Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third

[Mindfulness]

First of all I should mention that I only bet on the asian handicap market but this thread could apply to 1X2 and possibly other soccer markets aswell. Personally I find betting in the final third of a football league campaign the most difficult. Once we’re into the month of March my betting frequency drops off completely and I effectively shutdown for the campaign. There are two main reasons for this: 1. Difficulty in assessing the relative fitness levels between any two sides. 2. Difficulty in assessing a teams psychology and motivation when a clear objective (title, european places, relegation battle) has effectively dissolved. Common sense suggests that pricing errors occur for the entire duration of a football season and so I believe there are decent betting opportunities to be had in the last third of any given campaign. The crucial thing for me is acknowledging that additional information needs to be factored in when considering bets in the last third of a season. I have started this thread in an attempt to figure out what form that additional information may take and how it can be applied to the decision making process. I’m really open to all suggestions and ideas here, whether it’s brainstorming or detailed analysis, I welcome all discussion on the subject. I will start with a couple of my own observations: Example 1: EPL 2013/2014 Looking at the English Premier League in 2013/2014 from a betting perspective, two of the most lucrative teams in the last third of the campaign would have been Stoke City and Crystal Palace. Stoke suffered only 2 league defeats from March onwards while Palace only suffered 3. The two sides were among the premier leagues most physically robust and industrious. Both sides made important additions in the January transfer window: Odemwingie for Stoke, Ledley and Ince for Crystal Palace. Aswell as both teams possessing a core of players that were physically strong and good in the air, both teams had pace and skill in wide areas that could stretch opposition teams and catch them out if they were tired. Both teams continually had very strong support from their respective home crowds – the twelfth man. As an interesting footnote both teams started their strong final third runs with confidence boosting home victories over strong opposition: Stoke beating Arsenal 1-0 on March 1^st, Palace beating Chelsea 1-0 on March 29^th. The characteristic parallels between the two teams are too numerous to be coincidental in my view. As I am writing this I am reminded of Varese’s Serie B playoff exploits of 2011/2012. They were a team of much smaller resources than their fellow promotion contenders but they defied the odds to make the 2011/2012 Serie B playoff final after performing well in the final third of the campaign. Varese were a strong and physically robust team, they played a 4-4-2 with classic wingers who were fast and direct. Coaching? Generally speaking I believe there is a noticeable variation in the effectiveness of individual coaches/managers fitness and endurance programmes. One possible avenue of inquiry could be to try and isolate the good fitness managers from the bad ones. The first name I will throw into the hat is Tony Pulis – he is really excellent when it comes to fitness and endurance programmes, we should expect any team he manages to have good physicality and fitness levels. Let’s see if we can find some more… Anyways I look forward to hearing other peoples thoughts and views on final third betting and hopefully we can continue to improve our profit margins as a result.

[Matthew]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Hi Das Phantom, An interesting train of thought. I find that my approaches in the year don't tend to drop off and I bet to the end of the season. I find the bookmakers adjust what they offer dramatically to account for public perception and team desperation to achieve a given result. You often see much longer odds on the better team just based on the fact they don't need the result and their opposition do. I'd factor in professionalism to your assessment, which may go hand in hand with fitness and endurance as a manager who focuses on those is probably more professional and demands a professional response from their players. Some managers won't do favours. Nor will they accept sub par performance just because a team is safe from relegation or having already secured a champions league/europa league place. What is it about your current betting that doesn't work in the final third? Why do your metrics start to not work at this time? Of course, this all needs to be quantified and assessed to understand the usefulness of any metric over many seasons/leagues. Do you have such metrics that show how your current betting doesn't work from March onwards?

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third

What is it about your current betting that doesn't work in the final third? Why do your metrics start to not work at this time? Of course, this all needs to be quantified and assessed to understand the usefulness of any metric over many seasons/leagues. Do you have such metrics that show how your current betting doesn't work from March onwards?

I don't and the lack of data I have for final thirds is a big problem. Basically I shutdown in March and stop betting altogether because of the fear I hold for 'silly season'. As I've become more experienced in the field of soccer betting I've realised this fear is almost certainly preventing me from capitalising on opportunities in the last third of campaigns as clearly there are still pricing errors in this zone. The thing is, my fear is based on a legitimate premise - additional information needs to factored in to the decision making process when betting in the final third.

[Matthew]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third How do you know it is a legitimate premise if you cannot quantify it?

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third

How do you know it is a legitimate premise if you cannot quantify it?

Basically I understand what you're getting at because you're saying I have no first-hand empirical results data to suggest that the normal factors I use to make decisions are insufficient in the final third of a season. Let me just quickly talk about my normal decision making process. I would say that I am an open minded bettor that believes all information is useful when weighing up a decision, but for me personally, tactical and strategic information is normally central to the process. Ofcourse there are many other factors to consider and a good holisitic knowledge of football is important, the more experience you have in betting, the better your holistic knowledge and feel for the game becomes. Based on everything I've learnt about football betting I believe that the two main factors I've mentioned at the start of this thread are particularly important in the final third. Ofcourse I am beginning to formulate my own ideas on how to deal with these additional factors but there many different approaches and possibilities that you could go with whether it be technical knowledge, statistical data, voodoo etc. I need the input and experience of others on this one and I think this thread has the potential to be quite interesting as a result. For me personally, I believe that the current level of knowledge and information I have on soccer betting is not quite sufficient to bet with confidence in the final third of a campaign. That is why I want to hear from fellow soccer punters on this subject as I feel an open dialogue would be really helpful and interesting to me and others.

[footysystems]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Wow Das some weird thought chain IMO, i basically bet on numbers and found this not the case but we look at my results from past seasons...

[Darran]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third I would say that you need to keep a look out for any teams that start playing like they are on holiday already and as soon as they show that it is worth taking them on. I also find that bookies always make teams fighting for relegation shorter than they should be. Yes they have something to play for, but usually the team is down there for a reason and you can often get great value on their opposition.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third

I find the bookmakers adjust what they offer dramatically to account for public perception and team desperation to achieve a given result. You often see much longer odds on the better team just based on the fact they don't need the result and their opposition do.

I also find that bookies always make teams fighting for relegation shorter than they should be. Yes they have something to play for' date=' but usually the team is down there for a reason and you can often get great value on their opposition.[/quote'] Thanks guys, this is interesting.

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Interesting points. If we are looking for more teams that are physically robust in other divisions, I would put Stevenage forward in League 2. Interestingly, they are a team that i have noticed consistently demonstrate improved results as the season progresses under Westley. The exception would be last year but he came back into the club late in the season. Westley certainly used to train his players on a full time basis, unlike most other clubs where they just train mornings.

[azzurini1976]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Read over your thoughts and the input that was shared by other members. I dont know if I agree or disagree, but I did come to conclusion that I simply dont look at the last third of the season on same way or better said, I dont take into account the whole segment of factors that you do when it comes to betting. Personally I dont change my betting pattern over the season, but on other hand, I can split the season similarly as you split a book, sadly I can not say the correct words (due to language barrier) in English, but to make it simple for me seasons has 3 chapters and each of the chapters needs to have adittional information / knowledge included to make clear picture to myself Begining of the season (rounds 1-6): Included is knowledge gathered from transfer window and displays in preparation period, coach changes and all other »off the pitch« factors. Also detalied knowledge on teams and subjective rankings should bet aken into account in those rounds. I still believe first rounds of the season offer most value as books usually set the prices on previous seasons. Season (rounds 7-30): On pitch performances, injuries, number of matches, EL matches should be added to previiously made rankings. At that point you also know how the team plays, which tactics will they use, know coaches mentality in home/away games, know which opposittion tactics will suit them and which not. Rankings are still important but whole bunch of new information is added to get the clearer picture. End of season (rounds 31-38): Motivational factor should be invloved along with all factors in »chapter 2«. You can easily see if team is already on vacation or not who needs points. So this is added to the analyse of the game. but of course there are still teams that dont follow the pattern of »already playing for nothing and hence playing like crap«, you will remember Grosseto from their relegation season, they were still playing good football despite already down, on other hand, Sampdoria has gone in off mode in two seasons in a row (under 2 different coaches) when they secured another season in Serie A. With that being said (I surely forgot lots of things that influence my judgement on making own prices and seeking bets, while I also can admit, that learning in betting is constant process) I dont see fitness levels (maybe I do but are included in the »on pitch performances« as a crucial factor, whereas psychology is a factor, but can not be used only in last part of the season. Hope I made sense with that.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Thanks azzurini, yes that all makes perfect sense to me. I can totally see the logic of splitting the season into 3 chapters/sections and it's great to get an insight on the process you go through. Personally I also find the opening section of a season has the biggest pricing errors as markets struggle to evaluate all the new information which has accrued during the off season. I find the edge you get from this tends to lessen once we get into October after the second international break. There are still plenty of opportunities after this point but I agree that deeper knowledge is required to uncover price errors and that's why I tend to specialise in just 2 or 3 soccer leagues. Once injuries and suspensions start to bite around November time this tends to open things up again in terms of opportunities. I agree that analysing fitness levels in the final third can stem from watching on the pitch performances but I believe the physical attributes of a teams playing staff and perhaps even some tactical elements can be considered for potential fitness defecits between teams. As I posted earlier teams with strong and organised defences that have fast and direct wingers may have a natural advantage in the final third of campaigns. Food for thought and lots of things to think about already, let's keep going with this guys!

[meatman]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Das Phantom you are right here. I do exactly the same, shutdown betting from mainstream European leagues at the end of March. My results in April and May are always historically worse. The reasons are pretty much what has been mentioned in this thread. There are all sorts of weird factors going around, motivation, fitness, silly prices. You can sometimes overthink things too much and predict stuff that is nearly impossible to predict. What I do now is follow MLS and Norwegian Tippeligaen because those leagues are just starting to get going around that time of year and enter their lucrative stage. The best time to bet on any league is from about rounds 6-25, or roughly 15-60% through each respective season. The first 5 or 6 rounds in my experience can either be incredibly lucrative or incredibly dangerous, depending how good your pre season analysis of teams is. The last 20% of a campaign can be a nightmare, it really can so just avoid.

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third I actually find the end of the season the easiest. There are a limited number of teams still involved in trying to achieve something and they are often on TV (promotion and relegation, playoffs, quarter and semi finals of cups etc), making it much easier to get repeated looks at sides which builds on the knowledge and opinion you have formed over the course of the year. Maybe thats because I spread myself too thin the rest of the year though?

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third

Das Phantom you are right here. I do exactly the same, shutdown betting from mainstream European leagues at the end of March. My results in April and May are always historically worse. The reasons are pretty much what has been mentioned in this thread. There are all sorts of weird factors going around, motivation, fitness, silly prices. You can sometimes overthink things too much and predict stuff that is nearly impossible to predict. What I do now is follow MLS and Norwegian Tippeligaen because those leagues are just starting to get going around that time of year and enter their lucrative stage. The best time to bet on any league is from about rounds 6-25, or roughly 15-60% through each respective season. The first 5 or 6 rounds in my experience can either be incredibly lucrative or incredibly dangerous, depending how good your pre season analysis of teams is. The last 20% of a campaign can be a nightmare, it really can so just avoid.

Thanks meatman, it's interesting that your strategy to compensate for that final stretch is to bet on other leagues, it's a good solution in my view although it's a strategy that would take time to implement from scratch (so much new information to learn!!!). Generally speaking I think it's good to be prepared to bet on new leagues/competitions because you never know when opportunities might dry up in the league you currently operate in + you can maximise your returns this way as you have done. I'm glad I'm not alone in thinking that decision making factors are more complex and harder to quantify in the final third but I still believe it is something that can be treated and overcome in a direct way - the trouble is it will probably affect my profits to gain the experience and understanding required. That in itself is a tough decision that needs to be weighed up.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third

Maybe thats because I spread myself too thin the rest of the year though?

I prefer to concentrate my knowledge on just 2 or 3 domestic leagues and watch as much football in those leagues as possible throughout the entire season. First hand knowledge is the best kind of knowledge and the more you get the better.

[allthethings]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third I don't know why more people don't just load the results of the past two, three, five or six years into a spreadsheet and see what actually does happen as the season goes on. It's very enlightening. For somebody like me, who's always looking for dogs to play, the end of the season is great. So is the first four weeks after the winter break...players have moved around in the transfer window, there is rust, there is bad weather. There are a lot of opportunities then. End of season is not as good, but there are some good, usually lower leagues where the sides that need to win to promote fail repeatedly. That is not so in the premier leagues so much...very often you'll see a two-team race between, say, Barca and Real, or Man U and Chelsea, where both need to keep winning, and both do. There are also teams that have promoted with two or three matches to go where you can find real value in the odds. Or even when teams have relegated and all of a sudden win when it no longer matters. As always, the point isn't so much the teams involved as the odds. The public loves favorites, is always collectively looking for a "banker" at 1.6, and late in the season you see tremendous value in such matches. The promotion playoffs are great in that regard...all the sides are good, and yet matches are priced up as if being the third-place team against the sixth-place team is a mismatch. Everybody overvalues teams that "need to win." I've been generalizing here, because not all leagues get similar results. How do you choose which leagues offer value? You don't have to guess. You just have to go back and count. I've counted up six or seven years of data in a bunch of leagues where there's no early-season, mid-winter or end-of-season bias...those I've discarded. When I find marked differences in the performances of underdogs as the season progresses, I put my emphasis there. See you in January in the Eredivisie.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Appreciate your input allthethings!

Everybody overvalues teams that "need to win."

Looks like we're starting to get a consensus on this.

[allthethings]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third

Begining of the season (rounds 1-6): Season (rounds 7-30): End of season (rounds 31-38):

In the leagues where I have found significant changes through the season in the performance of underdogs -- which, when you think about it, could be stated as "the performance of bettors" -- it breaks down more like this (making up the round numbers as I go): Round 1-2: Interestingly, the bettors do a pretty good job of reading the teams in the preseason and the first two weeks. There isn't a lot of information, but the only overreaction you see has to do with some new signing that is going to change a team's fortunes. When dogs take something from matches, it is more often draws than outright wins. Rounds 3-10: There tend to be more upsets here, I think because bettors overreact to what they've seen initially. Rounds 11-18: As the season progresses, finding underdogs is harder because the seasons of teams diverge...there are teams that underperform horribly, fire their manager, realize they need help in the transfer window, and limp along hoping they're not buried before they can make a decent signing. Rounds 19-24: Post-transfer, many upsets...outright wins, but also lots of draws as scoring tends to drop in the winter. Rounds 25-32: Things stabilize again, although not as much as in the fall because some teams really have righted the ship with help from new players. Rounds 33-end: Or whatever you're calling the silly season. If you graphed it, the favorites' results would look in aggregate like two shallow bell curves.

[MPLouis]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third I'm not sure about the final third, but I like betting in the final weeks of a season when I feel there are often end of season value opportunities - 2-way contests between two sides both needing something (can provide late in-play value on goals) Matches between a side needing something and one not needing anything which can provide value either way (sometimes hard to judge which though) Betting against a side which has already won the league/promotion and 'eases off' In all these, I think it's important to try to see any value before others do

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Interesting article from Pinnacle: https://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-influential-is-motivation-towards-the-end-of-a-soccer-season

[Mindfulness]

Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third

Personally I also find the opening section of a season has the biggest pricing errors as markets struggle to evaluate all the new information which has accrued during the off season. I find the edge you get from this tends to lessen once we get into October after the second international break. There are still plenty of opportunities after this point but I agree that deeper knowledge is required to uncover price errors and that's why I tend to specialise in just 2 or 3 soccer leagues. Once injuries and suspensions start to bite around November time this tends to open things up again in terms of opportunities.

This article from Sky states the EPL had the most injuries during November and January with 70 and 69 respectively, the temperature supposedly being a factor: http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11667/9875110/man-utd-clocked-39-injuries-in-201415-season