Australian Open 2018

[WinningTipster]

 

2 PICKS FOR WTA AUSTRALIAN OPEN:
KERBER-FRIEDSAM 2:0 SETS @ 1.45 pinnacle
SVITOLINA-JOROVIC 2:0 SETS @ 1.3 pinnacle
expect two easy 1st round wins for the favorites who already showed some great form in 2018.

[four-leaf]

Cedric-Marcel Stebe to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.50 with bet365

Gonna have a try on C-MS here. He retired in Doha first round after losing first set to Andrey Rublev and Max lost in the same event in straight sets to Matteo Berrettini in qualifiying. None of these guys are big time hardcourt players especially not Max since all he's done is winning a few challengers on clay. I'll regret myself if I don't pick C-M to win if he wins and I didn't pick him so I have to take this bet. Head-to-head it's 1-0 C-MS after he won in straight sets on clay in challenger Sibiu in september last season. C-MS is underdog here because he retired in his last match in Doha and in Antwerp first round in october last season. I'll take my chances with C-MS and hope he is 100% otherwise he'll probably retire.

[four-leaf]

Filip Krajinovic has withdrawn and Matteo Berrettini has takes his spot and at least one more player is out since Peter Polansky comes in as a lucky loser but I don't know who he replaced.

[CzechPunter]

Yen-hsun Lu. But it somehow got changed around so it's Pospisil who plays Cilic now.

[LePapo]

The draw is complete and tomic will have enough time to count his millions lol. These qualifiers/Lucky losers change nothing so i'll stick to my analysis. I've found unibet pays 25 on simon to reach SF and thats a pretty good deal. I'll have one bet on harrison to reach SF at 50, i think he won't get past cilic in an eventual match but i'll ride my luck with just half a unit. In the second quarter i think anderson is the best bet if you want to oppose dimitrov and kyrgios. And finally i'll try with goffin to win his quarter

0.5 units on Simon to reach SF at 25

0.25 units on Harrison to reach SF at 50

1.5 unit on Anderson to reach SF at 10

1.5 unit on Goffin to reach SF at 7

For tonight I fancy a couple of players. Cuevas is clearly a clay court player and it seems he doesn't like conditions here, last year i saw him tanking against schwartzman so he's not to trust on hard courd imo. Youzhny is not the same player he was a few years ago but he can still hit a ball. I'd call this match 50-50 but odds favour cuevas so i'm betting against the house in this match.

And I like millman, he's been playing some decent tennis, should have beaten dimitrov in brisbane (although it's true that dimitrov played a horrible match) and should've beaten muller in sydney just that he choked the first set and then it was all over. Also i like the fact that aussies overperform in front of their public. Coric has lost his three matches here (Dolgo Ramos Chardy) so at 2.10 i'm happy to bet on millman

And finally I think Istomin has a decent chance to progress, only issue is that he retired in his last match but i think it was more a precaution than other thing. He faces herbert who is mainly a doubles player. If istomin plays like he did in Brisbane i think there's nice value on him. 

I'm considering +10.5 games SET 1 shapo-tsitsipas but i havent decided yet.

Good luck for everyone during this fortnight

Edited January 14, 2018 by LePapo

[Senking]

Bhambri vs. Baghdatis - Bhambri to win @2.10 with Bet365

The first bet I took on this forum lost, so hoping for better luck now. Bhambri has come through qualifying and is very used to the courts and heat which is a big factor in Melbourne. He's a great retriever and decent shot maker. He was former junior number 1 and now he's making his way back up after several injuries, talent level a top 50 in my opinion. He's a pretty cool, casual guy. Against him Grand Old Daddy, who's won a match in the exhibition but I don't count it much. He's very up and down in matches and I don't think can last 5 sets in his first match of the year. Towards the end of last year, his level of play had dropped appreciably and I can't see it getting any better. It may be a long match, but Yuki should prevail in the end.  

[four-leaf]

What do you mean with +10.5 games on shapo-tsitsipas?

[LePapo]

3 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

What do you mean with +10.5 games on shapo-tsitsipas?

Yeah it is a bit confusing, i should have written +10.5 games on set 1. 

[CzechPunter]

to the forum @GiantPanda and good luck!

[ivanhoe]

Puig - Stosur over 21,5

I expect a close match between these two.Puig is a solid hard court player while Stosur with plenty of experience on AO.We could easily watch 3 sets tonight.

Bertens - Bellis  2

I watched Bellis last week and I really like her style - calm, cool and with nice array of shots.Bertens is not an easy opponent for the first round of a Grand Slam tournament but I believe Bellis is simply a better player.

Kontaveit - Krunic 2

I`ll back Serbian player in this duel.She leads 1-0 in H2H but I dont think that`s crucial.Krunic has improved a lot and I think she`s right when she says last season was succsessful for her.She`s fully motivated for this one and she`s shown by now that she knows how to play on hard court.I`m not saying it`ll be an easy match for Krunic but I believe she`ll prevail in the end.

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by ivanhoe

[owenclass]

Well the Australian Open is here again and there some bets that have a good chance of happening

Marin Cilic to win first quarter 9/2 paddy power

Jack Sock to win second quarter 12/1 paddy power

Alexander Zverev to win third quarter 3/1 paddy power

Juan Del Potro to win fourth quarter 5/1 paddy power

David Goffin to win fourth quarter 7/1 paddy power 

 

Simona Halep to win first quarter 21/10 paddy power

Karolina Pliskova to win first quarter 3/1 paddy power

Angelique Kerber to win second quarter 3/1 paddy power

Elina Svitolina to win third quarter 2/1 paddy power

Coco Wandeweghe to win fourth quarter 4/1 paddy power

 

I do fancy most of these players to go through their quarters as some players are carrying injuries or have just come back from injury

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Well, alright guys, only a few minutes to start. Good luck everyone!

[teddybear3011]

Why was the game of Y.Lu vs M. Cilic cancelled? Anyone knows? Thanks

[teddybear3011]

and this match S.Tsitsipas vs D.Shapovalov sounds an interesting one . I put all my hope on the greek god :))) Tsitsipas should win.

 

[CzechPunter]

Lu withdrew, it's already been mentioned.

[teddybear3011]

2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Lu withdrew, it's already been mentioned.

ok, thank you. Probably missed the update then.

[owenclass]

David Ferrer vs Andrey Rublev

Rublev to win 4/5 paddy power

Over 39.5 games 4/5 paddy power

 

Well I do fancy Rublev to come through against his ageing opponent as he is very talented. But it will be close

Edited January 15, 2018 by owenclass

[Simeon Borisof]

Does someone else fancy Benneteau to beat Taro Daniels tomorrow?The Frenchman has plenty of experience and finished last season on a positive vibe,He is started the season with a defeat but it was more of a warm up i think rather than poor form.On the other hand we have Daniels who has little to no experience on such tournaments,the start was not inspiring and some would even say that he is hardly talanted.I think Julien should be good for at least one win at AO?

[CzechPunter]

Yep, he probably should, but losing to Piros was kinda ugly. Don't see him lasting five sets either honestly, the odds look pretty right to me, but I wouldn't want to put you off, I didn't see either guy in 2018. Plenty of upsets so far, the conditions really are quite specific.

[CzechPunter]

Sad day really, plenty of shocking flops, the conditions clearly aren't for everyone. Taking just a couple for tomorrow.

Feliciano Lopez to beat Sam Querrey at 2.21 with Marathonbet

Looking at the pair's previous meetings, Lopez usually prevails in faster conditions, while Querrey takes matches in slower ones. Well, these courts aren't slow and Lopez should be able to use his slices to a good effect against the American, who can have a hard time being agile and getting down to the lower balls. At 2.21, Lopez is definitely the play here.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (-2.5) to beat Christina McHale at 1.83 with Betfair

Sasnovich is the bigger hitter of the two and she was in a brilliant form a few weeks ago, while McHale is yet to impress in this season. The American also retired from her previous match - and, well, I don't trust her head in big matches either.

F.Fognini/H.Zeballos - Over 3.5 sets at 1.90 with Bet365

I expect some fooling around from these two guys. Both can play, Fognini especially so, but consistency isn't their forte and that could do wonders in the AO conditions. Fognini to win, but not without throwing a set away.

[LePapo]

First day of the open gone and 5 seeds are already out and lots of americans as well. My outright bet on anderson didn't last a day and it's a shame because that section of the draw is quite open now. Sock was poor today and pouille improved his record here to a flawless 0-4.

For tomorrow i've just considered donaldson but i think value now is almost gone. Then in the other matches I struggle to find some value, maybe verdasco that can produce another shock.

There are some early odds for wednesday matches and i like quite a few underdogs here. Simon looked well today, he's shown good form recently and has a nice record here while PCB really struggled today against an unkwown player. Then I fancy Istomin, again he's shown good form recently, good run in brisbane and it seems he likes conditions here (last year he beat djokovic) He'll face edmund who is having on a great form as well but he's played a 4 hour match and given how these two are playing I think 2.90 for istomin is great value. And finally Shapovalov against Tsonga, he beat him easily back in august, he outclassed tsitsipas today, has a great serve, good mobility while tsonga has just play his first match of the season so he might stll be a bit rusty. Then I think harrison should be too much for cuevas on hard court and i would have liked a bigger price on millman to continue his run here but at 1.65 i'll just ignore this match.

I'd like to read your thoughts about today matches and your early predictions for round 2.

goodluck

[four-leaf]

Marcos Baghdatis to beat Andrey Rublev at 3.25 with bet365

Marcos was just his usual self when he destroyed Yuki Bhambri. You know what you get from Baggy, a throughout solid performance. The old fox can easily teach this young gun a lesson. I'm one of those who doesn't get surprised that he could destroy Yuki Bhambri. Don't know what's up with Rublev but he needs more experience to prevent things to happen like dropping a 5-2 lead as he did against David Ferrer where he was double break up in fourth set. I'm all over Baggy here, he's to consistent for Andrey. The bookie have got it all wrong here.

Denis Shapovalov to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 2.62 with bet365

I agree with LePapo here. Denis should be to strong for Jo-Willy again.

Edited January 15, 2018 by four-leaf

[ivanhoe]

1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

well not really. u can say it was unfortunate day for betters. some sets ran unnecessarily into 3 sets when they should have finished in 2 sets. rublev was up 3-0 in the 4th set and blew it. thank god his opponent was not nadal or federer. ferrer was very poor in that match, venus was completely out of touch and so was stephens. she had the game won in 2nd set when she was 5-4 up and then she threw the game. you don't throw games in grand slams. It was not a day of upsets but day of misfortunes for sports bettors

Completely agree with you.I hit 1 of 3 last night.Bellis won the first set zie-break and the fell appart.Usually when a player who I bet on loses a tie break he/she loses the second set easily.Well that'a what one would call that beautiful world of betting.

Krunic was close but she did not win in the end, again a close call but close doesn't count.

The only match I guessed right was Puig-Stosur over.

[owenclass]

Mirjana Lucic Baroni vs Shelby Rogers

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I fancy this match to go to three sets as they are both evenly matched and it should be a close match with a lot of breaks of serve

Edited January 16, 2018 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Meh.

For Wednesday:

Elise Mertens to beat Daria Gavrilova at 1.95 with Unibet

Elise Mertens is 8-1 so far in this season, with that record including one win over Gavrilova (the sole loss came against Kerber). She's on a tremendous streak and she started her AO run with a very easy win, so she doesn't seem to be tired after that long week in Hobart. Gavrilova will have the home advantage on her side and that could work in her favour, but I'd have Mertens around 1.70 here honestly. She's just the better player in the better form.

Kaia Kanepi (-3.5) to beat Monica Puig at 1.83 with Bet365

Puig somehow managed to get past Stosur after the Australian choked, which was kinda predictable given her record in Aussie events, but Kanepi should be way too strong honestly. She's back with a vengeance after a long injury break, 6-1 in this season, losing only against Pliskova - and she was very competitive even in that match. Puig can have patches of brilliancy, but Kanepi is much more solid and accurate, so she should take this in the end. Controlled aggression has always been better than senseless one.

Belinda Bencic (-4.5) to beat Luksika Kumkhum at 1.80 with Bet365

Yep, I'm going to jump on the Belinda bandwagon after seeing her against Venus. Kumkhum has a strange habit of getting big wins out of nowhere in Australia, she even managed to beat Kvitova here a couple of years ago, but I think that overwhelming chances are that she won't have enough to challenge Bencic, who's learned to avoid silly mistakes during her injury break. If Bencic is on song, this could be over very quickly.

[Simeon Borisof]

Ok i must say that i find this year's tennis betting awufl.I have a bunch of friends who lost a fortune since the beginning of the season and looking how the things are going here in the forum,it doesn't look any better.80-90% of the bets are losing,especially in the women tennis so fingers crossed the trend changes on wednesday as i am with  four-leaf on both Baghdatis and Shapovalov to win their games.

Edited January 16, 2018 by Simeon Borisof

[CzechPunter]

Personally, I don't think that Baghdatis is worth it at the current price, Rublev was on fire against Ferrer and showed tremendous composure in not breaking down after losing a nice lead in the fourth set. Baghdatis is nowhere near the Spaniard in terms of movement, so I don't see how he's going to chase the balls coming his way. He's got more power, of course, so he'll be able to dictate in some points, but it feels to me that going against him is betting on Rublev to fall apart mentally more than anything else, Baghdatis certainly isn't the man he used to be anymore. I wish you good luck and I hope that Baggy wins obviously, just my two cents. Shapovalov I have no idea, I didn't see either in the first round.

Hoping for Kerber to deliver on the quarter bet, she certainly looked better than Sharapova to me today, but I didn't see Muguruza. Only those two players can beat her imo, unless Vekic plays out of her mind or something. Halep was crap and might be injured now, so be careful if you want to back her in the next match.

As for the season, @Simeon Borisof, it's just the 16th day of a season that runs until November, so it's hard to make any conclusions. I was really disappointed by how Lopez didn't care at all against Querrey, that's the reason for my "Meh" comment, especially since I wanted to back Lacko in some way instead and didn't. Otherwise I'm still hoping to do well in the tournament, let's see.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICKS FOR WTA AUSTRALIAN OPEN:

KERBER-VEKIC 2:0 SETS @ 1.5 pinnacle
expect an easy win for Kerber who is in great form in 2018: 10-0 record for her.
 

[Simeon Borisof]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Personally, I don't think that Baghdatis is worth it at the current price, Rublev was on fire against Ferrer and showed tremendous composure in not breaking down after losing a nice lead in the fourth set. Baghdatis is nowhere near the Spaniard in terms of movement, so I don't see how he's going to chase the balls coming his way. He's got more power, of course, so he'll be able to dictate in some points, but it feels to me that going against him is betting on Rublev to fall apart mentally more than anything else, Baghdatis certainly isn't the man he used to be anymore. I wish you good luck and I hope that Baggy wins obviously, just my two cents. Shapovalov I have no idea, I didn't see either in the first round.

Hoping for Kerber to deliver on the quarter bet, she certainly looked better than Sharapova to me today, but I didn't see Muguruza. Only those two players can beat her imo, unless Vekic plays out of her mind or something. Halep was crap and might be injured now, so be careful if you want to back her in the next match.

As for the season, @Simeon Borisof, it's just the 16th day of a season that runs until November, so it's hard to make any conclusions. I was really disappointed by how Lopez didn't care at all against Querrey, that's the reason for my "Meh" comment, especially since I wanted to back Lacko in some way instead and didn't. Otherwise I'm still hoping to do well in the tournament, let's see.

I wasn’t referring to your bets particularly.I just think that’s a common occurrence that this start of the season is crap.My friend tend to do well and add nice + to the budget but are on a massive downfall right now.There were a few nice shots here but generally speaking everyone in the tennis topic is heaving hard time at the moment

[LePapo]

Second round starts tonight, i'll bet on the players I mentioned a couple of days ago with a couple of extra bets that i found interesting. I fancy Shapovalov to beat Tsonga and I also like the bet on "to be a tiebreak? Yes" My bookie offers me 2.50 which I find an interesting price, both are more serve orientated players and this surface is a bit faster than normal hard courts. So I think there's a nice chance that the match features a tiebreak. On the other hand, I like "to be a tiebreak? No" on simon-PCB, both players are good returners, break serve lots of times, so i expect quite a few breaks in this match. I had considered Simon to win but the price is not attractive to me anymore. And finally I've decided to back Harrison to continue his run down under.

I would have liked to bet on NO TIEBREAK on Schwartzman-Ruud but my bookie doesn't offer that option. I'm having also a small bet on Seppi to reach SF. His section is really open now so why not trying a big longshot?

For wednesday I placed an early bet on Gojow.... to win a set against Zverev. He just didn't look solid today, Fabbiano failed to serve for the set twice!! 

4 units on Harrison to beat Cuevas at 1.63

3 units on "To be a tiebreak? No" on Simon-PCB at 1.95

2.5 units on Shapovalov to beat Tsonga at 2.52

2.5 units on "To be a tiebreak? Yes" on Shapo-Tsonga at 2.50

2 units on Istomin to beat Edmund at 2.87

0.5 units on Seppi to reach SF at 40

It feels like it could well be a clean day with full of winners or a solid 0-5 to start the second round.

Good luck to everyone