BBOTD 1st August

[cpo]

3.15 Goodwood - Mount Athos 1pt win @ 7/2 Bet365 Lets try and get this month off to a winning start. I am going to put up Mount Athos who I believe has a real touch of class about him and I would expect this to be a stepping stone to the Melbourne Cup later in the year. It’s hard to knock this horses form since joining Luca and IMO it will take an unlucky run or a very special performance to beat him tomorrow. Since switching to Luca Cumani’s yard Mount Athos has won 4 from 7 with valid excuses for the 3 defeats. It’s no surprise he was beaten last time out over a trip too short for him. If you look at the current 2^nd favourite for this race Brown Panther, Mount Athos absolutely slammed him this time last year at Newbury and I would expect it to be even easier for him over this longer trip. If he gets a clear run through I can’t see him getting beat. The ground will not be an issue as he has won on this ground before but he would prefer it quicker. Jamie Spencer knows the horse well and is in good form in the last couple of weeks with 9 winners. Luca Cumani is in even better form with 8 winners from 27 runners. He also has an excellent 23% striker rate at this track. He has also had 2 previous runs at the track where he ran well both times so that won’t be an issue tomorrow. If you look at recent runnings of this race, the favourite has won this 7 times in the last 9 years so that’s another plus point. Everything looks in his favour tomorrow for a massive run and I will be gutted if he gets beat as I am having a decent bet on him.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 4.50 Goodwood - Equity Risk 22/1 Betvictor EW BOG I think this one has a better chance than his price implies tomorrow and whilst I am keen on Pythagorian, I certainly think the selection will have a good go of at least making the frame. He flopped LTO but his two runs before that were full of promise and the figures and subsequent form look solid. His draw could be a negative depending on how the race pans out but he will enjoy the ground and this return back up to 7f.

[corky]

BBOTD thursday 1st august :ok

[joeblitz]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 3.40 Galway Yellow Rosebud 15/8 Paddy Power BOG 2nd in this last year beaten a rapidly diminishing head by Lady Wingshot when giving 5lbs now meets the Bolger filly on 5lbs better terms. Will love the ground and acts around here. Of the 3 year olds, the O' Brien horses are running below par while Sendmylovetorose if she has trained on might prove best of the 3 year olds. 1 Point win for nap purposes Yellow Rosebud 15/8 Paddy Power BOG

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 1st August G5.25 Highland Duke e/w 16/1 Betvictor I think a decent jockey and a high draw is a good place to start here and Highland Duke fits the bill. This horse is less exposed than many of these and its only win was on an undulating track so I'm hoping Ryan Tate can get this one into the shake up. That win might also suggest that the horse has been racing on ground that's been too fast of late and this ground should be more to the horses liking.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 1st August Artemis Goodwood Cup In summary, I am very content to back Mount Athos at 7/2 as I feel he should be around the 3/1 mark at most. He is the classiest horse in the race by a longshot in my opinion, as he showed when he was 5th in the Melbourne Cup last November. The Luca Cumani yard are flying at the moment and Luca has had 6 winners from his last 10 runners so I assume he will have Mount Athos in peak form tomorrow. This should be a great spectacle and I wish ye the best of luck with yer bets! Mount Athos - Goodwood 3:15 - WIN @ 7/2 Bet365

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 4.55 Galway: Rock Critic, 10/1 Stan James, win Rock Critic is two from two over hurdles. He won at this meeting last year in his first race over hurdles, when he won by 11L on the bridle. His only other run over hurdles was his last race back in February. He was very impressive again and won by 3¼L from Seabass with the re-opposing Make Your Mark a further 9½L back. He has a great record at Galway with four wins and a place from six runs here. Today's ground and trip will be ideal. He should have some improvement to come as this is just his third hurdle race. Trainer Dermot Weld is having a good festival as usual and top UK jockey Jason Maguire is in the saddle for his only ride of the day.

[nickf88]

5:30 Nottingham - Beau Mistral - 1pt win 16/1 BetVictor Shaped as if a return to form may be imminent last time out, running on enough at the end of his race which is better than most of his form so far this season which has left him on a very low handicap mark compared to past wins. Raul da Silva in great form lately too and gets the leg up today, and takes a further 3 pound off. Won at Nottingham before and the ground shouldn't be a problem either way.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: BBOTD 1st August Goodwood 3.15 Caucus This game is all about opinion & I think Mount Athos wants taking on. For a start off he's a hold up horse & with 14 runners here he's going to need a run & we've seen that not happen a few times already this week. Is his form that good? He's won good handicaps at up to 14f off the highest mark of 108 & the Newbury Group3 defeat of Brown Panther last August reads quite well but the Chester Group3 he won in May was pretty dire (Mad Moose 2nd) & he's not a Group2 horse for me. Last time in the Hardwicke he was held up & didn't quicken when asked 2f out & then hung right before running on too late, this seems to say he needs 2m but he ran on too late in the Melbourne Cup as well & on this quirky track off the short run from the last bend he's going to need it all to drop right. He might well win but at 7/2 that's too skinny. I'm not sure Brown Panther is up to this class either, OK he was second in the Leger but he's yet to win at higher than Listed level or at further than 12f for that matter, he looked impressive winning the Pontefract Castle stakes for the second year running on his return but he didn't beat much there. Of the Godolphin runners Cavalryman runs more bad races than good ones & since winning at Meydan in March he's flopped in the Henry II at Sandown & again at Newmarket LTO. Colour Vision was 3rd in this last year after winning the Ascot Gold Cup but since then seems to have lost his form although he did run a bit better LTO in Gold Cup again. Ahzeemah is at least consistant, he was second to Cavalryman in the Meydan race & then in front of him on 6lb worse terms at Newmarket, he needs to find at least 7lb to get involved here. The German raider Altano was given a lot to do & finished well in the Gold Cup but he's another hold up sort & will need luck in running. Saddler's Rock won this in style last year but has lost the plot since & was well behind in the Gold Cup & that Meydan race. I don't see much from the rags so that leaves Caucus. Last years Gold Cup was too far for him on good to soft but then he won a Newmarket Listed race at this trip in fair style with Cavalryman second. That was it for the year & he returned in the Sagaro at Ascot to run 2nd to Estimate which now looks a smart piece of form. Won a Sandown Listed race LTO & he still looks to be improving. The grounds drying all the time but he doesn't mind a bit of juice anyway, what I do like is he races in touch usually so he shouldn't have any traffic problems. At the prices he'll do for me. Bet. Caucus 1pt win @ 13/2 Bet365 BOG. Rio.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 1405 stratford 1pt win dreamsofthetheatre 5/4 bet365 up 7lb for an easy win at newton abbot last time out under todays jockey,step back in distance may be hinderence,but he did finish second over course and distance albeit 20 lenghs behind the winner but since he was fitted with a tongue tie he has run some decent races, and im hopeful he can continue,due to go up another 4lb in the future

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 305 Stratford: Screaming Brave 5/2 BetVic/Coral Sheena West ought to take this seller with Screaming Brave, been running ok and we can ignore his run last time on soft ground which he cant act on. They describe the going as good to firm in parts and if thats right this would be a confident selection. Should really wait until after a couple of races but wont get on later so will take a chance. Some of his form is much better than any of his rivals and although Quadriller won last time i'm not sure that was a very good race and needs to improve if the selection is on his game.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD 1st August Goodwood 3.15 - Glen's Diamond (E/W 33/1 bet365) Have gone for one at a big price today who on his best form could run into contention. A winner two runs back at York but flopped over at the Curragh so you have to forgive that but that doesn't put me off too much. Is a horse who you isn't that consistent though so I'm hopeful of catching him on a going day.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 2.15 Goodwood - 1pt win King George River @ 14/1 (Bet365) Alan Bailey's runner ran just five days ago in a York Group 2 but that was his first run for a few months and should have come on for that when not given a hard time. Couldn't have really been expected to go ultra close in that but that will have blown away the cobwebs and presuming this hasn't come too soon, should be capable of making his mark back in a handicap. He beat Sugar Boy comfortably on debut proving his worth and has been progressive for Bailey. Was a clear 2nd to Intello at Newmarket in April and also comfortably beat Sennockian Star in a handicap where that one was running off 71 (is now rated 97). Intello is one of the best 3yos around so that form is good (Glory Awaits further back) and he doesn't have to saddle top weight thanks to Tha'ir's inclusion. Can go well.

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 3.15 GOOD MISTER IMPATIENCE @ 33/1 Stan James BOG .5ew Ran well at his only previous try at 2m in the Queens Vase at Ascot, will enjoy the softer underfoot conditions today. This horse does have a touch of class, he was second to the Derby winner at Chester earlier in the season and gets a stone from all of these. This wouldn't be the finest renewal of this race and could sneak at least a place today.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 1st August Nott 2.25 - Starlit cantata - EW at 20/1 bog bet365 Maiden race for 2yo The favourite here is Hoku who has run in a couple of listed races which are obviously much higher class than this but if anything she looks to be going backwards and I'm looking to one of the once-raced horses who showed some potential on debut to improve past her My selection finished 4th in an AW maiden on debut and the Post noted that she ran a bit green but got the hang of it late on and should improve a lot. Today's softer ground might help if it puts more emphasis on stamina. Sire's progeny have a good record on heavy and soft. One of todays rivals finished behind her in that AW maiden and is much shorter odds today.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 14.15 Goodwood: Mundahesh @ 16/1 Bet365 Looks a competitive Handicap but Mundahesh looks also overpriced in this contest. He didn't show too much prior to his most recent run at Sandown, where he very much caught my eye. He was a convincing maiden winner at Wolverhampton last autumn but couldn't confirm this promise subsequently, until three weeks ago. At Sandown he travelled really well in rear, but was in a very difficult position on the inside, where he didn't get a run from 3f out. He got badly hampered over 2f out, but stick to the task and finished strongly when he finally got a clear run. He ran on strongly to finish a close 2nd despite coming from off the pace in a slowly run race, and I assume he'd have won with a clear run that day. So it looks like as if he's improving now while maturing. He steps up in class quite dramatically today, and more is required obviously, and according to his pedigree it is a question mark if he stays the trip in a strongly run race, he also tackles slow ground for the first time, his sire was very successful on this kind of ground though, and I think despite question marks, he looks overpriced, simply on the fact that he can race of bottom weight and that he could be a couple of pounds higher in the mark if he'd have won lto.

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 345 Goodwood - Souviens Toi - 8/1 - Bet 365 1/4 of the odds with the above firm so they would be the ones to use if I could! 2/1 to place is massive considering the true odds are closer to 11/10. Added to whiich, you'd get a free bet if she won - oh for a level playing field. Dead 8 going to post as it stands and I see it between the top 3. Wild Coco has overcome an absence before and Elik is unexposed in the context of this race. Souviens Toi isn't the most likely winner but is consistent and arguably improving this season - all be it very marginally. Dissappointed me here on seasonal reappearence but will put it down to being ring rusty! Hopefully BP run well in the Goodwood Cup(will stamina hold out?) which may cause the odds to tumble given that she chased him home last time out.

[arsenalpunter]

Re: BBOTD 1st August 18.45 Ffos Las Amnesia - 10/11 SportingBet 1PT Win Amnesia has just the one run to her name which came over 6f at Newmarket in a Class 4 contest last month. Although she made headway in the later stages she never troubled the leaders and looked like she may appreciate the slightly shorter distance. The drop back to 5f should be suitable and in lesser company she can come on for her debut and improve in this race.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 1st August

G5.25 Highland Duke e/w 16/1 Betvictor I think a decent jockey and a high draw is a good place to start here and Highland Duke fits the bill. This horse is less exposed than many of these and its only win was on an undulating track so I'm hoping Ryan Tate can get this one into the shake up. That win might also suggest that the horse has been racing on ground that's been too fast of late and this ground should be more to the horses liking.

Awesome :clap