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GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT


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For all owners , syndicate owners , stable staff , breeders I hope he's stripped of his license completely , you shouldn't make a joke of a tragedy if a Grade 1 or Class 6 horse they all deserve a bit

Noticed that the 2 year old race at Bath today was 'Restricted to Horses in Band D' I've had a look at what this means and it seems that the BHA have redesigned 2 year old maiden and novice races

Love this on so many levels. Educational purposes and also the love the jockey has for the horse. Frodon cam view gold cup.  https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/ondemand/103267

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I used to subscribe to the Fineform Weekly News, I was very naïve in those days. Never made any money from it, I think I wrote to him complaining about it and he responded that it was having a temporary bad run but that it would recover, I subscribed for a year and it never did. 

I also have one of his books that he used to write each year, this had a system based on trainers but again was never successful.

I think he's dead now sadly.

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43 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I used to subscribe to the Fineform Weekly News, I was very naïve in those days. Never made any money from it, I think I wrote to him complaining about it and he responded that it was having a temporary bad run but that it would recover, I subscribed for a year and it never did. 

I also have one of his books that he used to write each year, this had a system based on trainers but again was never successful.

I think he's dead now sadly.

https://www.gamblingsites.org/biographies/clive-holt/

For anyone interested

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I’ve tweaked that system about a bit. 

1st, 5 (7 points if horse won more that 2 lengths lto 

2nd ,3 points(providing lto there was more than 4 horses running. If not, then no points)

3rd, 2 points( providing lto there was more than 7 horses running. If not then no points)

4th , 1 point(Providing lto there was more than 10 runners. If not then no points)

CD, 3 

Distance ,2

Course ,1 

Going , 2(Providing horse has won more than once on the going. No points if not)

Class , 1 point 

 

Tried that out today . 2/5, so will see how tomorrow goes . Forgot to put selections up today as been really busy at work. Got 5 days off now. 

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2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

I’ve tweaked that system about a bit. 

1st, 5 (7 points if horse won more that 2 lengths lto 

2nd ,3 points(providing lto there was more than 4 horses running. If not, then no points)

3rd, 2 points( providing lto there was more than 7 horses running. If not then no points)

4th , 1 point(Providing lto there was more than 10 runners. If not then no points)

CD, 3 

Distance ,2

Course ,1 

Going , 2(Providing horse has won more than once on the going. No points if not)

Class , 1 point 

 

Tried that out today . 2/5, so will see how tomorrow goes . Forgot to put selections up today as been really busy at work. Got 5 days off now. 

Well good luck with it. 

It seems a bit harsh not to give any points if a horse at least won once on the Going.  Some experts say that the going or extreme changes in it can seriously affect a horse's chances.  Some trainers frequently pull horses out of a race because of changes in the going.

With courses, it may be good to allow for horses that have won on different types of surfaces e.g. Turf, All Weather (and these tracks vary also).
Over the jumps it may pay to differentiate between hurdles, chase and/or NHF races.

With regard to class, I'm not sure what you mean by one point.  Is this awarded because a horse is running in the same class or has dropped a grade.  It occurs to me that there should be no points for a horse in the same class, one for a drop in grade and, perhaps minus one for a horse being upped in grade.

I do wish you all the best with this whatever you do but I would urge you to keep stakes low until you feel confident about the system working profitably.  There is of course some quite big changes to racing coming up with the main flat season not lasting for too long now and of course we have the nursery races that seem to have loads of runners.  Also there is a change over to the jumps season occurring quite soon.

In any event enjoy your 5 days off, I'm sure that you have worked hard for it ☺️

 

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12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well good luck with it. 

It seems a bit harsh not to give any points if a horse at least won once on the Going.  Some experts say that the going or extreme changes in it can seriously affect a horse's chances.  Some trainers frequently pull horses out of a race because of changes in the going.

With courses, it may be good to allow for horses that have won on different types of surfaces e.g. Turf, All Weather (and these tracks vary also).
Over the jumps it may pay to differentiate between hurdles, chase and/or NHF races.

With regard to class, I'm not sure what you mean by one point.  Is this awarded because a horse is running in the same class or has dropped a grade.  It occurs to me that there should be no points for a horse in the same class, one for a drop in grade and, perhaps minus one for a horse being upped in grade.

I do wish you all the best with this whatever you do but I would urge you to keep stakes low until you feel confident about the system working profitably.  There is of course some quite big changes to racing coming up with the main flat season not lasting for too long now and of course we have the nursery races that seem to have loads of runners.  Also there is a change over to the jumps season occurring quite soon.

In any event enjoy your 5 days off, I'm sure that you have worked hard for it ☺️

 

You’ll get a lot of horses that have won on most goings. Some that prefer it soft may have won a few time’s on Good. I just think having a horse that’s won more than once on a certain going indicates that it can run well on that going. As for the class I’d award a horse a point if it’s won in that class or above before.  I’m just tinkering about with stuff , but using the fine form points model. Only did some low stakes today. I’ll do same tomorrow. 
 

Yeah off to the seaside for a few days to blow the lockdown cobwebs away. 

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Hi VC,

Is it possible for you to post up your selections and results under Racing Chat for each day, e.g today's heading was Racing Chat Wednesday 29th July ATR PL forum.  Obviously tweaks and and amendments to your system can quite rightly be placed here should you welcome anyone else's comments or opinions

   

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I am fed up with trying to find bargain outsider selections but will do so for the 30th and 31st July.

After that I am going take a different tack.  I will just be looking at favourites from up to three meetings.  I will then decide either to back the favourite, lay the favourite or just not back/lay at all.  This should be fun.  I will only be placing £2.11 on either a win or lay bet.  I can't paper trade as I have said before. With the win bets I will also include them in my multiple selections so as to try and clear the on going deficit.  Don't know when I will clear the singles deficit as I suspect that my lay bets will exceed my win bets.  This is because more favourites lose their races whether in handicaps or not.

I am going to run this as a trial throughout August and see how it goes.

The idea behind this is to sharpen my betting skills in relation to selecting the best favourites to back and finding weak favourites that lose.  The larger liability on my lay bets will hopefully be matched by my selecting horses that fail to score 🤞

 

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi VC,

Is it possible for you to post up your selections and results under Racing Chat for each day, e.g today's heading was Racing Chat Wednesday 29th July ATR PL forum.  Obviously tweaks and and amendments to your system can quite rightly be placed here should you welcome anyone else's comments or opinions

   

Yes , will do. 

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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I am fed up with trying to find bargain outsider selections but will do so for the 30th and 31st July.

After that I am going take a different tack.  I will just be looking at favourites from up to three meetings.  I will then decide either to back the favourite, lay the favourite or just not back/lay at all.  This should be fun.  I will only be placing £2.11 on either a win or lay bet.  I can't paper trade as I have said before. With the win bets I will also include them in my multiple selections so as to try and clear the on going deficit.  Don't know when I will clear the singles deficit as I suspect that my lay bets will exceed my win bets.  This is because more favourites lose their races whether in handicaps or not.

I am going to run this as a trial throughout August and see how it goes.

The idea behind this is to sharpen my betting skills in relation to selecting the best favourites to back and finding weak favourites that lose.  The larger liability on my lay bets will hopefully be matched by my selecting horses that fail to score 🤞

 

Good luck

For quite a long time my basic method was to look at small field races and try to find false favourites, Small field races are particularly good ground for this as I reckon favourites are overbet in small fields because people think 'they've only got 4 or 5 to beat'

So I'd be looking for favourites at tracks that might not suit, maybe up in class, not sure to get the trip or generally horses who had an easy win last time in different conditions........ alternatively horses who were noted as being 'all out' when winning last time

Another advantage of looking at small fields is that you can do half a dozen races in the time it takes to do one big Saturday handicap

Of course at the moment there's not many small field races at most meetings but maybe something to bear in mind when racing gets back to normal

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44 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Good luck

For quite a long time my basic method was to look at small field races and try to find false favourites, Small field races are particularly good ground for this as I reckon favourites are overbet in small fields because people think 'they've only got 4 or 5 to beat'

So I'd be looking for favourites at tracks that might not suit, maybe up in class, not sure to get the trip or generally horses who had an easy win last time in different conditions........ alternatively horses who were noted as being 'all out' when winning last time

Another advantage of looking at small fields is that you can do half a dozen races in the time it takes to do one big Saturday handicap

Of course at the moment there's not many small field races at most meetings but maybe something to bear in mind when racing gets back to normal

Many thanks Trotter, always offering sound advice to us PL members.

I have for a long time been interested in the "lay" side of betting.  Most sellers of "lay" betting systems boasting claims of 90+ success rates invariably put up selections up to 10/1 in the betting market.  I will try to take on the favourites and accept that some of them will win and dent profits but this is should be less hurtful than being hit with 10/1 winners. Also, combining this with also backing what is deemed to be favourites having a strong chance of winning seems to be the way to go.

I will keep every one posted throughout July as to my progress.  I will try to list my reasons for the lay bets and the win bets but it depends on the time available.

 

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16 hours ago, Trotter said:

For quite a long time my basic method was to look at small field races and try to find false favourites, Small field races are particularly good ground for this as I reckon favourites are overbet in small fields because people think 'they've only got 4 or 5 to beat'

You are right, if laying you would make a small profit in fields of less than 8 runners, albeit not enough to cover the 2% commission.

Other areas to consider are heavy going (9% profit), debut runners (3% profit) and 7lb claimers (10% profit).

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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

You are right, if laying you would make a small profit in fields of less than 8 runners, albeit not enough to cover the 2% commission.

Other areas to consider are heavy going (9% profit), debut runners (3% profit) and 7lb claimers (10% profit).

With all these pointers I'm bound to be successful.  Very many thanks 

Ps Do you get your stats from the Adrian Massey database?  I thought that he had stopped doing it but notice that there are now stats from 2010 to 2019. A mine of information

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14 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Ps Do you get your stats from the Adrian Massey database?  I thought that he had stopped doing it but notice that there are now stats from 2010 to 2019. A mine of information

I have taken my data from the Race Advisor website. A lot of data on there, you have to sort the wheat from the chaff. It's quite expensive, I took advantage of a discount rate and I'll see if I can use it to make a profit before deciding whether to continue to subscribe.

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BACKING AND LAYING HORSES FROM 1.8.20

From tomorrow I will be focussing on both backing and laying horses.  Ideally, these should be favourites but in practical terms, I will include 2nd and 3rd favourites.

On the “lay” betting side I will consider very, very carefully before laying horses over the price of 5/1 (6.0) on the Betfair Exchange. Sometimes you will see I say “unmatched” This means that I have requested a price and it is not yet matched).  I usually request this with an “in running” option checked. This is because I don’t like taking a Betfair “lay” price that exceeds the largest bookie’s price on Oddschecker.  I will, of course, account for the selection should the price get matched, win or lose.  

I will be using standard stakes of £2.11 whether backing or laying.  £2.11 yields £2.00 after commission should one of my lay bets win (i.e. lose the race).  This is a trial initially running throughout August.  I will try to evaluate up to three of the main meetings each day.  The decision will be; Back/Lay OR No Bet.  I am not backing odds on horses but may lay a horse if it’s slightly odds on and I feel that it will lose.

Some “laying” notes from my PL colleagues:

Lay favourites in small fields.  The favourites are usually overbet when they only have 4/5 to beat.

Look for favourites not suited by the race track; up in class; not sure to get the trip; one that won easily under different conditions and, one that was all out when winning last time. (Trotter 30.7.20)

Laying in small fields of less than 8 runners makes a small profit; though not enough to cover 2% commission.  Other areas to consider are heavy going (9% profit), debut runners (3% profit) and 7lb claimers (10% profit).  (M Clarke 31.7.20)

Equaliser  “Back “ and “Lay”  criteria 31.7.20    A = Positive  B = Negative

1A  Competition. (there are not more than three other selections with two or more experts supporting them

1B  Competition. (there are more than three other selection with two or more experts supporting them

2A  Horse has very good recent form

2B  Horse disappointed last time out and/or has poor recent form; conditions are not too different today.

3A Horse is reliable and a battler who almost always tries to win

3B Horse is unreliable and is very difficult to win with

4A Horse has had a recent outing and is running well

4B Horse is unraced or has been on a long absence and is not know to run well fresh

5A Horse is carrying a penalty and looks to be able to cope with it

5B horse is carrying a harsh penalty or looks to have been marked up harshly

6A  Horse proven to act well on the going that is declared for the day

6B  Horse not proven on today’s going.  Extra care when the going is Heavy.

7A  Horse has won off this mark before and race conditions suit today

7B  Horse has never won off this mark but has raced off it more than once

8A Horse has proven winning form at the distance of today’s race

8B Horse is running at a different distance today, little evidence to suggest it will run any better

9A  Horse has proven to run well at this/similar course (s)

9B  Horse has shown it is not suited to this type of race track

10A Horse is upped or in the same class but is still improving

10B Horse is dropped in class and although its mark is sliding recent form is not good

11A Horse is running on the same type of surface that it has produced good form

11B Horse is running on a different surface and it is unknown how it will run

12A Horse is running under the same code where it has performed well

12B  Horse is running under a different code e.g. Flat to Jumps & vice versa + poss Chasing to Hurdling etc.

13A The trainer is in great current form, with a good track, code and age statistics

13B The trainer is currently in the doldrums and has a bad track, code and age statistics

14A The jockey is in good form with, good track, code, age and distance statistics

14B The jockey is in bad form with a bad track, code age and distance statistics

This is not a points system.  It is a balancing act between what is good about a horse’s chance of winning and what is not.  Whilst running the trial I will be listing the pro’s and cons of each selection and choosing the horses that I estimate to have either the best chance of winning or losing.  It will be interesting to keep notes of the horses that have pro and negative points and the decision I make in selecting them.

I hope that I have included the most relevant points concerning a horse either winning or losing a race.  I welcome comments as regards to what is considered to be important omissions or helpful suggestions that I should add to my criteria.  My main aim is to improve my skill at both selecting winners and false favourites.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I have taken my data from the Race Advisor website. A lot of data on there, you have to sort the wheat from the chaff. It's quite expensive, I took advantage of a discount rate and I'll see if I can use it to make a profit before deciding whether to continue to subscribe.

Many thanks.  I once signed up to Michael Wilding's service for a a silly amount like £1.  I have never seen so many ratings and statistics.  However, I could not get on with any of them and the selections recommended by his methods did not seem to me to bear any relation to the main contenders in most races.  I think that you would like the Adrian Massey statistics.  They used to be free and the owner only requesting a charitable donation if one found them useful.  I don't know if this is still the case?

 

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2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Do you pay 5% commission with Betfair? I only pay 2%.

Betfair quite often charge me over 5%,  But to be honest I don't do much with them.  I suspect that you must do quite a lot of turnover.  Also, I know when I was looking at trading on Betfair a chap who was very good at it had to pay a premium on winnings for using the service 

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6 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

betfair > exchange > my account > my betfair account > promotions and rewards > my betfair rewards(beta) > choose basic plan

image.png.52f277f3ee0309f8417fd20cb126a7d6.png

Many thanks VT, I've changed the plan; effective 1.9.20, hopefully will have to pay 2% comm from then (as @mclarke).  I had previously changed it to 5% because I wanted BOG on sportsbook but that isn't so important now.  Betfair give all sorts of reasons when they over charge commission such as transacting on small bets etc.

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STAKING ON MULTI- SELECTIONS IN ONE'S CHOSEN RACE TO IRON OUT THE UPS AND DOWNS OF PROFITS

I was pretty miffed yesterday when my favourite selections just let me down for my multiples and to some extent singles.  Obviously it is the way of the world in horse racing that what we expect to happen just does not happen.

From today I am going to change tactics slightly by just accepting that this is the case and although still including by and large favourites for my multiples I will also include one/two/three other bets in the same race so as to cover myself when all goes wrong with the favourite.  I am hoping that this will not only prove to be profitable but fun as well.  I remember last Saturday in the Stewards cup when I had £1 on a fancied horse and two 50p win bets on other horses that appeared to have a good chance.  What, wonderful entertainment it was on only risking a total of £2.  Sorry if small stakes seems insignificant to big stakes players, however, as far as I'm concerned one has to prove that one's strategy is profitable over a period of time before lumping on. 

I welcome anyone's thoughts on this such as "Dutching"  strategies etc.

 

   

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This is a points system that I have been using with mixed success, seems to work better in class 3 and better races.

My Points System.  

Last run, win = 30. 2nd = 21. 3rd = 18, 4th = 9
2nd last run, win = 20. 2nd = 14. 3rd = 12, 4th = 6
3rd last run, win = 10. 2nd = 7. 3rd = 6, 4th = 3


18 points for win over Course & Distance
18 points for win at Course but Distance elsewhere
6 points for C
12 points for D

12 points if forecast price less than 3/1
9 points if forecast price less than 6/1
6 points if forecast price less than 10/1

12 points if running within 15 days
9 points if running within 30 days
6 points if running within 50 days

Any thoughts or ideas will be gratefully received.

Edited by Benchley
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4 hours ago, Benchley said:

This is a points system that I have been using with mixed success, seems to work better in class 3 and better races.

My Points System.  

Last run, win = 30. 2nd = 21. 3rd = 18, 4th = 9
2nd last run, win = 20. 2nd = 14. 3rd = 12, 4th = 6
3rd last run, win = 10. 2nd = 7. 3rd = 6, 4th = 3


18 points for win over Course & Distance
18 points for win at Course but Distance elsewhere
6 points for C
12 points for D

12 points if forecast price less than 3/1
9 points if forecast price less than 6/1
6 points if forecast price less than 10/1

12 points if running within 15 days
9 points if running within 30 days
6 points if running within 50 days

Any thoughts or ideas will be gratefully received.

I think that you would do well to read the info on the first 3 pages here regarding the Fineform system.  Good advice from @Trotter and @BillyHills regarding courses.

I like the bit about points for forecast price (though I think I would prefer to use actual prices on offer from the Oddschecker website.  I feel that accounting for what is happening in the betting market is very important and shows one has a grip on reality

Points for race fitness also appeals to me.

1st, 2nd and 3rd on the last run doesn't appeal to me unless you are taking into account whether the horse has achieved the figures in the same class.

The course and distance factor has seen much debate earlier.  Most courses where sprints are run (5 - 7 furlongs ) seem to be straight runs, though the gradients can of course be different.  I tend to prefer horses that have won over a specific distance only from the point of view that they have proved they can do it.  I hate all the conjecture about bound to improve over the extra yardage, crying out for an extra furlong etc.  Whilst this may be true I would not put my money on a journalist's recomendation and of course we can't ask the horse.

I hope that some of this information may be useful

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Benchley said:

I have tried many times laying favourites but always hit a winning streak which wiped out weeks of profit.

I am currently having a go at this.  I know its tricky but I feel if one tries to find a good criterion for laying horse it also assists in deciding whether or not to back other horses (including favourites)

I found an old system about laying the second favourite the other day.  I think that if I were to use it I would prefer to check out the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite.  Anyway, as I'm not yet desperate I will continue in my quest of mainly laying the favourite and sometimes the second favourite should the price not be too big and it seems a better lay bet than the first favourite.

   

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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have tried many times laying favourites but always hit a winning streak which wiped out weeks of profit.

Overall favourites perform better than non favourites so from a laying perspective you are at a disadvantage to start with.

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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

 

Overall favourites perform better than non favourites so from a laying perspective you are at a disadvantage to start with.

I'm not really a fan of those kind of stats

My view is always that those 5 years worth of favourites that the stats are based on are not running in the 6.40 at Kempton tonight !

But overall I think that about roughly a third of favourites ? ....... which means two-thirds don't

The trick is to find the favourites that won't win ....... the shorter the odds the better. That's where your skill comes in ...... finding those horses that are favourites but maybe shouldn't be because there's something in their form or run style or in todays conditions which makes you think they won't win

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