Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur (13:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.98[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.62[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.06 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[sajtion]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd i think things are going to get worse for tottenham without manager. southampton have shown their credentials this season and home win looks good and final result maybe 2-1

[infinity]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd I don't think things are going to get a lot worse for Spurs, but I wouldn't bet on them against S'oton either. I would go for the over 2.5 for this one and may the best team win.

[kevshat]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd 4pts Southampton to beat Tottenham 8/5 Stan James One thing Southampton do have is plenty of attacking personnel who can cause Tottenham problems and if the Southampton backline revert back to being as tight as they were earlier in the season then Spurs will have a few issues here. Spurs don’t look like keeping a clean sheet at the minute so the likes of Lambert, Lallana, Rodriguez and Osvaldo will be rubbing their hands together with glee. The Saints can have too much for Spurs here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/southampton-vs-tottenham-betting-southampton-can-exploit-the-spurs-backline-at-st-marys

[chuda]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd i like saints @ 2.50 at home, sounds nice to me, 10 % of my betting fund, with paddypower.... only thing that spurs are better is on paper and expectation wise, otherwise they are in worth place in their season - the interim, isn`t one who will gone glue them and inspire here, they won`t sweat trough blood for common goal or believe here, don`t think they got their vision back, they even don`t know which striker to play out of 3 atm, missing townsend to carry ball with pace and wide for an away game, even westham beat them for second time ... saints play pretty much as liverpool, pressing high in numbers and try to retain lost ball straight away,high dinamics right now is that spurs will find hard to cope, especially then you are in a middle of ,playing style, change, they found hard away to teams like fulham and sunderland who plays slow game. southampton done really well of late... drawing with high flying newcastle away, and almost winning man city at home.. all in all saints at home @ 2.50....i`ll give a go

[cambroia]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd If betting is finding value on odds, then i cant miss Tottenham at 3.15 this time. Southampton was great in the first 10 matches, but i think they are at the right spot at the moment. the 9th place fits them properly. On the other hand, Tottenham will keep fighting for the top 4 no matter what. I still dont understand why Villas Boas was sacked, spurs fans dont understand. Tottenham lost two games at home that probably shouldn´t, against Newcastle and West Ham. But on the other hand they drew against Chelsea and Man Utd. Next week they host WBA and Stoke before the travel to Old Trafford. If they win tomorrow and the next two matches at home, as City, United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea all play each other in the next week, Spurs can easily climb to the place where they belong. I think bookies are biased by the sack of Villas Boas, the fact that Southampton created a huge impact for being promoted last season and for the likes of Lallana, Rodriguez and Lambert being capped for England. Southampton has been great? Yes.. But Tottenham is still one of the best 3 teams away from home with 5 victories. I predict an open match. Southampton will try to take advantage of this so called bad period of Tottenham. But if Spurs plays at their level, no way Southampton can upset them. The Saints only failed to score twice this season, but i cant see Tottenham failing to score tomorrow. I think there will be goals for both teams and a Spurs win. Im with: Tottenham +0.25 1.86 Pinnacle Over 2.5 2.06 Pinnacle Small punts on Tottenham to win 3.16 Pinnacle Tottenham -1.5 6.25 888sport GL

[neilovan]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Yesterday I wrote a program that looks at all the HTFT combinations.draw-win win-win etc. I was looking for any patterns, and I wanted to see leaders in Europe and the Premier league in this category. Away from home this season Fenerbache are the best in Europe in this category. In HT/FT draw win, they have done this 4 times in 7 away games for 57% Tottenham have done this 4 times in 8 away games, 2nd best (with 4 other teams at 50%) In their last 3 away games SPurs have done this twice. Last season in 19 games spurs were draw-win away 5 times for 26% If the bookmakers are pricing this at 7 to 1, (implied odds of 12.5%) surely this must represent a decent bet ? Any opinion is welcomed regarding taking this bet ..... I will take it for 1 unit

[west64]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd If the value is there, then its worth a punt i guess. I would just disagree with cambroia, as we can find huge value in many games, but they just end as expected. I would focus on reducing risk, thats my tactic usualy. Odds alone cant represent value, if the team is in disarray.. This game has all the prospects of a decent draw (1:1) IMO. But I will back Soton on this one. The away games which saw Spurs win, were mostly against cracked opposition, and they have yet to play a top tier team away. Their current run doesnt look it will end soon, as they have quite a few players who might miss this match (Townsend, Kaboul, Kane, Sandro, Verthongen... with Paulinho being suspended if im correct) And with Sherwood being the temp, i am not really confident he can overturn the tides in the first match, especialy harder so given the form and confidence Soton is showing at home ground. Couple of absentees for home team, but i am sure they will compensate. I will try to work out the best bets for me in this game, because i believe there is a fine profit to be made here. Bets which drew my attention: Southampton DNB @ 1.72 (bet365) DRAW @ 3.4 (bet365) Southampton or Draw @ 1.40 (bet365) over 2.5 @ 2.00 BTTS @ 1.72 (bet365) Ofcourse the tendency in my bets is for Soton to grab a result, but I will probably go for DNB with btts going into sundays accu. Still looking into it.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd As a punter, Tottenham at a clean 3.2 on matchbook (0% commission) is a distinct bet of value Their problems are open for all to see but in a tight game, 3.20 is crazy against a Southampton side that looks to be losing their early season momentum I could waffle on more, but I'd rate spurs at at least 33% likely to get the win at 3.00 for 4% value. If you are using betfair, you are halving your LR profits.

[chuda]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

Yesterday I wrote a program that looks at all the HTFT combinations.draw-win win-win etc. Tottenham have done this 4 times in 8 away games, 2nd best (with 4 other teams at 50%) In their last 3 away games SPurs have done this twice. Last season in 19 games spurs were draw-win away 5 times for 26% If the bookmakers are pricing this at 7 to 1, (implied odds of 12.5%) surely this must represent a decent bet ? Any opinion is welcomed regarding taking this bet ....

i think it`s all interesting stuff you done there, just thought i`ll add.... when you do your average calculations, you are taking `all teams` played..... i think you have to narrow it to - the `same kind of opposition` played. let`s say if you do this calculation in la liga for barca...... 19 away games - 17 of those oppositons will come out as win/win and then when they are playing real m or atletico results will be draw / draw or something for example ... so let`s say barca meeting atletico tomorrow, you hit in your stats and its says barca away chance to get win/win is ~ 95 % so it might mislead a bit, i think you should try what will come out if you will hit in spurs vs top half table away record in only... Spurs have faced top half opposition eight times this season but have managed only one win – a 1-0 win over Swansea – while in all four defeats they failed to score and conceded 13 in the process.

[KavkaZ]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Someone may find this a risky bet , because Tottenham and Southampton proven at the start as defensive teams, but do not rush to sprinkle ashes , impression about these commands, false , but first things first. Tottenham after 0-5 defeat at home to Liverpool was left without head coach, interim steering appointed Tim Sherwood, who has already lose to West Ham in the League Cup. As regards the form of spurs , the last 6 games 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeat that was thrown team to 8th place (after yesterday's victory Man Utd). Form Southampton worse: 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses that team was thrown from third place on the 9th . Now back to the beginning of our expectations.. Some would say that both of these teams defensive and little miss , but it's all in the past. Yes, Tottenham missed only 5 goals in the opening 10 meetings , but then , in the last 6 team received 16 (!). Southampton in the starting 11 meetings conceded just 5 goals , but in the last 5 games 10 (!). December matches Southampton: Chelsea - Southampton 2:1 Southampton - Aston Villa 2:3 Southampton - Manchester City 1:1 Newcastle - Southampton 1:1 December matches Tottenham: Tottenham - Man Utd 2:2 Fulham - Tottenham 1:2 Sunderland - Tottenham 1:2 Tottenham - Anzhi 4:1 Tottenham - Liverpool 0:5 Tottenham - West Ham 1:2 Reports morning at the official website of the Premier League hosts outside the main goalkeeper Boruc (13/0) , defender Kline (12/0) and defensive midfielder Wanyama (14/0). The guests cannot count on Vertonghen (14/0) , Kabul (3/0) , midfielders Thousand (14/1) and Paulinho (16/2 ). Both teams before this meeting have problems in defense. In general , it is difficult to imagine that at least one of the teams will take the field without a goal scored. Put on both to score with William Hill , odds 1.80

[chuda]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

As a punter, Tottenham at a clean 3.2 on matchbook (0% commission) is a distinct bet of value Their problems are open for all to see but in a tight game, 3.20 is crazy against a Southampton side that looks to be losing their early season momentum I could waffle on more, but I'd rate spurs at at least 33% likely to get the win at 3.00 for 4% value. If you are using betfair, you are halving your LR profits.

i don`t understand how you calculate that spurs @ 3.2 is crazy value.... to me, let`s say... on this sunday , with the same circumstances , these teams will meet 10 x ...how many times you think spurs will win? to make this bet value spurs would have to beat on this day 4 x out of those 10 games to make you a sure profit so it could be called a value! 4 x 3.2 = 12.8 .... 10 bets 1 unit @ 3.2 ... you really have to believe that they will do it 4 out of ten then. because i dont see it that way, if you take that spurs on "this sunday" isn`t flying high, missing they 3 best players... vertongten, paulinho, townsend... + more 2nd option missings, no stability of late... i would say best value is for draw @ 3.3 - 3.4 ... because if 3 of those meetings will end up in a draw .. you`ll get at least your money back , any more and you in profit... and i would say between these two 10 games could produce somewhere between 3 - 5 draws. so that`s my maths, that`s why i am asking you how you do it :)

[Hutcho_CFC]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Probably the most clear draw i have seen. Tottenham are better on paper, but in some turmoil. And southampton have home advantage and are overperforming. Looks like a draw all over. 12/5 B365 10/10.

[NeedForSpeed]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Spurs haven't kept a clean sheet in the league since beginning of Nov when they drew 0-0 with Everton and I can't see them getting one today. Just seeing the team they have put out today - Tim has handed Adebayor and I think Lamela's first PL start of the season and Eriksson is back in the team. They have put an attacking team out and at away to Southampton I can see them condeding atleast 2. Southampton over 1.5 goals 6/5 @ Bet365

[Aidymac]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Spurs problem this season for me was not the players, they have a strong squad. The problem was the manager, far too cautious and could not do the simple things correct. You cannot play 4-5-1 at home and expect to win games, he was too afraid of losing. Sherwood is playing 4-4-2 today, bringing Adebayor back, I think we will see some decent Spurs performances in the coming weeks with them having 2 strikers on the pitch. However, Southampton are a good side, I think today will also be a draw! Draw @ 5/2 Bet365 Correct Score 1-1 @ 13/2 Betfred First Goalscorer Adebayor @ 8/1 Ladbrokes

[kulikTS]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Agree with you. Good chance to break the home of the Saints. The hosts are playing really well at home, an offensive ball always pays off. In recent games Roosters is only a name, not a team, they do not know too much what to play. Died recently Soldado what affects their weaker offensive game. HW @ 2,55 in my local 5/10

[thecurlyone1]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Ill take Soton @ 2.5 , Spurs in a bit of bother at the moment and their record away to the saints ( 5-0-1 ) from last 6 is not that clever on a side note both sides have won 63% of the asian handicap ( home & away respectively )

[ThusPrider]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

i don`t understand how you calculate that spurs @ 3.2 is crazy value.... to me, let`s say... on this sunday , with the same circumstances , these teams will meet 10 x ...how many times you think spurs will win? to make this bet value spurs would have to beat on this day 4 x out of those 10 games to make you a sure profit so it could be called a value! 4 x 3.2 = 12.8 .... 10 bets 1 unit @ 3.2 ... you really have to believe that they will do it 4 out of ten then. because i dont see it that way, if you take that spurs on "this sunday" isn`t flying high, missing they 3 best players... vertongten, paulinho, townsend... + more 2nd option missings, no stability of late... i would say best value is for draw @ 3.3 - 3.4 ... because if 3 of those meetings will end up in a draw .. you`ll get at least your money back , any more and you in profit... and i would say between these two 10 games could produce somewhere between 3 - 5 draws. so that`s my maths, that`s why i am asking you how you do it :)

Feel free to take my back with your lay at 3.2. As predicted, odds on the exchanges just dropped below 3.00 immediately before KO which usually reflects match odds very well. Your rough divisions and wins out of 10 can be an acceptable opinion, however there is a huge difference between 3 wins out of 10 and 4 wins out of 10. Dealing with percentages out of 100 is far more appropriate. To illustrate, 3 wins out of 10 = (10-3)/3 = 7/3 fractional, 3.334 decimal, whilst 4 wins out of 10 required would give (10-4)/4 = 6/4 at 2.500. There is an absolute gulf between 3.334 and 2.500. At the end of the day, you have to admit the bookies have the odds more or less correct. Your estimation of the value ranges against the traders and the entire market is a difficult battle for you. You'd do well to get 2-3% out of the market. This means backing at 2.600 true odds against your perceived odds of 6/4 (33%) likely for a team to win. To enlighten you further, most times I trade out most of my bet if I had it on the exchanges. Usually trading out will lose you an margin unless you queue, which really is only viable via betfair with mugs around. You'll never get your queued bets matched on low commission exchanges such as smarkets or matchbook as there are simply no mugs about to munch it. Your lay is purely dependent on the betfair price as smarkets drifts in parallel. If your queue to lay at 2.58 matches, its likely the market has moved to that price anyway. But, if you think that the odds are too short, and you trust yourself to have a margin over the market and traders (thats why we bet to make money?), you'd still trade out. As said earlier, I backed Tottenham to win at 3.200 on matchbook giving them a 33% chance at 3.00. The trade price shortened to 2.940 in which I traded out my bet of £2400 as it fell below my estimation (which stayed unchanged after the teamsheets). I made £160 exactly from my bet of £2400 and that is a very good margin to get out of a bet of £2400 at nearly 7%. If you are betting perhaps £100 a game hoping to make a profit, I can tell you you'd never get serious with betting. Even the best of punters with inside info will probably give themselves a 5% margin, meaning LR profits will equal 5% of total stake. If you want to make lets say £100 a day from betting, you'd be looking at £2000 of bets a day at least. This makes betfair's 5% commission look huge unless you are trading, and I can guarantee you that nobody can make a profit tanking 5% commission on betfair. Of course, due to deviation, your profit/losses will fluctuate greatly but should even out in the LR in the margins as said above. Years ago I dream't of making money betting on football, but it is extremely difficult to say the least.

[chuda]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd all right... :) never even knew or have been looking at those trading and exchange stuff.. get you completely and see your value there. i don`t relay my life income on betting alone, as my strategy is not based on 5 season run, + / - 5 % in differences, and price swings. for me it`s simple... have well established betting fund, since i finally established good strategy, cut out most mistakes punters does and i was doing :D and relay only on knowledge of epl. i haven`t topped up my betting fund for 3 years now,keeping it around 4 digit nr., and mainly go for idea of bets roughly ~ @ evens, lets say 20 bets in a week, somewhere ~ 10 % of mu betting fund for bet every time. i hit 10 - 12 on average of them and i am having after weekend ~ 0 - 20 % of it. i am good with that extra... for pub and peanuts :) so for me to keep going is simple ... even though spurs are trashing saints right now, i would not relay my bet on them today because i wouldn`t give them 4 wins out of 10 on this day :) neither was value on saints either... as you said, bookies compile well those odds to barely ever be "value" . i simply go for simple strikes at ok odds and hope to do ok strike rate. yes i have weeks - 20 % even had - 40 % after weekend, but it just shortens my bet stake next time... as i hit 12 out of 20 on average per last 3 seasons i keep floating and have my share time at time... if i ever to lose my job :D or ever to switch to betting as my first income, i would never relay on my system... would definitely looked into trading stuff only or would get another job :D i think what you do there is more proper way and great play today :) , but not for me... it`s takes joy out of football and winning taste of pint and peanuts , well sometimes bitter beer and salted peanuts is all right :) hope you`ll have a good run this Christmas :)

[XplosiveInc]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

Yesterday I wrote a program that looks at all the HTFT combinations.draw-win win-win etc. I was looking for any patterns, and I wanted to see leaders in Europe and the Premier league in this category. Away from home this season Fenerbache are the best in Europe in this category. In HT/FT draw win, they have done this 4 times in 7 away games for 57% Tottenham have done this 4 times in 8 away games, 2nd best (with 4 other teams at 50%) In their last 3 away games SPurs have done this twice. Last season in 19 games spurs were draw-win away 5 times for 26% If the bookmakers are pricing this at 7 to 1, (implied odds of 12.5%) surely this must represent a decent bet ? Any opinion is welcomed regarding taking this bet ..... I will take it for 1 unit

One of the best posts with very decent reasoning! Helped me decide on both the Spurs and Fenerbache games today! Cheers Neil...

[cambroia]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

Tottenham +0.25 1.86 Pinnacle Over 2.5 2.06 Pinnacle Small punts on Tottenham to win 3.16 Pinnacle Tottenham -1.5 6.25 888sport GL

Unfortunate not to win the -1.5. This is what betting is all about!

[MPLouis]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

If you want to make lets say £100 a day from betting' date=' you'd be looking at £2000 of bets a day at least. This makes betfair's 5% commission look huge[/quote'] I think Betfair commission is only payable on profit though?

[ThusPrider]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

I think Betfair commission is only payable on profit though?

Yes that's correct It would depend slightly on the odds also, but presuming taking selections at evens, you have 50% chance to pay 5% commission without any reductions, which is 2.5%. You can think of it as paying 5% commission on £1000 of winning bets 5% at evens = £50 or £2000 2.5% implied which is also £50. Your target of £100 is being cut in half purely by betfair fees

[MPLouis]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

Yes that's correct It would depend slightly on the odds also, but presuming taking selections at evens, you have 50% chance to pay 5% commission without any reductions, which is 2.5%. You can think of it as paying 5% commission on £1000 of winning bets 5% at evens = £50 or £2000 2.5% implied which is also £50. Your target of £100 is being cut in half purely by betfair fees

I might have this completely wrong, but if you win £100 profit from Betfair, and they charge 5% commission, then surely their cut is £5, leaving you with £95?

[Aidymac]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

I might have this completely wrong' date=' but if you win £100 profit from Betfair, and they charge 5% commission, then surely their cut is £5, leaving you with £95?[/quote'] You are charged commission on all winning bets, not just profit.

[MPLouis]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

You are charged commission on all winning bets' date=' not just profit.[/quote'] Yes but I think the commission is charged on net profit (not turnover). This is taken from Betfair's site: ================================ Example: You have net winnings in a market of £400. The Market Base Rate is 5%. Your current Discount Rate is 40%. Therefore the commission you pay is £12 (£400 x 5% x (1-40%)). You earn 120 Betfair Points. http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/ ================================ In the above example, your net winnings are £400, and you pay £12 commission because you've earned a 40% discount off the normal 5% rate, which would be £20.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd £100 of net profit in a market equals £5 of commission presuming the base 5% commission. You'd do well to get over 30% discount rate to bring the commission to closer to 3% but that is still huge. I hope this doesn't get too complicated. My point about setting a presumed target of £100 a day varies depending on a lot of factors. I said to hit £100 a day, you'd be needing to place something like £2000 worth of bets, giving you a 5% edge on the market. However, the average odds and average bet size can be difficult to model statistically, but there is an difference. Presuming you made 2000 bets at evens on betfair of £1, 1000 of them wins, 1000 of them loses. You'd lose £1000 on the 1000 losing bets, getting betfair points for implied commission but losing nothing more. You'd have to pay 5% commission on the £1000 of profit from the other 1000 bets, which equals 5% of £1000 = £50. This suggests that as a punter you break even on all of your selections, but are losing because betfair is charging you £50 commission. To overcome that commission, you will need to win around 1026 bets at evens, meaning you lose 974 at evens, again giving a total of 2000 bets of £1 = £2000 total stake. You pay £51.3 commission on your £1026 of profit = £974.7 after commission. Take away your 974 of losing bets at £1 and you make a profit of £0.70. There are other things that can throw a spanner in the works because of the way statistics works. To enlighten you or perhaps confuse you further; If you had placed 2000 bets of £1 at 1999/1 each, you won't be looking at a long term return of 1000 wins and 1000 losses as a break even punter. You'd be looking at 1 win and 1999 losses being a break even punter. However, you lose £1999 on your losing bets, but your one big win at 1999/1 returns a total profit of £1999. However, instead of being charged commission on £1000 of wins, you are tanking commission on £1999 of wins, which equals a total profit after commission of £1891.45 as 5% of 1999 is £99.45, nearly double the amount you'd pay in the earlier case. It'll never quite reach £100, unless you make an infinity of bets at infinitely small sizes at near infinity odds... which f*cks up maths because anything finite multiplied a win at infinite odds will give you an infinite return. I've waffled on too much here, but ill post it anyway, feel free to not read it

[ThusPrider]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd I have earned over 200,000 betfair points in total, and at a rate of 10 points per £1 of 'commission' you pay, its fair to say that I've paid over £10,000 in commission alone in betfair. (not £20,000 as whoever won my money on my losing bets had to tank the commission but I got points anyway for implied commission.) You can all see your accumulated commission if you add up your current betfair points along with your weekly decay if you can be bothered to see how much betfair has charged you to use the site. I've probably paid more in the other exchanges too. If you are familiar with the depth of scrutiny I go through to squeeze every 0.5% of value out of my bets you'd know. 0.5% may not seem like alot, but I've seen mugs take prices up to 5% worse than what they can get. Its fine if you're having a good time sticking one on the footy, but if you're serious about betting and making sustained profits you'd agree an extra 0.5% out of your winning bets is alot. In my prime I used to make bets of over £10,000 and £20,000 in total on busy days, over £20m of bets placed over 8-9 months. That extra 0.5% return on my winning bets would see at least £5,000 of long term profits. These figures are scary, and is ultimately what made my give up my blog and betting, even though I'm in good profit. The swings in deviation are huge and you are struggling in a uphill race. My skills will probably see me earn more money as a trader with a major bookie.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Lastly, to give you an example of what I said earlier about getting an extra 0.1% even out of your bets, here was a question I asked in "The Mug Test" section of my blog: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp B - Back overs 1.98 C - Lay unders 2.02 D - Doesn't matter at all Answer: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp - 0 points B - Back overs 1.98 - 0 points C - Lay unders 2.02 - 5 points D - Doesn't matter at all - 0 points Some may not know this, presuming 0% commission, backing overs at 1.98 = odds of 1.98, but laying unders of 2.02 = backing overs at 1.9804. Should there be 5% commission, the ratio is still the same. Backing at 1.98 = 1.931, laying 2.02 = backing at 1.9804 = 1.93138 at 5% commission. Though it may seem minor, it is common in Betfair and takes no effort to use the lay market rather than the back market. It may take some maths to work out the actual odds, but you can test it out next time to find such a market on Betfair.

[chuda]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd well i am not into that much scrutiny of all these 0.1 % killing ya... but as i finished business administration school in latvia, i agree it`s a lot... i remember latvian bank manager was giving one lecture, and he mention "john`s dollar" if you ever heard about it... it`s like 1 dollar every months in your bank earns you 0.1 % .... blaaah blaah.... in century you are milliner :D i cam across it too trough years of playing... sometimes extra fiver or free bet... makes it 100 ... just because as a punter you go for a high odds risk... but if you get it and keep roll over trough years .. that o.1 % or 5 euro free bet can be the one what did it . i just don`t get it your were so easy to give up on that bit?! "(These figures are scary, and is ultimately what made my give up my blog and betting, even though I'm in good profit. The swings in deviation are huge and you are struggling in a uphill race. My skills will probably see me earn more money as a trader with a major bookie.)" those are bookies, and you are not new Archimedes to beat them on a maths :) doesn`t matter how you look at it, they price calculation is simple basics of bookies existence... it`s not because they are predicting best odds for outcome... it`s because they settlement - or for their odds ... or market swing... what swings along on money been put in. does them that profit... nothing to complain here:D that`s why i work in different area, because you are against maths and rules you cannot overcome, that`s an uphill to me.... talking about trying to squeeze water out of rock. i just wanted to ask a question... what if that day you bought spurs @ 3.20..... for 2600 what if team would got a bug on that day? price go up.... they lose..... where it leaves you... 0.1 % x 0.1 % x 0.1 % ......10 years later.... 0 ?!