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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2018

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:cow

This will be crazy, Federer to sleepwalk to a title? Just 3.00 in general at the moment, but how can Djokovic be just 5.50 given his current state? Murray is 13.00 and not likely to play :loon. It's still slightly early, but I'm going to have two 1pt bets with Bet365 already. Namely, I'll be going for Anderson @ 101.00 and Bencic at @ 51.00.

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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Another nice story is that Bernard Tomic refused to play in the AO WC qualifiers, so the organizers didn't want to give him a regular WC - and he's now apparently declined to play in normal qualifiers as well :loon. What a man!

Bernard refuses to sink as low as playing qualifiers for a grand slam but he has to find himself in the situation he's in, simple as that or his career will soon be over.

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Alright, I'm going to throw one interest point on Gilles Simon over at Unibet, who have him at 601.00. I don't expect him to win, of course, and he could even lose in round one, but he's flowing freely right now and miracles do happen. He's also had some great matches in the AO previously - and he's on offer at around 151.00 at other bookies. Not going to have any other picks before the draw comes out, Simona Halep would be my second pick in the women's, but, as I have her at 4.50 to win a GS in this season, there's no point in doubling down. Edit: A quick reaction, lol, he's now down to 201.00. Still worth a point in my opinion, I'd be willing to throw a point in at everything above 151.00 honestly. He's definitely one to watch out for in the quarter betting as well depending on the draw. In Pune, he was just absolutely on fire, one highlight reel shot after another against both Cilic and Anderson. I didn't see his match against Bautista. I'd especially like to back him if he doesn't do well next week or if he even withdraws from Sydney, as I can't see him playing three weeks in a row with his style. The AO conditions can't be that bad for him, however, as he loves to feed off the pace others throw at him (he isn't that great when it comes to generating his own pace, which is one of the reasons for why he's never excelled on clay). And regarding other possible contenders that I saw - Raonic was just awful against De Minaur, he seems to be a bit fatter as well? Thiem was solid in Doha, he'll be in the mix if he recovers in time. Federer was excellent throughout the week. Zverev seems to be having some mental issues, missing sitters and what not. Berdych not likely to be a contender.

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On 10.1.2018. at 3:04 AM, four-leaf said:

Angelique Kerber to win Australian open at 15.00 with Betsson

Kerber is steamrolling right now and should do well in the first grand slam. She had an awful 2017 so she should be better this season if her form keeps rising like it has since the season started.

I'll definitely follow this one :hope

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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Draws out now at https://ausopen.com/draws?events=2446&player=

Highlights:

V. Williams - Bencic

Stosur - Puig

Cibulkova - Kanepi

Ferrer - Rublev

Tsitsipas - Shapovalov

Anderson - Edmund

Bautista - Verdasco

M. Zverev - Chung

Medvedev - Kokkinakis

Berdych - De Minaur

Looks like your pick Belinda Bencic will go out already in the first round. Venus has a 4-0 lead over Belinda and 8-0 in sets. Belinda has been outclassed all of the 4 times she's faced Venus.

Edit: I also don't expect Venus to go out in first round. I would be very surprised if she does.

Edited by four-leaf

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@four-leaf I'm not going to cry if I lose the one point there, but I'm not as pessimistic as you are. Venus was bad against Kerber and some bookies even have Bencic as the favourite in that one. I think it's a 50/50 match, more or less. The H2H might look bad, but Bencic became good in 2016 and the matches are from 2012, 2014, and 2015 (twice). Not enthusiastic about the draw for Bencic, but it could've been worse.

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The draw is rather tricky, not sure that I'm going to have any additional pre-tournament bets honestly. Maybe a couple once I see things with fresh eyes on Saturday/Sunday. Even many of the matches look like traps, especially those that feature players that are yet to play in 2018.

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Thiem says the places outside are extremely fast. it says it's like two different tournaments

 

In den ersten Tagen in Melbourne ließ es der French-Open-Halbfinalist zunächst etwas langsamer angehen. Am Samstag trainierte er zweimal und "trotzte dem Regen", wie er zufrieden feststellte. Bei seiner ersten Einheit hatte Thiem ein Zeitfenster ohne Niederschlag erwischt, am Nachmittag durfte er dann in der überdachten Hisense Arena ran. Der Belag auf dem drittgrößten Court der Anlage am Yarra River unterscheidet sich extrem von dem auf den Außenplätzen. "Die sind höllisch schnell. Es werden hier wahrscheinlich zwei verschiedene Turniere gespielt", sagte der Schützling von Erfolgscoach Günter Bresnik über die unterschiedlichen Bedingungen.

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Angelique Kerber to win the 2nd Quarter at 4.00 with Bet365

I was waiting with this for today's finals, but Kerber didn't have too many problems against Barty, so I'll back her in the quarter betting now that everything is clearer. Tiredness could be an issue, but she's the most in-form player on the tour right now and many of her opponents have some issues of their own as well, so 4.00 looks like value to me.

Monday (Australian time)

I usually back a lot of underdogs, but I don't see all that many this time around, so let's see if I'm going crazy or if the favourites really are going to have a field day.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-4.5) to beat Kateryna Kozlova at 1.74 with Marathonbet

Pavlyuchenkova didn't get many wins in the Hopman Cup, but Kozlova is obviously a far cry from the likes of Bencic and even Osaka. What's more, Kozlova doesn't have a great form either - in fact, she's yet to play in 2018.

Gilles Simon (-5.5) to beat Marius Copil at 1.82 with Marathonbet

Copil can be competitive from time to time, but, if Simon plays reasonably well, he should be able to outplay him easily. The loss against Donaldson doesn't really count imo - if anything, it's allowed Simon to recover and rest before the start of the Grand Slam.

Coco Vandeweghe (-3.5) to beat Timea Babos at 1.81 with Marathonbet

The faster courts should help Vandeweghe once again and she's defending a lot of points here, so she should be focused and ready to go. The bet is also a lot about going against Babos, however, as she's started the season fairly awfully, with 0-2 losses against Tsurenko and Begu. Vaneweghe has the power to just out-muscle her.

Pablo Carreno-Busta (-5.5) to beat Jason Kubler at 1.90 with Bet365

It would be a really nice story for Kubler to succeed here, but I'm afraid that PCB will be just way too consistent for him from the back of the court. Kubler is definitely better and more talented than your typical Challenger-level player, but he's completely unproven on the main level and PCB is a legitimately strong opponent that can beat everyone expect the very very best. The Kooyong exhos should give him some confidence as well.

Leonardo Mayer (-1.5 sets) to beat Nicolas Jarry at 1.76 with Unibet

Jarry has a reasonable serve, but he doesn't have what it takes to succeed on the main level right now imo. Mayer is a very experienced campaigner on the main tour, has beaten decent players in Melbourne before, and he's also been fairly consistent so far in 2018. I expect him to have way too much for Jarry given the stakes.

Ying-Ying Duan (-4.5) to beat Mariana Duque-Marino at 1.83 with Bet365

Duan remains to be a bit of an enigma, but there's no doubt that she's tremendously talented. Last year, she had a good run in Australia and 2018 could kick-start her again. Duque-Marino is actually the ideal opponent, thoroughly average and fresh from a poor loss against Stojanovic. The most interesting bit is that she actually has a 0-8 record in the AO, including quallies - and that probably is indicating something.

Nikoloz Basilashvili (-1.5 sets) to beat Gerald Melzer at 1.94 with Unibet

Melzer is yet to play in 2018, he's got an awful record in the Australian Open, and the faster conditions should be against his game as well, so I have a big fancy on Basilashvili here. He's not the most consistent of players, but he tends to hit the ball well in quicker conditions and he should be able to use the faster courts to hit enough winners against the almost-clay-court-specialist Melzer.

Yuichi Sugita (+5) to beat Jack Sock at 1.86 with Marathonbet

The only underdog bet of the bunch, but I don't like Sock at the moment, it seems to me that he's suffering from some hangover from the last season. If it gets hot, he could also have some fitness problems, as he has had heat problems previously. Sugita can be tricky and he's taken all three sets he's played before Sock to this day, so he could prove to be a very lively underdog.

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first slam of the year starts in a couple of days and the draw is already out. Nadal is the top seed and his quarter looks quite easy IMO. It's true he hasn't played a competitive match since london, but he has some easy opponents for the first rounds so i think that'll help to get some rythm before the latter stages. he also has a good record here, having lost mainly against top 10 opposition and the only one in his quarter will be cilic. He was easily  beaten by nadal last year in shanghai which is one of the fastest tournaments on tour and he has a 1-4 h2h against rafa on hard court. Odds on him to reach SF are around 4.5 and to me that represents zero value. Maybe a big longshot can be Harrison, he had a good run in brisbane and he was playing quite well and at odds of 50 it looks a bit generous to me, the only problem is he might face cilic in R3 and the h2h is 4-1 to cilic. Simon can be another dark horse, he showed some form in Pune and he has a decent record here. 8 of his last 9 losses here have been against top 10 opposition, he has a good h2h against cilic and he's at 15 to reach SF. So if one wants to oppose nadal i think the best options would be simon and harrison with the idea to hedge the bets if they reach a decisive match against rafa. Cilic would be an interesting option but not at those odds, maybe at 8 i might be tempted.

Then the second quarter looks a bit more open than the first one. Dimitrov Kyrgios Anderson and Sock are the main seeds. My bookie makes kyrgios favourite to reach SF, he's playing abolutely good tennis now but tbh i couldn't have a bet on him given his fitness issues and his mentality. In brisbane i had a bet on him to win the tournament but every match was a torture. He gave away the first set just to win it easily in 3. But in a slam you just cant give away sets. Also in brisbane he had some issues on his knee... Then Dimitrov who is looking to improve his last year result here when he reached semis and lost in 5 against rafa. But odds on him look short to me given he'd probably face kyrgios/tsonga and rublev who beat him in the us open before facing  anderson or sock. Tsonga had a good 2017 he won 4 tournaments but i don't know whats the issue with him that he manages a way to choke a match or to underperform in a big match like he did against stan last year here. He might face shapovalov who beat him last year in usa, then he might face kyrgios, then dimitrov and then anderson/sock. My bookie pays just 15 and to me that's surely no value. In the lower part of the quarter we have sock and anderson. I don't consider pouille given that he's never won a match here, he's mainly a hard court indoor player and his hold and break stats are nothing special. Sock and Anderson are at 10 to reach semis which looks about right to me, especially for anderson. It's true that he faces a tricky first round opponent like edmund but the british has a poor record against top 20 players (6-22) Sock didn't look well in auckland and he said he was a bit rusty. He faces sugita in 1R and then probably big ivo. Not the players you would like to face to start getting some rythm.

The Q3 looks a bit tricky, we have lots of concerns regarding djokovic fitness, although he's said he's ok. If he is near his best physical shape, then odds on him to reach SF are massive value. Djokovic in australia is sth similar to what rafa is in france or roger in london. Zverev looks like a threat but he's not proven in best of 5 conditions. Stan hasn't played a match for a while and he decided yesterday that he'll play the aus open so i don't expect much from him. Thiem has a nice draw to reach at least the fourth round but i think 6.50 to win his quarter is quite short. And finally RBA who has achieved some great results here he has a nice 3-0 h2h against thiem. The problem is he faces verdasco in 1R and thats a tricky one. Odds on him offer some value to me, he's currently at 12 to reach semis so if he manages to get past verdasco and odds don't drop significantly he might be a good option to oppose djokovic.

Finally the Q4, unless some miracle from raonic it seems that RF will reach at least the quarterfinals, so that section of the draw is dead to me. In the higher section of the draw we find goffin delpo berdych as the main seeds and some good young players like tiafoe khachanov and deminaur. Thing is that almost with the exception of goffin, these players are pack in one half of the section, so it'll be a bit tough for delpo or berdych to reach the fourth round, meanwhile goffin has a more than accessible way to the fourth round. So between him at 7 or delpo at 6, i fancy goffin to play agaisnt federer for a spot  in the last four. He beat him last year so i think all psychological issues should have disappeared. He's shown a great level of tennis recently and he has a nice opportunity to reach his first SF in a grand slam.

I'll just wait the qualifiers to be placed as tomic might change things a little bit

it's been a while i havent written here, I would like to read some of your thoughts about the draw and who you consider can go deep down under

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@LePapo Cheers for the comments, appreciated! I think that you're spot on with the vast majority of things. Roger Federer is everyone's favourite and mine too, all the other big names are in trouble and you don't go winning GSs without a bit of practice beforehand imo. Djokovic crushed Thiem, but Thiem was still suffering from both a flu and a jet lag according to his own words, so there's that. Other than that, I still stand by virtually everything I've said here above, not much has changed with the exhos imo. The Tiebreak Tens were interesting, not because Berdych won, but because Hewitt nearly beat Nadal, which is crazy if you consider that one guy is the world's number one and the other a retired veteran. A very short test, of course, and Nadal managed to hit one phenomenal shot during it, but still...hard to fancy Nadal to win it.

Tomic can't change anything imo, he should've been out today and I wouldn't be shocked to see him lose his final qualifying match honestly.

Thiem doesn't seem to be completely healthy still, but I'd love to see him do well. Wawrinka not likely to be a factor, Raonic likewise. Simon and Anderson are still my big underdogs and I still trust them somewhat.

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Gilles Simon to beat (-2.5 sets) Marius Copil at 2.10 with bet365

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat (-2.5 sets) Gerald Melzer at 3.25 with bet365

I'll have Nikoloz Basilashvili to win in 3 and Gilles Simon to win in 3 also. I successfully picked Lukas Lacko to beat Marius Copil in Bratislava challenger i november and Marius lost it in 2. Gilles beat Kevin Anderson in 2 in Pune and one more set is not mutch for Gilles to accomplish v a similar player in Marius so I'll easily pick 3-0 in sets for Niko and Gilles.

Gerald will have to many problems to deal with for him to take a set and Marius could serve himself to a tie-break like Kevin did in Pune but Gilles is just to confident in his game right now. Could very well be an easy money acca.

Total odds: 6.82 bet365

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