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Weekly Naps Competition, Day 6, Friday 18th September 2015


btugero

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Ayr 4.15 - Excessable - EW at 20/1 bog bet365 Listed 5F for 2yo My selection looked pretty useful on his first two starts, winning a maiden first time out then running 2nd to a multiple winner next time Went off as Favourite for the big Newbury Super Sprint and was a bit disappointing to finish 5th beaten 3L. That's still probably quite strong form, He went into the lead in the final furlong but was overtaken by horses coming from behind Last time was tried at 6F on soft ground .......he was drawn on the wrong side and didn't stay so a line can be drawn under that race The worry is that he'll go off too fast as at Newbury and get swamped late on but if he could be held up a bit he might be good enough

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3.05 Ayr: Fast Shot 22/1 BetVictor This horse was 5th in the Ayr Gold Cup off a mark of 96 just twelve months ago and now finds himself in the Bronze version running off 84. A fair 9th last time at Ripon only beaten 21/2 lengths and 4th in his group. We can ignore the two previous starts when bogged down in the mud at Hamilton and failed to stay 7f before that. Must be overpriced at around 20/1?

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3.40 AYR NOBLE ASSET @ 16/1 Betvictor Won this last year off 7lb lower from a similar draw. Has progressed since and has put up a number of decent efforts off marks between 81 and 85. Last time was really unlucky off 1lb higher when hampered whilst carrying every chance. Trainer has a good record with his 3yo+ horses at this time of year and won a race here yesterday. Looks to have a great chance here at 16/1.

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3.40 - Ayr - Luis Vaz De Torres - 25/1 - BetVic BOG Unexposed and toward the bottom of the weights from Richard Fahey stable. Has only raced over 5f on good ground once which resulted in his only win so far to date. Has disappointed since but the two races since his win have been over further trips. Tony Hamilton on board who was the jock for his only win.

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4.55 Listowel: 2m 4f Chase I can see why lightly raced Devils Bridge is a very popular horse here - it could well be the case that he can improve enough to be competitive with the top weight Texas Jack, who is obviously the class act in the field. However, as it has been the case in the last days, the ground will have something to say again.This young Devils Bridge has shown all his best form on quick ground - while Listowel dried out a bit, it is still soft today - so completely alien to him. I'm more inclined to give proven class another chance. Texas Jack was disappointing in all his recent starts, but you can make excused for him. Either the ground wasn't soft enough, or the trip to far. However 2m 4f on soft ground represents exactly the kind of test he wants. So if this multiple Grade 2 winner runs to his best form today, he'll be certainly hard to beat in my mind.So 5/1 looks rather on the generous side. Texas Jack @ 5/1 William Hill

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A3.40 Megaleka 33/1 William Hill Alan Bailey has just had the winner of the 3.05 which was just his 2nd winner from 70 runners this season and some of his horses might start to look well handicapped if he's coming into form. Ths horse is drawn in the middle (as was his 3.05 winnner) and the horse is a c&d winner. The horse race off its lowest mark in about 20 races here and given the c&d win and last winning mark of 84 (races off 78 today), could be overpriced.

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