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EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July


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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Sliema - Khazar - Away win @1.44 Odds have shortened a bit, but I still think they carry some value. Sliema have finished 4th in Malta, but I don't think they can be a match for Khazar. The Azeri side finished 2nd in their domestic league, just 3 points behind the champions Neftci. If I recall correctly, they always tend to do well in Europe, at least in the first rounds. I couldn't find much information about Sliema's squad, and as for Khazar, only striker Zouhir Benouahi is doubtful. All in all, I think Khazar should have too much for an average Maltese team. Maybe -1AH is also a good option, since I expect something like 2-0 or 3-0 victory.
Well, that's disappointing to say the least. I couldn't see or follow the game in any way just saw the end result on futbol24...but I guess Khazar were thinking they are on a holiday...
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Well' date=' that's disappointing to say the least. I couldn't see or follow the game in any way just saw the end result on futbol24...but I guess Khazar were thinking they are on a holiday...[/quote'] I watched the game and we were awful. After scoring an early goal we hardly created any chance and their goal was due to a mistake from our goalkeeper.
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

My first-round numbers for home dogs over the past four years shows an interesting split: games involving home underdogs of 9.0 or better are 1-2-6 to the over 3 goals, while games involving home underdogs of 8.99 or less are 8-4-2 to the over 3 goals. For today, that would make Sliema a play at over 2.5 @ 1.89, and Trans Narva a play at under 3 @ 2.15 Adding: Trans Narva have been involved in two of these first-round games in those 4 years: they lost 1-4 in 2011 @ 5.16, and lost 0-3 in 2009 @ 7.91. Doesn't speak so well to the under, although Scandinavian teams often get bogged down in defensive games in round 1 away from home.
One loss, and one win snatched away by an own-goal and a 93' goal...
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

One loss' date=' and one win snatched away by an own-goal and a 93' goal...[/quote'] Sorry to ask, but where is the win - Sliema - Khasar 1:1 (over 2.5 loser) and Narva - Gefle 0-3 (under 3 void)?!
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Bala Town vs Levadia Tallinn I follow Welsh football so thought I would preview this game. Bala Town are a side who have come up from parks football to the WPL and now to their first ever trip into Europe. They have done it basically through being bankrolled (though not to the extent of TNS). Their wages etc are very modest really but compared to other Welsh teams they are quite high. The manager, Colin Caton, has been with them throughout their progression up the divisions. He has got a reputation amongst Welsh football fans as lacking in football knowledge and tactically inept, I'm not sure how fair this is but I don't think he has done any of his badges which would support the view. Like I say he is the same person who has been with them since they were a very small side indeed. I think to his credit he has the support of the players and has provided the side with some stability. In terms of their style Bala are a very 'route one' side. They are famed for their poor pitch, during midwinter it is one of the worst pitches I have ever seen and I don't think they'd get away with it in a more established league; lots of patches of sticky mud and very little grass is the order of the day! As far as Welsh football goes they are an underish side, though bear in mind there's normally loads of goals in Welsh football. Last season they were expected to be in the top four but had a very poor start to the season by their standards which saw them in the bottom half of the division come the split. There was talk of the manager getting fired, but they went on to have an excellent run, winning pretty much every game for the rest of the season, scoring loads of goals and conceding maybe only one or two goals in the entire second half of the season. They looked far superior to the other sides in the bottom half of the split. In winning the 'relegation zone' they got into the Europa League playoffs which they did very well to win, beating highly fancied Bangor City 4-1 on their own patch and then Port Talbot (who are more on Bala's level). It is worth noting that Bala have lost their second best player, Lee Hunt (a striker) to Prestatyn this summer. Their best players is midfielder Mark Jones who actually has a couple of caps for Wales and who could play at a higher level; he had offers to carry on playing full time football when he left Wrexham but rejected them, citing his need to regain the love of playing the game for its own sake not for money. Levadia Tallinn meanwhile are a professional side (Bala are semi pro), they are top of their league and crucially are mid-season. Their team features a lot more experienced players, one who has 71 caps for Estonia and a few more with the odd cap, a lot of U21 experience and some who have played in much stronger foreign leagues only to come back to Estonia. I've looked at some highlights of their games on Youtube and the standard does seem to be higher than that of the Welsh league. So, are Levadia value here @ 2.25 or so? It should be remembered that the game is being played at Belle Vue (Rhyl's ground), which is a pretty good pitch and will suit the Estonians with their classier, continental style passing game. Bala, however, will be well up for this and will play a very physical game. Welsh sides have not done too badly at home in similar type of games recently. Last year Bangor drew with Zimbru, Llanelli drew with a Finnish side and Cefi Druids drew with MyPa. If you look at the uefa coefficient Wales is actually higher than Estonia which suggests their teams have done better in Europe lately, if you look at Estonian teams' results they have been awful and seem to be getting worse rather than better- looking back a few years Levadia had some excellent results but lately they have not done well, getting knocked out by a side from Luxembourg for instance. Even so, I think this is a bit of a fallacy- the Estonian league is stronger than the WPL. I have little doubt Levadia will go through but I think this game could well be a draw, which wouldn't be a bad result for either side. As such I will be having a small play on Levadia DNB @ 1.6 (Expekt)- also available at Paddy Power 1.62. It's not a game to go massively into though, if it was in Estonia I would fancy a home win with the handicap but as its the first leg and Levadia don't need to win, draw cover is essential here IMO.
Great result for Bala, by all accounts Levadia had most of the play and Bala rode their luck but looked dangerous on the counter attack and played above themselves. In terms of stats Levadia had 7 corners to Bala's 1, and 6 shots off target to Bala's 1, though shots on target was 1 each. I'm glad I only had a small play which was offset to some extent by a bet on the straight Shirak win, still annoying to make a loss though. It goes to show, as Swindon fan said, how difficult the first legs are for betting on when the underdog is at home. IN terms of the other Welsh games, it is interesting that Airbus are a much bigger price than Prestatyn as they are a better side by a fair margin. This is obviously because the Latvian side they are playing is better and would suggest there is a big difference between top and mid table Latvian sides. I know nothing about the Latvian league so couldn't judge that. Prestatyn are an incredibly overish side who made me a lot of money in the Welsh league last season. I bet on over 3.5 in all their games as they can't defend but have excellent players going forward; Price, Parkinson and player manager Gibson are all players with extensive experience in the football league, they are in their late 30s/early 40s but are excellent at this level. Over 3.5 was almost always odds against and it just kept happening. For this reason the natural bet to consider is the overs but as over 2.5 is only 1.67 I am going to avoid it. Partly because it's a new season and these trends do sometimes change over the summer, but moreover I think they will be happy with a draw against superior opposition and will play defensively and hope for a 1-0 like Bala. I think on the whole that I don't know enough about the Latvian teams to make an informed judgment on whether the 1x2 prices are value. I'd imagine there is a big quality difference but these games could end up draws or the Welsh side could even sneak it like Bala did. It will be interesting to see what happens though and I have a view to back goals or Liepajas on the asian handicap in the return leg. Bala gave me a warning tonight though so no more bets for the first leg games involving Welsh teams.
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July My bets for tomorrow.. Breidablik v FC Santa Coloma This game has been talked about already, thought the odds were off initially when I posted this considering it is a full time team v part time, then you consider that the Icelandic season is in full flow with Breidablik doing alright in 4th winning 10 of their last 11 games at home in the league and cup, against a side who are not only out of season but also lost 3 of their last 4 games in Andorra at the end of last season. Not much more to say really. Breidablik -1EH - Youwin - 1.75 - 10 Points Breidablik -2EH - Youwin - 3.10 - 10 Points Home Team Clean Sheet - Yes - Youwin - 1.90 - 10 Points UE Santa Coloma v Zrinjski I put this one on again because I felt the price was too big, it's probably the bet I'm least confident about now though! UE Coloma have a dire record in Europe, they qualify for the Europa League every year and every year fail at this round and will do so again. They haven't ever scored a goal in the competition over 6 matches home and away against similar opposition (bar Twente who they played at this stage last year). Zrinjski have traditionally been one of the better Bosnian sides but only finished mid-table last year, I expect this to be a hard fought victory maybe 1 or 2-0, a bet placed more on the weakness of Andorran sides and the price than the strength of Zrinjski. Away Team Clean Sheet - Yes - Youwin - 2.00 - 10 Points Sarajevo v Libertas This is the stone-wall victory of the round, Sarajevo appear to be quite a strong side finishing second in the Bosnian league last season (whereas Zrinjski finished 9th!), they have decent experience in the competition progressing quite comfortably to the third or final qualifying round. Libertas should be typical San Marino whipping boys, I bet on Renova against them last year when they lost 8-0 on agg. I would urge a bit of caution on the handicaps though as Sarajevo's best striker Hadzic has just left for Israel, he scored 20 in 27 starts last season in the league and all 5 in their last game of the season. I'm sure they will score 4 or 5 at least but I'm relying on some cover, after a bit of research their supporters club seem to think they will line-up 4-2-3-1 with the following team: Bandović; Tadejević - Dupovac - Tatomirović, Radulovic; Džakmić - Cimirot; Todorovic - Haurdić - Suljić; Melunović. I might add some more on this tomorrow if any other prices appeal, can't imagine they will though, those early HT/FT bets were probably the best ones I made, be staggered if the part-timers hold them until HT. Sarajevo HT/FT - bet365 + paddyp - 1.36 + 1.33 - 12 Points Sarajevo -1EH - 1.22 - bwin - 5 Points Sarajevo -3.0AH - 1.36 - betinternet - 10 Points KR v Gelntoran Looked at this based on belfastchris's post above and it looks like a good play, the odds have now dived though. KR seem to be in good form and well into their season, Glentoran's league campaign doesn't start for another month and as chris said they appear to be in far from ideal shape. KR - 1.57 - hills - 6 Points

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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Only thing that puts me off Sarajevo handicaps is their performance against Hibernians last season. They won 5-2 at home but needed late goals against ten men, and 4-4 away. What sort of side are Hibernians, anyone?

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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Hibernians are a Maltese side, and while not the strongest in Europe, they would appear to be easily a class above the likes of Andorra and San Marino on the basis that, in the last two seasons, Valletta have comfortably defeated the champions of both in the Champions League qualifiers, thrashing Lusitanos 9-0 on aggregate in 2012-13 and Tre Fiori 5-1 on aggregate the year before that. Sarajevo won 13 out of 15 home games last season, were the top scorers in the league and are playing a side who lost 8-0 over two legs to Renova last season. I would be very surprised if they don't win by at least three clear goals.

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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Pinnacle being very annoying and havnt priced up the match odds yet:spank Seems a bit funny.
Surprised they even price them up to be honest! These aren't their kind of markets, the reason they don't limit people is because they offer decent odds on limited markets on very popular games where the chances of winning long-term are very minimal. Don't think they would offer more than one handicap price on most games even if they did price them up.
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Chikhura - Vaduz, 2,3 3.6 -3.5 Vaduz dnb 8/10 2.45[TABLE=class: table-main detail-odds sortable, width: 536]

[TR=class: highest] [TD=class: right, bgcolor: #F9EFAB, align: right]Vaduz has players from Germany, Italy, Czech, Bosnia and of course Switzerland.actually, theyhave only 4 Lichtenstain players on their squad., Chikhura, who played until last year on 2nd division, has only domestic Georgian players[/TD] [TD=class: right, bgcolor: #F9EFAB, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: right, bgcolor: #F9EFAB, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Hi folks! Regarding the Videoton - Podgorica match... I'm from Hungary and just read the morning news, and interviews with the coaches. Jose Gomes (Videoton) told it was difficult to get information on their opponent, he was able to watch their matches only from last season. But the most important thing for his team is to play our own game. He is totally satisfied how his lads trained recently and are ready to play a good game against Podgorica, a team they respect. Videoton will play against "the best team in the world" and would like to show on the field that they are the better side. Nikola Rakojevic (Podgorica) said it is not optimal that they had only 15 days to prepare, so they did nothing special, but tried to get the players in form. 90% of his players will debut in Europe today... They don't have big illussions. Rakojevic would be satisfield with a draw and they score, and also noted he will field many players younger than 20... I'm from Hungary, and although don't like Videoton at all I say they will win this match. Not sure about the handicap, but Interwetten right now offers 1.40 on home win, which imo is a good value. In addition Interwetten also offers the following, so a nice accumulator bet can be put together: Sarajevo - Libertas: 3 goals or more: 1.30 Reykjavik - Glentoran: home win 1.45 Crusaders - Rosenborg: away win 1.25 Breidablik - Santa Coloma: homw win 1.22

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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Hi' date=' what do you think about the -1 handicap win of Videoton Vs Mladost Podgorica at @2,10 ? I think hungarian have more confidence with european matches, last year they arrived 2nd in home league and reached the group stagein UEFA EL, montenegrian side finished 6°th in home league and have no experience in UEFA.[/quote']I think you are on a good thing here pep. If Videoton can smash Sporting Lisbon in the main competition last year, I doubt they will have a problem with this team. Add the fact that the opposition have not played for a month and only have 15 players and have never played in Europe, I would say it was likely a comfortable home win. GL
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July [TABLE=class: soccer]

[TR=class: even] [TD=class: team-home]Laci (Alb) [/TD] [TD=class: score]- [/TD] [TD=class: team-away]Differdange (Lux) [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Home win for sure, expecting 2-0. Laçi is way much stronger than its opponent. [TABLE=class: soccer] [TR] [TD=class: team-home]Teuta (Alb) [/TD] [TD=class: score]-[/TD] [TD=class: team-away]Dacia Chisinau (Mda)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Draw or Away win (0) seems like a good pick here. Can't see Teuta win this one. [TABLE=class: soccer] [TR=class: tr-first] [TD=class: team-home]Flora (Est) [/TD] [TD=class: score]-[/TD] [TD=class: team-away]Kukesi (Alb)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Kukesi will fight hard but I don't think they have the squad to cause much damage. Home win, 2-0 or 3-0.
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Videoton x Breidablik, 1.69 my local. Will take this double. Vidi will play against Mladost Podgorica. They finished 2nd in Hungary, only because bad first part of season. Then changed coach, and everything went better. Lost two players in meantime but still very strong team. Nemanja Nikolic will play alone upfront. Mladost finished midtable in Montenegro but few teams didnt want/coildnt play in Europe, they got a chance. Best scorer is Scepanovic. He played in Hungary and couldnt score. Vidi tend to play low scoring matches at home. 2-0 is possible result. Breidablik will play Santa Coloma. Wont say much here. Only, if they cant beat team from Andora at home, then should hang themselves :unsure. Class difference is big here i think. Adding: Best Mladost scorer last season,Scepanovic, is on trial in Iran, and probably wont make it. Now I am even more confident in Videoton. Hope wont let down :hope

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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Chikhura - Vaduz' date=' 2,3 3.6 -3.5 Vaduz dnb 8/10 2.45[TABLE=class: table-main detail-odds sortable, width: 536"] [TR=class: highest] [TD=class: right, bgcolor: #F9EFAB, align: right]Vaduz has players from Germany, Italy, Czech, Bosnia and of course Switzerland.actually, theyhave only 4 Lichtenstain players on their squad., Chikhura, who played until last year on 2nd division, has only domestic Georgian players[/TD] [TD=class: right, bgcolor: #F9EFAB, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: right, bgcolor: #F9EFAB, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
Following this tip, i layed Chikhura yesterday at 2.4 for 50pts...today i greened up at 2.7. As the game started the price drifted to 3.7 after 5 minutes of play. Great advice Feduloff.
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Hi folks! Regarding the Videoton - Podgorica match... I'm from Hungary and just read the morning news, and interviews with the coaches. Jose Gomes (Videoton) told it was difficult to get information on their opponent, he was able to watch their matches only from last season. But the most important thing for his team is to play our own game. He is totally satisfied how his lads trained recently and are ready to play a good game against Podgorica, a team they respect. Videoton will play against "the best team in the world" and would like to show on the field that they are the better side. Nikola Rakojevic (Podgorica) said it is not optimal that they had only 15 days to prepare, so they did nothing special, but tried to get the players in form. 90% of his players will debut in Europe today... They don't have big illussions. Rakojevic would be satisfield with a draw and they score, and also noted he will field many players younger than 20... I'm from Hungary, and although don't like Videoton at all I say they will win this match. Not sure about the handicap, but Interwetten right now offers 1.40 on home win, which imo is a good value. In addition Interwetten also offers the following, so a nice accumulator bet can be put together: Sarajevo - Libertas: 3 goals or more: 1.30 Reykjavik - Glentoran: home win 1.45 Crusaders - Rosenborg: away win 1.25 Breidablik - Santa Coloma: homw win 1.22
Im from Portugal and i should advise that José Gomes is an awful coach. I´m aware that he has been producing a good job at Videoton but in Portugal he was a mess. Im a F.C.Porto fan and i remember the terrible feedback of Porto´s fans back in 2008 when he was hired as an assistant coach. Till 2008 he relegated two teams. I read a comment about Videoton´s win last year agains Sporting Lisbon...i should advise you that you shoudn´t take that in consideration because that match wasn´t a surprise for anyone in Portugal..Sporting was in a moment that they could play againts a 3rd division side and most probably they would loose. However i enjoyed the attacking style of Videoton...unfortunately José Gomes never was a coach to play an attacking style..i dont know if he changed, though. Mladost on the other hand reached Europa League via Cup after being defeated in the final by Budocnost, the runner up in their league. Mladost was only 6th, mid-table, with a 9 goals negative record. Good luck.
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Hope some people benefited from backing Breidablik when they were overpriced. I suspected there was a difference in class between the sides, although I would never have envisaged them going 3-0 up in 25 minutes! For me the most astonishing result of the day is Sarajevo 1-0 Libertas - considering the outright win was 1.03, it's truly incredible that it was by such a narrow margin. The match stats on the UEFA site make for remarkable reading - apparently Sarajevo had 34 shots, 15 on target...and only one goal to show for it! Extremely unlucky for handicap backers.

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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Hope some people benefited from backing Breidablik when they were overpriced. I suspected there was a difference in class between the sides, although I would never have envisaged them going 3-0 up in 25 minutes! For me the most astonishing result of the day is Sarajevo 1-0 Libertas - considering the outright win was 1.03, it's truly incredible that it was by such a narrow margin. The match stats on the UEFA site make for remarkable reading - apparently Sarajevo had 34 shots, 15 on target...and only one goal to show for it! Extremely unlucky for handicap backers.
I saw that too. On another day, the result could have been 5-0 or more with stats like that. I suppose there is always a risk of a lower than expected margin particularly where one side might just be trying to keep the score down, but those stats would normally produce a win by several goals I think.
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

My bets for tomorrow.. Breidablik v FC Santa Coloma This game has been talked about already, thought the odds were off initially when I posted this considering it is a full time team v part time, then you consider that the Icelandic season is in full flow with Breidablik doing alright in 4th winning 10 of their last 11 games at home in the league and cup, against a side who are not only out of season but also lost 3 of their last 4 games in Andorra at the end of last season. Not much more to say really. Breidablik -1EH - Youwin - 1.75 - 10 Points WIN Breidablik -2EH - Youwin - 3.10 - 10 Points WIN Home Team Clean Sheet - Yes - Youwin - 1.90 - 10 Points WIN UE Santa Coloma v Zrinjski I put this one on again because I felt the price was too big, it's probably the bet I'm least confident about now though! UE Coloma have a dire record in Europe, they qualify for the Europa League every year and every year fail at this round and will do so again. They haven't ever scored a goal in the competition over 6 matches home and away against similar opposition (bar Twente who they played at this stage last year). Zrinjski have traditionally been one of the better Bosnian sides but only finished mid-table last year, I expect this to be a hard fought victory maybe 1 or 2-0, a bet placed more on the weakness of Andorran sides and the price than the strength of Zrinjski. Away Team Clean Sheet - Yes - Youwin - 2.00 - 10 Points LOST Sarajevo v Libertas This is the stone-wall victory of the round, Sarajevo appear to be quite a strong side finishing second in the Bosnian league last season (whereas Zrinjski finished 9th!), they have decent experience in the competition progressing quite comfortably to the third or final qualifying round. Libertas should be typical San Marino whipping boys, I bet on Renova against them last year when they lost 8-0 on agg. I would urge a bit of caution on the handicaps though as Sarajevo's best striker Hadzic has just left for Israel, he scored 20 in 27 starts last season in the league and all 5 in their last game of the season. I'm sure they will score 4 or 5 at least but I'm relying on some cover, after a bit of research their supporters club seem to think they will line-up 4-2-3-1 with the following team: Bandović; Tadejević - Dupovac - Tatomirović, Radulovic; Džakmić - Cimirot; Todorovic - Haurdić - Suljić; Melunović. I might add some more on this tomorrow if any other prices appeal, can't imagine they will though, those early HT/FT bets were probably the best ones I made, be staggered if the part-timers hold them until HT. Sarajevo HT/FT - bet365 + paddyp - 1.36 + 1.33 - 12 Points WIN Sarajevo -1EH - 1.22 - bwin - 5 Points LOST Sarajevo -3.0AH - 1.36 - betinternet - 10 Points LOST KR v Gelntoran Looked at this based on belfastchris's post above and it looks like a good play, the odds have now dived though. KR seem to be in good form and well into their season, Glentoran's league campaign doesn't start for another month and as chris said they appear to be in far from ideal shape. KR - 1.57 - hills - 6 Points LOST
Well, interesting day. Breidablik saved me really, the 2EH winner made it a decent night but I don't really feel that happy considering the other results. Felt quite negative about Zrinjski beforehand and they disappointed, conceding in first half stoppage time with their only shot on target in the whole game! Zrinjski went on to win 3-1 but no good to me. Don't know what the hell happened in the Sarajevo game, I had a feed for the first half hour and they were all over them and playing really well, couldn't see any way they wouldn't get at least another two, in the end I'm just thankful the HT/FT bet came even at those odds. Looks like KR had the better of it against Glentoran but couldn't finish, again a disappointing result and plenty of results tonight show that the home nations shouldn't be underestimated in the qualifying rounds. Hope people didn't get too buried in the Sarajevo game..
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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July KR game was a bit of a kick in the ballcocks. Didnt expect that. On the whole seemed mostly really tight cagey games score wise. nobody was really put to the sword. Think that is more likely in the next round once sides from Netherlands, Portuguese, Romanian,Belgium and such like become involved it is a bigger jump up standard wise and no longer about differentiating the levels of crap which tonight shows is not too easy to do.

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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July I know jack squat about most of these teams that played but wanted a fairly secure slice of action. Big thanks to Hast and Mighty Well for turning me onto the Breidablik handicap. And I doubled that with a Rosenberg to win leg thanks to the guy from Northern Ireland. Nice double cheers guys. :ok

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Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July

Wouldn't be surprized if Sarajevo players placed bets on under goals...
Most unlucky game i saw in a LONG LONG time. They hit the wood work on 4 occasions and missed 2 sitters. I doubt they would have bet on the under.. there was no swing on odds. One game that was 100% RIGGED was Champions league EB/Steymur. The way the odds moved and how the game was played out.
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