Lincoln Handicap Tips & Trends 2018

[BillyHills]

Flat racing starts on Saturday with The Lincoln

Done the last 15 years winners;

Key trends :

14/15 Not had a prep run on the AW
14/15 Carried 9st 4lbs or less
12/15 Aged 4 or 5
11/15 Favourites beaten
9/15 Drawn double figure stall
14/20 Had won over a mile
12/20 Finished in first 4 last time out

[BillyHills]

315 Newbury

2m4½f (2m4f118y) EBF & TBA Mares' "National Hunt"Novices' Hurdle Finale (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2)(Class 1) (4yo+)

Key Trends:

10/10 Ran within 44 days
9/10 Aged 6 or under
8/10 Rated in the 120's
6/10 Carried between 10-12 and 11-3
17/20 Had ran more than 3 times this season
14/20 Finished first 4 last time out

 

[Xtc12]

5 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Flat racing starts on Saturday with The Lincoln

Boooo 

[BillyHills]

9 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Boooo 

 Its alright for you I have to select tips for each race 

[richard-westwood]

Current ratings top 22 ....

Addeybb   379

Kings gift    372 

Repercussion   365 

Tbh ....combination of top rated and haggas makes this a no brainer bet for me at 8/1 with paddyp .... just looks a fabulous ew bet ......rock n roll ...lets kick off the flat

Addeybb 10pts  e w  8/1 paddyp ....I'm tempted to go 20pts  ew but I'll wait for confirmed runner first just in case then increase stake .....kings gift has chances and is vastly overpriced at 33/1  ...lively ew bet....but haggas has a good record in race so top rated for me 

 

[Tedthewolf]

Really fancy  last year winner BRAVERY but unlikely to get in needs 8 to come out which  is a shame is best priced 28/1 but  bookies aint doing  NR no bet yet once they do ill be having a decent e/w bet on it likes the track and soft ground isnt a problem will carry less than he did when winning last year big big chance imo if he gets a run

[Bubbles180]

My Big 2 For Saturday

Kynren (Silver Cup)

Fire Brigade (Lincoln)

Edited March 22, 2018 by Bubbles180

[richard-westwood]

On 20/03/2018 at 6:30 PM, richard-westwood said:

Current ratings top 22 ....

Addeybb   379

Kings gift    372 

Repercussion   365 

Tbh ....combination of top rated and haggas makes this a no brainer bet for me at 8/1 with paddyp .... just looks a fabulous ew bet ......rock n roll ...lets kick off the flat

Addeybb 10pts  e w  8/1 paddyp ....I'm tempted to go 20pts  ew but I'll wait for confirmed runner first just in case then increase stake .....kings gift has chances and is vastly overpriced at 33/1  ...lively ew bet....but haggas has a good record in race so top rated for me 

 

Happy with addebb.....I was going to double stakes ...but soft ground and draw 10 not perfect .....so I'll couple him with Chelsea lad ..drawn 14 .....he' 4th rated but has the potential to improve with conditions perfect ....so at 20/1 he's looking a sporty saver bet in the mid to high draw.....I'm happy with those two 

Chelsea lad 10pts ew 20/1wh 

[richard-westwood]

I have original choice clear top rated for silver cup with kynren 2nd rated ....agsinna haggas horse top rated .....he' in Lincoln betting but not currently in race ....can' be coincidence....is he organising some sort of coup ?.....its a huge double .....what the hell I'm in !!! ...wait til he' confirmed .....I like kyren too ...improving type.....

[Trotter]

The Lincoln

picked out some trends .......

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher

Application of these trends has left me with quite a long short list of six

Chelsea Lad, Not So Sleepy, London Protocol, Grey Britain, Fire Brigade, Leader Writer.

All of them have form on soft or good to soft ground which doesn't help

I'm deleting as follows 

Grey Britain and London Protocol, been running in Meydan and getting well beaten

Chelsea Lad - 12lbs higher than last win in a handicao

Not So Sleepy - this trip is really too short even with cut in the ground. Could have an EW squeak at a very big price if it's s hectic pace (which it's bound to be!)

Big field to I'll pick 3

Win - Fire Brigade at 11/2

EW - Leader Writer at 16/1

EW Longshot - Not So Sleepy - EW at 50/1

 

 

 

[wardysufc]

After looking over the trends i have two horses highlighted and that is LEADER WRITER & ADDEYBB. Going with the former as its almost double the price.

[Tedthewolf]

Bravery gets in by the skin of his teeth 22 of 22  all the 28/1 &  25/1 gone in a flash generally 16/1 now with NRNB still a very good price in my world have had  a e/w bash on it  as i really fancy it a lot  last years jock desserts it for trainers other horse which is 2nd fav but im sticking with Bravery. Stall 1 isnt  not a problem imho as last year he was drawn high but was kept to the back early and switched  sides  came with a  late rattle this ground will suit carrying  4lb less this year i think this bottom weighted 5yo  is a really good solid  e/w bet in the race.

Good Luck All

[BillyHills]

14/15 Not had a prep run on the AW
We lose BIg Country, Gabrial, Dark Red, London Protocol, Grey Britain, Leader Writer. Hayadh

14/15 Carried 9st 4lbs or less
We lose Lord Glitters, Mitcham Swagger, Ballard Down, Dolphin Vista

12/15 Aged 4 or 5
We lose Via Via, Not So Sleepy, Donncha, Withernsea

9/15 Drawn double figure stall
We lose Bravery, Repercussion, Kings Gift, 
 

4 left: Fire Brigade, Chelsea Lad, Stamp Hill and Addeybb

14/20 Had won over a mile
We lose Stamp Hill

Considering the last 7 winners have started at double figure odds i'm leaning towards Chelsea Lad

Chelsea Lad EW 16/1 Paddy Power

[Xtc12]

Just had a quick look at this and at the moment I have it down to 7

Mitchum Swagger, Ballard Down, King's Gift, Adeybb, Repercussion, Stamp Hill, Fire Brigade

Will delve deeper tomorrow.

[Trotter]

3.15 Newbury

12/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
12/13 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
9/13 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks

The last 11 winners carried 11-3 or less in weight

Not overly keen on 'days since last run' but had to include it to get down to a reasonable number

Using the above I have 3  - Kaloci, Lostnfound and Jubilympics

I'm losing Jubilympics because she was well beaten last time in her first handicap run and seems better going right handed

Selections

Kaloci EW at 14/1

Lostnfound - EW at 12/1

 

[richard-westwood]

Going with the double .....kenryn and original choice in spring mile ...with abbydd and Chelsea lad in Lincoln ....still think haggas is trying a fast one with both his horses top rated in both races ....ew to be safe 

4x5pt ew doubles 

Edited March 23, 2018 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

My Ratings on the Lincoln

 

[Xtc12]

3.35 – 32Red Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4
15/15 – Aged 6 or younger  (4,18,19)
14/15 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight   (1,2,3,5,6,7)
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m before   (9,11)
12/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before  (17)
11/15 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher  (15,21,22)
10/15 – Having their first run of the flat season   (10,12,13,20)
8/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before   (14)
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Officially rated between 95-98 (8)
7/15 – Placed first or second last time out   (16)

Left with two horses : Chelsea Lad @ 20\1 (6  places) and Stamp Hill @ 33\1 both 1 Pt EW

3.15 - EBF & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
12/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old   (1,7,16)
12/13 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)   (9,10,11)
9/13 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks   (2,3,4,5,6,8,13)
8/13 – Aged 6 years-old   (14)

This leaves : Kaloci @ 20\1 Paddy power and Jubilympics @ 50\1 Paddy Power both 1 Pt EW

[Snert]

 

I could’nt pick a winner to save my life at the moment but for what it’s worth I think any one of the first 4 in the betting could win this.

So – mainly because of the price I’m having a small e/w on Leader Writer at 11/1

[Valiant Thor]

My top 5 rated for the Lincoln

Not having a bet in this lottery

But If I was a win bet on Addeybb and ew savers on  Via Via & Repercussions at 33/1 and 20/1

[BillyHills]

315 Newbury

Key Trends:

10/10 Ran within 44 days
We lose Sunshade, Roksana, Lady Of Lamanver, Petticoat Tails, Black Tulip

9/10 Aged 6 or under
We lose Midnight Tune, Bee Crossing

8/10 Rated in the 120's
We lose If You Say Run, Oscar Rose, Kaloci, Lostnfound, Jubilympics

6/10 Carried between 10-12 and 11-3
We lose Jet Set, Just A Thought

17/20 Had ran more than 3 times this season
14/20 Finished first 4 last time out

2 selections

EW Sensulano 12/1 bet365
EW Kalahari Queen 9/1 bet365

[Bubbles180]

2 hours ago, BillyHills said:

315 Newbury

Key Trends:

10/10 Ran within 44 days
We lose Sunshade, Roksana, Lady Of Lamanver, Petticoat Tails, Black Tulip

9/10 Aged 6 or under
We lose Midnight Tune, Bee Crossing

8/10 Rated in the 120's
We lose If You Say Run, Oscar Rose, Kaloci, Lostnfound, Jubilympics

6/10 Carried between 10-12 and 11-3
We lose Jet Set, Just A Thought

17/20 Had ran more than 3 times this season
14/20 Finished first 4 last time out

2 selections

EW Sensulano 12/1 bet365
EW Kalahari Queen 9/1 bet365

Had Sensulano on my tracker for a while needs step up in trip but pace and ground could bring his stamina in to play here

[jtw1]

The Lincoln
-----------

Traditional opener of the Flat season and i dont remember ever finding the winner but the funs in the trying !!!

Settled after much gnashing of teeth on Wm Kight's fairly lightly raced BALLARD DOWN .
Now a 5yo this will be only his 11th run under rules ...described in Kights website as backward as a 2yo [ran twice] then 'having a few niggling problems as a 3yo ' [ran 3 times] he then 'came back a lovely strong looking 4yo and won twice ..a Class 3 Handicap on a mark of 85 then a Class 2 at Newmarket on SOFT ground off a mark of 93.
He has taken a hike in the ratings and is now on 102 but as he is very lightly raced for his age i'm hoping he is capable of defying it today .
H Bentley was on board in both his victories and is on top again today.
The trainer has had one winner and and narrowly beaten 2nd [hd] in the past 14 days .
Drawn nicely in stall 17 [those either fairly low or high seem to have an advantage over the years] i'll take the 14/1 on offer generally

[Valiant Thor]

This week Im not doing trends using horses names

( though the 2nd top rated did place at a reasonable price ).

Going a bit more practical this week draw bias using Impact values

For those who haven't a clue what they are

IV of 1.00 is average for that characteristic we are looking at

IV of 1.25 is 25% above average etc

IV of 0.75 is 25% below average etc

Overall there have been 385 races over the straight mile (not just the Lincoln)

Of these races there has been 4225 horses which actually raced

So lets see if any track bias exists using the starting stall numbers

As you can see there is a clear Bias from Stalls 1-8 with Stall 16 being the only outlier  (there's always one )

In the totals on the top R/H side they show simply selecting stalls 1-8 you have a 22% better chance than average (random selections) just from these selection (shouldn't be stated as variance actually just in case the pedantic pick up on it)

Lets graph the results using the Pareto principle (80/20) it gives a better visualization than just numbers

Pareto states 80% of wealth is owned by 20% of the people and blah blah blah

Using that principle we can get rid of all on the R/H side 12,19,11,15,14,13,17,22,18,21

The lines actually cross on stall 2 which leaves 20,10,9 as grey area

That leaves 5,6,4,7,3,8,2 (discounted outlier 16 & no1 NR)

Leaving 7 horses having an above average chance of winning using stall bias alone.

when I use IV for my own betting I use several variables plus PIV's (A/E) it gives a very accurate map of a race and usualy narrows it down to 1 or 2 runners.

The above is just fag packet maths to give a bit of an idea.

At least you get to visualize the statistical relevance rather than the 8/10 cats prefer whiskers method

Forgot to mention

IV for pace @ Doncaster

Front Runners/Pace  .075 or -25% from average

Off the pace 1.21 or 21% above average

Mid To rear 1.12 or 12% abve average

Held up .85 or 15% below average

For me personally That leaves 4 & 8 would be ew selections

If those figures are used (All depending on how you personally judge the pace of the race of course)

 

 

Edited March 24, 2018 by Valiant Thor
pace IV's

[skylark2009]

Nice post @Valiant Thor

The going today is described as soft (heavy in places) after the first race. So the low draw should be even more favourable.

Edited March 24, 2018 by skylark2009

[snappidragun]

On 3/22/2018 at 12:34 PM, richard-westwood said:

Happy with addebb.....I was going to double stakes ...but soft ground and draw 10 not perfect .....so I'll couple him with Chelsea lad ..drawn 14 .....he' 4th rated but has the potential to improve with conditions perfect ....so at 20/1 he's looking a sporty saver bet in the mid to high draw.....I'm happy with those two 

Chelsea lad 10pts ew 20/1wh 

Many Many thanks Richard followed your reasoning and confidence...well done..

[richard-westwood]

On 20/03/2018 at 6:30 PM, richard-westwood said:

Current ratings top 22 ....

Addeybb   379

Kings gift    372 

Repercussion   365 

Tbh ....combination of top rated and haggas makes this a no brainer bet for me at 8/1 with paddyp .... just looks a fabulous ew bet ......rock n roll ...lets kick off the flat

Addeybb 10pts  e w  8/1 paddyp ....I'm tempted to go 20pts  ew but I'll wait for confirmed runner first just in case then increase stake .....kings gift has chances and is vastly overpriced at 33/1  ...lively ew bet....but haggas has a good record in race so top rated for me 

 

Well  considering the ground any result is good......120 pts returned from this plus about 25 for the ew double with kynten.....so cant' complain at all ....over the moon with that 

[donal]

well done richard

[BillyHills]

Well done those on Addeybb

[Alastair]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Well  considering the ground any result is good......120 pts returned from this plus about 25 for the ew double with kynten.....so cant' complain at all ....over the moon with that 

Excellent again. I was on the second at 6/1 who went off 9/2 favourite so confident that bets like that will be profitable in the long run but as your ratings showed the winner was very well handicapped.