FleetFanatic Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 (edited) Well I'm back for my annual trip into at the races on Punters Lounge. As you check from last year's thread, the ratings I calculate got 1st, 4th & 5th, the year before it got 6 of the first 7 home, so we have high hopes again. So I have started compiling the ratings for this year, as it's just over 2 weeks away. Slowing working my way down the Racing Post racecard in numerical order. *LIST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR BRISTOL DE MAI WITHDRAWAL/ALL WEIGHTS UP 4LBS*ANIBALE FLY 90 VALTOR 49 TIGER ROLL 81 OUTLANDER 56 DON POLI 83 GO CONQUER 67 MALA BEACH 76 MINELLA ROCCO 83 LAKE VIEW LAD 74 PLEASANT COMPANY 92 BALLYOPTIC 74 DOUNIKOS 83 RATHVINDEN 74 ONE FOR ARTHUR 67 ROCK THE KASBAH 92 WARRIORS TALE 90 REGAL ENCORE 81 MAGIC OF LIGHT 65 A TOI PHIL 63 JURY DUTY 92 NOBLE ENDEAVOR 81 MONBEG NOTORIOUS 72 RAMSES DE TEILLEE 70 TEA FOR TWO 74 STEP BACK 92 ULTRAGOLD 65 BLOW BY BLOW 63 UP FOR REVIEW 72 SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 92 VIEUX LION ROUGE 99 VALSEUR LIDO 74 VINTAGE CLOUDS 83 GENERAL PRINCIPLE 99 LIVELOVELAUGH 81 WALK IN THE MILL 99 FOLSOM BLUE 72 CAPTAIN REDBEARD 63 BLESS THE WINGS 70 JOE FARRELL 83 JUST A PAR 63 Last updated 04/04/19 Edited April 4, 2019 by FleetFanatic Updating with latest 40 runners black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alastair Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Connections have said Elegant Escape misses the race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Tiger Roll at 4/1 has to be a total joke. So many things can happen in the Grand National, but I'm of the opinion no horse should be less than 8/1 in the National - 4/1 is lay of the century considering there's 40 horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 (edited) Indeed, updating as we speak. Had high hopes for Royal Vacation with a 99 rating & that one is gone too. Edited March 20, 2019 by FleetFanatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 Will have the rest done this weekend, been a busy day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) Wasnt gonna post yet but prices are plummeting fast .... Rated Top 5 so far Yala enki 313 Jury duty 310 Tiger roll 308 Step back 306 Ms parfois 305 Lake view lad 303 Yala enki 313 Jury duty 310 Tiger roll 308 Step back 306 Anabale fly 306 Ms parfois 305 Lake view lad 304 Yala enki is probably better over shorter...is well weighted hence high rating but I think national could be a step too far but ew material passible ....initially the stand out horse looks to be jury duty for Gordon elliot .....has had the ideal prep and has everything you want in a national horse ....can he win it again ....33/1 currently looks outstanding value ......will create a tag team but with prices dropping fast I've posted early and will update later Jury duty 10pts ew 33/1 bet365 nrnb Edited March 22, 2019 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 22, 2019 Author Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) Updated shortlist in new post Edited April 1, 2019 by FleetFanatic Updated shortlist in new post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 14 hours ago, FleetFanatic said: Current Top 40 all rated, a shortlist of 9 at moment. (In 2017 there were 10 shortlisted, in 2018 there were 6 shortlisted, so 9 isn't unexpected.) Will update as & when needed. So, you will be backing 9 horses, yeah?? Think you need an extra filter to narrow it down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 23, 2019 Author Share Posted March 23, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, BillyHills said: So, you will be backing 9 horses, yeah?? Think you need an extra filter to narrow it down 2 years ago, bet365 did a place a bet get a free bet, so I covered all 10for the price of 5. Last year they did a place a bet, get half your stakes back, so if you recall from that thread I added your 60 day filter to those rating 80 & covered 9 runners (and only won with the 90+ ones anyway.) Happy to wait for an offer again... Edited March 23, 2019 by FleetFanatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanotherdonkey Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 I have backed step back two weeks ago @40-1 and just hoping for a bit of luck but good luck with what ever you are backing as it is a bit of a lottery. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 24, 2019 Author Share Posted March 24, 2019 On 3/20/2019 at 4:18 PM, Sir Puntalot said: Tiger Roll at 4/1 has to be a total joke. So many things can happen in the Grand National, but I'm of the opinion no horse should be less than 8/1 in the National - 4/1 is lay of the century considering there's 40 horses. Here's an interesting one. If Bristol De Mai doesn't run, then all the weights go up by 4lbs I believe. If that is the case then Tiger Roll would not qualify on my trends calculations. To score 90+ they can only fail one trend & TR would suddenly fail a 2nd one. The stats I use are based around this information; since changes were made to the course in 2013 & are based on the winning horses & all placed horses that were within 10 lengths of the winner.Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 17/17 Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 16/17 Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 16/17 Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 16/17 Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 16/17 Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 15/17 Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 15/17 Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 14/17 Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 14/17 Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 13/17 Although my scoring calculations are based on 2 years ago when it added up to 99, I can't bring myself to calculate a new points threshold when it still worked out last year. A simpler way would be to say that since 2013, 5 of the 6 winners (the last 5) & 8 of the 11 placed horses (those that finished within 10 lengths of winner) have either met, or failed just one of the above trends. The exclusions are as follows: Winner: AURORAS ENCORE (2013) Placed: SAINT ARE (2015 & 2017) and PLEASANT COMPANY (2018) Hope this helps understand where the figures have come from. They are still subject to change as I imagine around a quarter of the runners could yet still change. yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 27, 2019 Author Share Posted March 27, 2019 (edited) On 3/24/2019 at 11:07 PM, FleetFanatic said: Here's an interesting one. If Bristol De Mai doesn't run, then all the weights go up by 4lbs I believe. If that is the case then Tiger Roll would not qualify on my trends calculations. To score 90+ they can only fail one trend & TR would suddenly fail a 2nd one. So it happened. I'll update the first post with the current revised ratings. According to these trend ratings, Tiger Roll will not win The Grand National. Edited April 1, 2019 by FleetFanatic Updated shortlist in new post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOSBOR Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 never mind tiger roll my selection is the stables other runner jury duty rated 92 by you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 31, 2019 Author Share Posted March 31, 2019 Trainer talk:"Shattered Love and The Storyteller won't run. Alpha Des Obeaux is out too as he has pulled a muscle, while Mala Beach's participation depends on the ground and he might need some rain." I'll update the ratings to take account of the first three mentioned tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Latest Decs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Previous Winners & Trends 9/10 ran within 2 months We lose Valtor, Go Conquer, Pleasant Company, One For Arthur, Rock The Kasbah Step Back, Just A Par, 8/10 Rated 148 or above We lose Utragold, Pairofbrowneyes, Blow By Blow, Up For Review, Singlefarmpayment, Viuex Lion Rouge Valsuer Lido, Vintage Clouds, General Principle, Livelovelaugh, Walk The Mill, Folsom Blue, Bless The Wings 7/10 Carried less than 11st 5lbs We lose Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll, 14/22 Placed in first 4 last time out We lose Warriors Tale, Magic Of Light, A Toi Phil, Tea For Two 15/22 Aged 8,9 or 10 We lose Outlander, 19/22 Ran at least 4 times this season We lose Mala Beach, Don Poli, Minella Rocco, Lake View Lad, Ballyoptic, Rathvinden, Regal Encore, Noble Endeavor, Monbeg Notorious, Mall Dini 19/22 Won over 3m1f or more We lose Ramses De Teillee, Sandymount Duke Selections 1pt EW Dounikos 40/1 Hills 1pt EW Jury Duty 25/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 So I'm back to 10: ANIBALE FLY 90 PLEASANT COMPANY 92 ROCK THE KASBAH 92 WARRIORS TALE 90 JURY DUTY 92 STEP BACK 92 SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 92 VIEUX LION ROUGE 99 GENERAL PRINCIPLE 99 WALK IN THE MILL 99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 (edited) Although I will be looking for an offer where I can cover them all, I guess when you look at weight carried & Official Rating, these 4 look most appealing:PLEASANT COMPANY 92 ROCK THE KASBAH 92 WARRIORS TALE 90 JURY DUTY 92 Edited April 1, 2019 by FleetFanatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 12 hours ago, FleetFanatic said: Although I will be looking for an offer where I can cover them all, I guess when you look at weight carried & Official Rating, these 4 look most appealing:PLEASANT COMPANY 92 ROCK THE KASBAH 92 WARRIORS TALE 90 JURY DUTY 92 Interesting ....and I never back a horse in the national who hasn't run within 42 days so pleasant company and rock the kasbah are gone on my list leaving 2 warriors tale and jury duty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 2, 2019 Author Share Posted April 2, 2019 On 3/23/2019 at 8:46 PM, FleetFanatic said: Last year they did a place a bet, get half your stakes back, so if you recall from that thread I added your 60 day filter to those rating 80 & covered 9 runners (and only won with the 90+ ones anyway.) They appear to be doing the same offer from Thursday, ending midday Saturday. https://extra.bet365.com/promotions/en/horse-racing/grand-national-money-back-offer/?affiliate=365_858551 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartrum Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 (edited) Your lucky to still have a 365 account. A few winning weeks and they got rid of me. Great write ups fleet fanatic and good luck. I will cover your selections as you have convinced me. cheers Edited April 3, 2019 by bartrum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 3, 2019 Author Share Posted April 3, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, bartrum said: Your lucky to still have a 365 account. A few winning weeks and they got rid of me. I don't use them much, I don't bet on the horses much. I use coral or betvictor for football, depending on odds (taken 2k from coral since xmas in 2 decent wins, only do a fiver a week lol) Anyway, updated the first post to account for Captain Redbeard in / Sandymount Duke NR Edited April 3, 2019 by FleetFanatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 With all the changes and weights etc finished my final national rating Jury duty 315 Anabale fly 314 Vintage clouds 310 Theres now a gap from these 3 to next horses .....so from my ratings point of view I'd expect the winner to be one of them ....makes the 33 took on jury look pretty amazing and gonna hedge bets on other two on betfair at 17.0 and 18.5 ....3 against field .....time for war vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 4, 2019 Author Share Posted April 4, 2019 All 10 I have listed are covered. 6 e/w bets, half stakes returned, used on 3 e/w bets, half stakes returned, used on 1 e/w bet, half stakes returned. At this point what is left will go on my weekend football bet. 10 horses covered for the price of 6 & my football bet free, basically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 My ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 5, 2019 Author Share Posted April 5, 2019 (edited) I may have made a miscalculation on something according to the author I borrowed these from. As a result Lake View Lad, Dounikos, Rathvinden & Vintage Clouds have to re-enter calculations. I will explain tonight. I might just covered the 4 extra on the half stakes offer. I mean 14 runners for the price of 7 overall isn't bad. Edited April 5, 2019 by FleetFanatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronxie Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Someone explain the B365 offer to a simpleton. Do I have to deposit and wager £250 to get £125 withdrawable cash back or can I deposit £125 and place one bet at a time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 6, 2019 Author Share Posted April 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Bronxie said: Someone explain the B365 offer to a simpleton. Do I have to deposit and wager £250 to get £125 withdrawable cash back or can I deposit £125 and place one bet at a time? You can place bets one at a time. They must be done e/w though I have 14 horses covered now for the price of 7. No brainer. The cashback credited immediately. Sorry I haven't explained myself this evening as promised, had some bad news to deal with & now drowning my sorrows. The short version is I have included/excluded a couple of things in places that needed tweaking. It means there was an overlap to some horses, and a few that would change. Bets were placed, so all I could do was add the 4 extra. 14 runners it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 (edited) 9 hours ago, Bronxie said: Someone explain the B365 offer to a simpleton. Do I have to deposit and wager £250 to get £125 withdrawable cash back or can I deposit £125 and place one bet at a time? It says "they aim" to refund you the cash within 2 hrs so it might be best to do it all in one go by depositing the 250 as the offer stops @ 11:59:59 today and you may not get your refunds back in time if you are placing bets on several horses. T & C 's Hope that helps Edited April 6, 2019 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 (edited) Bit of fun for you trend guys The number of words in a horse’s name: 1 word = 4 points 2 words = 3 points 3 words = 2 points 4 words = 1 point The number of letters in a horse’s name: 8 or 10 letters = 4 points 7 letters = 3 points 6 or 11 letters = 2 points 9 or 12 letters = 1 point The first letter of a horse’s name: The letter R = 4 points The letters A, S or M = 3 points The letters C or T = 2 points The letters G, B or W = 1 point The age of the horse: 9-years-old = 4 points 10-years-old = 3 points 8- or 11-years-old = 2 points 12-years-old = 1 point TOP 10 Edited April 6, 2019 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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