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Monthly Naps Comp Tuesday 24th November


chris34

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2.40 Southwell

Appleby runs three in this and on jockey bookings Kelly’s Finest looks first string on her first run for this yard. She will no doubt pop up at some point around here knowing this yard however first time cheekpieces need to have a big effect to be winning given what she has shown thus far, remains a frustrating maiden.

Northside Prince has been well below his best for some time now but if recapturing his best form he is so well handicapped and although not won here has run well here.

Lexington Bay is a useful sort however he has been off the track since May and has just a fair record flat, but record here is eye catching 3 wins and 4 placed efforts from 9 starts likely to be thereabouts again.

That said Frosty Berry looks the one they all have to beat having won in impressive style on debut for this yard at Redcar over 2f further in first time hood, a 6lb rise still leaves her looking potentially well treated. Yet to try this surface but her liking for soft ground should stand her in good stead.

 

1pt win Frosty Berry 9/2 PP

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12.10 Southwell: Class 6 Amateur Handicap, 1m

Two horses caught my eye on the Southwell sand recently. One is Roger Thorpe who was unlucky to bump into a seriously well handicapped horse the other day. He has a big shout today, though the jockey and the draw are slight concerns.

For a much bigger price I feel Schottische is interesting. She was quite unlucky two starts back here at Southwell when she travelled strongly but got badly hampered approaching the home turn when coming with a huge run, only to get checked moments later yet again.

It was impressive how she stuck to the task and finished as close as did. I didn't pay attention when she popped up at Lingfield subsequently. 10f is too far form her. Back at Southwell now she's really interesting, back over 1m and 2lb below her last winning mark which came over course and distance earlier this year. 

Schottische @ 16/1 bet365

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300 Lingfield: Rocky Bender 9/2 bet365/Skybet

Venetia Williams has two runners at Lingfield today and Rocky Bender looks the best of the two to me. Only won once under rules off a mark of 105 on heavy ground. Well today is back on 105 and as per usual Lingers is very wet so all boxes ticked so far.

Aidan Coleman rides today (only ridden the horse twice before) so thats a bonus and the opposition all seem to have slight doubts about them so the 9/2 looks tasty enough.

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Sedge 2.50 - Urban Gale - win at 5/1 bog wm hill

Marathon handicap chase over 26F, soft ground, class 5

These Class 5 handicaps over jumps tend to be poor (there doesn't appear to be any class 6 or class7 handicaps over jumps to class 5 seems to be the bottom grade)

My horse has won 2 of his last 3, is a CD winner, best on soft and is a thorough stayer

His two recent wins have seen him go up 10lbs in the weights so a win today would represent a career high in handicapping terms but he's obviously in good form and has conditions to suit

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Southwell 1:40 - Ryan The Giant

2yo who has shown nothing previously. However, he is now dropping down in distance from 1m2f to 7f, has a capable claimer riding and is contesting a claiming race. Trainer, Richard Hannon has won 6 of 25 such contests this year and also maintains that strike rate in 2yo claimers. Coupled with the fact that Ryan The Giant was also entered into a further race in the coming days (now removed), I think this makes a very attractive speculative bet.

14/1 win Paddypower

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1.40 Southwell - Frivolous Lady win @ 100/30 Bet365 

Won a maiden at 50s lto. That race has worked out well. She had 3 next time out winners and multiple 80+ rated horses in behind. She looks well in at the weights here and even though she has a break to overcome i feel she's capable of doing so as this doesn't look a particularly strong claimer.

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