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Everything posted by azzurini1976

  1. Telles, Medel and Kondogbia out for Inter due to bans in last match. It should be interesting to see differentiated Inter side against Sampdoria. Already some ideas for the weekend, but lot will depend on CL and EL matches that will be played, but really like the "over" odds in Frosinone - Lazio game as both teams will not settle for a draw and for sure with both coaches prefering the 4-3-3 formation + again missings in Lazio back line this is added value for the bet. Also Empoli - Frosinone again showed that Frosinone can play open football but are also vulnerable in defence. Empoli should have scored at least two more.
  2. It is a crime that Serie B section is abandoned. Will put few words in later in the week.
  3. Re: Serie B Eurobet > April 10th - 14th Frosinone - Pescara Pescara +0.25 (AH-FT) @1.93 5/10 SBOBET For my taste, odds are set wrongly as maximum of 0 AH should be given for Pescara on these odds. Frosinone will miss some crucial players in this game - 4 important ones and three of them did play in last match, while Pescara can live without one defender that I rate as important. Also I noticed that despite Frosinone is in excellent position on the table, is slowly but surely loosing grip and their form is in down spiral. Sure, they have great home record, but that is the only thing that speaks in their favour. I reckon that Pescara will not do the same stupidity as in last match, when they should really beat Brescia and they are more than able to pick up at least a point from this tie. Brescia - Bologna F.C. Bologna F.C. 0 (AH-FT) @ 1.86 5/10 Dafabet One simple reason for this bet, well there are more, but I like the positional spot that teams are currently in. Brescia needs a win and for that reason they will need to attack and that is situation that Bologna and their coach loves to play in. They simply can’t play against methodical and slow paced teams but will enjoy playing against a team that will want to score goals and have at best mediocre defence. Both teams do miss some players, but IMO nothing crucial for either coach. I think that Bologna has superior team to Brescia (Brescia fans already unhappy with experienced players and demanding to see young fresh faces in first eleven), while I also think that this time Calori will not have the magic stick like he did have for them few season ago. So better players and also ability to play their game are main reason for this bet, of course Bologna also only beaten twice in last 15 games – both times against teams that they have problems of playing against (Vicenza and Carpi). Odds are nice and IMO we should not be getting more than 1.75 on this line.
  4. Re: Serie A TIM > April 11th & 12th Atalanta Bergamo - Sassuolo Atalanta Bergamo -0.25 (AH-FT) @ 1.86 5/10 SBOBET Despite not liking what Reja is doing with Atalanta since he took over and despite Pinilla is banned and despite Denis (who was their key striker in past seasons) is out of form, Atalanta is for me a must bet this weekend. It is a risky one, but due to table situation where they NEED to get three pointer ASAP and Sassuolo is far more relaxed and able to lose this game, while I also believe that odds/line is great for taking (and already in decline) and offer nice value. Another reason why I must take this bet is fact that both first choice full backs Peluso and Vrsaljko will miss the game for Sassuolo, while despite Pinilla is out, Denis and more importantly Gomez (on him tactics is set on) are back after missing last match and also Benaluane who did not play in last game and who I rate as by far the best defender at Atalanta will play. AC Milan - Sampdoria Sampdoria +0.5 (AH-FT)@ 1.92 5/10 SBOBET OK, why odds on Milan are going down is beyond me, but despite general population is putting their money on “name”, I do think that Milan do not have the power to win this game. Sadly for fans, Milan is made as counter attack team – hence the wins against open opposition as Palermo (despite they were totally lucky to win it) and Cagliari (zone word is enough: Zeman), but when they will play far more tactical team that have excellent midfield that will be at least on par with Milan bone crunchers who lack creativity overall, this will be by far heavier to do. Sampdoria is not so high on table due to being lucky and despite Mihajlovic played the last game vs. Sampdoria totally wrong as he defended for 90 minutes, I do think if he plays same tactics again, he will at least have a point. Milan cannot make the game against defensive teams, they prosper on counter attacks (weird for such “name” club) and if the open up too much, there are excellent midfielders from Samp, who all have good technique (hopefully Acquah gets the start as I really like him) and passing skills, while I don’t have to lose many words about their attack which is superb and only problem there for Samp is that Etoo – Muriel pairing still needs some gelling. There are some misses in both teams, but none of them crucial. De Silvestri should recover on FB position for Samp, while Bonaventura is also a doubt and with him out (also Montolivo is out) Milan will again have “three Gravesens” in midfield. Parma - Juventus Under 2.5 (Match)@ 1.93 5/10 PINNACLE Early bet as odds are already in decline! Odds are set on -1.5 and this line is somewhat interesting, but let we go in more in-depth analysis of this match. Having seen what teams are capable off, the major edge goes to Juve, they are clearly the better of two teams, the team in great form and if they would want to, they could kick the ass of poor Parma team. One thing also needs to be mentioned – both teams have already (not mathematically though) get to the end of the season for them in league. Parma will be relegated, while Juve will be champions. With 9 games Juve have 14 points advantage over Roma, while Parma is 16 points behind last safety spot. So nothing can happen here. Also if Parma manages to win all of the games and secure Serie A for next season – the club will almost surely fell apart and went again from the scratch of amateur football. So I predict rotation from Juve – Monaco game is of more importance, but with missings they have it will be hard to rotate a lot. Also with slight doubts over Tevez and Pirlo I am predicting they won’t play in this game at all. Still Juventus even without all those players (Barzagli and Lichtsteiner doubts, Pogba, Marchisio out) have superb team, with two superb strikers, top defence and still solid midfield and if things will go as predicted (Juve still want three points) I reckon, they will try to do the usual Juve. Press hard in half 1, take the lead and then let the time passes by. Simply looking at performances of Parma and their quality up front, Juve defence will not have any problems of keeping the net intact; they are simply too good there.
  5. Schwechat-Rapid Vienna II 1 ( 1X2) @ 2 2/10 Bet365 Few important reasons for the bet: Rapid will not get help from Profi team this time (they had some players in last game, but still lost the match), while also two important players for them are banned. Home team is full and in good form in last rounds. IMO price is too high. Limit on b365 on non limited accounts is nice and set on over 300 € - hence 2 units.
  6. LASK Linz - FAC Team fur Wien FAC Team fur Wien +0.75 (AH-FT) @ 1.89 4/10 SBOBET LASK is despite they changed coach, still playing poor football and it seems that with latest run without a win, prmotion fight is over, as Mattersburg has nice advantage of 7 points at the top (Liefe cant go in Bundesliga). FAC are showing better performances and I was convinced by their last game, where Hartberg should in reality have left this game with no points at all, as FAC was clearly better team, missed lot of chances and showed good football. They made suicide at the end of match, as two huge mistakes from FAC defence virtually gifted win to Hartberg and left us with result that was utterly different from what was played on the pitch. Line of +0.75 is too high as due to performances shown, it should be set on max +0.5. Both teams are complete, with FAC recovering regular defender Bauer. SV Horn - FC Wacker Innsbruck FC Wacker Innsbruck +0.25 (AH-FT) @ 2.11 4/10 SBOBET Wacker showed improvement in last games, especially in LASK match they utterly dominated poor LASK that had no answer to their attacks. Horn showed brave performance against Lifering team, but that is always possible to play good against open football that LIfering plays. IMO only worry here are some misses at Innsbruck team as three players are out Pirkl and Ampem from defence and Vuleta in attack), while some are a doubt, but only Bergmann who plays on right side of attack can be conisered as regular player. Still I am pretty certain that last results and also finally a win should give this team more confidence. Also quality of teams is pretty similar and despite Wacker is last on the table fair line would be 0 with odds around evens, so this brings value.
  7. Re: Serie A TIM > January 10th & 11th Putting aside being incosistent, I believe they achieved best away results by playing "park the bus" 4-3-2-1 tactics in those matches (I ma certain about Napoli and Lazio games with that set up) as they were really able to neutralise opposittion. it is long time ago, and I did not check my reviews about those matches.
  8. Re: Serie A TIM > January 10th & 11th Just saw that. Firstly thatnks for agreeing on Cesena game, but I simply cant agree on your statement that Sassuolo are relegation material. They played some superb games this season and are hugely improved from last one and currently their defence ranks in the top of Serie A (just take out that sad 0-7 beating by Inter and even stats will tell you where they are currently in conceded goals). If you think that Milan game is a benchmark, you should take a look on Roma - Sassuolo 2-2, where they showed superb organisational skills and in reality (despite I am Roma fan), they deserved to win it. Also they made two superb signings in Vrsaljko and Peluso and all of their players in tridente are one year older - Berardi and Zaza are mightly talented players. I could go on and on about them, but for sure, nobody can be surprised if they will finish on places around 10-12 place. And despite I do agree that teams are of similar quality and that in those cases maybe +0.5 is a good move to take, Udinese for me are the weirdest team around, no consistency whatsoever so they are always likely to put on either Jekyll or Hyde performance. Probably they are even more untrustable as Inter and Milan nowadays. Sassuolo will have hard time playing against defensive lineup from Udine, but one thing should be considered. Di Natale is like 55 years old and fatigue might be an issue - he did leave last game around 65 minute - but even more, in this kind of game where Udine will play counter attack, his lack of pace will nto do Udine any favours.
  9. Re: Serie A TIM > January 10th & 11th ----- Cagliari - Cesena Team news Home: Injury: - Banned: Conti MIDF 12/0 , Farias ATT 13/3 Doubt: Ibarbo ATT 13/2, Sau ATT 11/4, Cossu AMC/ATT 16/2, Cragno GK 14/0 Away: Injury: Marilungo ATT 8/1, Renzetti DEF 11/0, Tabanelli MIDF 3/0 Banned: - Doubt: - Preview: Cagliari despite changing Zeman with Zola made one of bigger losses of season so far, trashed by Palermo with 5-0. Ibarbo and Sau missed the game and are big doubts for this one as well, Conti and Farias got bans for this one, so this is critical situation for coach that wants to play 4-3-3 formation as Cagliari now has a big lack of strikers. Cesena tried to play against better opposition in home match vs. Napoli, but got also trashed same as their opposition, but they do recover Defrel for this match. Things are going really bad for both of those teams. But in this case it is hard to take a look on past results due to both teams having new coaches since not long time. What I gathered from their performances is that Cagliari will play even more offensive and pressing game under Zola, but their defending is awful, probably they even looked better under Zeman. In this last match they looked vulnerable from every position available, be it set pieces or open play. Cesena with new coach Di Carlo did not change much as they still perform with similar 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 formation so they look similar as under Bisoli. Misses for Cagliari (if Sau and Ibarbo miss) are huge Sau is their best finisher, Ibarbo is their best creator in attacking “tridente”, Conti is creator in midfield and Farias is good in positioning himself for open shot and player with good dribbling skills, but usually misses good chances. But if Zola will want to play similar stlye, he is left with Cossu - more of a Totti like player not a goal scorer (but even he is doubtfull), Inter loanee Longo 11/0 and two youngsters Rangel 18yo and Loi 18yo. So crisis in attack, and combine this with awful defence and add 0 wins at home thus far and Cagliari will have major problems of winning even against this painful to watch Cesena. Cesena do have some misses, but more or less all are long time injured so no bigger issues for them, even more, their best scorer Defrel is back in team after ban. What is also important in this case? I mentioned already in last week – that is that Zola is not satisfied with current roster and is looking for new goalie and new acquisitions in defence. I also asked myself question if this will motivate back line to perform better or worse and IMO answer is there, 5 conceded tells a lot about performance of their back line. There are only few days to next game and only Gonzalez came from Verona thus far to strengthen back line. Cesena is working these days in far more peaceful situation. Tactically Cagliari would play 4-3-3 formation but due to misses this could be changed to 4-3-1-2 system in this game, Cesena probably with variation of 3-5-2. What also speaks in favour of Cesena is the fact that they will have options to counter attack against high pressing team and that is surely good for them. I simply can’t see them fighting in open match against Cagliari here. Even more Cagliari with 0 wins at home and relegation places are under more pressure as Cesena at the moment, hence backing away team is very wise thing to do in my opinion. So Cesena +0,75 @ odds over 2.00 is a good bet and should be taken with regular stakes. Additional bets could be Cesena to score and both to score.
  10. Re: Italy lower div You surely mean under 2.25 ;) I do agree with choice as both have major problems of scoring goals. But I tend to like HW here, checking the games these two played - lets take last three ones. Mantova had to play really strong opposittion and they did not show bad performance, got goal dissalowed in last round and were unlucky in Sudtirol match as guests scored from penalty and from one of rare chances. Novara is one level above them so loosing was no surprise at all. Albino faced only teams from bottom of the league and despite playing quite decently in 2/3 those matches, last game was disaster as they were taken apart from Lumezzane team. IMO you are correct when you say teams are probable on similar level, but Albino (at least how i saw it) has major problems with ups and downs during the match and opposittion needs 10 minutes of them is dissaray to crack them open. Odds are now on 1.85-1.90 for HW and that is too low. For me only live betting when line will be on -0.25 BTW - no major problems for either team in this match, Albino full, hostts miss one to suspension and one is doubtfull I like Ascoli today, but due derby match that one, again more "juice" needed to back them up, IMO -0.25 on 2.00+ should be good enough.
  11. Re: Serie B Eurobet > December 16th - 20th Again agree, huge misses for Carpi today, it will be hard for them to score, but on other hand, they are playing extremely well and will be really hard to beat. At this point when odds going down for Lanciano (in morning you could have gotten over 2.10 for same line, so IMO you took this one too late, as misses were known for longer period of time already) I am considering backing Carpi on + hcap as soon this will have nice value in it. Also personally Lanciano for me (subjective view) is the team to back when underdog and not when they are on negative hcap + veeeerrry lucky win agaisnt Terni in last round, Carpi should have demolished Modena in last game but managed only one goal.
  12. Re: Serie B Eurobet > December 16th - 20th You are correct, but three things stand out to me: 1. Avellino could be playing with 3rd keeper today as obvious first choice Gomis (really good goalie) is out, 2nd one had problems with ilness and did not train, 2. added misses that you have written are important as almost all of them could be first choice players. 3. Castaldo - out of form and without him Avellino loooks half the team from last season, he scored on 8.11. and consequently Avellino managed 1 goal in 5. Bologna despite misses have far more options in their team. So I do see much value in Bologna 0 - IMO takeable up to 1.90ish odds.
  13. Re: Serie A TIM > December 18th - 21st To add smt about Torino - Genoa debate: Myself also see Torino as a favourite to win this game, missings for Genoa are huge as both Perotti and Perin are huge, if Kucka will not make it, then that means missings of key players in each department of the pitch. BUT reasons why I dont like it are similar to the ones Phantom wrote. Genoa is superb in away games and thrives on counter attacks, Purely WDL away record of 4-3-0 is superb, Martinez is just what Torino needed (Amauri slow and clumsy, Quagliarella as suspected, still excellent up to the part, when it is needed to put the ball into the net, he has same problem for his whole career, if his finishing was better, I am sure he would be Azzuri legend and would not be playing for Torino ATM. I saw stats few weeks ago and he needed like 50 shots to score 2 or 3 goals), but you cant put soo much trust in him at this point in time,+ Lamanna - he is surely not bad keeper, I remember him from Serie B and despite he is not Perin, he can do well (he did save penalty shot vs. Roma in last match seconds after he came into the match), odds - I simply dont see any value in current odds, IMO min value line for Torino should be at least at 2.20, with -0.25 line worth taking well over 1.90. Conclusion: I like Toro in this occasion, they need a win badly and have performance to go with it, Darmian, Peres and El Kaddouri are the players that can make the difference, but as said, odds are just too bad to take the pre game. So I will play "the waiting game".
  14. Re: Fitness & Motivation - Betting in the final third Read over your thoughts and the input that was shared by other members. I dont know if I agree or disagree, but I did come to conclusion that I simply dont look at the last third of the season on same way or better said, I dont take into account the whole segment of factors that you do when it comes to betting. Personally I dont change my betting pattern over the season, but on other hand, I can split the season similarly as you split a book, sadly I can not say the correct words (due to language barrier) in English, but to make it simple for me seasons has 3 chapters and each of the chapters needs to have adittional information / knowledge included to make clear picture to myself Begining of the season (rounds 1-6): Included is knowledge gathered from transfer window and displays in preparation period, coach changes and all other »off the pitch« factors. Also detalied knowledge on teams and subjective rankings should bet aken into account in those rounds. I still believe first rounds of the season offer most value as books usually set the prices on previous seasons. Season (rounds 7-30): On pitch performances, injuries, number of matches, EL matches should be added to previiously made rankings. At that point you also know how the team plays, which tactics will they use, know coaches mentality in home/away games, know which opposittion tactics will suit them and which not. Rankings are still important but whole bunch of new information is added to get the clearer picture. End of season (rounds 31-38): Motivational factor should be invloved along with all factors in »chapter 2«. You can easily see if team is already on vacation or not who needs points. So this is added to the analyse of the game. but of course there are still teams that dont follow the pattern of »already playing for nothing and hence playing like crap«, you will remember Grosseto from their relegation season, they were still playing good football despite already down, on other hand, Sampdoria has gone in off mode in two seasons in a row (under 2 different coaches) when they secured another season in Serie A. With that being said (I surely forgot lots of things that influence my judgement on making own prices and seeking bets, while I also can admit, that learning in betting is constant process) I dont see fitness levels (maybe I do but are included in the »on pitch performances« as a crucial factor, whereas psychology is a factor, but can not be used only in last part of the season. Hope I made sense with that.
  15. Re: Serie A TIM > December 13th - 15th I dont know if i am right. But to expect evens for Cagliari over 2.5 and against Parma is underestimating bookies heavily. They are not dumb. Even vs chievo odds for over 2.5 were 1.92 and we simply cant compare Chievo and Parma. I am not the smartest man alive so if this ends with 0-0 please dont put me on cross and hit nails in my hands (as i will then have to return only after 24th of december as messiah of betting) :)
  16. Re: Serie A TIM > December 13th - 15th Not true, they managed 4 in Cup ;). And despite 4-0 vs. Fiore they missed some 3 or 4 clearest chances and fell apart psyhologically after 2-0. Vs chievo it was hard as Zeman played almost full team in that 4-4 cup game vs. Modena. As said stats have nothing to do with it but more tactics, bad defences and need for a win at both teams.
  17. Re: Serie A TIM > December 13th - 15th Hi, Lazio sadly beat hcap yesterday but it was Atlanalta playing like crap. This ones are for today, odds changed a bit since they were taken yesterday- i am running a betting service so i am posting with delay. Gl if you follow. Parma -vs- Cagliari Over Under:+2.75 Over @ 1.96 Parma -vs- Cagliari Asian Handicap:-0.25 Parma @ 2.06 Parma showed improvement in recent games and despite missing still a lot of players now they face a team that is playing in worst for thus far in this season - looked at some records and this is Zemans low point so far - only 11 points in A after so many rounds. Ibarbo who is their key man and another striker Sau out is big problem for them. Parma found a bit of rhytm and despite their defence is still bad  they performed really well agains Lazio and should not have lost it - also had legitimate goal turn down. Overs are logical as both play offensive along with leaky defences. Empoli -vs- Torino Asian Handicap:+0.25 Torino @ 1.87 Torino found new Cerci in Martinez - surely he will play after impressing in last two games as he scored 3 goals in them. Empoli is good team, but any positive hcap for Toro here is a must take betting wise. Teams are similar but Empoli do miss two first choice full backs for this one and with Torino having superb wing backs this is their chance, if idiota Quglirella finally will start finishing chances they can even win this game. AC Milan -vs- Napoli Asian Handicap:0.00 Napoli @ 1.88 Milan miss bith first choice full backs along with key defender Alex, so Bonera will play and that is superb as Napoli play mostly on wide attackers - Callejon and Mertens or even better  - De Guzman who is superb in last month. Higuain found the rhytm and IMO Napoli is atm better team. It will be hard for them to win it, but DNB gives us pretty safe option. Udinese -vs- Hellas Verona Asian Handicap:-0.50 Udinese @ 2.00 Verona in crisis and missing almost whole midfield - key midfielders Obaddi and Ionita are out, Tacthsidis is walkind dead actor so only Halfredsson egine will play in midfield for them. Rafa marquez is banned and key keeper Rafael injured in last training. Udinese I dont like a lot but they are typical home team and should exploit problems in defence that Verona have. Juventus -vs- Sampdoria Asian Handicap:+1.50 Sampdoria @ 1.92 Far too big hcap for Sampa in this game, lost only once so far and played really good - better and better every week and their tridente of Okaka - Gabbiadini - Eder is probably better than Inters attack or even Milan attack. Only lost match for Sampa was in 92nd minute against Inter in away game. Due to Juve having to play CL match and missing key CD - only two available for them (out are Barzagli, Chiellini and Caceres) this is problem agaisnt fast paced Sampa. IMO line should be on max +1.25 so this is
  18. Re: Serie A TIM > December 13th - 15th Who says Italian football is boring deserves a kick in the nuts - I am refering to Palermo - Sassuolo match.
  19. Re: Serie A TIM > December 13th - 15th No, no mate. I am also just thinking about +1 on Cesena, looking without any other influences on this match, Fiore have far better team, never mind the missing of both named players. But it is kind off big hcap, considering Cesena usually did well, well at least at home and usually took the lead in home games. But overall, more better matches to bet on on sunday and monday. Have some on shortlist already but waiting for "convocati" to be anounced. BTW - really no need to click "thanks" button for every post :)
  20. Re: Serie A TIM > December 13th - 15th Yep agree, Atalanta is awful in attack, hopefully Gomez who is now in 2nd game since injury return can add something to them. Boakye maybe even better solution as Denis as IMO he is not so bad, as much as 4-4-1-1 tactics is read through. It did gave Atalanta results two years ago, now any coach already knows how to defend against it. Bianchi played in last game vs. Cesena after Colantuono finally played with 4-4-2 after going 2 goals behind. Sportiello is class act this season and agree biggest goalie surprise so far - next to Kavezis for Udine. Agree that Lazio have superior attack - luckily next to Djordjevic/Klose, we have two incosistent youngsters who can do either extremely well or put on crap performance. Lets hope for 2nd one. But as mentioned, line is totally out of line. PS: Cesena +1 also looks pretty good as Bisoli (park the bus manager) is gone and Fiore without Cuadrado and Babacar + played EL match with quite strong line up. So a bit food for mind until sunday.
  21. Re: Serie A TIM > December 13th - 15th I would also like to add the small value on Palermo tomorrow. We are talking about Palermo - Sassuolo match, and despite Sassuolo is in superb run and should give problems to Palermo there are team issues that needs to be adressed. Palermo recovers Vazquez (missed him hard in Torino game as Belotti is not player on same level) in 3-5-1-1 formation, while Barreto is also back, despite I read that he is rated as a doubt - along with Dybala, they are most important players for Palermo offence. Sassuolo will have to play without both first choice full backs and their biggest transfers this season Vrsaljko and Peluso, so FB will be on level of last season, when Sassuolo had one of the worst defences. Add to that Berardi is out - key in attack (looking with game with him and without him Sassuolo only went on strong run when he returned from three game ban) before that they were really bad. So this is a huge blow for them. Odds are around evens and that is only decent IMO, 2.20 is more for my liking here on home team. We should know that Sassuolo would have top 5 defence if not that Inter game + they deserved to trash ROma on Olimpico in last match and missed quite some chances to make it 3 or 4-0. Still, those three players are huge for them and it will be hard to resist probably best attacker in Serie A at moment - Dybala - without them.
  22. Re: Serie A TIM > December 13th - 15th Long time since I written somethin in this threads. Lets make this round a rich one... Lazio - Atalanta Atalanta +1 @ 1.92 Pinnacle 2/4 Main reason is that Lazio is missing whole!! midfield unit that played key role for them. Candreva, Biglia and Parolo all out. Add to that two other midfielders that could play in those roles Ederson and Pereirinha out also. Add to that Braahfeld who is usual LB out, Radu who replaces him on that position a doubt. Atalanta is bad due to Conlantuno idiotic insisting on 4-4-1-1 formation but in this case big value on those line and odds as if they can do something - they can defend really well and support from midfield for Lazio attack is OUT.
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