being disciplined and consistently sticking to the same approach over a long period of of time.

As you point out there are many factors that will affect any rating method and of course your 5 pronged approach in finding selections seems very solid to me.

The way ion which I am using the top two ratings from Timeform and Racing Post ratings is also to align them with what the market is telling me.  For example in the 2.05 at Exeter today the top RPR is given to Marly Firth. Last night this horse was being quoted at 12/1.  This morning its price has been slashed to a best price of 5/1.  As far as I'm concerned I wouldn't play it even at 12/1.  The Timeform  top rated is Vango De Vaige with Richard Johnson aboard.  This one is priced at 100/30 and imo is a worthwhile bet. Because I like to get  at least 7/2 I have played this on Betfair at 5.0 (which includes a 2% commission if it wins).  Hence, although I don't have or even want the ability to spend a lot of time on a number of ratings from different angles like yourself I am trying to compensate by using market forces and other expert opinion.

 

 

 

     

I see what your saying ....we are at diff perspectives of value ....you are at the traditional strike rate which is the route most people take .......I am working on this one single race each time ...  I get rid of the chaff ....and then base my value on this one single race and it will be different every time ....think of the athletic track again ....let's say 8 runners today .....4 of the runners have never run 200m faster than 20.8 secs whereas 4 runners have averaged 20.2 or better in last 2 runs so we scrub the slow runners .....that leaves 4 ........the top rated of the 4 is 20.12....but when hes drawn 6 or worse he has never run better than 20.22 .....the 2nd rated has consistently run 20.14 ....20.16...20.13 on last 3 runs and is in plum draw 4 today .....price 5/1 ......a value bet today .....its bespoke to this race ....that's how I work all the time ...can you see now if you strike those kind of bets consistently you are gonna come out top in the long run 

Edited November 11, 2020 by richard-westwood

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

I see what your saying ....we are at diff perspectives of value ....you are at the traditional strike rate which is the route most people take .......I am working on this one single race each time ...  I get rid of the chaff ....and then base my value on this one single race and it will be different every time ....think of the athletic track again ....let's say 8 runners today .....4 of the runners have never run 200m faster than 20.8 secs whereas 4 runners have averaged 20.2 or better in last 2 runs so we scrub the slow runners .....that leaves 4 ........the top rated of the 4 is 20.12....but when hes drawn 6 or worse he has never run better than 20.22 .....the 2nd rated has consistently run 20.14 ....20.16...20.13 on last 3 runs and is in plum draw 4 today .....price 5/1 ......a value bet today .....its bespoke to this race ....that's how I work all the time ...can you see now if you strike those kind of bets consistently you are gonna come out top in the long run 

Yes, put in that way your idea of value then seems to make a lot of sense.  Thank you

[MCLARKE]

It is difficult to quantify value as we will never know the true chance of a horse winning. There are so many variables involved in racing that it is impossible to take account of every one of them.

Some of these variables we don't even have information about. I used to have a profitable system at the greyhounds based on the dog's weight, this probably applies to horses as well but it is information that we do not have.

To me the only way we know that we are getting value is if over the long term we are making a profit.

 

[MCLARKE]

On 11/10/2020 at 2:42 PM, The Equaliser said:

My hero Patrick Kilgallon pointed out that I can get about 30% winners by just blindly following the top TWO rated of any reputable private  handicap authors

I am always dubious of such statistics. If you just blindly followed the top 2 in the betting you would get about 60% winners so in this context 30% is nothing special.

Strike rate is pretty meaningless, it is the profit figure that is key.

 

[MCLARKE]

21 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I just wonder what sort of data do you download every day and how you use it?

The data I use is the basic data that you can find on the PL race-card (form, age, weight etc.)

I have several years worth of data which I have analysed and developed various strategies from. I then download the current day's data and apply the strategies to this to arrive at the day's selections. 

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I am always dubious of such statistics. If you just blindly followed the top 2 in the betting you would get about 60% winners so in this context 30% is nothing special.

Strike rate is pretty meaningless, it is the profit figure that is key.

 

Very interesting.  I notice that a lot of tipsters/napsters in Nap checker may have a 25% strike rate but they can be hundreds of pounds in loss at level stakes