Portugal Primeira/Segunda 2016/17

[pulsar12]

Arouca - Marítimo (30 Oct 16:00 GMT+1)

Arouca has been doing an appalling season :(, and their important defensive midfielder Nuno Coelho is not available for this match. On the opposite side, we have a Maritimo that is improving with the new coach. Alex Soares will not play this game due to injury, but is not as important as Nuno Coelho for Arouca.

Maritimo to win > 3.10

Rio Ave - Guimaraes (30 Oct 18:00 gmt+1)

Guimaraes has been doing a good season and for this game they have an edge because the current coach of Guimaraes was training Rio Ave last season. Rio Ave has been somewhat inconsistent this season, the only big win was against Sporting Lisbon.

Guimaraes to win > 2.80

[Sir Puntalot]

Great posts guys.  

[pulsar12]

On 10/27/2016, 10:27:31, pulsar12 said:

Nacional - Sporting (28 Oct 21:00 GMT+1)

over 4,5 > 5.30

Nacional to win > 7.75

BTTS > 2.00

didn't expect 0-0 FT, well...

[pulsar12]

On 10/28/2016, 11:45:30, pulsar12 said:

Arouca - Marítimo (30 Oct 16:00 GMT+1)

Maritimo to win > 3.10 - lost

Rio Ave - Guimaraes (30 Oct 18:00 gmt+1)

Guimaraes to win > 2.80 - won

Some post-match notes on this weekend:

-Guimaraes is lethal team if you give them space behind your defense.  Marega forwarder is very important and has more potential on wide stadiums with plenty of space. so is a good team to bet for handicaps.

-Guimaraes result against Rio Ave is misleading, there was a critical moment when it was 0-1, there was plenty of chances for rio ave to score. They didn't score and after guimaraes makes the 2nd goal, its all guimaraes, it could end 0-4. But if Rio Ave was able to draw, i think this could end 1-1.

-Arouca win against Maritimo is misleading, they got lucky win the end with a big mistake (unforced error) from a defender. All the game they produced almost no ofensive threat. Maritimo played better, however uninspired up front.

-Tondela trend mantains... ( they are only good at parking the bus ). When they open up the game, anything can happen. Rule of thumb - back the highest odd on 1X2 market.

-Porto still showing some inconsistency. Benfica flying top. Sporting appaling.

-Beware Boavista - despite not being great, they have solid football and can exploit unbalanced teams.

[pulsar12]

Porto - Benfica ( 6 nov)

Porto are nowhere near to be favourites to win this game, but odds show otherwise. Any odd higher than 3.00 has value for Benfica

Benfica to win >3.60

 

[pulsar12]

Guimaraes - Nacional (Fri 20:30 GMT)

Guimaraes big favourites here, and I think they can crush Nacional with Marega on the counter and with space. Nacional still not convincing on the attack and defensively unstable. By the Nacional coach words, seems that he wants to play open and discuss the game, if this is confirmed during live match I think Guimarães have a real chance of win by big difference of goals.

Guimaraes EH -1 > 2.30

Marega to score 2 or more > 5.83 

Edited November 4, 2016 by pulsar12

[malabgd]

GD Estoril v CD Tondela

GD Estoril: no absences

CD Tondela: Monteiro (7/0 m), Ferreira (9/0 m)(both probably in), Tavares (6/0 m, doubtful)

 

Rio Ave v Boavista FC

Rio Ave: Lionn (2/0 d), Villas Boas (0/0 d), Capela (0/0 d), Filipe Augusto (0/0 m), Leandrinho (0/0 m)

Boavista FC: Tiago Mesquita (8/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[pulsar12]

22 hours ago, pulsar12 said:

Guimaraes - Nacional (Fri 20:30 GMT) FT 2-1

Guimaraes big favourites here, and I think they can crush Nacional with Marega on the counter and with space. Nacional still not convincing on the attack and defensively unstable. By the Nacional coach words, seems that he wants to play open and discuss the game, if this is confirmed during live match I think Guimarães have a real chance of win by big difference of goals.

Guimaraes EH -1 > 2.30 -lost

Marega to score 2 or more > 5.83 -lost

Marega got red card early and doomed the tips. To note the very good reaction by Guimaraes after start losing 0-1, due to the great fans support. (an important note for future bets).

[NoFear]

Just now, pulsar12 said:

Marega got red card early and doomed the tips. To note the very good reaction by Guimaraes after start losing 0-1, due to the great fans support. (an important note for future bets).

any tips for today?

[pulsar12]

5 minutes ago, NoFear said:

any tips for today?

I don't find any value bet pre-live but Estoril - Tondela should be interesting to follow. I am curious about tondela strategy for this game, and i think anything can happen here since Estoril has not been impressive this season. Estoril coach said that they must win, so I expect them to play aggressive on attack. Tondela best strategy is to totally defend and play on the counter like they did with Sporting, in that case they have possibility to get a win.

[NoFear]

@pulsar12

does benefica have a player out injured or something? Porto is evens now thats why I am asking. 

[pulsar12]

1 hour ago, NoFear said:

@pulsar12

does benefica have a player out injured or something? Porto is evens now thats why I am asking. 

Fejsa and Grimaldo are confirmed out due to injury. Both are important players, even though i think Porto odds are still not worth.

[arsenalfh]

I have Portuguese family that are all Portistas so I went over to the Classico. Went to the game when I was young in Antas but and the game lived up to all expectations. Great football, unbelievable atmosphere and drama at the end. Unfortunately Porto couldn't hold out. Would definitely recommend any football fan going over for the game at some point and there's plenty to do in both Porto and Lisbon which are both beautiful cities.

Porto are a funny team. They've looked fantastic at times this season including in the Classico but also completely rubbish going forward. Maybe it's because their attack is very young but if it's just the case of the team needing time to gel I think they can push Benfica for the title.

[pulsar12]

10 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

I have Portuguese family that are all Portistas so I went over to the Classico. Went to the game when I was young in Antas but and the game lived up to all expectations. Great football, unbelievable atmosphere and drama at the end. Unfortunately Porto couldn't hold out. Would definitely recommend any football fan going over for the game at some point and there's plenty to do in both Porto and Lisbon which are both beautiful cities.

Porto are a funny team. They've looked fantastic at times this season including in the Classico but also completely rubbish going forward. Maybe it's because their attack is very young but if it's just the case of the team needing time to gel I think they can push Benfica for the title.

It will be hard for Porto to win the title. Benfica is very strong currently at all levels: skill, management, team harmony, values. Unless they get unlucky with important injured players, I believe they finnish with top with large difference of points.

Sporting is the one without any chance at all, mainly because their awful management. They probably end 4th or below.

[pulsar12]

Cup game tonight Sporting - Praiense.

Praiese is from 3rd division, and Sporting are big favourites, but Praiense has an excelent record of winning 8 and draw 2 from the last 10 matches.

According to news, Sporting is expected to put 2nd line of players as you can look here http://www.zerozero.pt/news.php?id=184378

As you see Adrien is not expected on start eleven, and many of other players are not regulars. If that eleven is confirmed, I have no problem to bet on Praiense during live match for a short timeframe(next goal, ht outcome...), because is possible that Sporting could turn around the game on late stages with key player substitutions.

An additional note: there is recent big scandal affecting Sporting president that happened on the last game with arouca. He is accused of provoking and spitting on Arouca president face ( there is public surveilance video that proves it). I don't know how much this will affect today team performance, but in my opinion this president has been degrading Sporting in long-term, with his decisions and attitudes. Video here:

https://youtu.be/gQW2Z8i1x9I

[pulsar12]

This weekend will be no 1st league matches, only nation cup and 2nd league.

Feirense - Academica ( today 16:00 GMT)

Académica has been doing a poor season. By the way, their coach has no good record on any past club, and it seems trend continues. I think Feirense win this one easily.

Feirense EH-1 > 3.25 ( Lost, 0-0 FT)

Edited November 19, 2016 by pulsar12
Outcome update

[DrO]

2 minutes ago, pulsar12 said:

This weekend will be no 1st league matches, only nation cup and 2nd league.

Feirense - Academica ( today 16:00 GMT)

Académica has been doing a poor season. By the way, their coach has no good record on any past club, and it seems trend continues. I think Feirense win this one easily.

Feirense EH-1 > 3.25

What are your thoughts about Benfica's geme tonight in Cup?

[pulsar12]

5 minutes ago, DrO said:

What are your thoughts about Benfica's geme tonight in Cup?

No bet for me. Players come from long pause and Rui Vitoria will rotate team due to next CL game. Marítimo is on ascending performance.

[malabgd]

Belenenses v FC Porto

Belenenses: Brandão (10/0 d, doubtful), Palhinha (10/1 m, suspended), Tiago Caeiro (5/1 f), Betinho (0/0 f)

FC Porto: Layún (10/0 d), Brahimi (5/1 f)

 

GD Chaves v Marítimo

GD Chaves: Felipe Lopes (6/0 d), Luís Alberto (1/0 m), Hamdou Elhouni (8/1 f), Rafael Lopes (10/0 f), João Mário (6/1 f)

Marítimo: Dyego Sousa (6/3 f, top scorer, suspended), Samuel Santos (5/0 d, suspended), Coronas (2/0 m), Soares (4/0 m), Mansour (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[pulsar12]

Tondela - Guimaraes

If the hosts dont adopt a purely defensive counter-attack strategy, there is the possibility of crush from away side. Likely homeside will not play too defensively because they are playing at home, and guimares should exploit that. They dont have Marega, but I dont think will make that much difference because this is a small stadium, soares should get the job done.

[pulsar12]

Boavista - Sporting

Boavista has been a solid team, mainly at home. I will try them at odds 11.50. Sporting has Adrien back again, but even though, they didn't yet prove their consistency...

[pulsar12]

6 hours ago, pulsar12 said:

Boavista - Sporting

Boavista has been a solid team, mainly at home. I will try them at odds 11.50. Sporting has Adrien back again, but even though, they didn't yet prove their consistency...

i did a mistake on analysis of this tip. Didn't know that Medeiros,  Idris, Bukia e Henrique are not available for boavista this match. It loses all the value without this players, it becomes a b team. Sporting already 0-1 up, probably will score more... handicaps for sporting value.

[pulsar12]

Chaves - Moreirense (ft 2-1): expect chaves to win here, they are doing a good season and play better football than Moreirense. chaves win > 2.35 - won

Nacional - Tondela (ft 3-2): Nacional is under enoumous pressure and this match can be decisive for the future of the coach. They absolutely must win this match. However on the other side we have a tricky Tondela team who is cabable of the worse but can also surprise its opponents. I think Tondela can win this as Petit should employ a defensive style and exploit emotive Nacional on the counter-attacks. tondela win > 3.75 - lost

Benfica - Sporting (ft 2-1): Benfica goes with a weakened defense for this game, Luisao+Lindelof as CB. (Grimaldo and Eliseu still injured). This duo has been conceding some goals on latest games, Luisao seems slow and Lindelof unsynchronized. On the attack i think they are fine, Jonas may return on this match and only Andre Horta is missing. Sporting is under big pressure since they got out of the european competitions midweek and this game is decisive for their hopes to win the league. Their biggest weapons on this match i think will be Gelson and Adrien. Even though history says head-to-head are are tight low scoring matches, in this case I think this match has potential for goals as Sporting is very likely to score to this Benfica defense but I believe Benfica coach should employ an attacking mindset to score more than Sporting.

Adrien Silva to score anytime > 5.95 - lost

Gelson Martins to score anytime > 4.65 - lost

Benfica EH-1 > 3.85 - lost

over 4,5 > 6.55 - lost

BTTS > 1.80 - won

Edited December 13, 2016 by pulsar12

[pulsar12]

Boavista - Guimaraes

Boavista still has 2 major elements suspended (Henrique and Idris), and this team is much weaker without  Idris.  Guimares has Moussa Marega back, the league top scorer and most lethal player on counters.

Guimaraes EH-1 > 3.75 - lost

Guimaraes EH-2 > 8.00 - lost

FT 1-2

Edited December 13, 2016 by pulsar12

[_Ghost_]

My shots ratings/ data for the season so far (does not include Porto v Maritimo from last night)

[pulsar12]

Estoril - Benfica (ft 0-1)

Estoril has sacked their coach "Fabiano" and hired spanish "Pedro Carmona", which is know for his poor results on Betis (as assistant coach, betis was relegated) and also has few knowledge of portuguese league (. This is also his first time as a main coach). He told to the media that he wants to win Benfica and he wants to win all the league games and go to Europa League... he also said that has been working very hard last days to implement his ideas to the players..... well i think he is rushing too fast and overconfident, so I expect a disorganized and unbalanced Estoril team, so Benfica can make a goalfest on this one. Also, Estoril has some important players unavailable

Benfica EH -4 > 8.75

1st half Benfica EH -1  > 3.25

1st half Benfica EH -2  > 7.75

1st half Benfica EH -3  > 15

over 4,5 > 4.25

all lost

Rio Ave - Nacional (ft 2-1)

Nacional turn around last game from 0-2 to win 3-2 against Tondela, but this was pretty much due to Tondela demerit than anything else. Just look at the way how Nacional goals were scored and you see what I mean... Rio Ave shows much better football than Nacional and should win this.

Rio Ave win > 1.86 - won

Moreirense - Arouca (ft 1-4)

Arouca has been improving lately, I hope to see them reach the past season quality soon. Last match home loss against Rio Ave is misleading, Arouca did well on the match.

Arouca win > 3.50 - won 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by pulsar12

[StevieDay1983]

Going to get more active on this topic lads. Here are the fixtures for December 21st - 23rd. What are you thinking? @pulsar12 and @jamiedavies02, your tips so far have been interesting reading. As somebody that has never been overly familiar with the Portuguese league I am keen to learn more.

[_Ghost_]

Nothing from me - Benifca, Pacos & Guimares all take a clean sweep on my ratings but are priced accoringly, there'll be better opportunities to get involved elsewhere over the Christmas period for me

[pulsar12]

Some drama is going on Portuguese football - Referees are under a lot of pressure by the clubs and fans after the losses of Porto and Sporting on last league cup matches. (Benfica was the only one to win). this may have influence on the result of the big club matches this week.

Tondela - Arouca (08-Jan) > FT 1-2

Tondela is fragile team at the moment, since their defeat on Nacional. Playing at home against an effective Arouca, I see potential away team to win and by more than one goal.

Arouca win > 3.00

Arouca EH-1 > 5.35

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by pulsar12

[arsenalfh]

On 12/16/2016, 2:04:54, jamiedavies02 said:

My shots ratings/ data for the season so far (does not include Porto v Maritimo from last night)

Great stuff there. 

Any chance of a key for the headings of the table?