BillyHills Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Big Handicap at Newmarket on Saturday 4.10 Bunbury Cup Trends 8/10 Drawn double figures ( 2,4,5,7,11,12,13,15,16,18) 10/10 ran within 6 weeks (all qualify) 8/10 Finished outside top 3 last time out (2,5,9,12) 10/10 Aged between 4 and 6 (all except 2,8,19,20) 10/10 Rated 101 or lower (everything lower than 7) 10/10 Carried over 9st (everything over 9) EW bets Cardsharp 25/1 bet365 No Nonsense 50/1 Hills yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 The Aussie action in Melbourne and Sydney this week comes from Caulfield and Rosehill respectively and I have bets in 3 races from each venue. Caulfield R4 (4.35am) Ballet Master is the pick here as I like the form of his win at Randwick last time. The horse he beat Bandersnatch also runs tomorrow at Rosehill and I think he will win tomorrow although won't be tipping him up as he is too short a price. With more rain forecast if the track gets into the heavy range then we know that he handles it which would be a concern for some of his main rivals here. Ballet Master @ 7/1 with Betfair Caulfield R7 (6.35am) The feature race on the card and if it does get into the heavy range then Jungle Edge will be a big danger, but for me Viridine can beat him anyway. He finished 1 place in front of Jungle Edge in the June Stakes which was a strong race. He followed that up with a win at Randwick and looked good in doing so as well. That was in a Heavy 9 so really testing ground wont bother him. I think he will take a sit behind Jungle Edge and then pounce in the home straight. Viridine @ 6/4 with Bet365 Caulfield R8 (7.10m) Knowles looks over priced here at double figures. She ran really well last time at Moonee Valley against the track bias and she was still in last place at the 400m marker. Her final 200m was only beaten by the winner. She ran really well over course and distance back in April on a Heavy 8 as well and a repeat of either of those efforts will see her go close. The concern is the draw as she is in 16 and will likely be ridden for luck again. Still at the price I am happy to take a chance. Knowles e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill (4 places only 3 places in Australia as it stands) N/R Rosehill R2 (3.10am) Given I was going to put up New Arrangement last week when he was a non-runner you would think I would be putting it up here, but there are a couple I prefer. My Swashbuckler is another to come from Europe having been trained in France. I thought he ran a huge race on his 2nd start in Australia at Randwick last time. At the 400m he was in 12th and didn't get into the clear until 350m out. Once in the clear he finished off the race well to finish 3rd. That was over 1600m and he now goes up to 2000m which will be ideal. He looks to have a cracking chance. I am also going to back Korcho who was trained by Hughie Morrison and a year ago ran a really good 2nd at the July meeting over the same trip as today. He's had two starts in Australia and he was given a bit of a quiet ride first up before finding all sorts of trouble at Randwick last time. On his UK form I think he has a real chance in this and better ground is going to help as well. Fulmina is a warm favourite after an impressive win last time and is clearly a danger, but for me the value is elsewhere. My Swashbuckler @ 5/1 with everyone Korcho e/w @ 18/1 with Betfrred Rosehill R7 (6.15am) I was on Trumbull last time when he finally decided to leave the stalls at the right time and he duly scored. If he starts like that again I think he has a good chance of following up because he is clearly in flying form this prep. The previous start he finished 2nd and Noble Boy was back in 3rd. I am adding him to the bets as well because he raced on the slower part of the track that day so you can upgrade his level of performance. Clearly on that effort those two aren't going to be far from each other. Trumbull @ 14/5 with Bet365 Noble Boy @ 5/1 with Bet365 Rosehill R8 (6.55am) Kordia could be hard to beat here, but I think the value is elsewhere in the shape of Inanup. I really liked his 1st up run when he was 2nd to the very progressive Adelong. He came from the back that day and had to come the widest of all. He had good pieces of form last prep as well and with a better draw the hope is he can sit a bit closer to the pace than he was able to last time when he was drawn out wide. He should also come on for that run as well and he is at a price we can back him e/w. Inanup e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and Betfred vikki37, yossa6133, blueboy199 and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Keeneland sees 6 Graded races Delaware sees 2 Graded races Woodbine sees 1 Graded race , I'll be sticking to & watching the US Racing tomorrow , good luck having a punt on the good to soft at Ascot & HQ . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) Bunbury Cup CARD SHARP 28/1 1/4 4pl BOG KEYSER SOZE 25/1 1/4 4pl BOG 3.50 SD FINAL VENTURE 16/1 1/4 4pl BOG Edited July 10, 2020 by Tedthewolf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Bunbury Cup picking on the following basis 4 and 5 year olds drawn high have won over the trip trainer has at least 15% win to run ratio in last 2 weeks This left me with 4 ......... I've dumped Cardsharp because he looks out of form and everyone else has picked him ........ ? So 3 against the field Mutaamasik - win 5/1 bet365 Ariogato - EW 10/1 bet365 Blackheath - EW 33/1 Coral 5 points staked Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 3/5 on the Aussie front and another massive profit to wake up to. Korcho the star of the show winning at 18/1 BBBC, Tedthewolf and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 nice one Darran ! Darran 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Aww..... just seen that Jackie Charlton has died RIP Big Jack ....... another Legend of '66 gone..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Trotter said: Aww..... just seen that Jackie Charlton has died RIP Big Jack ....... another Legend of '66 gone..... Leeds have lost some legends over the last few months . black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 1.30 Ascot , Island Brave 11/1 e/w 3.15 Ascot , Lord Glitters 8/1 Double 14/1 12.15 , Newm, Future Investment 1.50, Newm, Finest Sound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old codger Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) Hi all My next selection 335 Newmarket Golden Horde 1pt win 5/2 hills bog Expect this classy individual to cement his reputation here. Just not quite good enough on the day. Start bank 100 W12 L9 Bank 112.95 Just reviewing things since I started posting on here. 21 selections with a strike rate of 57% is pretty much how this selection process I have been following has shown its value. I was hoping for around 50-60% and so pleasantly at the upper end. Only around half a dozen selections each month and sometimes less than that but patience is the key in betting. I have set aside a decent bank to place on these selections. The key with any such bank is that it has to be money you are prepared to lose and definitely not money you need for everyday living. Gambling under financial pressure is the road to ruin and if you are gambling under such pressure it is time to accept you have to stop and probably seek some help before it becomes overwhelming. Edited July 11, 2020 by Old codger Update LeMale and yossa6133 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) Today's Trixie 12.25 Asc Bobby On the Beat 7/4 £2 win 1.30 Asc Apperate £2 win at 3/1 2.05 Asc Malinkova £2 win at 11/4 One £1 win Trixie = £4 v £77.56 1.50 Nm Haqealy £1 win at 11/2 1.50 Nm Surf Dancer 50p at 9/1 1.50 Nm Dogged 25p win at 50/1 12.10 Nm Fantastic Blue 50p win at 16/1 4.10 Nm Tomfre 50p win at 9/1 (I think it will drift) 4.10 Nm Spanish City 50p win at 16/1 Singles stakes = £9.25 Multiples = £4.00 = Total stakes £13.25 A very tough day and I drew a blank £9.25 loss on singles = Balance C/Fwd £378.80 (Bank £400) £4.00 Loss on multiples = Balance C/Fwd £642.04 (Bank £800) Just as the bookies won't lose any sleep tonight, neither will I. Only one class 3 race tomorrow though. I can't do anything worse Edited July 11, 2020 by The Equaliser Results update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Spanish city 4 10 new 1/2 pt win @ 22/1 betfair Escape to the city 1/2 pt @ 14/1 betfair P/L account + 120.75 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 410 newm bunbury cup Blown by wind 229 Spanish city 227 Arigato 224 Spanish city is marginally better at 6f but stays 7f on good day so interesting.....blown by wind met all sorts of trouble last time behind arigato and with a 6lb pull he should really beat that one with a clear run .... 2 against field Spanish city 10pts win 19.5 betfair Blown by wind 10pts win 11.0 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 3.50 SD- RFC FINAL VENTURE & SONE OF DESTINY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 5 hours ago, Old codger said: Hi all My next selection 335 Newmarket Golden Horde 1pt win 5/2 hills bog Expect this classy individual to cement his reputation here. Start bank 100 W12 L8 Bank 113.95 Just reviewing things since I started posting on here. 20 selections with a strike rate of 60% is pretty much how this selection process I have been following has shown its value. I was hoping for around 50-60% and so pleasantly at the upper end. Only around half a dozen selections each month and sometimes less than that but patience is the key in betting. I have set aside a decent bank to place on these selections. The key with any such bank is that it has to be money you are prepared to lose and definitely not money you need for everyday living. Gambling under financial pressure is the road to ruin and if you are gambling under such pressure it is time to accept you have to stop and probably seek some help before it becomes overwhelming. Well said. I would add that the key to survival of remaining as a long term punter is self discipline and money management. Much more difficult to be successful in making profits over a long period of time though that should be the driving force behind any serious punter's intentions. Nothing wrong with anyone setting aside £10, £20 etc of ones hard earned cash to enjoy an afternoon's entertainment in going to or watching horse racing or anything else. As any content pussy cat will tell you; you need purr-spective Unfortunately there is no hope for a compulsive gambler anywhere in sports or any other type of betting. Even when they win they will just keep betting more and more until they lose everything that they have. Far better for them to abandon betting and take up a different hobby and life style altogether Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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