Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

[ThusPrider]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

well i am not into that much scrutiny of all these 0.1 % killing ya... but as i finished business administration school in latvia, i agree it`s a lot... i remember latvian bank manager was giving one lecture, and he mention "john`s dollar" if you ever heard about it... it`s like 1 dollar every months in your bank earns you 0.1 % .... blaaah blaah.... in century you are milliner :D i cam across it too trough years of playing... sometimes extra fiver or free bet... makes it 100 ... just because as a punter you go for a high odds risk... but if you get it and keep roll over trough years .. that o.1 % or 5 euro free bet can be the one what did it . i just don`t get it your were so easy to give up on that bit?! "(These figures are scary, and is ultimately what made my give up my blog and betting, even though I'm in good profit. The swings in deviation are huge and you are struggling in a uphill race. My skills will probably see me earn more money as a trader with a major bookie.)" those are bookies, and you are not new Archimedes to beat them on a maths :) doesn`t matter how you look at it, they price calculation is simple basics of bookies existence... it`s not because they are predicting best odds for outcome... it`s because they settlement - or for their odds ... or market swing... what swings along on money been put in. does them that profit... nothing to complain here:D that`s why i work in different area, because you are against maths and rules you cannot overcome, that`s an uphill to me.... talking about trying to squeeze water out of rock. i just wanted to ask a question... what if that day you bought spurs @ 3.20..... for 2600 what if team would got a bug on that day? price go up.... they lose..... where it leaves you... 0.1 % x 0.1 % x 0.1 % ......10 years later.... 0 ?!

I'll just have to "tank" the losses as I call it. I make a lot of bets which helps smooth deviation out. But that's betting isn't it? You just have to pick more winners at better odds than the market, of course you're always going to lose some, but thats not relevant for your betting future. Its if you think the losing bet is worth it, or have you completely misjudged the odds?

[chuda]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd well it`s true :) ... just saying, you must of have Huge fund if you can write of loos like that... me risk management only shortens my next bet amount... i lost 2 x 10 % bet on saints and spurs... that makes me for boxing day, my 10 % bet go from 124 to 109 ... as a punter i hope i`ll hit it right thursday ... a like fixtures there :) just saying... i don`t think you have much back up in trading ... lets say what if credit crunch hits ya ? :D i mean like.... i have gone 5 in a row misses... it halved my fund and next bet, and took a time with some good calls on average to reestablish it, but what happens if you make a 5 wrong calls? do you lose 5 digit number? don`t get me wrong, and i hope you don`t find me annoying to keep going about this theme ... it just pure learning for options and understanding :)

[cambroia]

Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

Lastly, to give you an example of what I said earlier about getting an extra 0.1% even out of your bets, here was a question I asked in "The Mug Test" section of my blog: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp B - Back overs 1.98 C - Lay unders 2.02 D - Doesn't matter at all Answer: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp - 0 points B - Back overs 1.98 - 0 points C - Lay unders 2.02 - 5 points D - Doesn't matter at all - 0 points Some may not know this, presuming 0% commission, backing overs at 1.98 = odds of 1.98, but laying unders of 2.02 = backing overs at 1.9804. Should there be 5% commission, the ratio is still the same. Backing at 1.98 = 1.931, laying 2.02 = backing at 1.9804 = 1.93138 at 5% commission. Though it may seem minor, it is common in Betfair and takes no effort to use the lay market rather than the back market. It may take some maths to work out the actual odds, but you can test it out next time to find such a market on Betfair.

mate, these maths dont add up to me. care to explain please?