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Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015

trapper74

By trapper74
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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DanV89

DanV89

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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 3.50 - Ludlow - Topthorn - 6/1 - Paddy Power BOG The only C&D winner in the race, Topthorn is in good form coming here on the back of a 10 length win on Boxing Day and has won here at Ludlow twice already. He is up 7lb for that win but there is a 7lb claimer up to compensate for the rise. Incidently the horses last 2 victories have come with this jockey on board so the pair seem to get on.

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Dund0n

Dund0n

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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 3.10 Wolverhampton - Colombia win @ 5/1 Betfred Colombia ran a nice race to finish a 3 length 4th last time out on handicap debut over course and distance. She was behind Swendab who has won a race since and she was behind Lazy Sioux who runs in the first today. If Lazy Sioux can win it will only boost Colombia's form and as there isn't a lot of good recent form in this race it would be a boost to Colombia's chances here. She races off of the same mark today so a repeat of the run would see her go close for a trainer that has been doing well with only a handful of runners over the past few months.

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BillyHills

BillyHills

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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 1.45 Ludlow: Cape Caster 5/2 bet365 Cracking opening hurdle at ludlow with three or four novices having decent form. I think the betting is lob sided due to Ferguson having a runner and i reckon Cape Caster should be heading the betting on form. Cape Caster is well regarded and won at Ffos Las on his debut in some style beating Eddiemaurice who is now a NR today but went on to run ok in a much higher grade than this next time. Evan Williams is a Ludlow specialist and knows what it takes to win here and all in all is the best option for me at the prices. Arabian Revolution won easily at Sundown but didn't beat much, he was ridden by AP that day and its interesting to note that he and Jonjo take him on here, that suggest to me that they think he can be beaten with the penalty?? AP rides Sebastian Beach and has to be respected now the yard are running better and you can upgrade his debut run slightly.

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Boulder5111

Boulder5111

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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 L3.20 Aristocracy 1pt win 9/1 Betvictor I've no problem backing the form pick in amateur riders races as long as one of the better jockeys gets the ride and that's the case here. Trainer Andy Turnell historically does well in these races and seems to target them so this last time out winner can defy the rise in the handicap and go in again with conditions to suit.

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Trotter

Trotter

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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 1.45 Ludlow - Dexcite - EW at 22/1 bog PP Juvenile hurdle Looking for one at a bigger price that might gatecrash the top 3 in the betting......(agree with BH above that Cape Caster looks pretty solid even with his penalty but the other two market leaders have doubts around them. Arabian revolution won a weak race to earn a penalty and Jonjo's horse might not be suited by the soft ground) My selection ran in what appears to be quite a decent race at Kempton and although he was beaten 21L he did pull hard and then weaken late on. If he can be settled he should run a lot better. That looked a good race with Henderson and Nicholls horses finishing 1st and 2nd and the 4th ran well at Cheltenham on Saturday behind the Triumph favourite, Peace and Co.

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robertob

robertob

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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 15.40 Wolverhampton: Smalljohn @ 10/1 VC Smalljohn didn't look exactly like going back to the winning ways in recent starts, though he wasn't far beaten the last twice and seems to regain form. Dropping another 2lb in the mark, he is now as low as he hasn't been for five years, and since then he has always won off higher marks. Obviously he is not getting any younger and probably his true merit lies around a mark off 60-66 these days. But rated 63 at the moment, with a decent apprentice in the saddle and the drawn in box 1, he should have ideal conditions to adopt his front-running tactics. There aren't any excuses today and I expect him to outrun his price tag.

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Rainbow

Rainbow

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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 1.45 ludlow beltor is an interesting runner today, and one that looks worth a bet at the prices. not had much racing and interesting that he goes over hurdles now. showed decent form on the flat and this trip and ground could be ideal if he jumps fluently enough on hurdling debut, which with being from the robert stephens yard, im sure hell have been schooled well. the principals in the race do set a decent standard, buti feel beltor could easily match that standard and maybe a bit better. time will tell but at the prices today im willing to take the chance. 0.5pts ew 25/1 bet victor bog

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Smarty72

Smarty72

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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 26th January 2015 14.30 Plumpton - Class 4 Novice Chase Handicap - 2m 1f - Going Heavy All stats are from Racing Post and based on last 5 years. Aftifice Sivola (Fr) - 5yo trained by Lucy Wadham with Leighton Aspell in the saddle. Trainer yet to have a chase winner at this course and jockey has had just 3 winners from 32 chase runners. Aftifice Sivola makes his chase debut but has had 7 hurdles runs (5 UK and 2 France) and 2 NHF runs in France. Runs today off hurdle mark of 94. Has raced at distances from 2m to 3m over hurdles with best 2 performances when 2nd at Fakenham with RPR of 88 over 2m 4f on good ground and 3rd at Market Rasen with RPR of 84 over 2m 3f also on good ground. No evidence to suggest suitable to heavy ground and that will be suited by this distance. Not one to consider today. Bobbits Way - 10yo trained by Alan Jones with Tom Scudamore in the saddle. Trainer yet to have a chase winner from 8 chase runners but Jockey Tom Scudamore has a very good strike rate with chasers at the track 42% with 10 winners from 24 runners. Bobbits Way has plenty of chase experience with 13 runs but yet to win with 2 2nd places and 3 3rd places in chases. Has had 6 chase runs here so plenty of experience at the track with his best performance her last time on heavy ground over todays distance with a RPR of 91. Runs today of OR 86. Performs on heavy ground, good experience at the course and best performances at around this distance. Tom Scudamore a big plus in the sadddle for this type of race. One to consider but yet to win after 13 chase runs. Graphical - 6yo trained by Alison Batchelor ridden by Joshua Moore. Trainer has 1 chase winner from 9 chase runners and the jockey Joshua Moore has a great chase record at the track with 7 winners from 20 runners for a strike rate of 35%. Trainer Jockey combination has 50% strike Rate with 2 winners from 4 chase runners. Lightly raced with 1 PTP and 3 hurdles runs. Decent performance in Debut PTP when 2nd over 3 miles on heavy ground in Ireland but shown nothing in his 3 hurdles runs in the UK. As a result gets a hurdle mark OR 83. Tailed off or Weakened in his 3 hurdles runs which were all around the 2m 4f distance. Should take to chasing based on 1 run in PTP but ground and distance have big question marks about it (No evidence to suggest best ground and distance). Good trainer/Jockey Combination and Jockey a big plus at this course. Not One to consider today bit worth watching for future pointers. Home For Tea - 6yo trained by Tom Symonds ridden by Felix De Giles. Trainer has had no winners of chases at this track from just 2 runners but Jockey has had 4 chase winners from 10 chase runners (40% SR). 5 chase runs with 2 2nds and 1 3rd. Best chase performance was when 2nd at Fontwell on heavy ground over 2m 2f with RPR of 101. Runs today of OR 92. Already looks a better chaser than hurdler but that's because he was very poor at hurdling. Distance looks fine and should be OK with the ground and Jockey a big plus in the saddle. One to Consider base on 2 previous Fontwell chase runs bit latest 2 runs in December were poor. Missionaire - 8yo trained by Tony Carroll ridden by Lee Edwards. Trainer not had a chase runner at the track and jockey just one run over fences at the track. 6 previous chase runs with a 2nd at Huntingdon over 2m 1/2f on Good to Soft ground but 10 lengths behind the winner and 3rd at Towchester on Good to Soft behind decent stable mate Le Bacardy. Races today of OR 86 which should give him a chance today. Distance looks fine bit may prefer better ground but been given a chance by the handicapper been dropped 4lb since last run. One to Consider but jockey has only had one chase runner at the track. Noble Friend - 7yo trained by Chris Gordon and ridden by Tom Cannon. Trainer has a good record at track with 5 chase winners from 27 chase runners (SR 19%) and Jockey has had 8 chase winners from 55 chase runners. Noble Friend has had just one chase run last May at Wincanton when a long way behind on good ground. Hurdles form is the strongest of all the runners today but looks better suited to good ground. However latest hurdles run was here on soft when just under a length behind the winner over 2 miles. Distance is fine but best performances on good ground. Have to take on trust that he can jump fences but if he can reproduce hurdles form over these fences will be a contender. Not for me today off top weight on heavy ground. Both trainer and jockey have good chase course form. The Right Time - 7yo trained by Tony Carroll and ridden by Trevor Whelan. Looks to be stable 2nd string and trainer has not had a chase runner at the track while jockey has had 1 chase winner from 11 chase runners. Debut chase run today but 11 hurdles runs in the past and yet to win. A couple of reasonable performances over hurdles but would probably need to run better than that on debut to have a chance today. No concerns about distance but needs to prove can jump a fence with his previous chase run best ignored! May just struggle on heavy ground today. Not one for me today. Verdict Shortlist of 3 to consider Bobbits Way, Home for Tea and Missionaire. Missionaire been given chance by handicapper but ground and jockey rule this one out for me. Bobbits Way best suited by todays conditions and has a good jockey on board who does well on board chasers at this track. But 10yo unlikely to show much improvement after 13 chase runs. Home For Tea just edges it for me with potential to improve as only a 6yo. Distance, ground and Jockey all positives. 1 Pt Win @ Home For Tea @ 7\2 Bet365 BOG

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