GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

[MCLARKE]

I have had a look at my data and I was surprised at how few distance winners there were. Having analysed my data source it appears that they measure a distance to the nearest yard. So if a horse wins at a distance of 2 miles and 1 yard and then runs at a distance of 2 miles and 2 yards it is not classed as a distance winner. 

This seems ridiculous but I suppose it is technically correct.

[The Equaliser]

JUST RECEIVED NOTIFICATION FROM BET365 THAT I NO LONGER QUALIFY FOR BOG ALONGSIDE OTHER OFFERS!!!

I wouldn't mind if I had been hammering them with loads of profits. This is not the case.

Just wondering if other members have been hit with this rubbish and Bet365 are merely trying to bolster their profits everywhere.

 

 

[alancraik]

Could anyone point me to a user friendly site for horse racing stats ans data.

[Villa Chris]

I’ve rated the 2.25 class 2 handicap at Newbury for Friday . 
 

Top two rated are 

San Benedetto 20.5

Oldgrangewood 20.2

Ive done my own tissue for the race. San Benedetto is currently 8/1 and the bookies give him an 11.11% chance of winning. I’ve actually got him down as a 15.8% chance of winning. Oldgrangewood the bookies have him 9/2(18.18%) chance of winning. I’ve got him only at 15.6% chance of winning. So basically San Benedetto is not only slightly top rated, but I also have him as my bet because it’s value?  
 

I’m also assuming Oldgrangewood isn’t value ? 

Edited November 25, 2020 by Villa Chris

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, alancraik said:

Could anyone point me to a user friendly site for horse racing stats ans data.

Alan, are you looking for a site that offers free data or are you prepared to pay for it ?

[alancraik]

both, as long as it is user friendly, not up to all this modern stuff, I use a piece of paper at the moment a jot down the info

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, alancraik said:

both, as long as it is user friendly, not up to all this modern stuff, I use a piece of paper at the moment a jot down the info

Same here ? got notepads and pieces of paper lay about the house with horses names and numbers jotted on.  Wouldn’t know where to start with a having it all put on computer, although it would be quicker no doubt. 

[alancraik]

2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Same here ? got notepads and pieces of paper lay about the house with horses names and numbers jotted on.  Wouldn’t know where to start with a having it all put on computer, although it would be quicker no doubt. 

I image you are an elderly person like myself, all this new technology, got a I phone recently had to take a blood pressure tablet and a lie down, found a use for it though excellent as a weight for keeping the racing pages open

[Villa Chris]

20 minutes ago, alancraik said:

I image you are an elderly person like myself, all this new technology, got a I phone recently had to take a blood pressure tablet and a lie down, found a use for it though excellent as a weight for keeping the racing pages open

Not quite, I’m 37.  Just not clued up with modern technology. 

[alancraik]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Not quite, I’m 37.  Just not clued up with modern technology. 

sorry about that you are only a youngster, not an old b****r like me

[Tedthewolf]

Three fallers today that might  be worth keeping an eye on  in the near future imo.

 Potterman-Difinitly  Red-Shantou -Vllage 

 

[Villa Chris]

3 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Three fallers today that might  be worth keeping an eye on  in the near future imo.

 Potterman-Difinitly  Red-Shantou -Vllage 

 

I fancied Definitely Red today. There were three fallers in the last race at Newbury, too with two of them being main players. Been a funny old day. 

[Villa Chris]

Think I’m going to freshen myself up and try again next Friday/Saturday. Need to narrow down my selections. Never feel comfortable backing 5/6 horses or even more which is sometimes the case.  Even 4 is probably too much for me. Instead of trying to work out tricky handicap races I’m going for a Nap and NB approach. Two selections maximum on a Saturday with just the one on a Friday if I see something I really fancy. I’ve also been spending a bit more than I like to, because I have so many selections, so limit selections and add an extra 5 points to those selections to increase it from 10 points a horse to 15 points. 

[Tedthewolf]

23 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I fancied Definitely Red today. There were three fallers in the last race at Newbury, too with two of them being main players. Been a funny old day. 

Yeah was a lot of fallers today  it was good ground too, strange.

I liked the way Potterman was travelling  only thing is i think he  is due to go up 5lb in the future.

Shantou Village is on a  nice  mark fell early in his race.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[Tedthewolf]

17 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Think I’m going to freshen myself up and try again next Friday/Saturday. Need to narrow down my selections. Never feel comfortable backing 5/6 horses or even more which is sometimes the case.  Even 4 is probably too much for me. Instead of trying to work out tricky handicap races I’m going for a Nap and NB approach. Two selections maximum on a Saturday with just the one on a Friday if I see something I really fancy. I’ve also been spending a bit more than I like to, because I have so many selections, so limit selections and add an extra 5 points to those selections to increase it from 10 points a horse to 15 points. 

Good luck with that Chris.

[Villa Chris]

11 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Yeah was a lot of fallers today  it was good ground too, strange.

I liked the way Potterman was travelling  only thing is i think he  is due to go up 5lb in the future.

Shantou Village is on a  nice  mark fell early in his race.

Yep, these old boys their  mark keeps falling and you can get nice odds on them.

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Three fallers today that might  be worth keeping an eye on  in the near future imo.

 Potterman-Difinitly  Red-Shantou -Vllage 

I think the fact that horses have fallen or unseated rider puts people off them so they often represent good value when they run next time.

I noticed there were a couple on the TV races today, FLASHTHESTEEL won at 12/1 and THE HOLLOW GINGE placed at 50/1, hardly a representative sample but food for though and something else I need to look at in a bit more detail.

[Tedthewolf]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I think the fact that horses have fallen or unseated rider puts people off them so they often represent good value when they run next time.

I noticed there were a couple on the TV races today, FLASHTHESTEEL won at 12/1 and THE HOLLOW GINGE placed at 50/1, hardly a representative sample but food for though and something else I need to look at in a bit more detail.

Yeah i would agree with that. The hollow ginge was nibbled at was as big as 100/1 early doors ran a cracker. I also agree with Chris older horses well handicapped  are worth a punt there is one running in the  2.05  at Fairyhouse thats upped in  trip cheek pieces put on  last 2 runs PP but over the years has run some cracking races in these sort of handicaps  is well capable of running a big race tomorow  hoping to get 66's BOG 5 or 6 places  we will see  General principle you call the horse well worth a couple of quid e/wi imo.

Edited November 29, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[Wildgarden]

On 11/24/2020 at 3:57 PM, The Equaliser said:

JUST RECEIVED NOTIFICATION FROM BET365 THAT I NO LONGER QUALIFY FOR BOG ALONGSIDE OTHER OFFERS!!!

I wouldn't mind if I had been hammering them with loads of profits. This is not the case.

Just wondering if other members have been hit with this rubbish and Bet365 are merely trying to bolster their profits everywhere.

 

 

They'll want people to do inplay sports where they make most there money and stop people profiting on bog long-term ;-( milk them for what you can then go exchanges or high street shops.

[Wildgarden]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I think the fact that horses have fallen or unseated rider puts people off them so they often represent good value when they run next time.

I noticed there were a couple on the TV races today, FLASHTHESTEEL won at 12/1 and THE HOLLOW GINGE placed at 50/1, hardly a representative sample but food for though and something else I need to look at in a bit more detail.

Since 2012 Across all prices; Fell returns 98.9% to Betfair starting price. Pulled up is 91.2%. this is hurdles and chases. Massively profitable is national hunt flat races at 189.9% return but only because of some big priced winners. 

If restricting to only up to 14-1 starting price, returns 100.3% Betfair starting price. Notable profitable race types from fallers and pulled up are novice handicap hurdles and novice handicap chases at 110% and 115% return to Betfair starting price with fell giving a better return on investment. Problem is keeping an eye on the starting price to cover the horses you want to. This can be a good starting point though.

[Villa Chris]

Think I overacted  a bit on Saturday. Looking back on my selections I found some positives with how I rated them. One was bang at it but a bad mistake second last cost him. I had a selection that finished second by a length that went off at 16/1. Copperhead pulled up early again  which definitely indicates something isn’t right there. Russian Doyen fell whilst seeming to be travelling well. My main selection which was Botox Has was disappointing, mind. On another day who knows. One thing I did notice by doing my own odds for the races that I rated, was how some favourites get squeezed of value. Some no doubt justify being so short , but others should be better value. It could be coincidence and mean nothing but I seen a couple of times where horses were really short and didn’t justify the odds. I’ll play again at the weekend but will narrow it down to 3 selections maximum on Saturday. 

[Trotter]

I used to do ratings for the all weather racing ...... probably kept it up for 4 or 5 years and used to store the rating on the Racing Post form pages. So for some horses I'd have a rating for several dozen past races. The rating was for each individual run rather than a master rating for the horse.

What I found was that the ratings themselves were a handy tool and gave me a quick angle into the race

But the main point was that by doing the ratings and then looking at the past ratings for todays runners I was spending time assessing past performances and that gave me a framework to put today's race into a context of what the horses had achieved previously 

My main thing has always been looking for patterns in a horse's form and having the ratings helped with that

 

[Villa Chris]

It’s the next step for me Trotter. I love the sport and always had a thing for numbers, so it goes hand in hand. Would like a quicker way of doing it, as pen and paper is time consuming. We all try and improve our game don’t we. 

[Trotter]

2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

It’s the next step for me Trotter. I love the sport and always had a thing for numbers, so it goes hand in hand. Would like a quicker way of doing it, as pen and paper is time consuming. We all try and improve our game don’t we. 

I never got into spreadsheets and all that ....... too complicated !

 

[Villa Chris]

5 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I never got into spreadsheets and all that ....... too complicated !

 

Yeah it seems it. Quite like my Friday nights with notepad and pen anyway. 

[MCLARKE]

On 11/28/2020 at 7:58 PM, Villa Chris said:

Think I’m going to freshen myself up and try again next Friday/Saturday

It's easy to become disillusioned when you have a bad run but unfortunately that's the nature of the beast.

I had an excellent October but November has been very disappointing despite a couple of longshots obliging.

For some reason November tends to be a poor month for me but December is a lot better so roll on tomorrow.

I will be having a look at Nicky Henderson's runners in December, he is the most profitable trainer to follow according to my records but beware his favourites !

[Villa Chris]

32 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

It's easy to become disillusioned when you have a bad run but unfortunately that's the nature of the beast.

I had an excellent October but November has been very disappointing despite a couple of longshots obliging.

For some reason November tends to be a poor month for me but December is a lot better so roll on tomorrow.

I will be having a look at Nicky Henderson's runners in December, he is the most profitable trainer to follow according to my records but beware his favourites !

It was just a case of the last 2-3 weeks too many selections on a Saturday and nowt to show for it. The hours spent sorting them out and the roller coaster ride of watching them lose. Spent a bit more than I like to, as well.  From now on I’m cutting down on selections which will mean staying within my money limit, and instead of being glued to the tv on a Saturday, I’ll keep myself busy. I enjoy watching racing anyway regardless of whether I’ve had a bet or not, but when there’s money involved it gets the old heart rate  going and then comes the crash if you’ve had 5-6 selections on a Saturday and all have lost. Got to take the rough with the smooth I know. 
 

Maybe the wonderful horses that we bet on are proper racing fit by December, so that may show up in your profits. I’m surprised how many jump horses even late November have yet to race that season. Paul Nichols has got off to a good start. I could be wrong but doesn’t he usually take time to warm up? 

[MCLARKE]

2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Spent a bit more than I like to, as well.

My main source of income is the investments I have on the stock market. Horse racing is just a hobby but I probably spend a lot more time on the horses than I do on my stock investments. It's a lot more fun.

[Villa Chris]

5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

My main source of income is the investments I have on the stock market. Horse racing is just a hobby but I probably spend a lot more time on the horses than I do on my stock investments. It's a lot more fun.

To be honest mate I don’t look at horse racing as a way of adding to my income . It’s become a bit of a hobby now. It’s overtaken football now, which I’ve completely fell out of love with. Without being nosey but how hard/easy is it to make a living on the stock markets? I take it you have retired from full time work. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Villa Chris

[MCLARKE]

Yep I retired from work a few years ago. It is easier to make money on the stock market than horse racing but you need to know what you are doing. I am at an advantage because I have a financial background. It is also easy to lose money, I lost about 30% of my investment when the virus hit in February / March. I've made most of it back but it was an uncomfortable time (certainly worse than losing a horse race!.)