February 10 - February 16

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Lucie Safarova to beat Petra Kvitova for a 5/10 stake at 3.11 with Pinnacle One for me early on, although I may add some ATP picks later on. Basically, Safarova looks very determined and very motivated, while Kvitova didn't look that good against Venus Williams on Wednesday. Both can be hit or miss, so I like the price on Safarova here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/safarova-vs-kvitova-betting-lucie-safarova-can-go-one-round-further-in-doha

[paul21144]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Haas to beat Janowicz @ 6/4. Seems long to me, I thought they'd both be around the 10/11 mark. Haas will be tired after his 2 and a half hour battle to break serve with Verdasco. He must be playing quite well, made a final Sunday v Cilic. Tie break could be another fair bet in this game. Janowicz is hard to break. Come on Tommy, you are still pure class. Fitness could be the issue. Also like Hewitt 1/2 to beat Baghdatis.

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Nicolas Mahut to beat Tomas Berdych @ 8.40 Betfair Mahut has struggled to get going so far this season, but he got a handy win in the first round against Brands and so it seems he is over whatever it was that caused him to retire against Mathieu in Montpellier last week. He hasn't had a lot of joy against Berdych previously, but if he can serve well that might give him more of a chance here. Berdych didn't have to do too much to see off Seppi in his last match, and hopefully Mahut can provide a little more resistance than the Italian did. The Frenchman has plenty of experience, and so I can't help thinking Berdych is too short in this match. Paul-Henri Mathieu to beat Juan Martin Del Potro @ 11.00 Betfair Del Potro beat Monfils in his first match which is a good result on the face of it, however Monfils was able to break Del Potro on a couple of occasions and if it wasn't for the Frenchman's exertions in winning the title in Montpellier last week he might have been able to find a way past the big Argentine. Prior to that match Del Potro was knocked out of the Australian Open by Bautista Agut, and so I think he needs to be in better form to justify this kind of favouritism against Mathieu. Although Mathieu has started the season poorly, he won a couple of matches in qualifying here and then got a creditable win against Dodig in the first round and so it might be that he is coming into some form. If that turns out to be the case, then for me he is well worth backing in this match. Dominic Thiem to beat Andy Murray @ 18.00 Betfair I think Thiem is worth a shot in this match, as he has a winning record so far this season and will have nothing to lose against Murray. The young Austrian has had plenty of time to get used to conditions having made his way through qualifying and past Nieminen in the first round, whereas Murray has only had one match against a lacklustre Roger-Vasselin. This will be a big test for Thiem, but good things are expected of him and Murray can be vulnerable in the early rounds as Florian Mayer showed in Doha.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Jeremy Chardy to beat Aleksandr Dolgopolov for a 7/10 stake at 1.78 with Unibet You just can't trust Dolgopolov at the moment. So much talent, but no consistency whatsoever - and consistency is what matters the most on clay. Chardy has already beaten Dolgopolov in this season and he has been playing well in recent weeks, so I fancy him to get yet another victory against the Ukrainian today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/chardy-vs-dolgopolov-betting-jeremy-chardy-can-get-yet-another-victory-over-aleksandr-dolgopolov

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Albert Ramos to beat Filippo Volandri for a 7/10 stake at 1.75 with Pinnacle Last one for me today. Albert Ramos has a 3-1 record against Volandri and he is still an improving player, while the Italian isn't going anywhere anymore, so I very much like the Spaniard here. And yes, Volandri nearly lost against Christian Garin in the first round here, so that doesn't look too encouraging either. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ramos-vs-volandri-betting-albert-ramos-looks-value-to-get-his-fourth-win-against-filippo-volandri-

[Metaphor]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Hello Torque, I have noticed you focus on backing underdogs and although my approach to tennis betting is not the same I respect your style and would like to give some feedback. In my opinion, big upsets happen more often in WTA than in ATP. However, I can't remember you ever picking a heavy female underdog. Women are just so inconsistent and mentally weak, thats why I usually stay away from WTA, as I like backing favourites. Let's look at the ongoing Doha tournament for instance: -R1 Hsieh def. Pennetta (avg. odds 4.23) -R2 Lucic def. Pavlyuchenkova (4.81) -R2 Zakopalova def. Ivanovic (5.20) -R2 Cepelova def. Stosur (5.82) -R2 Wickmayer def. Wozniacki (4.13) -R2 Cetkovska def. Li (6.30) Of course this is too small of a sample but I believe your style would be more profitable on womens tennis. Correct me if I was wrong when I said you never bet WTA, maybe I just recalled incorrectly. Thanks for the tips and good luck!

[KavkaZ]

Re: February 10 - February 16 I Sijsling - M Berrer Today, 22:00 Tennis - ATP Pick: 1 (-3.5 games) Odds: 2.04 Unibet Consider the meeting of the 2nd round of the tournament in Rotterdam ATP , between local tennis Sijsling and german Berrer. German is on the 147th place in the ATP rankings , ATP tournaments in his career none won. Season started with Australian Open , where in the second round lost to Lopez. In Zagreb , also in the second round , lost to Evans , here in the first round match won v local player Huta Galung. 10.02.14 Berrer M. - J. Huta Galung 2:1 (6:4, 2:6, 6:3) Sijsling , which is on the 64th line in the ATP rankings , also not so hot started the new season , losing in the first round in Brisbane to frenchman Mahut , then fly from Oakland at the expense of Lu and AO from local Kokkinakis both losses were in the first round. In the 2nd round of the tournament in Zagreb lost to Kuznetsov , but there are positive aspects , first, a home tournament where ashamed to get an exit at such an early stage , and secondly it's yesterday's match: Youzhny M. - Sijsling 0:2 (2:6, 2:6) It seems that a home tournament dutchman well prepared. This is the second match between these tennis players , the first held in 2012 in Moscow, took the top Sijsling : 16.10.12 Sijsling - M. Berrer 2:0 (7:6, 6:3) Why not repeat that success even before the home audience ? Note also that before this meeting Berrer spent 2 heavy 3 sets match, about meeting with Huta Galung we have already mentioned , and before that was still playing with Kubot : 09.02.14 M. Berrer - L. Kubot 2:1 (5:7, 6:4, 6:4) In general, based on the game against russian Youzhny, Sijsling had in the 1st round , and taking into account only "personal" meeting on hard, coupled with geographical location of the tournament , we are entitled to expect a Dutch victory in today's meeting , and confident of victory we put.

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Daniel Gimeno-Traver to beat Nicolas Almagro @ 5.40 Betfair Gimeno-Traver beat Almagro the last time they played each other at this tournament several years ago, and the circumstances then are broadly the same now in that Almagro was a strong favourite. Meetings between the two on clay are generally close, and Gimeno-Traver is certainly good enough to get results against the top players on clay. I'm not convinced Almagro is in the best of form, and so I think Gimeno-Traver has a real chance here, particularly if he steps up his game as he usually does against Almagro.

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16

Hello Torque, I have noticed you focus on backing underdogs and although my approach to tennis betting is not the same I respect your style and would like to give some feedback. In my opinion, big upsets happen more often in WTA than in ATP. However, I can't remember you ever picking a heavy female underdog. Women are just so inconsistent and mentally weak, thats why I usually stay away from WTA, as I like backing favourites. Let's look at the ongoing Doha tournament for instance: -R1 Hsieh def. Pennetta (avg. odds 4.23) -R2 Lucic def. Pavlyuchenkova (4.81) -R2 Zakopalova def. Ivanovic (5.20) -R2 Cepelova def. Stosur (5.82) -R2 Wickmayer def. Wozniacki (4.13) -R2 Cetkovska def. Li (6.30) Of course this is too small of a sample but I believe your style would be more profitable on womens tennis. Correct me if I was wrong when I said you never bet WTA, maybe I just recalled incorrectly. Thanks for the tips and good luck!

Hi Metaphor. Thanks for your post, it's always nice to read positive contributions to these threads such as yours. You are right to say that I don't post WTA picks, and ironically the reason for this is exactly the reason you suggest that my kind of betting would work well in Women's tennis. What you've written about Women players being inconsistent and mentally weak, whilst I don't necessarily agree with it, is something that I think is fairly well known. In my opinion, there are plenty of inconsistent and mentally weak players in Men's tennis, even though as you have written the perception is that they are more reliable, and because I'm going against the grain so to speak it's possible that this is where my edge lies (assuming I have a long-term edge that is). I think the reason what I'm doing may work is best illustrated at a time like this when I'm going through a losing run - nobody wants to lose nearly every bet they place, which is what always happens when you take on big favourites. I'm no different by the way, and it can be absolutely infuriating when one of the players I have backed throws away a break advantage or chokes with the winning line in sight or plain just doesn't turn up. Most people want to win, and they see the short prices available on some of the better known players and think that there is no way they can lose. They have a positive expectation which is much easier to deal with from a mental perspective, and so in a lot of cases certain players get overbet and the value switches to the other player. Another reason why I don't bet WTA is I think I would be spreading myself too thinly if I were to try to get a handle on each and every player on both tours, not to mention the sheer amount of matches I would need to look at, and by focussing on the ATP only it means that I can concentrate on getting to know as much about Men's tennis as I possibly can with the resources available to me. The way I see it this forum is about helping each other, and so whilst I might not post that many winners, if some of the information I post helps others on the forum with their betting then I think it's worthwhile that I continue. Right now I probably look like one of the worst punters around, as I'm posting loser after loser, but by the end of the season I hope to be in profit and that is where my focus lies. Anyway all the best with your punting, and if you're looking for good WTA bets or bets at around evens there are plenty of people that post on this forum that are very good in those areas. I see you also mentioned that you like to bet ATP favourites, so perhaps you will share some of your thoughts on matches here. :ok

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Santiago Giraldo to beat David Ferrer @ 8.40 Betfair Giraldo made a good start to the South American clay court swing in Vina Del Mar, where he made the last four and put in some encouraging performances. The Colombian does his best work on clay, and I think he will be keen to get as many good results as possible on the surface as he looks to rebound from a mediocre season last year. Ferrer had an unexpectedly difficult match against Maximo Gonzalez in his first match here, and the Argentinean had his chances to at least extend the match to three sets. Giraldo is a step up from Gonzalez in my opinion, and he has winning momentum on clay on his side and so might be able to push Ferrer even further than Gonzalez did.

[seifer365]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Hey torque, i just came across this thread and i really like tennis and what ye are doing on here. was just wondering do u always back the big dog in these matches. great prices but do alot of this guys/girls turn over the big favourite? i know they are upsets, just not in alot of the games

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16

Hey torque, i just came across this thread and i really like tennis and what ye are doing on here. was just wondering do u always back the big dog in these matches. great prices but do alot of this guys/girls turn over the big favourite? i know they are upsets, just not in alot of the games

Yes I focus on opposing favourites if the price is right. It's not going too well at the moment, but it's a long season so plenty of time to turn it around.

[seifer365]

Re: February 10 - February 16 its an interesting why of going at it, i do like the big prices, i know the strike rate will not be so high but returns when they hit must be pretty sweet. I find tennis a great sport to bet on the exchanges, when these big dogs take a set, do you secure profit on both outcomes? Tennis is pretty crazy, prices going all over the shop in-play alot of these games, great to make profit on if the 2 players make a match of it! i'm just looking at tennis live score here, plenty 3 set matches. i think 3 sets = profit and i mostly look for this in tennis.

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16

its an interesting why of going at it' date=' i do like the big prices, i know the strike rate will not be so high but returns when they hit must be pretty sweet. I find tennis a great sport to bet on the exchanges, when these big dogs take a set, do you secure profit on both outcomes? Tennis is pretty crazy, prices going all over the shop in-play alot of these games, great to make profit on if the 2 players make a match of it! i'm just looking at tennis live score here, plenty 3 set matches. i think 3 sets = profit and i mostly look for this in tennis.[/quote'] I don't trade any of the matches I bet on, as the way I look at it is that if I have a value price before the match starts I wouldn't want to trade out unless it was for another value price. In theory I could look to do that, but it would take a lot of time so I'm happy letting my bets run. I try not to watch though, as you said sometimes the underdog will take a set and get your hopes up only to lose in three (I'm looking at you Thiem and Gimeno-Traver, to name just two).

[seifer365]

Re: February 10 - February 16 yeah i see what your saying, u got the value price, you got pretty close in those 2 and Belrocq last nite did well, just faded in the third. yeah heartbreaking to watch but ur in there fighting, with the good bets, which is great! Good luck with ur picks

[impressivegol]

Re: February 10 - February 16 I've taken one in Doha, Jankovic -2.5 v. Kvitova. If you have watched Petra over the last few months you've seen a big decline. Her serve used to be a big weapon but now very tame, and she sprays more UEs around as her confidence has seemed to evade her. Jankovic on the other side of the fence is the kind of opponent that could really bother Petra because she'll play steady and make Petra hit her shots. Also Jankovic been in opposite form from petra, having strong results last few months. if they played 1 year ago Petra would be -3.5 here, but bookmakers have seen her decline too, hence the current price, which I feel is still worth taking.

[WinningTipster]

Re: February 10 - February 16 2 picks for the ATP ROTTERDAM CILIC+4 GAMES HANDICAP OVER murray @ 1.56 on pinnaclesports BERDYCH OVER 12.5 GAMES AGAINST JANOWICZ @ 1.72 on pinnaclesports Cilic after good win over Tsonga. Cilic is great for the last 2 week.. I am not sure about Murray's form, probably not giving his best, playing at about 70% capacity in this relatively small tournament. Berdych is in best form of his life, really, but janowicz should be able to keep it a close match

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Albert Ramos to beat David Ferrer for a 1/10 stake at 9.60 with Pinnacle Back A.Ramos/D.Ferrer - Over 19.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.91 with Pinnacle David Ferrer is just not firing at the moment for some reason, so going against him looks very logical to me. Ramos is obviously no world beater, but he has already managed to record two very solid victories in Buenos Aires, so he should have every chance of troubling Ferrer today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ramos-vs-ferrer-betting-albert-ramos-can-pose-a-few-problems-to-david-ferrer

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Yanina Wickmayer to beat Agnieszka Radwanska for a 3/10 stake at 6.00 with Pinnacle Back Yanina Wickmayer (+5.5) to beat Agnieszka Radwanska for a 4/10 stake at 1.98 with Pinnacle Radwanska hasn't been able to find her best in Doha so far, while Wickmayer seems to be on the rise at the moment, so I can see the Belgian getting something from this match. She has enough firepower to hit through Radwanska's defenses, after all. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wickmayer-vs-radwanska-betting-yanina-wickmayer-can-deliver-in-doha-for-the-fourth-time-in-a-row

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Yen-hsun Lu (-3) to beat Alex Kuznetsov for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Pinnacle Yen-hsun Lu has basically made a living out of these challenger-level matches, so I fancy him to win this with something to spare. Kuznetsov has been playing well in recent days, but Lu will be yet another step up from the likes of Goffin or Kukushkin and I just cannot see him getting past the world's number fifty-four here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lu-vs-kuznetsov-betting-yen-hsun-lu-to-beat-alex-kuznetsov-with-minimal-fuss

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Alex Bogomolov Jr. to beat Kei Nishikori @ 8.60 Betfair Bogomolov has gone off the radar after getting up into the top 50 in the rankings a couple of years ago, but he still has it within him to spring a surprise here. He played Nishikori in this tournament a few years back and took a set, and I'm not sure Nishikori looks all that great right now. The Japanese was broken repeatedly by Becker in his first match of this tournament, and I don't think that is a good sign on indoor hard. Bogomolov can be quite temperamental, but he looks up for the fight this week and seems to be playing reasonably well and so this might be the time to side with him at a big price.

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Albert Ramos to beat David Ferrer @ 10.00 Betfair I'm prepared to go against Ferrer again, even though he has managed to get past both Gonzalez and Giraldo when not at his best. It's possible he will do the same again here against Ramos, but if that is the way the match pans out I definitely would not want to back him at such a short price. The way Ferrer is struggling at the moment reminds me of his performances in Auckland at the start of the year, where he stumbled through his first two matches before his form finally caught up with him and he was beaten in the last four. The price on Ramos might be about right if Ferrer was playing well, but as he clearly isn't and even though Ramos is no world beater it's the lesser known Spaniard for me in this match.

[Banner]

Re: February 10 - February 16

Back Yen-hsun Lu (-3) to beat Alex Kuznetsov for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Pinnacle Yen-hsun Lu has basically made a living out of these challenger-level matches, so I fancy him to win this with something to spare. Kuznetsov has been playing well in recent days, but Lu will be yet another step up from the likes of Goffin or Kukushkin and I just cannot see him getting past the world's number fifty-four here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lu-vs-kuznetsov-betting-yen-hsun-lu-to-beat-alex-kuznetsov-with-minimal-fuss

Hope your right took him @ 22/1 at the start of the tournament!

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16

What about Bryan/Bryan against Guccione/Hewit?Odds is 1,20 on my local,is this banker for high stakes?Thanks!

Nothing is a banker when Hewitt is involved and who knows how motivated the Bryans are in such a small tournament.

[Metaphor]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Have been watching quite a few matches from ATP Memphis this week and boy you just gotta admire this Michael Russell. Guy is like what, 36 years old but still runs like a rabbit and fights like a lion. Such an inspiration, many of the younger generation players would have a lot to learn from him. Then you have guys like Lacko, Young or Vesely who, in this tournament at least, just totally gave up when either having lost a lead or being down a set. Russell on the other hand was down 3-6, 0-3 against Przysiezny but fought his way back to win the match. Today versus Hewitt he was a break up two times in the second set and served for the match at 5-4 - only to be broken. Then had a *6-4 on tiebreak but blew it. However, he didn't let the choke affect him, kept his cool and took the tiebreak 8-6. As CzechPunter put it, this guy plays his heart out everytime he steps on court. Now you may wonder, why did I bring this up. Well, I tend to bet game/set handicaps and one thing I always consider besides skill difference, surface, h2h etc. is mentality. Whilst I do back players like Fognini/Monfils at times, I stay away from the handicaps as these guys frequently throw the towel against the big names and are more than capable of losing a set 0-6 against lesser players in a match they end up winning 'comfortably'. Another name that comes to my mind is David Ferrer. It isn't often you see the Spaniard not giving everything he has got. It's easy to trust money on these kind of players, even if they lose because you would know they most likely made their best effort. Nothing quite as frustrating as some loser completely giving up and ruining your bet. So my point is, always take the players mentality into account when betting the handicaps. This might be old news for the veteran punters here, but some less experienced guys could use the information. And that's why we are here for - to share information, right? :)

[Metaphor]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Igor Sijsling @ 2.03 Unibet Cilic 2-0, big time. I've watched all of his matches this tournament, he is just on another level right now. He didn't drop a set in Zagreb and hasn't done so here, only lost serve once vs Dodig and immediately broke back. He is flowing with confidence. If Murray couldn't break him, Sijsling won't either. Cilic is too strong on serve and solid enough on return and from the baseline for the Dutch. Yes, Sisjling has played convincingly this week but I woudn't emphasize those wins too much, Cilic is much tougher task at the moment than Youzhny, Berrer or Kohli. I think part of the reason Sijsling has looked so good is that he has been able to attack most of the time, which will not be the case against Cilic. The onehanded backhand of Sijsling will be vulnerable once he is forced on defence.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Nicolas Almagro (+4.5) to beat David Ferrer for a 7/10 stake at 1.95 with Pinnacle One good result from David Ferrer isn't enough to convince me about him being back to his best, so I fancy Almagro to cover this handicap line. After all, he beat Jeremy Chardy without too many struggles and that is certainly a good sign. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/almagro-vs-ferrer-betting-nicolas-almagro-can-cover-the-handicap-line-against-ferrer

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Back Marin Cilic (-3.5) to beat Igor Sijsling for a 7/10 stake at 1.94 with Pinnacle This doesn't look like an even match to me and I fancy Cilic to take it with something to spare. Sijsling is just way too one-dimensional and, even though the conditions in Rotterdam do suit his playing style, I think that Cilic will be able to take advantage of his weakness and cover this handicap line. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cilic-vs-sijsling-betting-the-in-form-croat-can-win-yet-another-match-in-rotterdam

[Banner]

Re: February 10 - February 16 ATP Rotterdam M.Cilic v I.Sijsling This match features Marin Cilic ranked 37th on the ATP and he faces Igor Sijsling ranked 64th on the ATP tour. Yesterday Sijsling did take a medical time out after the 2nd set against Kohlschreiber for a shoulder injury therefore Sijsling may not be 100% today. Cilic is in superb form winning 8 matches in a row without losing a single set. These wins have been against some decent players as well! He has beat the likes of Dodig, Haas, Tsonga and Murray which shows how well he is playing. In this 8 matches he has not even been close to losing a set and has not played one tie break. Cilic has a very good indoor record winning 67% of his ATP tour indoor matches. This includes winning 5 titles where as Sijsling has never Won a ATP tour title. Sijsling was playing in a Challenger tour event a couple of weeks ago which shows Cilic is a level above him in terms of quality, you would certainly not see Cilic playing a Challenger tour event. Last week in Zagreb Sijsling dropped a set against Kavcic and then went onto lose against A.Kuznetsov you would expect him to beat both of these players who are not in the greatest of form right now therefore I expect him to struggle against Cilic. The head to head reads 2-0 to Cilic despite him dropping a set on both occasions. He is playing much better now than he was when he beat Sijsling in Paris last year. Cilic should really win this 2-0 especially if Sijsling is struggling with his shoulder. Recommended Bet: 4 Units Cilic 2-0 v Sijsling – Pinnacle @ 1.962 For the sake of all of us I hope Cilic wins 2-0 I like your tip on Almagro +4.5 games Czech, I was also going to tip that. Seems a long line considering Ferrer is not playing great!

[Torque]

Re: February 10 - February 16 Michael Russell to beat Kei Nishikori @ 6.80 Betfair I agree with what has been said about Russell, and he looks like a man inspired at the moment. He was down and out against Przysiezny in the first round and managed to come back, and getting the better of Hewitt in his last match in straight sets is a good achievement. I've been opposing Nishikori all week, and even though he has managed to win both of his matches he has had his difficulties along the way. He dropped the first set against Bogomolov in the last round, and against a more consistent and stable player he might have been beaten. Like Ferrer last night in Buenos Aires, this could be the match where Nishikori returns to form, but based on what has taken place so far this week I like the look of the American veteran to continue his run in this tournament.