February 27 - March 5

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

[liquidglass]

Gastao Elias vs Orlando Luz

Monday is always a good day to aim at a number of speculative bets with reason, as it is always difficult most times to tell who is in form and who is not. The matter even gets more complex when you have to go through the extra consideration of who has really come to compete and who has not. There are also "other" factors to consider as in weather, surface, home advantage, age etc. 

Gastao has been in sticky form for a while now, but it looks obvious that he has at least played well in defeat on the last two occasions to be worthy of favoritism against an unknown. Well....an unknown if you are one that easily gets swallowed up by intimidation. I really do not think that it will require any sort of tennis wisdom to try and work this match out as certain warning signs have already started flashing. 

Orlando Luz is a freshman bubbling with a whole lot of youth on his side. Although he has been plying his trade on the Futures tour many levels below, He comes here with a winning mentality as can be seen from his impressive record and also a lot of enthusiasm and expectation. Expectation from realizing that a chance has arrived. He would only have been encouraged by his performance against Andreozzi last week, who in fact is a more credible opponent that Elias formwise. This is Luz second game of the year?? Expect considerable improvement from Luz at home. He should win a set and possibly match. Luz to win a set 6/5 Paddy Power. Good Luck!!! 

 

Edited February 27, 2017 by liquidglass

[LePapo]

This week we have 3 tournaments, 2 250 and 1 500. Almost all the top players are taking part in these tournaments. Dubai with RF Murray Stan RBA Monfils and Acapulco with Nadal Nole Thiem Goffin and many more so yeah this week we'll have good tennis. Even if Dubai and Acapulco are on hard court, conditions here tend to be on the slow side which normally should give an edge to good returners especially in Acapulco which is one of the slowest hard court tournaments on tour.

I fancy two players in this first round in Acapulco. The first one being Lorenzi, he will face Yen Hsun Lu. Conditions as I said are on the slow side so this should favour the Italian who has improved considerably on hard court during the last year. Lu is a player more adapted to the fast asian courts so I think he might feel unconfortable in Mexico. Lu is not having a good year so far IMO, he's 3-5 so far, but two of the three matches that he won were due to a big choke from his opponent. Khachanov lost the match himself after being a set and a break up against Lu and then Fratangelo lost it incredibly after being a set and DOUBLE break up. Odds on Lorenzi are now around the 2.5 mark which I consider value. I would make him a slight favourite for this match.

Then the other one I fancy is the Dog, he is facing Cilic in the first round but form of these players is going in different directions. Dolgopolov has had a good run in the South American clay court tournaments, on the other hand Cilic has had a terrible year and he's had massive losses (Brown Kovalik) I might say he hasn't recovered yet from his massive choke in the davis Cup final. Dolgopolov reach the semifinals here last year and he outplayed Tomic during the first two sets. He's playing now on hard after playing two weeks on clay but as I sais conditions here are pretty slow so he might not need too much time to adapt to these conditions. Only concern is that he retired from his last match but I think it was more a precaution. Odds on him are around 3 and I'll have a small bet on him.

Then in Sao Paulo where conditions are a bit quick (altitude) even if its a clay court tournament, I fancy Monteiro against Berlocq. Last year the brazilian lost against eventual champion Cuevas in the QF. He also had a good run in Gstaad last year where conditions are a bit fast due to the altitude. He's around 2.25 so I'll take him to beat Berlocq. He's got a handy draw so I'm also on him to win it all at 30 EW.

2.5 units on Lorenzi to beat Lu at 2.45

2.5 units on Monteiro to beat Berlocq at 2.25

1.5 units on Dog to beat Cilic at 3.1

good luck to everyon this week

Edited February 27, 2017 by LePapo

[CzechPunter]

Not a good start to the week, Stebe somehow crashed in the decider, but it was Arnaboldi who really failed me, shocking scoreline that one. Apologies to everyone who followed that pick, I completely misread it.

[CzechPunter]

This one for tonight.

 

[CzechPunter]

Tomljanovic beating Bouchard after not playing for a year .

 

[CzechPunter]

Eh...Federer? And there we are, trying to predict things .

[CzechPunter]

[bobix]

Back Philipp Kohlschreiber (+5.5 games) to beat Andy Murray at 1.82 with Unibet (even better odds at some smaller bookies)

Murray always had tough matches against the German, I think there is a good chance this handicap will be covered tomorrow.

[four-leaf]

Jurgen Melzer to beat Jerzy Janowicz at 2.62 with Paddypower

I think Jurgen wins this because of his superior form after winning Budapest challenger although Jerzys form is pretty ok too after winning Bergamo challenger. Jerzy will get in trouble once the rallies starts. Only home advantage and slightly better ranking right now makes Jerzy the favourite in this one but Jurgen is on the rise again and very dangerous on indoor hardcourts.

Edited March 2, 2017 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Czech what do you think about Jurgen Melzer yourself? He's got a pretty good return and that aids him in defeating many big servers. He beat Milos Raonic on the indoor courts of the Memphis final 2012 by 2-0. He's got a 1-1 head to head against Jerzy beating him on clay by 2-0 in Barcelona 2014 and losing in Wimbledon by 3-2, 6-4 in the decider. A surface far more suitable to Jerzy.

Edited March 2, 2017 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Czech what do you think about Jurgen Melzer yourself? He's got a pretty good return and that aids him in defeating many big servers. He beat Milos Raonic on the indoor courts of the Memphis final 2012 by 2-0. He's got a 1-1 head to head against Jerzy beating him on clay by 2-0 in Barcelona 2014 and losing in Wimbledon by 3-2, 6-4 in the decider. A surface far more suitable to Jerzy.

He's got the skills, no doubts about that, but I'm wondering about his focus and dedication nowadays. He's been on the main tour for so long that playing in Challengers can't feel that great for him. He needs to play in them, of course, and his results indicate that he cares to some degree, but he's never a big favourite to me. Backing him against Janowicz looks reasonable, as that's the sort of adversity he likes. Backing him at short odds anywhere looks like a suicide to me nowadays, however.

[CzechPunter]

[liquidglass]

Wang vs Han

Wang is in superlative form and looks a worthy favorite for this contest. However I really do not think this fact is as important as the fact that both girls know each other's game so well. The h2h stands at 5-4 Han with Han winning the last encounter in 2015. A rivalry such as this one invalidates whatever is current as everything now boils down to a local derby for the fittest to survive. Han has beaten the more quality opponents en route to this stage and looks value at the handicap of 4.5. This one should hopefully be a long match with Han keeping it very close and possibly winning again! Good luck

Edited March 3, 2017 by liquidglass

[bobix]

For today... I think Schwartzman is going to beat Cuevas in Sao Paulo, while Querrey should be well able to cover a 3.5 game handicap against Kyrgios in Acapulco. Odds for the first tip is around 1.75, for the latter around 1.90. Good luck!

[bobix]

11 hours ago, bobix said:

For today... I think Schwartzman is going to beat Cuevas in Sao Paulo, while Querrey should be well able to cover a 3.5 game handicap against Kyrgios in Acapulco. Odds for the first tip is around 1.75, for the latter around 1.90. Good luck!

Ridiculous burnout from Schwartzman, having 4-1 in the 2nd, 3-0 in decisive set 

[Nes*]

duel of vet's melzer to win?

[CzechPunter]

Does anyone have any idea why the odds for Hibino have gone so crazy? Am I missing something?

[Torque]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Does anyone have any idea why the odds for Hibino have gone so crazy? Am I missing something?

I suppose it's a combination of different things. Barty made it through to the final easily, whilst Hibino took three sets to get there; Prior to this tournament Hibino had only won one match all year, whereas Barty was 5-4 with some decent wins; Barty has been the far more impressive player of the two at this tournament, with Hibino fortunate in some ways to make the final and the beneficiary of Svitolina's withdrawal; Barty beat Hibino the last time they met, albeit quite a few years ago; Despite current rankings, Barty is arguably the more talented player. With all that though, I think the Australian is too short and I would be considering opposing her in some way if it weren't for the fact I'm already on her to win the tournament.

[Torque]

Just now, Torque said:

I suppose it's a combination of different things. Barty made it through to the final easily, whilst Hibino took three sets to get there; Prior to this tournament Hibino had only won one match all year, whereas Barty was 5-4 with some decent wins; Barty has been the far more impressive player of the two at this tournament, with Hibino fortunate in some ways to make the final and the beneficiary of Svitolina's withdrawal; Barty beat Hibino the last time they met, albeit quite a few years ago; Despite current rankings, Barty is arguably the more talented player. With all that though, I think the Australian is too short and I would be considering opposing her in some way if it weren't for the fact I'm already on her to win the tournament.

Of course you'll know all of the above I imagine Czech, so I guess my answer to your question would be I'm not sure you are missing anything and the price on Barty is probably the result of the hype surrounding her at the moment which obviously feeds into the lines.

[CzechPunter]

Back Nao Hibino (+1.5 sets) to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.30 with Unibet

Alright, let's go for the set handicap at very nice odds. Barty's a big talent and everything, but let's face it, she hasn't beaten anyone good so far in this tournament. Falconi was the toughest opposition and she dropped a set against her, so there's no doubt that she can drop one against Hibino, who's beaten two in-form players in Kerkhove and Linette, as well. What's more, this will be Barty's first singles final I believe, while Hibino already has a singles title under her belt, so the pressure will be squarely on the Australian - and better players than her choked in similar situations. At 2.30, the set handicap must have at least some value imo.

[Torque]

I can't like your post Czech because if Hibino wins one set she can definitely win a second which would be bad news for me! I can say good luck though and I'll cross my fingers for Barty to win 2-1! 

[CzechPunter]

[four-leaf]

Jurgen Melzer - Michal Przysiezny 
Bet: Jurgen Melzer 2-0 2.20 Pinnaclesports

This is all about home advantage for Michal and he'll go hard into this trying to win but Melzer will go into this without the feeling of any pressure. Michal lives in Wroclaw and winning this would be massive for him just as it would have been for Marton Fucsovics to win the Budapest challenger who lost to Jurgen three weeks ago in the final in straight sets. Jurgen have time and time in his career shown he can deal with big servers like Michal. Now Jurgen is the better player of these two also and he's had another good tournament behind him and only in this tournament he's taken out two big servers already in Jerzy Janowicz and Kenny De Schepper. He hasn't lost a set all tournament and he's got a good rythm in his game right now, he's doing well so I may just as well back him to win this in straight sets.