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ThusPrider

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About ThusPrider

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/22/1990
  1. Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th It has been a long time since I've had a healthy sized bet on. Having watched all the games this world cup, and with much success in the later rounds, I feel confident enough to give a tip for the final. It is going to be a very difficult final for the Argentines, with the Germans being high on confidence, having an extra day's rest as well as Argentina enduring ET and penalties, its clear to see that the Germans will be favourites for the World Cup. Their outright 90 minutes win has been trading at around 2.3-2.4ish on the
  2. Re: Semi-Final - Netherlands v Argentina > Wednesday July 9th Simple value bet for me is to lay Argentina at around 2.46-5ish with matchbook/smarkets Netherlands +0.5 may drift to a better price on the AH markets but is currently short against 1/2% commission of matchbook and smarkets respectively; offered by pinnacle. I rated the Argentines to be a more delicate favourite because of the quality of their squad, at perhaps 2.68. The Netherlands have been through more in this WC and will be difficult to beat, having overcome deficits many times against Spain, Mexico Australia etc. It w
  3. Re: Semi-Final - Netherlands v Argentina > Wednesday July 9th I can see ladbrokes are 18/5 11/2 on the score draw probably didnt last long
  4. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd I'll just have to "tank" the losses as I call it. I make a lot of bets which helps smooth deviation out. But that's betting isn't it? You just have to pick more winners at better odds than the market, of course you're always going to lose some, but thats not relevant for your betting future. Its if you think the losing bet is worth it, or have you completely misjudged the odds?
  5. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Lastly, to give you an example of what I said earlier about getting an extra 0.1% even out of your bets, here was a question I asked in "The Mug Test" section of my blog: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp B - Back overs 1.98 C - Lay unders 2.02 D - Doesn't matter at all Answer: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp - 0 points B
  6. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd I have earned over 200,000 betfair points in total, and at a rate of 10 points per £1 of 'commission' you pay, its fair to say that I've paid over £10,000 in commission alone in betfair. (not £20,000 as whoever won my money on my losing bets had to tank the commission but I got points anyway for implied commission.) You can all see your accumulated commission if you add up your current betfair points along with your weekly decay if you can be bothered to see how much betfair has charged you to use the site. I've probably pa
  7. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd £100 of net profit in a market equals £5 of commission presuming the base 5% commission. You'd do well to get over 30% discount rate to bring the commission to closer to 3% but that is still huge. I hope this doesn't get too complicated. My point about setting a presumed target of £100 a day varies depending on a lot of factors. I said to hit £100 a day, you'd be needing to place something like £2000 worth of bets, giving you a 5% edge on the market. However, the average odds and average bet size can be difficult to model
  8. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Yes that's correct It would depend slightly on the odds also, but presuming taking selections at evens, you have 50% chance to pay 5% commission without any reductions, which is 2.5%. You can think of it as paying 5% commission on £1000 of winning bets 5% at evens = £50 or £2000 2.5% implied which is also £50. Your target of £100 is being cut in half purely by betfair fees
  9. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Feel free to take my back with your lay at 3.2. As predicted, odds on the exchanges just dropped below 3.00 immediately before KO which usually reflects match odds very well. Your rough divisions and wins out of 10 can be an acceptable opinion, however there is a huge difference between 3 wins out of 10 and 4 wins out of 10. Dealing with percentages out of 100 is far more appropriate. To illustrate, 3 wins out of 10 = (10-3)/3 = 7/3 fractional, 3.334 decimal, whilst 4 wins out of 10 required would give (10-4)/4 = 6/4 at
  10. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd As a punter, Tottenham at a clean 3.2 on matchbook (0% commission) is a distinct bet of value Their problems are open for all to see but in a tight game, 3.20 is crazy against a Southampton side that looks to be losing their early season momentum I could waffle on more, but I'd rate spurs at at least 33% likely to get the win at 3.00 for 4% value. If you are using betfair, you are halving your LR profits.
  11. Re: Swansea City v Everton > Sunday December 22nd Everton have won over many neutrals this season. Whilst myself would like to see them get a win and continue their marvelous form for the top 4, around 2.50 at best is very thin for any value indeed. Everton would really need to dig in to get all 3 points like against Fulham. The 4 - 1 scoreline was flattering, as Fulham could have easily nicked a draw in a game Everton were below 1.5 to get the win. Swansea +0.25 at around 1.900 is the value
  12. Re: Are these Strange odds ? I'm no expert in the Irish second division, but all outright odds are usually produced by factoring in the remaining fixtures and taking the aggregate odds of all the combinations of them finishing the league in first position, or any of the other teams managing to produce something special to take first spot. I'd go have a look at the remaining fixtures.
  13. Re: Last 16 > Real Madrid v Manchester United > Wed 13th February I could say anything offering above evens is "optimistic" as its unlikely to occur. Taking independent odds of it staying 0 - 0 after 75 minutes will be around ~12/1, Utd to score in exactly the 75th minute will probably be around 60/1 (using odds of 1.500 of Utd to score with Pinnacle), then squeezing a precise 3 - 2 scoreline in the 15 minutes that remains will probably be closer to 600/1. Combined thats close to 500,000/1 Though the odds may still not be completely independent broken into elements, I won't b
  14. Re: Last 16 > Real Madrid v Manchester United > Wed 13th February 0 - 0 after 75 minutes, Utd to score in the 75th minute and FS 3 - 2 to Madrid You heard it here first
  15. Re: West Ham v Chelsea > Sat 1st December Unders feels like a good choice given the circumstances, though in a game such as this and particularly the rather ungenerous under evens odds make this bet feel extremely vulnerable
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