March 6 - March 12

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Up a break in both sets, didn't win either .

 

[CzechPunter]

[ElPrincipito007]

I think Hibino (@2,59, Pinnacle) is a little bit overpriced. She won against Linette in Kuala Lumpur where she wasn't such an underdog. Ranking and results are almost the same.

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

So Serena has apparently withdrawn from both Indian Wells and Miami, which hands the number one spot back to Kerber. I'm not sure the German appreciates that though given how the pressure has been affecting her .

[LePapo]

Bottom quarter of Indian Wells is absolutely unreal, Federer Nadal Zverev Kyrgios Delpo and Nole will fight for ONE spot in the last 4. In these tournaments I like betting on who's winning his quarter/ to reach the semifinal

In the first quarter I like Tsonga and Goffin. Both have been playing superb this season, Tsonga unbeaten in his last 9 matches with 5 wins against top 20 opposition and Goffin as well going deep in the tournaments he's played. And Murray doesn't have the greatest numbers in Indian Wells. My choice will depend on the price they're given...

I fancy Nishikori in the third quarter, his draw looks relatively. Dimitrov can be his opponent in the QF but I don't rate him high in these slow conditions, I will definitely keep an eye on Sock and Medvedev.

Then in the second quarter, I like Thiem and Isner. These slow conditions should suit Thiem. And Isner, even if he's a big server, he's got a strong record in IW (20-9) with 8 of those 9 losses coming against top 10 opposition and the other against Hewitt. Stan hasn't  a good record here and Monfils is not reliable. I will keep an eye on the Dog, former semifinalist here, he's in form and his draw is handy.

Then last quarter is crazy.

I'm just waiting for the odds to come out, I'd like to read your thoughts about the draw and some possible bets or predicted matches.

 

 

 

[CzechPunter]

I certainly wouldn't dismiss Murray, he was the only Big Four member to deliver last week and has only one bad loss to his name in 2017. Also more motivated than, say, Djokovic imo. Should win his quarter if he's fit and mentally at it, but he's a short price at Paddy (1.53).

Nishikori looks like a weak favourite to me, especially since he doesn't like hot conditions. Pouille might actually be the value bet, but I'd like a bit more than 10.00 to take it.

Thiem isn't playing all that well in this season, but the rest of the quarter hasn't been better, Wawrinka poor, Berdych even worse, Monfils thoroughly average. Dolgopolov or Isner could be good shouts as underdogs somewhere, fully agreed.

And the last quarter? Well, if there was an option to oppose Djokovic in quarter betting, I would, he just doesn't seem to have the drive anymore. Understandable, but it will lead to sad times for his fans. Kyrgios will be a good underdog shout at some point probably, the only in-form player in the quarter really. Nadal not without a chance either.

Matches I don't know yet, will look at them later today or early tomorrow.

[CzechPunter]

Actually, let's go.

[LePapo]

Thanks Czech, had totally forgotten Nishikori tends to struggle in these hot conditions maybe thats why his record here is not the greatest. My bookie offers just 2.40 on him to win so no value to me even if he's got an easy draw IMO. I'll wait the update with the qualifiers but if nothing changes I'll be on Sock(17), Tsonga(5), Isner(30) and maybe Thiem with the intention to lay both americans if they go deep.

Regarding first round matches, my only play will be Schwartzman to beat Sousa. This is on hard yes, but really slow and hot conditions. Stats on hard in the last 52 weeks favour Schwartzman slightly as he holds his serve 75.6% and breaks 28.7% which makes a total of 104.3 while Sousa holds 74.6% and breaks 24.9% making a total of 99.5. Purely based on this, its the argentinian who should have an edge in this match. Sousa's main hard court results have come in indoors tournaments. He's reached the final in 5 hard court tournaments and 4 of them were indoors where conditions are way quicker than those in Indian Wells. Sousa record in Indian Wells stands at 1-4, with defeats against Delbonis, Gulbis, Dodig and Munoz de la Nava. Also I found interesting that he's a career record of 6-16 against players under 5'10.... IMO Schwartzman should start this match as favourite so given he's an underdog I'll be backing him to beat Sousa

3 units on Sch.. to beat Sousa at 2.00

[four-leaf]

Mona Barthel to beat (-1.5 games) Katerina Siniakova at 2.00 with Unibet

Mona seems to be up and running again, made her way through the qualies easily. She's had a good season so far while Katerina haven't done mutch since winning her first title in China before AO.

Shuai Peng to beat (-1.5 games) Lesia Tsurenko at 2.02 with Unibet

Shuai beat Lesia by 6-1 6-1 in Dubai two weeks ago. I'm not surprised if there will be a similar result in favour of Shuai.

Sara Sorribes Tormo to beat (+6.5 games) Ekaterina Makarova at 1.75 with Unibet

Slow conditions, suits SST better than Ekaterina.

Renzo Olivo to beat Jiri Vesely at 3.02 with Pinnacle

Having read Czechs thoughts about this match I decided to go for Renzo.

Ryan Harrison to beat Damir Dzumhur at 1.42 with Pinnacle

Ryan beat Damir in Memphis in straight sets in february. Now the conditions suits Damir better but I still think Ryan will be to hot to handle for Damir.

Diego Schwartzman to beat Joao Sousa at 2.00 with Betrally

I decided to tag along with LePapo on this one.

Taylor Townsend to beat (-1.5 sets) Magda Linette at 3.50 with Pinnacle

Magda should be quite tired after Kuala Lumpur and qualies here. I just take my chances with a low stake that Magda is tired and can't play well enough to win a set. Taylor can be a difficult opponent and I also rate her as the better player of these two but we'll see about this one. Just a low stake since I'm not entirely sure about this.

Federico Delbonis to beat Andrey Kuznetsov at 2.18 with Unibet

The conditions in Indian wells suits Federico as he beat Andy Murray here last year and he's beaten Andrey twice before. Once in Basel on indoor hardcourt in straight sets and once on clay in Gstaad also in straight sets. He lost a couple of years before in a clay challenger event to Andrey in straight sets but that is irrelevant now. Andreys form is awful so far this season and Federico can play well enough on this slow hardcourt to have a better chance to win this one than what the bookies think.

Edited March 9, 2017 by four-leaf

[liquidglass]

BASILASHVILI VS KING

It really looks a very tough day ahead at Indian Wells with the daunting prospect of trying to separate so many matchups that on the face of it looks relatively easy. I have tried to stir clear of trouble and taken a couple of picks that I truly fancy. There will be no in depth explanation for these picks, as I would not expect you to understand anyway. There will just be enough verbal preamble to cover the requirement. Having said that,

It is important that at this point I point to some matches that have a huge chance of upsets.  Harrison vs Zhumhur, Nishioka vs Ymer, and Golubic vs Davis, and Basilashvil vs King are a few games to watch carefully. Going from last to first, it would seem Darian King has finally arrived or is arriving.....He has the momentum as opposed to a guy who should really be getting ready to cool off after a brief prosperous period. I really expect King to win somehow in the end. With caution in mind, the pick is DARIAN KING VS BASILASHVILI, King to win a set. 7/4. Good Luck!!

[liquidglass]

SCHWARTZMAN VS SOUSA

This matchup is as tough to separate as is a dog from its bone. No h2h to follow, so it's just intuition, logic and experience. When both are firing on all cylinders, Sousa's game looks more robust with very good aggression management. Sousa in my opinion is a better hard court player than Schwartzman. He should have enough in the tank to front run and stay ahead to the line. Good luck

[Guest]

I am back after long pause. Lately I bet more to enjoy than to earn so I play doubles, trebles... I will be quck because I am not at home and in a hurry... Here is one treble I played today:

Darian King to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili @3,25 bet365

Mona Barthel to beat Katerina Siniakova @1,83 bet365

Robin Haase to beat Paolo Lorenzi @1,4 bet365

+7,5% on trebles om bet365

King played two good matches in qualies and Basilasvhili is just overrated these days, also home court advantage in big tournaments like IW definitely is is much appreciated. I also liked description of another member, thanks!

Barthel found the right form this year, the form that got her into TOP30 few years ago, finally overcomed her health issues and looked solid in qualies. Siniakova still lacks experience in big tournaments and her form is below average...

Haase played semis in Dubai, even though he did not impress me with his game against Dzumhur in QFs... But I guess it was just a bad day and he still grabbed a win. What to say about Lorenzi, I met him on local challenger a few years ago and he is a great guy, but his game is just not there on hard court.

I hope we can qll earn something tonight, best of luck to everyone!

 

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Alright, Tomic, my bad...

 

[liquidglass]

Dear Admin,

I was just wondering with a bit of quizzical interest how the grading system works here. Is a "Newbie Punter" a permanent title? While I do not demand a reply from you, I think it is something you might want to ponder over. Thanks!

[CzechPunter]

I think it was originally tied to the number of posts one had, but maybe it stopped working correctly with one of the forum updates. Perhaps @Sir Puntalot could tell you more.

[Sir Puntalot]

4 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Dear Admin,

I was just wondering with a bit of quizzical interest how the grading system works here. Is a "Newbie Punter" a permanent title? While I do not demand a reply from you, I think it is something you might want to ponder over. Thanks!

A good question @liquidglass - it's from the old forum, this software is far superior. Let me have a look into it and I'll get back to you.  Please send me a PM if I take too long, got around 6 million things on the list.  

[Sir Puntalot]

5 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Dear Admin,

I was just wondering with a bit of quizzical interest how the grading system works here. Is a "Newbie Punter" a permanent title? While I do not demand a reply from you, I think it is something you might want to ponder over. Thanks!

Ok, so basically this software works on the amount of "Pips" the small dots you have under your username. You can change the "Title", ie Newbie Punter to anything you like in your settings.  

It's the reputation number I like better anyway, shows how active you are and how many people appreciate your posts etc...  

@CzechPunteris sooooo much more reputable than me.  

[CzechPunter]

Can't buy any luck at the moment, Olivo just fell apart in the decider. Slowly drifting back towards a minus for the season, but I guess I can't complain too much given that I've managed to dig out of the pre-AO hole.

[CzechPunter]

Not sure why Flipkens didn't retire after receiving that long medical timeout .

Edit: I take that back actually, she wasn't that hurt apparently.

[Guest]

Annyone watching Laaksonen - Coric match? I got odds 11, 9 and 8 twice... I just could not resist the odds in the second set but now it is looking to good to be true...

Laaksonen serving - Coric 3:2 40:0 odds 1,30 vs 3,40

I cqn cash out only one 8 odd because that one is match winner and others are correct score 2:1 and it is not cash-outable...

What do you think?

[four-leaf]

Alexander Dolgopolov to beat Philip Kohlschreiber at 2.00 with bet365

So nice price on the dog. Got to take it. He's lost twice to Philip on grass in Germany and won once on the indoor hardcourts of Paris. Now it's hardcourt again, and a hardcourt that suits Alexander way better then Philip and the form of Alexander is looking terrific. No brainer for me, got to take this bet. High stake!

[CzechPunter]

[four-leaf]

Marcel Granollers to beat Malek Jaziri at 2.10 with Bet365

It's 2-0 for Marcel in the head-to-head and it's been a straight set triumph for Marcel last time they met in Memphis 2016. I think Marcel likes this matchup and the Indian wells surface enough to be far more comfortable than Malek and take this. Two things are enough things speaking in favour of Marcel here and I don't understand why he's not the favourite.

Edit: The form of both players are looking different but I dare to say that it won't matter. Marcels history in Indian wells is looking bad to but he's only had difficult draws every time he's played IW. Been in third round only once 2012, having a bye first then beating Tommy Haas in 3 and losing to Rafa in 2. But I'm not worried since this is the first time since beating Tommy Haas for Marcel to have a decent chance of going to the third round again. He's a better player than Malek.

Edited March 12, 2017 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

To bad Alexandr Dolgopolov had to retire because he was owning Kohlschreiber and he would have won if not forced to retire.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR TODAY:
INDIAN WELLS: KONTA over GARCIA @ 1.26 pinnacle
After a very good win and good form yesterday over Watson, I expect it to be another win for one of the best players of 2017 so far.

[CzechPunter]

[four-leaf]

Well Marcel Granollers wasn't very good. He got mostly outplayed by Malek Jaziri and didn't have any chance at all. Bad bet but that's how it is when you take a chance.

Federico Delbonis to beat Juan Martin del Potro at 4.50 with bet365

Odds have dropped down from 5.50 to 4.50 on Delbonis so I'm kind of late for this one. He beat Murray here last season and JMDP hasn't played as mutch as he should need to this season to get into the real winning mood in these big tournaments. I think we'll see another upset from Delbonis here to deny JMDP a meeting with Nole.