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Monthly Naps Competition, Sunday 1st May 2016


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Sals 3.50 - Jufn - win at 4/1 bog betvictor

3yo handicap over around 10F.........

We've got a favourite here from the Stoute yard, Mainstream, who won a maiden last backend and now steps into handicaps. It's the profile of a horse that will usually go off at a short price and obviously they sometimes win, but they quite often don't ! The form of the maiden race won by this one didn't work out particularly well and his price is based on the trainer not on what he acheived.

I'll take him on with a horse who has already had a run this season.....in what is usually a hot handicap at the Craven meeting. He finished 4th and runs off the same mark today. That was a better race and he drops in class today. The Post reported that he didn't seem suited by the soft ground and got unbalanced running downhill into the dip. Salisbury is a bit more conventional with a rising finish and the ground should be better

With that run under his belt I'll take him to prove too good for the Stoute horse

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3.40 NEWMARKET : Minding @ 11/8 win thanks 

Minding.......from A P O´Brien yard the 3yo not ran for 205 days which was here over this distance on good to soft ground where under Ryan Moore she took lead well over 1f out, readily went clear under hands and heels riding 1f out to run on strongly and easily beat Nathra by 4.5 lengths

The same due meet again today in race but Minding has been improving in the five races she's had increasing the distance from 6f, 7f, and 8f so far winning 3 times and two 2nds, Ryan takes ride again for only 2nd time on horse

good luck all

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2.45 Hamilton - Aramist - 8/1 - Coral

I actually looked at this last night and backed it at 16/1 but have evidently missed the price for comp purposes with it being backed into 8/1 best price. Aramist has 4 wins from 4 visits to Hamilton. His last win came off a mark of 89 and he gets in here off 88. By stark contrast the favourite Mirsaale has gone up a total 23lbs for his last 2 wins so can be opposed. 

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3.40 NEWMARKET

MINDING @ 6/4 Paddy Power

Not the most original selection but the failure of Air Force yesterday means this one has drifted to an attractive price. Has already beat the third and fourth favourites and has won over CD. The second fav has plenty to prove over this trip and the Johnston horse of a similar profile ran poorly yesterday. This one looks to handle any surface and looks a worthy fav.
 

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3.40 Newmarket - 1000 Guineas: Alice Springs @ 18/1 Bet365

Minding looks hard to beat on last years form but we've seen yesterday this might count for little. I prefer stable mate Alice Springs. She is the least fancied of Aiden’s, though I like her allot! She was busy in the second half of 2015, a bit an unlucky runner-up in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf but clearly talented, scopey frame and there wasn’t much wrong with her return earlier this month; a fair third at Leopardstown in a Guineas trial. In fact it looked a lovely pipe opener in my eyes. That day, on bottomless ground, it was difficult to make up ground from behind so the bird was flown early on but Alice Springs stayed on nicely. The mile trip doesn’t pose any concern, but the good ground is something she’ll definitely like.

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3.40 Newmarket - Mix And Mingle e/w @ 50/1 Betway

Mix And Mingle looks overpriced at 50s I think. Has a lot to find on paper but the trainer's runners tend to improve a ton for the run and she progressed again to finish 4th in the Nell Gywn. The ground would have been too soft for her as well so the better ground and step up to a mile should all bring improvement. With so much scope to improve from her last run and I can't let her go unbacked at the prices.

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17 hours ago, Trotter said:

Sals 3.50 - Jufn - win at 4/1 bog betvictor

 

Non runner

I'll quickly pluck another one out................

Ham 4.30 - Euchen Glen - win at 9/2 bog wm hill

Maiden race for older horses over a mile

My selection has only had the one outing but it was a promising one on debut last season finishing 2nd in a conditions race with 80s rated horses in front and behind him

Makes his seasonal debut today so fitness has to be taken on trust but the yard have had a couple of winners in the last 2 days and Goldie likes to win races in Scotland

 

 

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