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GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT


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For all owners , syndicate owners , stable staff , breeders I hope he's stripped of his license completely , you shouldn't make a joke of a tragedy if a Grade 1 or Class 6 horse they all deserve a bit

Noticed that the 2 year old race at Bath today was 'Restricted to Horses in Band D' I've had a look at what this means and it seems that the BHA have redesigned 2 year old maiden and novice races

Love this on so many levels. Educational purposes and also the love the jockey has for the horse. Frodon cam view gold cup.  https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/ondemand/103267

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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

The fine form system has picked 2/2 at York so far with one of them an 8/1 winner.  I didn’t have it myself as I weren’t confident enough it would handle the up in class, but it won well. 
 

3/3 now

Very interesting' I seem to remember Fineform from years and years ago.  You must be kicking yourself for not getting involved in the first three races.  I believe that you said in your previous post that you were looking for 4 of the top rated and then backing 2 singles and a double.  I presume that you would have been selecting the two that you thought would have the best chance of winning.

I, of course wish you the best of luck in your quest.

I must confess that I cannot get to grips with ratings systems that seem to proliferate the racing world these days.  I remember one PL member who seemed to be able to make contrasts between All weather form rating and Turf form ratings. This seemed quite interesting to me.

Anyway, with my limited knowledge on this topic I feel it is quite appropriate to quote from a treasured book that I have by Patrick Kilgallon "How to win at Handicap Racing" actually published by Raceform Ltd in 1990.  What he was basically saying was that if you blindly followed the top two of any private handicap system you would be successful 30% of the time.  If you want to improve the rate further by taking into account other factors such a weight, distance, current form etc. then you might increase that success rate to around 40% (forgive me for not giving the exact quote as I don't want to breach copyright).

Anyway, the point I am trying to make is that the 8/1 chance that you identified looked like a snip to bet on (however, as always I put the emphasis on money management, especially where staking is concerned).

I am pretty sure that others in Punters Lounge may give some good advice on how to bet using ratings ,top or otherwise .

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very interesting' I seem to remember Fineform from years and years ago.  You must be kicking yourself for not getting involved in the first three races.  I believe that you said in your previous post that you were looking for 4 of the top rated and then backing 2 singles and a double.  I presume that you would have been selecting the two that you thought would have the best chance of winning.

I, of course wish you the best of luck in your quest.

I must confess that I cannot get to grips with ratings systems that seem to proliferate the racing world these days.  I remember one PL member who seemed to be able to make contrasts between All weather form rating and Turf form ratings. This seemed quite interesting to me.

Anyway, with my limited knowledge on this topic I feel it is quite appropriate to quote from a treasured book that I have by Patrick Kilgallon "How to win at Handicap Racing" actually published by Raceform Ltd in 1990.  What he was basically saying was that if you blindly followed the top two of any private handicap system you would be successful 30% of the time.  If you want to improve the rate further by taking into account other factors such a weight, distance, current form etc. then you might increase that success rate to around 40% (forgive me for not giving the exact quote as I don't want to breach copyright).

Anyway, the point I am trying to make is that the 8/1 chance that you identified looked like a snip to bet on (however, as always I put the emphasis on money management, especially where staking is concerned).

I am pretty sure that others in Punters Lounge may give some good advice on how to bet using ratings ,top or otherwise .

 

 

 

It’s one of them isn’t it. How many times do us punters kick ourselves. I did put the one in a double with Elarqam, but Elarqam was very disappointing today.  The 8/1 I thought had too much to prove in my eyes, so never went with it. I pick out the two horses I really fancy , then will put the other selection(s) in a double.  Although quite dated now, Timeform still seems to hold its own. I can’t bet on every race though, so it’s about picking the winners and not the losers. 
 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

It’s one of them isn’t it. How many times do us punters kick ourselves. I did put the one in a double with Elarqam, but Elarqam was very disappointing today.  The 8/1 I thought had too much to prove in my eyes, so never went with it. I pick out the two horses I really fancy , then will put the other selection(s) in a double.  Although quite dated now, Timeform still seems to hold its own. I can’t bet on every race though, so it’s about picking the winners and not the losers. 
 

 

 

 

It occurs to me that it is more difficult to win a double than a single, hence, I would have thought that it may be better to put your more fancied horses in the double.  However, since sod's law often prevails as in the case of your 8/1 shot winning, it ,may be prudent to back all your selections in singles as well, even if this means at perhaps reduced stakes so as to maximise your ability to come out unscathed should one of them win.  Just a thought.

It would be tough to bet every race, I reckon that if I could do so I would just back PL tips as they show a healthy profit.  I just don't know how the negative cash flows would sometimes grow before the profits just ate them up.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

It occurs to me that it is more difficult to win a double than a single, hence, I would have thought that it may be better to put your more fancied horses in the double.  However, since sod's law often prevails as in the case of your 8/1 shot winning, it ,may be prudent to back all your selections in singles as well, even if this means at perhaps reduced stakes so as to maximise your ability to come out unscathed should one of them win.  Just a thought.

It would be tough to bet every race, I reckon that if I could do so I would just back PL tips as they show a healthy profit.  I just don't know how the negative cash flows would sometimes grow before the profits just ate them up.

 

 

I bet a certain amount a week and only on a Saturday providing there aren’t any big festivals in the week. Just divided my betting money by numbers of races that qualified at York today. Would have showed around £70 profit today which has annoyed me. I’m thinking I will now lower my stakes so I can fit every race in at whatever meeting I pick out on a Saturday .  Saves me debating on what horses to choose and leave out. 

Edited by Villa Chris
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I have looked at the Fineform System ..... it's quite handy if you just want to pick selections in lots of races. I think I posted daily selections on here at one time based on the points system

But as Chris said earlier the obvious problem is that it takes no account of class and going

You could get the absurdity of a horse that had previously won a 12 furlong seller at Ascot and class 6 handicap at Brighton on it's last two runs and would be top pick for today's King George at 1000/1

So maybe a couple of refinements .......

Do the ratings and get your top rated selections then only pick them if they have won in today's class or placed in a higher class and the going is not a negative for them

You could also be more selective as to which races you include ....... maybe just handicaps and pattern races and leave out races where you have lots of runners with no or little form in the book

any other ideas for adding a bit of nuance to the basic points system ?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

I have looked at the Fineform System ..... it's quite handy if you just want to pick selections in lots of races. I think I posted daily selections on here at one time based on the points system

But as Chris said earlier the obvious problem is that it takes no account of class and going

You could get the absurdity of a horse that had previously won a 12 furlong seller at Ascot and class 6 handicap at Brighton on it's last two runs and would be top pick for today's King George at 1000/1

So maybe a couple of refinements .......

Do the ratings and get your top rated selections then only pick them if they have won in today's class or placed in a higher class and the going is not a negative for them

You could also be more selective as to which races you include ....... maybe just handicaps and pattern races and leave out races where you have lots of runners with no or little form in the book

any other ideas for adding a bit of nuance to the basic points system ?

 

 

This is what I do. I do the ratings then head over to ATR and look at the race cards where it tells you whether they have won on going or in that class. I now avoid class 5&6 as I don’t think you can trust the horses to produce consistent form. It also narrows down races which is good imo. It’s a cracking system for giving you the basics, and horse racing is still based on the basics. I rated 6 races at York today and 3 won, so 50% strike rate with Fine Form ratings. I just picked the wrong ones to bet on. What I’ve found with Fine Form ratings since I’ve been looking into it , is that big odds run well, so definitely don’t be put off by price. 

Edited by Villa Chris
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42 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

This is what I do. I do the ratings then head over to ATR and look at the race cards where it tells you whether they have won on going or in that class. I now avoid class 5&6 as I don’t think you can trust the horses to produce consistent form. It also narrows down races which is good imo. It’s a cracking system for giving you the basics, and horse racing is still based on the basics. I rated 6 races at York today and 3 won, so 50% strike rate with Fine Form ratings. I just picked the wrong ones to bet on. What I’ve found with Time Form ratings since I’ve been looking into it , is that big odds run well, so definitely don’t be put off by price. 

The only confusion I have with your reply is the reference to Time Form ratings.  These are surely very different to Fineform Ratings.  Incidentally since you look on the ATR website you can get a pretty good idea of the 3 top rated Time Form ratings for free, if you are interested, just by looking at the the Time Form selections and the star ratings.  You won't see the squiggles or p's etc though.  It looks to me from what Trotter has said that these should be more reliable.  However, you should do what you feel is best 

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

The only confusion I have with your reply is the reference to Time Form ratings.  These are surely very different to Fineform Ratings.  Incidentally since you look on the ATR website you can get a pretty good idea of the 3 top rated Time Form ratings for free, if you are interested, just by looking at the the Time Form selections and the star ratings.  You won't see the squiggles or p's etc though.  It looks to me from what Trotter has said that these should be more reliable.  However, you should do what you feel is best 

Sorry mate, meant to say Fine Form ratings

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4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

This is what I do. I do the ratings then head over to ATR and look at the race cards where it tells you whether they have won on going or in that class. I now avoid class 5&6 as I don’t think you can trust the horses to produce consistent form. It also narrows down races which is good imo. It’s a cracking system for giving you the basics, and horse racing is still based on the basics. I rated 6 races at York today and 3 won, so 50% strike rate with Fine Form ratings. I just picked the wrong ones to bet on. What I’ve found with Fine Form ratings since I’ve been looking into it , is that big odds run well, so definitely don’t be put off by price. 

If I remember correctly the original system/ rating needed 11 cd to qualify as a 13 pointer . It's pretty basic but a good starting point , I like lto winners myself . Most bookie sites have indicators, I use sky , just tick winner lto and cd and the list pops up . Few seconds and you have the basic qualifiers.  Any running in the same class ( any class) within the last 5 days go top of the list . Any longer than 5 days you could click on its latest win and see if the 2nd and 3rd have done anything since ,if one of them has preferably won it's good form so the selection goes on the shortlist.  Another aid is b365 , find the race , click the selection and watch the video , if you see its won easily , on the list , if its scrambled home with 2 or 3 others within say half a length , omit from the list . Do you see you have used the basic criteria and quickly and easily narrowed them down to a manageable number .

This may sound patronising but it's not meant to I actually do it myself for a bit of interest when the racing is on tv . If you are just a recreational punter on Saturdays or whenever it's on TV Quite simply go on pp site or Google jason weaver tips . He usually has one in each race , take them all and do doubles , just doubles no more no less. Hes never far away and most weeks you will show a good profit for small outlay .( today just the one winner so a loss but last week he had 5 winners including a 25/1 so big profit) 

All a matter of choice but the main thing is have a plan and stick to it . Follow the rules you decide on ( write the rules down ) and dont omit something just because of the price . Make a spreadsheet, log your bets,price and  P&L , if you want to add columns like class, age , type of race distance or anything you think is relevant,  after a while you will see instantly which areas you are winning and where isn't so good . It may all sound a lot of work but actually after a while it takes no time at all. I update mine every evening with a brew. 

Good luck whatever you do  

Edited by roger2256
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I've posted up some selections on today's racing thread based on the Fineform system with some tweaks to include Class and Going .

A few top rated ones got eliminated for class or going and I stuck to handicaps so that limited the number of selections

Let's see how they get on

ps ....... I don't think we want to start posting selections on this thread otherwise it'll just end up duplicating the daily threads

 

One problem I did find was that my 'class criteria' seemed a bit too strict as there was at least one top rated horse which had won impressively in a grade lower but looked to be on the upgrade. I basically used 'had to won in this class or placed in a higher class'

I'd like to amend this to take account of horses that have won in the grade below but are lightly raced (maybe 10 or fewer career runs)

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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

I've posted up some selections on today's racing thread based on the Fineform system with some tweaks to include Class and Going .

A few top rated ones got eliminated for class or going and I stuck to handicaps so that limited the number of selections

Let's see how they get on

ps ....... I don't think we want to start posting selections on this thread otherwise it'll just end up duplicating the daily threads

 

One problem I did find was that my 'class criteria' seemed a bit too strict as there was at least one top rated horse which had won impressively in a grade lower but looked to be on the upgrade. I basically used 'had to won in this class or placed in a higher class'

I'd like to amend this to take account of horses that have won in the grade below but are lightly raced (maybe 10 or fewer career runs)

I think you have it spot on trotter to post selections on the racing thread.  It seems to me that this Fineform method is just a POINTS based system as opposed to a horse rating method as I have come to know it among the all too many ratings systems that seem to be plastered everywhere.  You are obviously tweaking it to allow for class of race etc. which is entirely sensible.  I am just wondering if you may add to your armoury taking into account the the top 3 Timeform selections as displayed on the ATR website, or at least excluding horses that do not have at least a 3 star rating when one clicks on the "racecard"  Timeform tab.  It seems to me that this may combine the points system with PROPER race ratings.  Just a thought.

 

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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I think you have it spot on trotter to post selections on the racing thread.  It seems to me that this Fineform method is just a POINTS based system as opposed to a horse rating method as I have come to know it among the all too many ratings systems that seem to be plastered everywhere.  You are obviously tweaking it to allow for class of race etc. which is entirely sensible.  I am just wondering if you may add to your armoury taking into account the the top 3 Timeform selections as displayed on the ATR website, or at least excluding horses that do not have at least a 3 star rating when one clicks on the "racecard"  Timeform tab.  It seems to me that this may combine the points system with PROPER race ratings.  Just a thought.

 

That's a possibility but instinctively I'm not keen

I think if you're using any kind of system or ratings (preferably of course your own ratings!) the idea is to have selections which are automatic depending on the criteria and are not connected to the market or expert opinion, Basically you want to throw up horses that not every one else is considering. So I'm not keen on incorporating website or newspaper tipsters

For the same reason when people do trends I'm not keen on a trend that says something like '12/20 winners were in the first 3 in the market'

I think the purpose of systems/trends is to pick horses that should be in the first 3 but aren't ..... 

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4 hours ago, Trotter said:

That's a possibility but instinctively I'm not keen

I think if you're using any kind of system or ratings (preferably of course your own ratings!) the idea is to have selections which are automatic depending on the criteria and are not connected to the market or expert opinion, Basically you want to throw up horses that not every one else is considering. So I'm not keen on incorporating website or newspaper tipsters

For the same reason when people do trends I'm not keen on a trend that says something like '12/20 winners were in the first 3 in the market'

I think the purpose of systems/trends is to pick horses that should be in the first 3 but aren't ..... 

You are right, to be successful you need to against the crowd. In particular I will oppose CD winners as they are often over-bet.

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From a few years ago, not sure if it’s been updated anywhere else, but this makes interesting read. It backs up MClarkes views on CD winners. Jiggle your points system around to suit. Also mentions moving away from sprints. I’m never that confident of a selection in a sprint as you don’t always get the time to come back from a poor break, being hampered etc. Prefer longer distance on the flats .

https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/analysing-course-and-distance-winners/

Edited by Villa Chris
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Just been looking Into today’s racing and noticed that the 3.30 at Market Rasen is down as 2m 7f and currently going described as good. Now apparently the distance is 3m 1f due to rail movements and looking at weather the going will change to Soft by 3.30 so how much would that change your selection for the race. Not one for me as less than 8 runners with a field of 6 currently and if I was a trainer would think another 1 or 2 my drop out.

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12 hours ago, Trotter said:

That's a possibility but instinctively I'm not keen

I think if you're using any kind of system or ratings (preferably of course your own ratings!) the idea is to have selections which are automatic depending on the criteria and are not connected to the market or expert opinion, Basically you want to throw up horses that not every one else is considering. So I'm not keen on incorporating website or newspaper tipsters

For the same reason when people do trends I'm not keen on a trend that says something like '12/20 winners were in the first 3 in the market'

I think the purpose of systems/trends is to pick horses that should be in the first 3 but aren't ..... 

Many thanks for your reply.

I'm not particularly fussed about all this, from what I've seen the all too many sellers of ratings services provide very little to help punters.

I just thought that if one took the top 3/4 selections of a propriety brand of ratings and then awarded and subtracted points in relation to the best recent form, class, going, trainer form, jockey form, course and distance form etc. then one may come up with some sort of better quality selections than puting too much emphasis in favour of the two most recent wins as a criterion.

I am a great believer in taking into account the market's take on the chances of a horse's chance of success as reflected in the prices on offer.  There used to be a man who collected all the information about the statistics associated with favourites etc.  These showed that there is a great deal of consistency concerning the eventual returned prices and a horse's actual chance of success.  It is much easier for me to start with the favoured market leaders and then check whether the factors outlined above favourably or adversely influence a horse's chance of success.

With regard to so called expert opinion, I do take account of this.  However, one does need to differentiate between what is relevant and what is just speculation, which, in my opinion, can be very tricky.  I much prefer reference to what a horse has recently achieved over such dubious comments such as "took the eye when running recently" or "is bound to improve for the step up in trip" or "last year it did this" etc. I like to stick with what a horse has actually achieved recently.  I still get suckered in though as I did yesterday by all the hype.  For example "More Beautiful" from Aiden O'Brien's yard was expected to do much better although it flopped big time in its previous race.  You guessed it, it just ran true to form and flopped again and finished second to last at 11/8 favourite.    

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

From a few years ago, not sure if it’s been updated anywhere else, but this makes interesting read. It backs up MClarkes views on CD winners. Jiggle your points system around to suit. Also mentions moving away from sprints. I’m never that confident of a selection in a sprint as you don’t always get the time to come back from a poor break, being hampered etc. Prefer longer distance on the flats .

https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/analysing-course-and-distance-winners/

I mentioned above that I used to think up stats to keep when I was concentrating on the all weather and one of them was CD winners at Southwell. Being the only Fibresand track I assumed that CD winners would be pretty good for betting on !

So I kept stats of how many runners at each meeting were C winners, CD winners or neither...... and of the number of winners in each of those categories

And I basically found that it made little difference to the winner  % whether the horse had won over C or CD before

I didn't keep P/L records but it would be logical to think that CD winners at Southwell are overbet

Trouble is that it's difficult to avoid that CD after horse's name if you have an 8 runner handicap and one of them has won over CD and seven haven't !........ it's always tempting to back horses to do again what they've done before

 

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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

I mentioned above that I used to think up stats to keep when I was concentrating on the all weather and one of them was CD winners at Southwell. Being the only Fibresand track I assumed that CD winners would be pretty good for betting on !

So I kept stats of how many runners at each meeting were C winners, CD winners or neither...... and of the number of winners in each of those categories

And I basically found that it made little difference to the winner  % whether the horse had won over C or CD before

I didn't keep P/L records but it would be logical to think that CD winners at Southwell are overbet

Trouble is that it's difficult to avoid that CD after horse's name if you have an 8 runner handicap and one of them has won over CD and seven haven't !........ it's always tempting to back horses to do again what they've done before

 

CD just jumps out at you doesn’t it, but if I’m being honest I’m more interested in distance winners . Like Billy said CD might come into play on some courses, but overall it can be misleading unless the horse in question has got a very prolific record at the track , but then there wouldn’t be much value maybe, but value means different things to different people. Might tweak and change a few things for Goodwood, but still be using the points system.  Not one for betting on every race unless it’s Cheltenham, so need to narrow it down. 

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This really isn't the right place to congratulate @BillyHills on his Fantasy Premier League victory, but i can't seem to find the post (or thready thingy) to say congrats. I have to say i really enjoyed it, it being my first time ever doing anything like it. But what a finish...having led for almost all the comp, to lose the lead with weeks to go and then snatch it back on the final day to win by a point!!! Not sure how many racing punters were in it but i was having my own tussle with @PercyP (not that he knew) so well done to him as well getting a top 5 finish. 

Anyway Well Done Graham on your victory :clap🏆 

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5 hours ago, LeMale said:

This really isn't the right place to congratulate @BillyHills on his Fantasy Premier League victory, but i can't seem to find the post (or thready thingy) to say congrats. I have to say i really enjoyed it, it being my first time ever doing anything like it. But what a finish...having led for almost all the comp, to lose the lead with weeks to go and then snatch it back on the final day to win by a point!!! Not sure how many racing punters were in it but i was having my own tussle with @PercyP (not that he knew) so well done to him as well getting a top 5 finish. 

Anyway Well Done Graham on your victory :clap🏆 

Thanks mate, appreciated, thought i'd blew it with a week to go.

Lucky i made De Bruyne captain on the last day, i knew he needed 1 assist to equal the record so was bound to play.
Gary was running the Fantasy thread but it fizzled out after the lockdown I think.
I'm usually crap at these things.

Just for the record:

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 19.15.15.png

 

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6 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Thanks mate, appreciated, thought i'd blew it with a week to go.

Lucky i made De Bruyne captain on the last day, i knew he needed 1 assist to equal the record so was bound to play.
Gary was running the Fantasy thread but it fizzled out after the lockdown I think.
I'm usually crap at these things.

Just for the record:

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 19.15.15.png

 

De Bruyne as captain was a master stroke and like you said won it for you. (Thanks for going down as far as 8th, i'm quite chuffed with that, probably beginners luck) Hope there's another one next season(or in a few weeks!) Do you know if there is and when it starts? 

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2 hours ago, LeMale said:

De Bruyne as captain was a master stroke and like you said won it for you. (Thanks for going down as far as 8th, i'm quite chuffed with that, probably beginners luck) Hope there's another one next season(or in a few weeks!) Do you know if there is and when it starts? 

Sept 12th I imagine, will let you know:ok

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9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well, Stradivarious did win but not as good as Ascot.  I had a good run for my money though.  Well done to Stradivarious, I do hope that the owners and trainers will put up up more competition for the horse in the future, if it is kept in training.

 

He did very well I thought with being boxed in like that. Dettori would have been worried at one point . 
 

He’s going for the Arc , just been confirmed by Gosden 

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On 7/25/2020 at 6:49 PM, Trotter said:

I have looked at the Fineform System ..... it's quite handy if you just want to pick selections in lots of races. I think I posted daily selections on here at one time based on the points system

But as Chris said earlier the obvious problem is that it takes no account of class and going

You could get the absurdity of a horse that had previously won a 12 furlong seller at Ascot and class 6 handicap at Brighton on it's last two runs and would be top pick for today's King George at 1000/1

So maybe a couple of refinements .......

Do the ratings and get your top rated selections then only pick them if they have won in today's class or placed in a higher class and the going is not a negative for them

You could also be more selective as to which races you include ....... maybe just handicaps and pattern races and leave out races where you have lots of runners with no or little form in the book

any other ideas for adding a bit of nuance to the basic points system ?

 

 

I used to use Fineform years ago, for the life of me I can't remember the guys name but his advice was look closer at the top 3 rated and make a decision based on other factors from those top 3

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On 7/23/2020 at 9:22 PM, Trotter said:

I'll watch with interest !

One thing I did notice was that in his handicap runs he's always weakened at the end of the race .. maybe he's still a bit immature and will improve naturally as he grows into himself and strengthens up? 

His 3 handicaps have seen him beaten 22L, 10L, 7L so he is getting closer ! ....... 

Entered on Thursday evening at Musselburgh in a handicap, yes over 7f again and guess who is also in the entry list again, yes good old Rebel Soldier Boy. I feel like we seem to be following him around. He holds 3 other entries at the weekend.

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