Sir Puntalot

Portugal Primeira/Segunda 2016/17

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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Aposta Ganha, as our apparent resident Portuguese football expert, give us your five fold acca for the Primeira this weekend.

I'm thinking Porto, Moreirense, Sporting CP, Setubal, and Estoril at 23.38 with BetVictor.

Any reasoning about Moreirense, Setubal and Estoril?

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Rio Ave even with their good season last year only took 2 points from the top 3 clubs,with the current injuries too this looks tough for them.Porto slumped to a distant 3rd last season,but do have a strong squad,theyll see plenty of the ball, and with their attacking line up should win. Bet - Porto 4/6 

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15 hours ago, Teodore said:

Any 

Any reasoning about Moreirense, Setubal and Estoril?

I just like the odds. They are still considered favourites at home with the bookies but all over 2.0 so as part of an accumulator I thought it would be worth a punt. I also included Moreirense and Estoril on an accumulator last season with both coming in so a bit of a heart-based decision as well.

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After the big blow defeat last game, I expect Sporting big win today. The reason for the last defeat was mainly due to overconfidence from the coach Jesus after real madrid game and a little fatigue on players.Jesus is good tactically and knows about the game, however all hell break lose when he get overconfident and speaks too much. After it cools down, usually the next game will be very good performance. This cycle repeats over and over again. On the other hand, Estoril didnt show anything special this season so far. Jesus cooled down after the loss and so I expect great performance from the players today. Fancy Sporting to score more than two before HT or/and more than 4 FT.

Any unq HT >8.00 @ betfair

any unq FT & home win >3.90 @ betfair

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Tondela - Pacos Ferreira ( Fri 30 Sep)

Tondela trend mantains as the past season: Lack of character. Most of the time the players dont connect with each other and the defense commit a lot of unforced errors. Last game against Maritimo they lost 2-0 but it could be 5-0 or more. Tondela seem to only play somewhat good if either they face a big club or during bad weather conditions. I recall from the last season, the best results they got it was when at least one of those conditions were present. Anything else, players are too inconsistent and any reasonable odds are value for the other team to win.

weather will be good tomorrow in Tondela city and no major change on both squads.

Ferreira to win >2.6

Edited by pulsar12

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Nacional - Porto

Nacional has been improving on the front. forward Hamzaoui looks with great confidence after comfortable win against Feirense (last match), and the attack has been improving in general. Nacional regular players Victor Garcia (RWB) and  Tiago Rodrigues (Midfield) cannot play because they are on-loan players from Porto. Nuno Campos should replace Vitor Garcia and Aly Ghazal to replace Tiago Rodrigues. Cádiz & Willyan still doubtful because of injury. Porto has the full-squad available. Porto should win this game, but Nacional should score at least one goal because of Porto inconsistent defense.

BTTS > 1.90

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On 9/29/2016, 11:14:32, pulsar12 said:

Tondela - Pacos Ferreira ( Fri 30 Sep)

Tondela trend mantains as the past season: Lack of character. Most of the time the players dont connect with each other and the defense commit a lot of unforced errors. Last game against Maritimo they lost 2-0 but it could be 5-0 or more. Tondela seem to only play somewhat good if either they face a big club or during bad weather conditions. I recall from the last season, the best results they got it was when at least one of those conditions were present. Anything else, players are too inconsistent and any reasonable odds are value for the other team to win.

weather will be good tomorrow in Tondela city and no major change on both squads.

Ferreira to win >2.6

FT 2-1, Tondela did well today and Ferreira appalling. 

Edited by pulsar12

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On 9/30/2016, 1:18:39, pulsar12 said:

Nacional - Porto

Nacional has been improving on the front. forward Hamzaoui looks with great confidence after comfortable win against Feirense (last match), and the attack has been improving in general. Nacional regular players Victor Garcia (RWB) and  Tiago Rodrigues (Midfield) cannot play because they are on-loan players from Porto. Nuno Campos should replace Vitor Garcia and Aly Ghazal to replace Tiago Rodrigues. Cádiz & Willyan still doubtful because of injury. Porto has the full-squad available. Porto should win this game, but Nacional should score at least one goal because of Porto inconsistent defense.

BTTS > 1.90

FT 0-4 pick lost. 

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Today there is a league cup match

Feirense - Tondela (16:00 GMT+1)

Murillo will not play for Tondela and Tiago Silva is doubtful for Feirense. Tondela is confident and motivated by the late win against Pacos de Ferreira, but anyway they can screw up anytime. So, all I am gonna use to justify my pick is Tondela players inconsistent psychological attitude. Feirense is more solid mentally.

Feirense EH -1 > 3.85

 

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3 hours ago, pulsar12 said:

Today there is a league cup match

Feirense - Tondela (16:00 GMT+1)

Murillo will not play for Tondela and Tiago Silva is doubtful for Feirense. Tondela is confident and motivated by the late win against Pacos de Ferreira, but anyway they can screw up anytime. So, all I am gonna use to justify my pick is Tondela players inconsistent psychological attitude. Feirense is more solid mentally.

Feirense EH -1 > 3.85

 

ft 3-0 pick won.

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Portugal cup games coming next week. So far there is a no brainer bet for me:

Sertanense - Tondela (16 oct)

I already talked about Tondela players psych weakness, as always this is the major factor on my bets against them unless proven otherwise in future. Additionally they have 3 players out for this game because of red card punishment(keeper Ricardo Janota and wings Fábio Nunes and Mamadu) Sertanense is playing on a 3rd league championship but they are onfire, with 8 games in row winning and on 1st place of the table.

I believe there are good chances ( i would say 40%) for Sertanense to win this

Sertanense to win >4.80

 

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On 12/10/2016, 10:47:06, pulsar12 said:

Portugal cup games coming next week. So far there is a no brainer bet for me:

Sertanense - Tondela (16 oct)

I already talked about Tondela players psych weakness, as always this is the major factor on my bets against them unless proven otherwise in future. Additionally they have 3 players out for this game because of red card punishment(keeper Ricardo Janota and wings Fábio Nunes and Mamadu) Sertanense is playing on a 3rd league championship but they are onfire, with 8 games in row winning and on 1st place of the table.

I believe there are good chances ( i would say 40%) for Sertanense to win this

Sertanense to win >4.80

 

Interesting tip there @pulsar12. How familiar with Portuguese football are you?

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11 hours ago, pulsar12 said:

I'm portuguese living in portugal :). Since last year I am focusing in depth on our league football. 

That's great news. We will look to update this weekly then if you're happy to keep coming into this area and giving your thoughts.

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On 10/12/2016, 10:47:06, pulsar12 said:

Portugal cup games coming next week. So far there is a no brainer bet for me:

Sertanense - Tondela (16 oct)

I already talked about Tondela players psych weakness, as always this is the major factor on my bets against them unless proven otherwise in future. Additionally they have 3 players out for this game because of red card punishment(keeper Ricardo Janota and wings Fábio Nunes and Mamadu) Sertanense is playing on a 3rd league championship but they are onfire, with 8 games in row winning and on 1st place of the table.

I believe there are good chances ( i would say 40%) for Sertanense to win this

Sertanense to win >4.80

 

lost - FT 0-4 

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Sporting - Tondela (Saturday)

Tomorrow will be light rainy day on Lisbon, which will be good for Tondela fast forwarders Murillo, Moreno, Wagner. Additionally, Tondela players usually put good performances against the big clubs. last season they got a draw here and could have won. Sporting still without Adrien which is very important player for the team coherence. Expect a good performance from Tondela and not so good from Sporting.

X2 > 4.5 

Tondela win > 16.0

Belenenses - Benfica (Sunday)

Belenenses facing internal issues recently involving the previous coach, the management and a player named Sturgeon, which is one of the best Belenenses players in my opinion. The previous coach decided to leave the club 2 weeks ago (prior to 1-0 to win against Boavista and then 2-0 loss against poor Académica from 2nd league, already under the command of new coach Quim Machado). The fans are not happy with the management decisions always cycling the club with many coaches on the last seasons due to internal conflict. By the way, the previous coach ( Velazquez ) was doing very good with the club and one of the reasons for the breakup was a recent issue with player Sturgeon (Management wanted to punish this player because of lack of focus on the club but the coach was not in agreement). 

Belenenses probably without Miguel Rosa (important player) and Vítor Gomes both due to injury.

Benfica still without important players (Jonas, Horta, Almeida, Rafa), nevertheless I expect them to win comfortably.

Benfica EH -2 > 3.95

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League Cup

Paços Ferreira and Nacional are to play the access phase League Cup groups (2nd round). The history of games between the two clubs favors the National in seven games, lost one, drawn three and won three others.
The last game between the two teams was four days ago, and there was a tie to a ball.
The Paços Ferreira wants to enjoy the home advantage to reach the group stage of this competition. In the last five home games have 2 losses, 2 draws and a win. One of the weaknesses of the team is its defense, have conceded goals in seven of their last ten. Turn your attack also makes a lot of goals. (Twelve goals in eight league days)
The National playing out of doors is a more vulnerable team, since in the last ten games, lost seven, drawn one and won two (one for the Cup of Portugal, against a CNS club). His defense suffers enough goals in ten conceded in eight of them.
Most likely for this game is to defeat the National, although the last away game was against Paços Ferreira and there was a tie to a goal, I think the Hall has more staff and men who can unbalance the game as Pedrinho Ricardo Valente or Welthon up front.

Pacos Ferreira to win

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Nacional - Sporting Lisbon

The history between these 2 teams, cleary favors Sporting. In the last 7 years, visitors won 4 and draw 3. Last season Sporting win 0-4 agaisnt Nacional. The home team as a poor record at home this season with only 1 win and 4 losses, in my opinion because they have some defensive problems in there game.
On the other hand, Sporting regulary score at least 1 goal in the last 8 league matches. For more they can not afford to lose more points and let escape benfica and Porto (who are playing next round) to fight for the portuguese tittle.

Pick: Sporting (-1) 
Stake: 6/10 Odds: 2.18 Bookmaker: Redbet

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