US Open 2016

[neilovan]

6 hours ago, Torque said:

I wouldn't be certain about Simon. His serve has always been fragile. I've always thought he drops it far too often for a top player. That said, he should be beating the likes of Lorenzi on a hard court given that Lorenzi spends most of his time on clay at Challenger level. Good luck with your bets. I've enjoyed reading your thoughts about different matches and players. Nice to get a fresh voice in this forum.

Thanks. And Good luck to you as well. I'm much more of a soccer-betting man, with much better results at soccer

 

[neilovan]

Looking at the weekend's games, one name that keeps popping up is Lucas Poullie. He just hangs in there and finds a way to win. It's 2 five setters in a row, but he obviously recovers quickly, and is fit.

I though he was outta gas before the Agut game, but he did the business, again (I did tip him to go deep). I watched this guy beat Del Potro at WImbledon, and was amazed. In the final set he played some absolutely unreal tennis, and Del Potro was trying (maybe just out on his feet though). Poullie  can really hit the ball, and is very talented. I'm just not convinced by Nadal. OK he has won three matches without dropping a set, but he should win those 3 easily. Is he 100% recovered and fit ? In his last 10 he has lost twice (Coric and Nishikori). Coric smacked him 1 and 3.

This is a really tough test for him, and I am surprised to see Poullie at 8.5 to win this game. Happy to take Poullie here.

Also watched the Tsonga v Anderson game, and I was not impressed with Tsonga. Anderson played horrid tennis, and had some back niggle, while Tsonga served well, but was very poor after missing his 1st serve. I just cannot see him getting past Jack Sock. Sock will have the crowd behind him, and mentally that will mess with Tsonga (normally has the crowd on his side). It will be a kind of Davis Cup (partisan) atmosphere, emotions running high. Cilic could'nt handle it and I think Tsonga fails as well.   Sock to win it here.  

I like this double at about 22-1

Edited September 3, 2016 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Good luck with that, but I think it's unfair to mention the Coric game as any kind of a reference point, it was clear that he was just out of fuel after the Olympics. No such issues here as far as I can see, looks as fit as he should be. And please, don't take this as a criticism of yourself or your style of betting - just sharing thoughts.

[Simeon Borisof]

I think that there  will be a surprise tomorrow given the odds of course as i think at least one of the underdogs will win his match.Edmund is really on fire right now while Djokovic hasn't been tested yet winning his last two matches with his opponents retiring.Everything about Poullie was pointed out above.Sock was totally written off here but he is managing to gain positive results and the crowd totally supports him while Tsonga's mentallity really reminds me of Paire's as both of them seem unable to stop self-destructing once they start making mistakes .Baghdatis really wasn't at his best yesterday but he didn't look troubled not to win at any point of the game so i think being priced @ 5 against Monfils who is famous with his ability to throw sets away easily,could be a potential banker.

[jaywyte]

Does anyone else think that the odds on Dan Evans make for a good handicap bet? At first glance, out of all the matches you would think this is one of the more obvious results. But going purely on the form of Evans in this tournament so far and the fact that I don't believe wawrinka has played anywhere near his best, nor has he had to, I wonder if there is value here?

[neilovan]

38 minutes ago, jaywyte said:

Does anyone else think that the odds on Dan Evans make for a good handicap bet? At first glance, out of all the matches you would think this is one of the more obvious results. But going purely on the form of Evans in this tournament so far and the fact that I don't believe wawrinka has played anywhere near his best, nor has he had to, I wonder if there is value here?

Wawrinka scares me. When he is on, it half looks like he is not trying. He hits a ridiculous 'heavy' ball. I watched the Wawrinka Verdasco game, and he was in total control. Verdasco was kind of in the match, but could not win any of the big points. Once or twice Wawrinka hits shots that left me thinking WTF did that come from ?  He's got plenty in the tank ...

 

[jaywyte]

I agree, when he's on it's scary. I remember his demolition of Djokovic last year. And Djokovic was playing well! Wawrinka just out hit him in what was one of the best matches I've seen. It reminded of me of watching Gonzalez back in the day. Man could that guy hit a ball, shame it went out koremoften than went in otherwise I think he would have been one of the most dominant players ever. It's so frustrating with wawrinka though because sometimes he can just go off boil in the drop of that and when he does, just looks like he can't be bothered.

[WinningAdvice]

How about in the women's singles? I can easily see a Radwanska vs Williams match up.

[CzechPunter]

Back M.Baghdatis/G.Monfils - Over 34.5 games at 1.85 with BetVictor

While Monfils hasn't been making a mess out of his tournament just yet, I haven't been amazed by his play apart from his first match against Muller. He was really focused there, but it seems that he's trying to slip into too much showmanship again and he didn't look all that superb against Satral and Almagro, just looking content with getting things done somehow. Baghdatis will be the toughest test yet and I fancy him to cover this line much more often than not. I know that Monfils crushed him in Cincinnati, but the atmosphere will get the Cypriot up here.

[four-leaf]

Caroline Wozniacki to beat Madison Keys for a 8/10 stake at 2.75 with bet365

I think Madison have been to inconsistent during this years US open while Caroline have shown fenomenal tennis especially in her last match against Niculescu. The roller coaster Madison had big problems against Naomi Osaka och could have lost third set easily after being down 5-1.

Now she's up against one of the best defenders out there in Caroline and I think this task might be to tough for Madison. The defense is superb from Caroline and here movement to and it will frustrate Madison. I therefore think we might see Carolines comeback continue so she will reach the quarter.

[enano21]

Don't forget that Monfils was feeling some kind of pain against Baghdatis in Cincinnati and was about to retire through to end of first set. But then Baghdatis was so miserable that Monfils decided to go on and won the game 7-5, 6-0. Even half-injured Monfils bageled Baghdatis and I have no idea how Cypriot will cope with healthy, fully-prepared Monfils. Also worth to mention that Monfils have looked like the most focused version of himself in the last weeks. I have endless respect for Czech's tips but I cannot see a way to Baghy to steal a set from Frenchmen.

Also agree on Wozniacki. Madison wouldn't even be here if Osaka had enough charachter to hold on her serve twice. Japanese lost his control and temper totally after 5-3 and lost to not Keys but herself. On the other hand Woz was consistent through to all game against Niculescu. And playing against Keys is much much easier for her to play ag. Niculescu. Cause Woz naturally is a counter-puncher but she had to be offensive player at Niculescu's game. However she will play her natural game against American now and under these circumstances 2.94 is a must taken bet for me.

Edited September 4, 2016 by enano21

[neilovan]

4 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Caroline Wozniacki to beat Madison Keys for a 8/10 stake at 2.75 with bet365

I think Madison have been to inconsistent during this years US open while Caroline have shown fenomenal tennis especially in her last match against Niculescu. The roller coaster Madison had big problems against Naomi Osaka och could have lost third set easily after being down 5-1.

Now she's up against one of the best defenders out there in Caroline and I think this task might be to tough for Madison. The defense is superb from Caroline and here movement to and it will frustrate Madison. I therefore think we might see Carolines comeback continue so she will reach the quarter.

I have this as an easy victory for Keys. For me Wozniacki is so 1 dimensional.  Solid from the baseline, runs hard, can't overpower anyone. Osaka blew a 5-1 lead, but it's tough when you are 95 in the world with a chance for a huge win. It builds experience, and in hindsight, she has had a great tournament. I think Keys overpowers wozni. 

What a great day of tennis ahead. Really looking forward to it. Nadal v Pouille, Novak v Edmund, and Tsonga v Sock

[CzechPunter]

Congrats to those who were on Wozniacki!

Back Juan Martin del Potro to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.40 with Skybet

Keeping it simple with the outright match bet here, but it's hard not to fancy Del Potro against Thiem right here and right now, especially since the Argentinian was able to beat the Austrian a few months ago back when he wasn't fully fit yet. He is now, whereas Thiem has dropped down a bit, so this is an excellent chance for the comeback man that's yet to drop a set in the tournament.

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, neilovan said:

I have this as an easy victory for Keys. For me Wozniacki is so 1 dimensional.  Solid from the baseline, runs hard, can't overpower anyone. Osaka blew a 5-1 lead, but it's tough when you are 95 in the world with a chance for a huge win. It builds experience, and in hindsight, she has had a great tournament. I think Keys overpowers wozni. 

What a great day of tennis ahead. Really looking forward to it. Nadal v Pouille, Novak v Edmund, and Tsonga v Sock

WTF was that. That's why I don't bet woman's, I don't know what I am doing. Wozi comes back from 4 -0  to Knutzi and never looks back 

[neilovan]

Watching Sock play amazes me. Kills me against Cilic, and then fires marshmallows the entire game against Tsonga.

Trying to hit the cover off the ball, and hitting everything way to short. Terrible tactics. 

[owenclass]

Novak Djokovic vs Kyle Edmund

Over 31.5 games evens paddy power

I fancy this match to be lot closer than people think. I feel Edmunds opponent will be a bit rusty and the first set will be tight, and after that the favourite will come out on top. But dont be surprised if Edmund wins a set

 

Petra Kvitova vs Angelique Kerber

Over 21.5 games 10/11 paddy power

The head to head between these two is quite close, with both players playing well and are comfortable on their favourite surface. So the signs are that this could be a long match

Edited September 5, 2016 by owenclass

[neilovan]

Pouille Wins.

Holy Cow What a match. Man, I saw his heart and fire when he beat Del Potro at WImbledon. The future of the men's game

Edited September 4, 2016 by neilovan

[WinningAdvice]

Backing Murray to win against Dimitrov at 1.15 with sbobet

Grigor dubbed as baby Fed is surely one of the rising stars. He has proven that he can upset some big names. However, with Murray's current form? He doesn't stand a chance.

[tomagio]

5 minutes ago, WinningAdvice said:

Backing Murray to win against Dimitrov at 1.15 with sbobet

Grigor dubbed as baby Fed is surely one of the rising stars. He has proven that he can upset some big names. However, with Murray's current form? He doesn't stand a chance.

No value imo. Personally doesn't take odds under 1.4, it's way to hell imo

[clubgowi]

US Open Tennis: Agnieszka Radwanska - Ana Konjuh

Ana Konjuh bacame the youngest player in almost a decade to win a main tour event last year, she was a great junior, winning both the Australian and US Opens, that title here in New York was hard earned and she had to beat Ostapenko, Bellis and Chirico , three players who have made a huge impact in the seniors recently, just to make the semis. She has already faced today's opponent, the world number 4, Agnieszka Radwanska, at Wimbledon in the summer, losing 9-7 in the 3rd, even that scoreline doesn't quite tell the full story, Konjuh would have won had she not picked up an injury during the match and even then had match points, including one which hit the net and hung in the air for (seemingly) seconds before deciding to drop on the "wrong" side for the young Croatian.

We have not seen much of her since, but she won four matches in New Haven in build up and has looked good here and has been serving big, pretty much almost on a par with Naomi Broady who had Radwanska in trouble early in their second round match up, winning 30 of 40 points on first serve despite losing the second set 6-3. I have nothing but admiration for Radwanska who is the most intelligent of players and has an incredible defence and always plays to her strengths, but she is never going to blast anyone off court and I think there will be a few cheap points for Konjuh, who will mix things up and come to the net and she is not without a chance if she just does a little better with her second serve than she did at the All England Club. Agnie in three again would not surprise, but this total line could easily be covered in two and has to be the way to go.

over 19.5 games 1.943 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro

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[CzechPunter]

Back L.Pouille/G.Monfils - Over 36.5 games at 1.90 with BetVictor

As much as I respect Monfils for keeping a perfect record here, I think that the line should be slightly higher here considering how resilient Pouille has been. There's always the risk of people self-destructing after a big win and I'm often trying to cash in when these situations arise, but the Frenchman is mature and he won by outplaying Nadal regularly, not by playing some incredible ball-bashing and getting luck. He might not be your idea of a fabulous player, but he's playing like a top 10 player at the moment and he should take Monfils close, even though I'd expect him to run out of fuel if this goes to the decider. I mean come on - this guy has already outplayed Bautista-Agut and Nadal here, he's not going to self-destruct mentally against Monfils, especially since he didn't self-destruct against him in last year's Australian Open (where they played a five-setter).

[sportbetting77]

For me Wawrinka will be just an ordinary player with a great back hand. I lost with him a lot of bets when he was to win surely. Cannot believe you can lose a set from 5-4 and service ... Made me lose my time and money.

[neilovan]

I'm looking at the online bookmaker here. They forget to close the Venus Williams Pliskova game. Williams up a set and 3-1

and I am getting great odds. I reckon this is to good to be passed up. I dump 5 units on WIlliams,  and she disintegrates .

Serves me right for betting on a woman's tennis game. If I was her coach, I would be to ashamed to take a cheque. I would fire myself !!! Tactically incompetent ! You have an opponent with long arms and legs. Serve into her pockets (close to or at the body) and don't let her swing. Move her around instead of hitting 2- 4 balls right down the middle of the court. Idiotic and pretty basic.

I forget which pro said "woman's tennis is a 45 minute waste of time" ! 

 

Looking at upcoming men's games, I just cannot see any value on Monfils over Poullie at 1.6 to 10.

Forget whatever you read about Nadal and Poullie. Nadal played unreal, and Poullie even better.

How many people have taken it to him, and blasted him off the court in a 1st set ? The quality of this match was off the charts. The unforced errors were minimal. The  Monfils v Baghdatis soft ball game was a weird joke. They were pushing the ball around, playing footsie with each other. Bizarre !

I think Monfils gets beat here and odds of 4.2 on Poullie look great. 

 

Anther bet I kind of like is Gregor Dimitrov to win the 1st set against Murray. I reckon this is 50-50, and to get 2.5 looks a nice price. Murray has a tendency to start slow and wear his opponents down. Dimitrov 1st set and Poullie to win is 17.5 to 1 for me, for 1.5 units.

 

As an offTopic subject. There is a guy called Kevin Skinner commentating. I have never been more irritated (over days) of listening to his nonstop vitriol. Verbal diarrhea. Man, is that guy annoying. Why can't he just STFU ! I would personally pull his tongue out ( preferably through his a__hole). He makes Robbie Koening sound great, and I can't stand that opinionated clown either.

 

 

Edited September 5, 2016 by neilovan

[liquidglass]

6 hours ago, neilovan said:

I'm looking at the online bookmaker here. They forget to close the Venus Williams Pliskova game. Williams up a set and 3-1

and I am getting great odds. I reckon this is to good to be passed up. I dump 5 units on WIlliams,  and she disintegrates .

Serves me right for betting on a woman's tennis game. If I was her coach, I would be to ashamed to take a cheque. I would fire myself !!! Tactically incompetent ! You have an opponent with long arms and legs. Serve into her pockets (close to or at the body) and don't let her swing. Move her around instead of hitting 2- 4 balls right down the middle of the court. Idiotic and pretty basic.

I forget which pro said "woman's tennis is a 45 minute waste of time" ! 

 

Looking at upcoming men's games, I just cannot see any value on Monfils over Poullie at 1.6 to 10.

Forget whatever you read about Nadal and Poullie. Nadal played unreal, and Poullie even better.

How many people have taken it to him, and blasted him off the court in a 1st set ? The quality of this match was off the charts. The unforced errors were minimal. The  Monfils v Baghdatis soft ball game was a weird joke. They were pushing the ball around, playing footsie with each other. Bizarre !

I think Monfils gets beat here and odds of 4.2 on Poullie look great. 

 

Anther bet I kind of like is Gregor Dimitrov to win the 1st set against Murray. I reckon this is 50-50, and to get 2.5 looks a nice price. Murray has a tendency to start slow and wear his opponents down. Dimitrov 1st set and Poullie to win is 17.5 to 1 for me, for 1.5 units.

 

As an offTopic subject. There is a guy called Kevin Skinner commentating. I have never been more irritated (over days) of listening to his nonstop vitriol. Verbal diarrhea. Man, is that guy annoying. Why can't he just STFU ! I would personally pull his tongue out ( preferably through his a__hole). He makes Robbie Koening sound great, and I can't stand that opinionated clown either.

 

 

I believe you have had a long and very taxing US Open and trust me when I say you need a break. Sometimes you just need to get away from it all to try to restore your sanity. You really do not think you will make a sweeping and pointless statement like "women's tennis is a 45 minute waste of time" and get away with it. Even granted you said it in frustration, it still cannot be accepted on any level, because that is the bedrock of excitement in tennis. Also Pouille is a Frenchman who has just played 5 sets vs Monfils the showman in a local derby? You certainly do not want to put your cash on that and watch too because double tragedy beckons for sure.

[neilovan]

6 hours ago, liquidglass said:

I believe you have had a long and very taxing US Open and trust me when I say you need a break. Sometimes you just need to get away from it all to try to restore your sanity. You really do not think you will make a sweeping and pointless statement like "women's tennis is a 45 minute waste of time" and get away with it. Even granted you said it in frustration, it still cannot be accepted on any level, because that is the bedrock of excitement in tennis. Also Pouille is a Frenchman who has just played 5 sets vs Monfils the showman in a local derby? You certainly do not want to put your cash on that and watch too because double tragedy beckons for sure.

I never said that. You need to read the post again or brush up on your comprehension. Also understand, that you are not qualified to read my state of mind. You know nothing about me !

Edited September 6, 2016 by neilovan

[recklessrookie]

I'm no tennis expert but Pouille +6.5 at 1.73 has to be highly likely?

They have met once before and that was a close 5 setter. And Pouille outplayed Nadal, a QF already matches Monfils best ever peformance at the US Open and hes 30.

Already slightly annoyed that i only took Pouille on a handicap as opposed to outright win against Nadal but I rarely back high odds and will probably take the handicap again.

[neilovan]

6 minutes ago, recklessrookie said:

I'm no tennis expert but Pouille +6.5 at 1.73 has to be highly likely?

They have met once before and that was a close 5 setter. And Pouille outplayed Nadal, a QF already matches Monfils best ever peformance at the US Open and hes 30.

Already slightly annoyed that i only took Pouille on a handicap as opposed to outright win against Nadal but I rarely back high odds and will probably take the handicap again.

Poullie has to be doing something right physically after games. Three five setters in a row, should be terminal, but he has come back looking strong every time. I thought he would lose to Agut and he won there, and to come back and break Nadal twice in the 5th was freaky. It's all quite interesting because Monfils, Tsonga and Poullie are probably playing their best tennis in some time. Monfils has definitely had an easier run to this point : Muller (37), Satral (227), Almagro (48), Baghdatis (44).

[liquidglass]

5 hours ago, neilovan said:

I never said that. You need to read the post again or brush up on your comprehension. Also understand, that you are not qualified to read my state of mind. You know nothing about me !

I apologise if what I said roughed your feathers a bit. The bit about restoring your sanity was not anything directed to you in particular in terms of your state of mind. In fact, it is a general term that is always applicable to every one including me after several hours of indulgence. It is the reason why myself and a few others seem to have taken an enforced break. The default mode of operation in this addictive indulgence is that you get more wrong than right even in 50/50 situations. One is just always naturally attracted to losers regardless of methodology. The harder you try, the more losers you pick out. That sometimes the situation could become so embarrassing where you can no longer seem to get anything right. These are situations where we almost think we are crazy, and a sanity restoration is called for. It is impossible to fight against "market forces" the potent force behind money.  These are just spiritual principles that one either knows or does not know. In the same way if one was a small forex broker as it were, all you would need to do in most cases is just use your clients  investment to back against them. Since they will always more times be subject to the control of the market force., you will always stand to make a huge profit. Even then market forces can still turn out against you in such a favourable position and lead you into untimely disaster from a derailment against hugely the odds. Hey, we are on the same side buddy. You are probably in your honeymoon stage like most of us once were. And like when you progress into the marriage proper,  you suddenly discover that sex everyday is not as interesting as you originally thought it was. Good luck though!!

[owenclass]

Mens Singles Quarter final :

Juan Martin Del Potro vs Stanislas Wawrinka

What do you think guys about the Juan Martin Del Potro, Stanislas Wawrinka match tomorrow

The bookies have made Del Potro as favourite to win the match but i feel that he has not played a lot of matches over the last two years and he is playing in a Grand Slam quarter final against a two time Grand slam champion over five sets. I feel that at the crucial points Wawrinka will have that bit extra as he has played more of these type of matches over the last few years and this maybe will be a step too far for Del Potro especially recovering from his wrist injury and not been able to play the shots he used to do. Wawrinka will target his weaknesses, and over five sets will start to wear him down

So im going for Wawrinka to win the match in four sets

 

Wawrinka to win the match 5/4 paddy power

Over 40.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Wawrinka to win 3-1 7/2 paddy power

Edited September 6, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

I would be all over Del Potro were it not for his match against Thiem and especially the fact that he had a trainer out for his right shoulder. Just one from the WTA for me then.

Back Serena Williams (-4.5) to beat Simona Halep at 1.80 with BetVictor

While I'm still hoping for Kerber to win the entire thing and land my big pre-tournament outright, Serena Williams has shown a lot so far in this event and it's hard to see past her right now. What's more, Halep has always been a great match-up for her and I don't see how the Romanian could possibly fix the match-up problems apart from finding her best form and hoping that Williams will let her to get into the game. That can happen, I've got no doubts about that (see Vinci-Williams from last year), but an easy win for Williams is the most likely result here.