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Back Sara Errani to beat Shelby Rogers at 1.80 with Coral

Am I missing something here? Errani has declined by quite a bit in recent times, but she's still much better than Rogers imo, with the American having exactly one good run this year. That was in the French Open, where she beat the likes of Kvitova, Pliskova and Begu, but she's 3-6 on hard courts for the season and she's won exactly one match since the glorious run, beating Mladenovic in New Haven. Errani should be 1.57 tops in my opinion.

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Back Radek Stepanek to beat Gilles Simon at 2.20 with BetVictor

Simon should be - in theory - having the edge here given the longer format, but he's in such a bad form at the moment that I don't trust him at all. He's been in serious decline for basically the entire season, with his win over Coric being the only good recent result. In the meantime, he managed to lose against guys like Schwartzmann, Monteiro and Edmund. Stepanek, on the other hand, is flying high - not only has he qualified here, but he also won a medal in the Olympics. Since May, he has four singles losses against Murray, Kohli, Kyrgios and Djokovic, which is an excellent record - and I think he's got every chance to win here as well.

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Back Alesandro Giannessi to beat Denis Kudla at 2.75 with Ladbrokes

I don't have anything against Kudla, but he hasn't won a match since the grass court season and he's folded in every single match since Wimbledon, where he shockingly lost against Dzumhur at similar odds as in this match. Giannessi, on the other hand, has qualified here with decent wins and he's always looked like a very determined player to me, which could count for a lot if this match gets long and tough. Interestingly, Kudla has never done well in his previous US Open showings, so perhaps there are some nerves for him when playing on the big stage in front of a home crowd.

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Back Jelena Ostapenko to beat Petra Kvitova at 3.50 with Skybet

This has to be tried after the disaster against Radwanska in New Haven. Not only did Kvitova lose that match horribly, but she also claimed to be ill afterwards and even saying that she might not be fully fit for the US Open. That's not the only thing to be worried about here from her side, however - she's already lost against Ostapenko twice in this very season, after all. There's no doubt that Kvitova is the favourite here, but these odds look too juicy given the circumstances.

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Back Angelique Kerber to win the 2016 US Open at 9.00 with BetVictor

A bit of a long shot, of course, but I honestly believe that Kerber is the player to beat on the WTA at the moment with Williams struggling. Kerber has two GS finals this year, a big goal to strive for, and an excellent form. She did lose against Pliskova in Cincinnati, but come on - she was expected to go out early after the shock loss against Puig, but she beat Strycova, Suarez-Navarro and Halep before finally running out of energy, so it was a massively good result in my opinion. She's now had a week to get herself ready physically and mentally and I think that she'll be ready to deliver.

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Alexander Dolgopolov to beat David Ferrer at 3.25 with bet365

The happy days of David Ferrer seems to have come to an end this season. He will have a very hard time here. Not going to be easy for him to beat Dolgopolov. When Ferrer was on top of his game he could beat anyone but now he instead loses to anyone. Since the french open where he lost badly to Berdych he's lost to Mahut in SW19 also badly and after that he dropped a set to Calvin Hemery ranked outside top 300 in Bastad and lost in the same tournament to Albert Ramos in straight sets also a player he would have beaten in his glory days. Then it got even worse when he lost in the olympics to Evgeniy Donskoy after winning first set and being a break up in second and right after that in Cincinatti he lost to Julien Benneteau a player who also has seen better days but still David could not win. Alexander has already beaten David once in straight sets this season in Acapulco and he has a great chance to do it again.

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3 hours ago, Robaldo said:

Great tips! Keep up the good work!

Thanks! I could really do with a winning streak at this US Open, however, as I need one to get my season back on the profit track. So far, it's all been very balanced with plenty of ups and downs, but the awful French Open has left its mark that I haven't been able to erase just yet.

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Going for many more after giving all the matches a think. Good luck to everyone who will be betting!

Back Pauline Parmentier to beat Caroline Garcia at 4.00 with Skybet

The problems keep on piling for Garcia, who hasn't been her usual self since Wimbledon. She has plenty of personal issues, plenty of results issues and the fact that the French tennis association is now against her isn't going to help things either, so she shouldn't be a 1.25 fav against pretty much anyone and much less against someone who can do damage in the Grand Slams and who has beaten her before. It was almost painful to see her play against Flipkens in New Haven, so I'll take my chances here.

Back Nao Hibino to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 3.40 with BetVictor

Have already gone against Mladenovic a couple of times with good results and I'm happy to do that again at odds like this. She got absolutely crushed by Rogers in her last match and she hasn't been able to string wins together for quite some time now, which is worrying given that she is all about momentum. Chances are that she also isn't the right place mentally now that she's got suspended by the French tennis federation over some petty issues, so Hibino has a real chance here imo.

Back Montserrat Gonzalez to beat Danka Kovinic at 3.25 with Paddy Power

A realistic chance for an upset here imo, with an in-form player facing an out-of-form one. Gonzalez has upset three strong players in the qualifiers, including Ivana Jorovic, while Kovinic hasn't had a good win since June, where she won a small ITF tournament in Marseille. She's also never done well in the US Open, so to have her above 3.00 looks a bit stupid. Gonzalez is living a dream in a sense and it doesn't have to stop in the first round.

Back Gilles Muller to beat Gael Monfils at 4.00 with Skybet

Monfils didn't show up for his last match due to back issues and we all know how much his career is getting derailed with those, while Muller has been at his ultra-solid best recently. He's always a danger for the seeds thanks to his serve that's both big and consistent - it's just really hard to get back to a set against him if you drop a serve even just once. Muller won their only previous hard-court match, might just be the fitter of the two at this point of time, and he has had his fair share of big scalps in the US Open as well (Roddick, Davydenko, Haas, Youzhny - all in their primes).

Back Kyle Edmund to beat Richard Gasquet at 4.33 with Skybet

Needs to be taken with a bookie that doesn't void retirements such as Skybet, as those who saw Gasquet-Millman will know that the Frenchman is far from being out of the woods injury-wise. He's still a level above Edmund in terms of quality, but he's never been the fittest guy around and the injury seems to be getting worse rather than better, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Edmund outlast him.

Back Vasek Pospisil (-2.5) to beat Jozef Kovalik at 1.85 with BetVictor

Pospisil has certainly seen better days singles-wise, but I feel that a lot of his results had to do with bad draws - for example, he's had to face Monfils twice recently and the Frenchman isn't a player most guys would be able to beat in his current form. Even with that, however, Pospisil is still competing with the best week in and week out, while Kovalik is yet to make it from the Challenger circuit. Importantly, he's never won a GS match before and he's here only thanks to some lucky loser luck, so I really don't see him winning.

Back Paul-Henri Mathieu (-5.5) to beat Christian Harrison at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Mathieu isn't losing this unless he gets injured, plain and simple. Christian Harrison shouldn't even be here to be honest, he's had tremendous luck during the qualifiers, with Diez somehow managing to lose and Kravchuk retiring. So far in this season, he hasn't even made it to a Challenger main draw, while Mathieu is having a super-solid one by his standards and there's no reason for him to tank this after looking alright against Robert in the week before. I appreciate that Harrison has nothing to lose here, but the quality gap is massive here. Probably the biggest mis-match of the first round in all honesty.

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Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat (-2.5 sets) Ilya Ivashka at 2.00 with bet365

What's this if not a routine blowout win for Pablo who just won his first ATP title and here faces 22 year old Ilya Ivashka ranked 181. A qualifier who on the way to the maindraw had some luck with the draw not needing to face any dangerous players at all. Just plain luck that he only had to face Nicolas Kicker who only had played one hardcourt match all season against Taylor Fritz in Miami qualifiers. Then he got to face Ryan Shane ranked 652 and last Mattias Bachinger ranked 514 who isn't very good nowadays. This reeks blowout. Pablo will outplay poor Ivashka easily. Ivashka hasn't even faced a top 50 player so far this season because he's only played on Challenger and Futures level except for his attempt to qualify for SW19 where he lost to Tim Smyczek in straight sets. And by the way he never has played in a Grand slam main draw as the attempt to qualify for SW19 this season was his first try to get in to a grand slam. This Pablo should take easily enough for this bet to come in.

Edited by four-leaf

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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Going for many more after giving all the matches a think. Good luck to everyone who will be betting!

Back Pauline Parmentier to beat Caroline Garcia at 4.00 with Skybet

The problems keep on piling for Garcia, who hasn't been her usual self since Wimbledon. She has plenty of personal issues, plenty of results issues and the fact that the French tennis association is now against her isn't going to help things either, so she shouldn't be a 1.25 fav against pretty much anyone and much less against someone who can do damage in the Grand Slams and who has beaten her before. It was almost painful to see her play against Flipkens in New Haven, so I'll take my chances here.

Back Nao Hibino to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 3.40 with BetVictor

Have already gone against Mladenovic a couple of times with good results and I'm happy to do that again at odds like this. She got absolutely crushed by Rogers in her last match and she hasn't been able to string wins together for quite some time now, which is worrying given that she is all about momentum. Chances are that she also isn't the right place mentally now that she's got suspended by the French tennis federation over some petty issues, so Hibino has a real chance here imo.

Back Montserrat Gonzalez to beat Danka Kovinic at 3.25 with Paddy Power

A realistic chance for an upset here imo, with an in-form player facing an out-of-form one. Gonzalez has upset three strong players in the qualifiers, including Ivana Jorovic, while Kovinic hasn't had a good win since June, where she won a small ITF tournament in Marseille. She's also never done well in the US Open, so to have her above 3.00 looks a bit stupid. Gonzalez is living a dream in a sense and it doesn't have to stop in the first round.

Back Gilles Muller to beat Gael Monfils at 4.00 with Skybet

Monfils didn't show up for his last match due to back issues and we all know how much his career is getting derailed with those, while Muller has been at his ultra-solid best recently. He's always a danger for the seeds thanks to his serve that's both big and consistent - it's just really hard to get back to a set against him if you drop a serve even just once. Muller won their only previous hard-court match, might just be the fitter of the two at this point of time, and he has had his fair share of big scalps in the US Open as well (Roddick, Davydenko, Haas, Youzhny - all in their primes).

Back Kyle Edmund to beat Richard Gasquet at 4.33 with Skybet

Needs to be taken with a bookie that doesn't void retirements such as Skybet, as those who saw Gasquet-Millman will know that the Frenchman is far from being out of the woods injury-wise. He's still a level above Edmund in terms of quality, but he's never been the fittest guy around and the injury seems to be getting worse rather than better, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Edmund outlast him.

Back Vasek Pospisil (-2.5) to beat Jozef Kovalik at 1.85 with BetVictor

Pospisil has certainly seen better days singles-wise, but I feel that a lot of his results had to do with bad draws - for example, he's had to face Monfils twice recently and the Frenchman isn't a player most guys would be able to beat in his current form. Even with that, however, Pospisil is still competing with the best week in and week out, while Kovalik is yet to make it from the Challenger circuit. Importantly, he's never won a GS match before and he's here only thanks to some lucky loser luck, so I really don't see him winning.

Back Paul-Henri Mathieu (-5.5) to beat Christian Harrison at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Mathieu isn't losing this unless he gets injured, plain and simple. Christian Harrison shouldn't even be here to be honest, he's had tremendous luck during the qualifiers, with Diez somehow managing to lose and Kravchuk retiring. So far in this season, he hasn't even made it to a Challenger main draw, while Mathieu is having a super-solid one by his standards and there's no reason for him to tank this after looking alright against Robert in the week before. I appreciate that Harrison has nothing to lose here, but the quality gap is massive here. Probably the biggest mis-match of the first round in all honesty.

Maybe that is the intriguing thing about grand slams especially - the fact that if you are able to think it clearly and mathematically, then it probably is not right. I agree with you totally about Harrison, it is just important to also note that these next two factors are probably more important than everything else you have mentioned. Harrison is a wild card and he is at home. He also has a current winning streak(whatever it is worth) win or lose, I feel quite certain that he will give the out-of-date Mathieu a real scare Remember he played well to subdue kravchuk before he retired. Nothing was given to him easy.  Harrison holds a potent chance here to progress!!

 

 

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Day one

 

Shelby Rogers to beat Sara Errani 11/10

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I think this could a great match for Shelby playing in front of her own crowd, and that could give her the edge as she is a talented player who go far in the tournament

 

Madison Keys to win her Quarter 7/2 paddy power

She should go far in this tournament and she has only got Muguruza who has been in form since she won the French Open

 

 

Edited by owenclass

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Just a quarter bet for me so far.

Juan Martin Del Potro to win US Open Quarter 3 @ 4.50 Betfair Sportsbook

I liked what I saw of Del Potro at the Olympics, where he beat Djokovic and Nadal on his way to the final. His forehand looked absolutely massive to me, which is a really important shot for the Argentine now given that his backhand is weaker than it used to be. If he can deploy it as effectively as he did in Rio then he should be able to finish points more quickly and lessen the chances for his opponents to attack his backhand side. The main opposition in this quarter comes from Wawrinka, Kyrgios and Thiem but right now I favour Del Potro over all three. Wawrinka didn't look great in his loss last time out against Dimitrov, Kyrgios remains somewhat enigmatic in my book and Thiem has hardly had any matches on hard recently. Not only that, but another facet of Del Potro's game that looked in good shape at the Olympics and that could help him here was his fighting spirit. He won a number of close sets and matches and pushed Murray all the way in pursuit of the Gold Medal, and I think that bodes well heading into this tournament which also holds special memories for him.

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Small stake on an outright as well.

Simona Halep to win US Open @ 12.00 Coral

One player who could be coming into this tournament slightly under the radar is Halep. Whilst the focus is on Williams and to a lesser extent Kerber, the Romanian has hardly been mentioned despite having won two tournaments since Wimbledon as well as making the last four in Cincinatti a couple of weeks ago. She's got to get past Williams in her quarter which would be a tough ask based on previous meetings between the two, but we saw last year with Vinci that it is possible to beat Williams even if you haven't got a great record against her.

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15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Going for many more after giving all the matches a think. Good luck to everyone who will be betting!

Back Pauline Parmentier to beat Caroline Garcia at 4.00 with Skybet

The problems keep on piling for Garcia, who hasn't been her usual self since Wimbledon. She has plenty of personal issues, plenty of results issues and the fact that the French tennis association is now against her isn't going to help things either, so she shouldn't be a 1.25 fav against pretty much anyone and much less against someone who can do damage in the Grand Slams and who has beaten her before. It was almost painful to see her play against Flipkens in New Haven, so I'll take my chances here.

Back Nao Hibino to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 3.40 with BetVictor

Have already gone against Mladenovic a couple of times with good results and I'm happy to do that again at odds like this. She got absolutely crushed by Rogers in her last match and she hasn't been able to string wins together for quite some time now, which is worrying given that she is all about momentum. Chances are that she also isn't the right place mentally now that she's got suspended by the French tennis federation over some petty issues, so Hibino has a real chance here imo.

Back Montserrat Gonzalez to beat Danka Kovinic at 3.25 with Paddy Power

A realistic chance for an upset here imo, with an in-form player facing an out-of-form one. Gonzalez has upset three strong players in the qualifiers, including Ivana Jorovic, while Kovinic hasn't had a good win since June, where she won a small ITF tournament in Marseille. She's also never done well in the US Open, so to have her above 3.00 looks a bit stupid. Gonzalez is living a dream in a sense and it doesn't have to stop in the first round.

Back Gilles Muller to beat Gael Monfils at 4.00 with Skybet

Monfils didn't show up for his last match due to back issues and we all know how much his career is getting derailed with those, while Muller has been at his ultra-solid best recently. He's always a danger for the seeds thanks to his serve that's both big and consistent - it's just really hard to get back to a set against him if you drop a serve even just once. Muller won their only previous hard-court match, might just be the fitter of the two at this point of time, and he has had his fair share of big scalps in the US Open as well (Roddick, Davydenko, Haas, Youzhny - all in their primes).

Back Kyle Edmund to beat Richard Gasquet at 4.33 with Skybet

Needs to be taken with a bookie that doesn't void retirements such as Skybet, as those who saw Gasquet-Millman will know that the Frenchman is far from being out of the woods injury-wise. He's still a level above Edmund in terms of quality, but he's never been the fittest guy around and the injury seems to be getting worse rather than better, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Edmund outlast him.

Back Vasek Pospisil (-2.5) to beat Jozef Kovalik at 1.85 with BetVictor

Pospisil has certainly seen better days singles-wise, but I feel that a lot of his results had to do with bad draws - for example, he's had to face Monfils twice recently and the Frenchman isn't a player most guys would be able to beat in his current form. Even with that, however, Pospisil is still competing with the best week in and week out, while Kovalik is yet to make it from the Challenger circuit. Importantly, he's never won a GS match before and he's here only thanks to some lucky loser luck, so I really don't see him winning.

Back Paul-Henri Mathieu (-5.5) to beat Christian Harrison at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Mathieu isn't losing this unless he gets injured, plain and simple. Christian Harrison shouldn't even be here to be honest, he's had tremendous luck during the qualifiers, with Diez somehow managing to lose and Kravchuk retiring. So far in this season, he hasn't even made it to a Challenger main draw, while Mathieu is having a super-solid one by his standards and there's no reason for him to tank this after looking alright against Robert in the week before. I appreciate that Harrison has nothing to lose here, but the quality gap is massive here. Probably the biggest mis-match of the first round in all honesty.

I have no idea about Parmentier and put on C.Harrison. For rest I can say "yes,yes, yes"

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Back Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 4.00 with Skybet

At the slight risk of overdoing things and getting into a bad position from day one, I'll throw this one in as well looking at the weather. It should be a hot and humid day today, so stamina may become an issue for some and who knows how fit Bautista will be, as he looked absolutely out-of-sorts in the final set against Carreno-Busta. He's one of those players that are known for never giving up and yet, one had the feeling that he did give up after going a break down in the decider. GGL doesn't have a great form, but he's still a classy player and could take this if he weathers the early storm. It's either Bautista 3-0 or an incredibly close match that GGL might win.

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Having lived in Philadelphia for a for years, you need to take the weather into account. Day games can be really hot and humid. Europeans not used to this will struggle. Today it's meant to be 31 degrees , 55% humidity. It's pretty hot especially for high physical exertion.

I'm not going for any outsiders.

Just want five reasonably low priced favorites to do the business.

A Seppi to beat S.Robert (0.49)

B. Paire to beat D. Lajovic (0.44)

L. Pouille to beat M.Kukushkin (0.22)

R. Bautista Agut to beat Garcia Lopez (0.25)

N. Almagro to beat M. Fucsovics  (0.49)

Gives about 3.8 to 1 and you can probably get them to stretch it to 4 - 1.

I gotta be honest. I would'nt bet on woman's tennis if you gave me the money.

They are too inconsistent, and in a 2 set sprint all kinds of lousy stuff happens. They drop serve like pennies into a wishing well. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by neilovan

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56 minutes ago, tit@n said:

wow, Paire is killing me (like always).

Starts like a train, and then vanishes. Huge break of serve to win 4th set. WIll start serving in 5th. Big advantage :ok

Edited by neilovan

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Fernando Verdasco vs Stan Wawrinka

Verdasco to win the match 12/5 paddy power

Over 37.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I have a feeling this might go all the way as Wawrinka has still got trouble with his back, and with the heat it it is going to be tough for him, so expect him to lose a set

Edited by owenclass

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15 hours ago, neilovan said:

Having lived in Philadelphia for a for years, you need to take the weather into account. Day games can be really hot and humid. Europeans not used to this will struggle. Today it's meant to be 31 degrees , 55% humidity. It's pretty hot especially for high physical exertion.

I'm not going for any outsiders.

Just want five reasonably low priced favorites to do the business.

A Seppi to beat S.Robert (0.49)

B. Paire to beat D. Lajovic (0.44)

L. Pouille to beat M.Kukushkin (0.22)

R. Bautista Agut to beat Garcia Lopez (0.25)

N. Almagro to beat M. Fucsovics  (0.49)

Gives about 3.8 to 1 and you can probably get them to stretch it to 4 - 1.

I gotta be honest. I would'nt bet on woman's tennis if you gave me the money.

They are too inconsistent, and in a 2 set sprint all kinds of lousy stuff happens. They drop serve like pennies into a wishing well. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now that is how you do it. No messing about trying to be too clever looking for big odds, 5 simple but good tips at reasonable prices. Some others on here could do well to take note. Keep it up!

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