Fader Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 lol I see. Well somebody asked me on Fognini and I think the guy is fade material, it just so happens De Bakker is a choking, headcase journeyman and couldn't finish him off. Fognini is due a tank, only Ferrer takes every single tournament seriously, even if he wins two in a row, Fognini has had enouh and that's why I was warning people away from him. I'm pretty sure Klizan will deal with him tomorrow. Thanks, I just know when not to back players, like Karlovic today, he was bound to be tired. He played newport and then won 5 matches to win bogota where most sets were decided in tie breaks, think about how draining that is on the mind and soul. Also Wawrinka. There's knowing about player's strengths and weaknesses and how they matchup against each other and there's knowing when to back them. Like Wawrinka, the man was obviously going to be rusty, he wasn't going to play amazing tennis consistently and that proved so. Anyway, thanks for the appreciation. :) Wawrinka was 7-5 4-0 up and serving for 5-0. If he goes on (as you'd expect) then you keep this one to yourself Rule. He wasn't rusty atall he just did what he needed to, to win. He wasn't thinking about a handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 James Blake to beat Tim Smychek 1.80 Pinnacle (8/10 points) As good a mover as Smychek is I don';t think he quite as the serve available to compete at a high level on these courts against big servers and big shot makers. Blake had a tough battle with Isner last year (the eventual winner) and he looked pretty impressive. Smychek's loss in form recently also fuels me into believing he won't be able to reset the rally enough against Blake's power. He's been losing to big servers, Klhan an amateaur rookie also recently. Blake brings out the fireworks in America, expecting more of the same here. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Wawrinka was 7-5 4-0 up and serving for 5-0. If he goes on (as you'd expect) then you keep this one to yourself Rule. He wasn't rusty atall he just did what he needed to' date=' to win. He wasn't thinking about a handicap.[/quote'] No he was thinking; "man, I'm rusty, gonna hit the practise court hard after I squeeze through this one." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Good hit on Dodig fader, game handicaps are better than 2-0's most of the time IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WWWYKI! Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Monfils 1.57-Montanes 2.8 seem's wrong.Montanes lead's the h2h 4-1 with all of the clay encounter's going his way.Monfils can be all over the place very strange odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Back Viktor Troicki to beat Tommy Robredo for a 2/10 stake at 2.83 with Pinnacle I can see a bit of value in this one, I certainly can. Robredo hardly at his best in recent weeks and the surface in Umag seems to help players that can hit reasonably big, which is the department in which Troicki has the edge over the Spaniard, who simply seems to be there for the taking these days. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/troicki-vs-robredo-betting-viktor-troicki-to-defeat-tommy-robredo-in-umag-on-thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Good hit on Dodig fader' date=' game handicaps are better than 2-0's most of the time IMO.[/quote'] Yawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 4pts C.Berlocq -4.5 games to beat H.Zeballos 1.90 Bet365 Zeb has been in real bad form on the clay now for a while. He went though a stage where he was on fire winning the Montevideo & Sao Lepoldo events back-to-back and then to top it off winning the Vino Del Mar and beating Nadal in the final from a set down was exceptional. Since then though he hasn't got going again and he has lost 12 of the 16 matches on clay since then going out in round 1 in 7/8 of the last tournaments. Berlocq is much the opposite right now winning Bastad and then doing well at Hamburg too. He should win here. Zeb doesn't have a good enough first serve right now and Berlocq should cover the handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amity Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Fader, just want to say, thanks a lot for your continued top analysis and tips You, CzechPunter, Fishy, Slider and a couple of others are the men that have made this place such a goldmine for us punters in the last couple of years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Someone has to come with this one sooner or later, so why not me ATP Gstaad D.Brands +1.5 sets > R.Federer @3.0 local bookie (2/10) Federer is dropping sets these days like leaky bucket the water. When these two played in Hamburg last week, Brands won the first set. So did Florian Mayer, and Delbonis even managed to beat the old man. This is first Fedex match after the Delbonis defeat, and his confidence should not be the best. Worth small punt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfectedBoy Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Someone has to come with this one sooner or later, so why not me ATP Gstaad D.Brands +1.5 sets > R.Federer @3.0 local bookie (2/10) Federer is dropping sets these days like leaky bucket the water. When these two played in Hamburg last week, Brands won the first set. So did Florian Mayer, and Delbonis even managed to beat the old man. This is first Fedex match after the Delbonis defeat, and his confidence should not be the best. Worth small punt. This bet is part of my strategy this season and I'll be continuing to oppose him with small stakes. Good Luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Yawn Sorry that was too thought provoking for meatheads not to switch off, should have known. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Evgeny Donskoy to beat James Blake 2.00 Ladbrokes (6/10 points) Although Blake won last night I wasn't convinced at all, he made a very distincly average player in Smyczek cause him to sweat. Blake was very static on return of serve and not moving his feet at all, just simply swiping at the on every return, he was the same during rallies and if Smyczek had been a bit less passive he may have stood a chance as Blake was netting everything he had to hit on the run. Blake wasn't as good as he was earlier in the year playing in America. I hate to imagine how he'd cope against a player with a much better serve, consistent kick serve and an ability to make him move a lot more. He actually looked to be hobbling towards the end but thankfully enough for me, his low percentage game went right for him just at the right time. It'll be interesting to see how Blake returns the kick serve outwide to his single handed backhand on the advantage court as I feel he's probably prone to losing control of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Kukushkin 2-0 v Propoggia - Bet365 @ 1.8 This match features Dane Propoggia ranked 371st in the world and Mikhail Kukushkin ranked 181st in the world. Kukushkin is a top player and should be ranked higher than 181st in the world! He was once ranked 49th in the world and is still a decent player. This event is played in Astana Kazakhstan, Kukushkin's home country therefore he should feel comfortable here. As well as this he will get a lot of support and hopefully this will motivate him to do well this week. Back in 2011 Kukushkin won this event, this is the only time he has played this tournament so he has a great record here and I expect this to continue. The odds Bet365 are offering here are mad and will drop a lot after I post this tip! Kukushkin also has a great record on hard court winning 90 matches to just 53 loses. Compare this record to Propoggia's who has won 86 matches to 72 loses, considerably worst than Kukushkin's! Propoggia was hardly impressive in his first round game against the world number 1584! I think he should of won more comfortably! In all of the matches Kukushkin has played at this event he has won them all 2-0 but 1 which he won 2-1! This shows how good these odds are! Kukushkin is the much better player here and should win this 2-0 with ease! Propoggia is still playing on the futures tour where as Kukushkin has not played at Futures level since 2008, this shows who is at the better standard currently! Easy 2-0 win here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Back Viktor Troicki to beat Tommy Robredo for a 2/10 stake at 2.83 with Pinnacle I can see a bit of value in this one, I certainly can. Robredo hardly at his best in recent weeks and the surface in Umag seems to help players that can hit reasonably big, which is the department in which Troicki has the edge over the Spaniard, who simply seems to be there for the taking these days. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/troicki-vs-robredo-betting-viktor-troicki-to-defeat-tommy-robredo-in-umag-on-thursday I agree theres value here, did you know Robredo opened at 1.9 with BetVictor? Then shortened to 1.75, now hes down to 1.5! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Excellent pick Banner, logical reasons and not forced at all. I followed in. Keep them coming. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Excellent pick Banner' date=' logical reasons and not forced at all. I followed in. Keep them coming. :ok[/quote'] Thanks odds were ridiculous! I like your Donskoy pick, surprised to see those odds! I would of had him at slight favourite, hes certainly playing well at the moment and improving alot! And you never know what you will get with Blake! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Thanks odds were ridiculous! I like your Donskoy pick, surprised to see those odds! I would of had him at slight favourite, hes certainly playing well at the moment and improving alot! And you never know what you will get with Blake! Yup, he was a bully on the challenger tour and he's as time passes on getting a grip of the atp main tour at this 250 level. He's a future top 30 player IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Sorry that was too thought provoking for meatheads not to switch off' date=' should have known.[/quote'] It's the same old sh*t I always hear from you. Mouthy f**kwit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amity Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 That was some collapse from Del Bonis from 5-1 up in the second set, he's lost six games in a row to lose the set! Just goes to show you how fatigued he was, adrenalin will only carry you so far Very nearly cost me a packet too, thankfully I've been able to bet in running to limit my losses before Paddy Power saw what was happening and closed off betting (as they're wont to do just when you want to bet!) And then just to completely frazzle my nerves, Granollers almost threw away the final game!! Jesus H, I think I need to take a break from betting, way too much flakiness from players these days It used to be just the women, but some of the men could give them a run for their money in the flakiness stakes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 That was some collpase from Del Bonis from 5-1 up in the second set, he's lost six games in a row to lose the set! Just goes to show you how fatigued he was, adrenalin will only carry you so far Very nearly cost me a packet too, thankfully i've been able to bet in running to limit my losses before Paddy Power saw what was happening and closed off betting (as they're wont to do just when you want to bet!) And then just to completely frazzle my nerves, Granoller almost threw away the final game!! Good Christ, I think I need to take a break from betting, way too much flakiness from players these days It used to be just the women, but some of the men could give them a run for their money in the flakiness stakes! Yeah, DelBonis didn't play all that great in the last round against Belucci either mate. His run was going to come to an end at some point but you'd of expected him to finish off that first set 5-1 up lol :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 That was some collpase from Del Bonis from 5-1 up in the second set, he's lost six games in a row to lose the set! Just goes to show you how fatigued he was, adrenalin will only carry you so far Very nearly cost me a packet too, thankfully i've been able to bet in running to limit my losses before Paddy Power saw what was happening and closed off betting (as they're wont to do just when you want to bet!) And then just to completely frazzle my nerves, Granoller almost threw away the final game!! Good Christ, I think I need to take a break from betting, way too much flakiness from players these days It used to be just the women, but some of the men could give them a run for their money in the flakiness stakes! I usually have a rule in place to never back the player that's just won a tournament(Or had a good run in one) in the very next tournament against a grinder that gets a lot of balls back. Del Bonis isn't the most athletic player on tour either, he strikes the ball off both sides and I think he was always going to fade eventually. It's hard to pick yourself back up off the ground when you were so close away from a 500 level atp title. I actually faded Del Bonis today because of it Don't worry you'll survive, just watch for player's who might be depleted in all forms. Which brings me onto my next pick. Martin Klizan to beat Fabio Fognini 3.00 Betvictor (7/10 points) Watched Klizan against Mayer and although he blew a 4-1 lead and required a tie break in the third, I don't think Fognini will be able or be bothered with matching his intensity the way Mayer did. Klizan will have more drive to win and he's beaten Fognini on slow hardcourts at an ATP world tour final last year. With his forehand he can prove a tough task for anyone and Fognini's concentration is bound to be feigning now. If this was a week or so back I would have said Fognini but I think now is the moment where the winning run will come to a hault. If you're thinking of backing the Italian then all I'll say is get off the ride, you've been on it toomany times now kids, you're gonna fall sick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Donskoy has actually drifted to 2.3 with Pinnacle :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 I see abit of value in Berlocq winning ATP Umag. He should beat Zebellos today and then he would have Seppi most likely. We don't know what Seppi is going to turn up but even on a good day Berlocq can beat Seppi for me. He is in the better form too. In the Semi-final he would face Robredo/Dolgopolov/Troicki. If he made the final he would probably face Fognini/Montanes. 10/1 on him to win this tournament seems a good price. Him and Fognini are the form-dogs right now and it wouldn't surprise me to see them occupy the final. What's people's thoughts on Berlocqs chances? He must be tired along with Fognini but these 2 keep on pulling out results. I don't believe they are un-motivated. I think that's nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Donskoy has actually drifted to 2.3 with Pinnacle :eek Backing the name aren't they, American at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 I see abit of value in Berlocq winning ATP Umag. He should beat Zebellos today and then he would have Seppi most likely. We don't know what Seppi is going to turn up but even on a good day Berlocq can beat Seppi for me. He is in the better form too. In the Semi-final he would face Robredo/Dolgopolov/Troicki. If he made the final he would probably face Fognini/Montanes. 10/1 on him to win this tournament seems a good price. Him and Fognini are the form-dogs right now and it wouldn't surprise me to see them occupy the final. What's people's thoughts on Berlocqs chances? He must be tired along with Fognini but these 2 keep on pulling out results. I don't believe they are un-motivated. I think that's nonsense. I Backed Robredo to win at the start at 13/1, think he should make the final now looking at the draw! And I agree on your motivation comments. I actually think that a 3rd consecutive title is motivating Fognini Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 I see abit of value in Berlocq winning ATP Umag. He should beat Zebellos today and then he would have Seppi most likely. We don't know what Seppi is going to turn up but even on a good day Berlocq can beat Seppi for me. He is in the better form too. In the Semi-final he would face Robredo/Dolgopolov/Troicki. If he made the final he would probably face Fognini/Montanes. 10/1 on him to win this tournament seems a good price. Him and Fognini are the form-dogs right now and it wouldn't surprise me to see them occupy the final. What's people's thoughts on Berlocqs chances? He must be tired along with Fognini but these 2 keep on pulling out results. I don't believe they are un-motivated. I think that's nonsense. I agree on Berlocq, there's no one in the draw he potentially cannot beat "on his day". I wouldn't say Fognini is "unmotivated" per say, but certainly fatigued, keeping to that match intensity against decent claycourters match in match out will have taken it's tole on his mind and body. Concentration will probably decrease, even if he gets passed Klizan, it's likely to be quite difficult. I know a lot of fans are riding him cause he's won them a lot of money, but I think he has been sucked dry now and is ready to fade away. Ofcourse he'll be motivated to win, but do you really think he's going to go out there onto the court and be prepared to "draw blood" for his next victory after he's just won a 250 level and 500 level event? Anything now is merely a bonus, I'm sure. Same thing happened to Halep against Penneta and Mahut against Bester. Berlocq's probably more fresh than Fognini and yes for me, I see no one in the draw who he can't beat "on his day" as I said up above. It's a good shout. I think it's most likely the winner comes from Monfils/Montanes/Klizan(If he gets by Fognin) but Berlocq is definitely in there with a chance, agree with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Daniela Hauntova to beat Urszula Radwanska 1.95 888 (5/10 points) She's the better player and I don't understand why she isn't 1.5? This isn't clay? Worth the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoRSoVsKi Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Is there a live stream somewhere of Berlocq - Zeballos match ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritaniaa Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: July 22 - July 28 Excellent call on the Brands Homu! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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