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CzechPunter

February 10 - February 16

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Small loss for me last week, hope for better this week. I've decided to make a note of my progress on the tennis threads this season in my signature, and I'll update it at the end of each tournament. The figures are based on one unit stakes and take into account Betfair commission, and they reflect every bet that I have posted this year. Several forum members suggested during the Australian Open that opposing big favourites in Tennis is a bad idea, so keeping a record like this will help to show if that is the case and will also be a way of keeping perspective during the inevitable long losing runs.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Andreas Seppi to beat Tomas Berdych @ 9.60 Betfair I accept that Seppi has made a poor start to the season, with the exception of his only win so far against Hewitt at the Australian Open, but he has a decent record in Rotterdam and so this might be the tournament where his form starts to take a turn for the better. As far as Berdych is concerned he has been strong in recent weeks, and he looked good when playing Davis Cup last time out. The last time these two met on indoor hard Seppi stayed with Berdych for a set even though he lost in straights, and if the Italian can find some form in this match then he might be able to push the Czech again. Berdych is a worthy favourite, but not to this degree in my opinion and so even though Seppi comes into this match on the back of poor Davis Cup result on clay against Berlocq he remains the value play for me.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Tuesday in Rotterdam ATP: Benneteau to bt Janowicz @2.44 local bookie (4/10) I don't like Benneteau much because he is extremely moody player, but then he is defending the Final from last year here. Both Bene and Jerzy are giant servers, so one would expect the breaks will be rare. All points to Janowicz win because he leads H2H 2-0, but 1) Janowicz lost here in R1 last year to hardcore claycourter Hanescu in two sets 2) Janowicz most probably suffers some sort of health problems, because during his match vs Gasquet in Montpelier couple of days ago he was asking for painkillers, and otherwise did not look well. GL

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Roberta Vinci for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Pinnacle Like the look of Pironkova here. The two qualifying victories show that she isn't injured anymore and she has been playing really well so far in the new season, while Roberta Vinci is 0-4 in 2014 and I just cannot bring myself to trust her just yet with that in mind. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pironkova-vs-vinci-betting-tsvetana-pironkova-looks-value-against-the-out-of-form-italian

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Back J.Vesely/M.Matosevic - Over 22 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.94 with Pinnacle The conditions in Memphis should be on the faster side of things, so I quite fancy this overs line to be covered today. Both Vesely and Matosevic can serve big, but neither seems to be consistent enough to run away with this without any difficulties. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/vesely-vs-matosevic-betting-a-long-match-might-be-on-the-cards-for-the-two-powerful-guys-in-memphis

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Mladenovic to beat Cepelova 5/6 most bookies At first glance her chances don't look good: she trails the head to head 0-2 and has lost 7 of her last 10 matches. However in her defence she has had some very difficult matches. I believe she is an improving player and now has the beating of a player like Cepelova. Mladenovic has a good all round game with good ground-strokes, powerful serve and is an excellent net player. Although there is little difference in their rankings I'm convinced that Mladenovic can push on an make large inroads into her current 71 ranking. I'll be disappointed if I've read this game wrong and expect the head to head to read 1-2 after this game.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Michael Russell (+3) to beat Michal Przysiezny for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Pinnacle Neither guy is playing well at the moment, but the conditions should give the edge to Michael Russell in my opinion. This might actually be one of the main highlights of his season, so I do expect him to play his heart out. Outside the United States, Przysiezny would be a big favorite to win this, but, back home, I expect Russell to keep this rather tight. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/russell-vs-przysiezny-betting-michael-russell-can-shine-in-home-conditions

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Support for Nick Kyrgios to beat Smyczek with Betfair @2.12 Here I'm making my support for Australian junior hero Kyrgios. He has big weapons like the serve. Also having a powerful cross court backhand making a lot of trouble for Smyczek. Smyczek very limited player with not much weapon to destroy tough player like Kyrgios. Only danger is match is in America so the local boy try hard. But still in playing style Kyrgios ready to make the next step and win.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Kirsten Flipkens to beat Lucie Safarova for a 8/10 stake at 1.84 with Pinnacle Safarova spent her Monday by playing on clay in Spain, so I just cannot see her being fully prepared for this one. Flipkens can play well and she can certainly beat Safarova under these circumstances. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/flipkens-vs-safarova-betting-kirsten-flipkens-a-worthy-favorite-against-lucie-safarova-on-tuesday

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Bethanie Mattek-Sands to beat Eugenie Bouchard for a 6/10 stake at 2.87 with Pinnacle Bouchard has had to make the long trip from Canada to Qatar after playing in the Fed Cup over the weekend, so she might easily feel the after-effects of that on Tuesday. Moreover, Mattek-Sands beat her quite easily in Sydney just a few weeks ago, so this match-up is probably not ideal for her either. With all that in mind, this price looks worth taking to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/mattek-sands-vs-bouchard-betting-eugenie-bouchard-looks-a-bit-overrated-over-in-doha

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Lukas Rosol to beat Marin Cilic @ 5.60 Betfair As Rosol has only one win to his name this season, it's fair to say that I'm not backing him here because of his current form. He did give Robredo a run for his money at the Australian Open, but even so it's more that I think this could be a good time to oppose Cilic, as he faces a quick turnover having won the title in Zagreb at the weekend. It's also possible he might be feeling the effects of five matches in a week, and as Rosol is capable of beating almost anyone if his game clicks into gear then Cilic could be vulnerable in this match. Each time they have played each other previously there have been tie-breaks, which suggest Rosol isn't completely out of his depth when facing Cilic, and if the Croat isn't at his best this could be the match where Rosol's season starts in earnest.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 1 pick for the ATP ROTTERDAM JANOWICZ-BENNETEAU over 22 games @ 1.66 on pinnaclesports Should be a long close match. Janowicz is great indoors and is a favorite but Benneteau can match him from the baseline and has an OK serve as well.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Kvitova 1.91 tb Williams?Should this not be 1.6/7?Actually went looking for a Williams price thought she could pull an upset but those prices look weird... Kvitova is 1.35 w/Betfair.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Support for Querrey 2-0 in sets with Bogomolov@4/5 in Bet365 Bogomolov comes in bad shape losing with Unknown Irish James McGee in Challenger getting only 3 games in 2 sets. Now I cant explain to why such bad showing, before that he injured in Australian Open and withdraw with Fognini in 2 sets, so Bogomolov in bad form and no fitness. Querrey in America always playing well, big serve should make easy hold and Bogomolov playing with no confidence, Querrey should make a meal of him in 2 sets.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 V.Williams to bt Petra Kvitova @1.76 local bookie (6/10) I must go against Kvitova here. All Petra has shown this year was couple of wins at obscure tournament Hopman Cup, and that was all. In Sydney she beat out-of form McHale and Lucie Safarova before losing to Pironkova. Pironkova is a beast, so I would not count that loss as a choke. But since then - plain nothing. Loss to Kumkhum at Australian Open was an indicator that something is going wrong with Petra. She complained about health problems, and health problems were also the reason she withdrew from Fed Cup last weekend. Venus playing well, I can't see Petra beating top class player in the state she is now.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Horacio Zeballos to beat Nicolas Almagro @ 7.20 Betfair Zeballos surrendered his title quite tamely last week in the end, but his pedigree on clay means he has the game to beat Almagro here. The Spaniard didn't look that great to me in Vina del Mar, and he has been prone in the past to losing matches that he is expected to win. Zeballos hasn't been able to trouble Almagro in previous meetings, but it wouldn't surprise me if he manages to turn that around here by putting in one of his better performances. Julian Reister to beat Fabio Fognini @ 6.80 Betfair Reister has been having fitness problems so far this season, but if he is now finally over those his experience on clay means he could have a chance against Fognini. The Italian has now played six matches in a dozen or so days, and although he had similar busy spells last season without problems it's possible that fatigue could creep into his game. Clay is certainly Reister's favourite surface, and having completed a three set match last week he should feel that he can go toe to toe with Fognini and give him a good game. Maximo Gonzalez to beat David Ferrer @ 15.00 Betfair Gonzalez spends most of his time playing on clay in South America, and his familiarity with these conditions means that he shouldn't be this long in my opinion. This is Ferrer's first match of the season on clay having last played at the Australian Open on hard, and even though he did the same thing last season I'm always wary when a player transitions from one surface to another. The Spaniard has already suffered a couple of surprise defeats this year, and even in the matches that he has won he hasn't always been convincing and so Gonzalez should feel this is a good time to play him.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 OMG, never seen retirement like this - Cibulkova was obviously not feeling well during her match with Kleybanova, but running away to the locker room without a word IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GAME Cibu-Kleyb (5:5 15-0*) is rather strange. Is Ciblkova pregnant or what?

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Haase/Kas v Monroe/Stadler 12.01.2014 / 18:00 Tennis - ATP - Doubles - Buenos Aires Pick: Nicholas Monroe & Simon Stadler (To Win Match) Odds: 2.00 Bookmaker: Bet365 Haase and Kas even lower rating , and less teamwork - so in this one cant agree with the bookies. Yes there is less, only some 2 match played together and those on hard. Robin is a finalist last year's Australian Open paired with Igor Sijsling , but that does not negate the fact that after the triumph , he and his team-mates lost in 14 cases out of 20. If he took in the second round , then with huge battles and on major holidays. Naturally , there's not forget about the other guy - Christopher Kas , he certainly has much better results in a pair , still, deeply doubt that this duo has a future in this tournament. Monroe and Stadler - this pair has been around for a long time , since the beginning of the 2012 season. On account of these guys won tournaments 6 - 5 challengers and one of a series of ATP "250" in Bastade. Together played 103 matches, victories and defeats difference more than positive. Act on clay in 76% of cases this season , that is just playing on this surface , know its secrets. In the first season they played exclusively on small tournaments last year began to vary large with small. As shown, on the larger tournaments Nick and Simon are not lost , again it may be recalled that there is one title , there are two finals. By the way , a year earlier here in Buenos Aires they reached a higher stage , that is, will be enough motivation. Naturally, this is the beginning of the season and for the first couple it will be the third match of the year, and for the second - just a second. But do not take advantage of such a proposal would be unforgivable , since the odds should be in direct proportion exposed.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Kaia Kanepi to beat Simona Halep for a 7/10 stake at 2.73 with Pinnacle Worth a bet I would say. Simona Halep is yet to hit her heights in 2014 and I am just not willing to trust her until she starts firing once again. Kaia Kanepi is a decent player in her own right and I wouldn't be surprised by seeing her win on Wednesday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kanepi-vs-halep-betting-kaia-kanepi-looks-value-against-simona-halep-on-wednesday

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Michael Russell to beat Tim Smyczek for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Pinnacle Michael Russell played his heart out against Michal Przysiezny on Monday and I think that we are going to see yet another spirited performance from him against Tim Smyczek. I would rate Russell as the favorite here, so this looks like a good price to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/russell-vs-smyczek-betting-michael-russell-can-progress-to-the-third-round-in-memphis

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Re: February 10 - February 16 I've just gone through my figures up to the beginning of this week and have realised that they are wrong. This was a genuine mistake and not an attempt to mislead, and I have now corrected them.

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Re: February 10 - February 16 Thiemo De Bakker to beat Richard Gasquet @ 8.00 Betfair De Bakker has had a relatively quiet start to the season, and has only played qualifiers in Brisbane and at the Australian Open plus a single Davis Cup rubber. I'm not sure why he hasn't played more matches, but he has taken a wildcard at his home tournament which suggests he is ready to play. His opponent Gasquet looks in good form, but suffered a disappointing defeat in the final of the Open Sud de France at the weekend. He might be ready to go deep at another tournament straight away, but as De Bakker should have the crowd behind him and is capable of getting the odd good result I'm going to back the Dutchman here.

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