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About MightyWell

  • Birthday 02/02/1990

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  1. The first legs last week showed that the games at this round of the competition can be very hard to call. TNS losing at home to Europa was obviously the shock result, but when you consider the Kosovan champions losing to their Faroese counterparts and Linfield scraping past La Fiorita, it becomes clear that these teams enter at this stage for a reason. Having said that, the biggest value of the round for me again would be Linfield to beat La Fiorita at 4/9. The odds on a Sammarinese side to lose their 'home' leg (home matches for Sammarinese clubs in Europe are played at San Marino's national stadium rather than their own grounds) are usually between 1/10 and 1/3. In 34 European ties, there has only ever been one instance of a Sammarinese side losing by less than two goals on aggregate. La Fiorita would need to avoid defeat for that scenario to happen again tonight, but their record of 11 defeats from 11 games in European competitions suggests that's unlikely. It's hard to tell whether I overestimated Linfield last week - it's unusual for a Sammarinese side to come so close to avoiding defeat away from home, but from the highlights Linfield did seem to be the better side and I still think 1/5 was a big price. They will know there is no room for complacency in the return leg and at 4/9 look a good price to see the job through with some room to spare.
  2. I think Linfield will probably cover the -1 handicap, but I'm playing it safe with the straight win. In the last three years the Sammarinese champions have only lost by one goal in the first legs of their ties at this stage of the competition, although in all cases the narrow margin of the defeats flattered them by all accounts - I remember keeping track of the Pyunik-Folgore game in 2015 when Pyunik had five attempts on goal in the first ten minutes and racked up 26 efforts on goal to Folgore's 3 in the game yet only won 2-1. Unfortunately the odds on the home win are going down across the board, but even 1/7 is a fairly decent price considering La Fiorita's record as well as that of Sammarinese teams away from home in Europe.
  3. The bet of the round for me looks to be Linfield to win at home to La Fiorita at 1/5. I would have expected the odds for this to be around the 1/10 mark. Granted, Linfield aren't the strongest side, but they are playing arguably the weakest team in the competition - La Fiorita have played in European competitions for five consecutive seasons now and have lost all 10 games in that time including a 7-0 defeat to Levadia of Estonia and a 10-1 aggregate defeat to Vaduz of Liechtenstein. Looking at the wider picture, since gaining admission into European club competitions in 2000, Sammarinese sides have lost 33 of 34 away games in European competitions, the sole exception being Tre Fiori's draw with Andorran outfit Sant Julia in 2009. Obviously, results from 15 years ago are not going to have a bearing on next Wednesday's game, but it is clear to see that Sammarinese teams are out of their depth at this level, and as such La Fiorita's 100% losing record in Europe looks set to continue on Wednesday.
  4. Just having a quick look at the odds and I'm surprised to see Flora as high as 3/10 at home to Gibraltarian champions Lincoln Red Imps. By comparison, The New Saints from Wales are no bigger than 1/10 at home to Sammarinese champions Tre Penne, and I wouldn't say there is any huge difference in the respective gaps between the sides. Consider the performances of the San Marino and Gibraltar national teams in Euro 2016 qualifying - Gibraltar actually fared worse, losing all 10 games and shipping a staggering 56 goals while Marino managed a point and 'only' conceded 36 times. Of course the national teams cannot be used as an exact benchmark for club sides, but here it is worth noting the significant overlap in the Gibraltar and Lincoln Red Imps squads - the club contributed a high number of players to the national team, and it was clear that they were completely out of their depth in Europe. As for Flora, they're obviously no world-beaters themselves - they're playing in this stage of the competition for a reason - but they are one of the stronger Estonian sides, they are 17 games into their league season and so have the match fitness advantage, and they have been solid at home in their domestic season, conceding in only one of their nine home games thus far and racking up 6-0 wins against two of the league's weaker sides. With this in mind, 3/10 for the straight win looks like decent value.
  5. Rosenborg - a 1.06 shot - could only draw 0-0 at home to Vikingur, West Ham scraped a 1-0 win in Andorra and Brondby are currently being held at 0-0 at half time in San Marino having had no shots on target; in the first leg they were 6-0 up at the break...what's going on?!
  6. 1.36 for Pyunik to win away to Folgore looks decent. If Armenia were playing San Marino away, they would be around 1.2 for the straight win, and while the international sides can't be used as an exact benchmark, these teams are the strongest the respective countries have to offer. Pyunik only won the first leg 2-1, but the result undoubtedly flattered Folgore; the match statistics reveal the extent of Pyunik's dominance with 26 shots on goal to 3 and 11 corners to 3, Folgore scoring with their only effort on target. Pyunik would undoubtedly have been disappointed with the narrow margin of victory and will look to set that straight tonight. Although the performances of Armenian teams in this competition in recent years have hardly been encouraging, the game between these sides last week revealed a considerable difference in quality, and they should have more than enough to finish the job tonight.
  7. Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Sunday March 29th How bad are Gibraltar? They started off with some impressive friendly results (0-0 draw with Slovakia, who aren't exactly much worse than Scotland) and a victory over Malta, and while the qualifying campaign started with maulings at the hands of Poland and Republic of Ireland, the 4-0 reverse in Germany (the only goal in the second half being an own goal) was a more impressive effort, so a bit of a mixed bag overall. Scotland generally don't tend to thrash the weaker teams (narrow win against Georgia, 97th minute winner against Liechtenstein a few years ago spring to mind). I haven't seen Gibraltar play in these qualifiers so not sure what to expect.
  8. Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Saturday November 15th Hope no-one followed my tip and got burned as badly as I have. Having watched the full game, I can safely say Estonia are the worst side I've seen playing San Marino, and I've watched many of their games over the years. It wasn't even a case of constant backs-to-the-wall for San Marino; they more than held their own and Estonia's lack of urgency was unbelievable. You would think, having already won against Slovenia in this qualifying campaign, they would have enough to do so against a side that had lost 66 consecutive qualifying matches going into this one. Fair play to San Marino - I have respect for their players and they deserved their point - but it's hard to know where to go from here.
  9. Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday November 14th Estonia are available at around 1/6 to win away to San Marino tonight, and this looks like a decent money-making opportunity. For those who take a particular interest in San Marino's games, this qualifying campaign is full of potential. The fact that the expansion of the tournament has given teams like Estonia and Lithuania a better chance than they've ever had to qualify should ensure they are fully motivated for these matches. Secondly, consider the fact that Estonia are the fourth seeds in the group and are available at this price; in the World Cup 2014 qualifying campaign, Poland were the fourth seeds in San Marino's group in World Cup 2014 qualifying and they were 1.04 to win in Serravalle. This time around, fifth seeds Lithuania were San Marino's first opponents - they were around 1.2 to win on the day and they did so very comfortably, the game effectively wrapped up by half-time as they were 2-0 up. On the one hand, Estonia's recent away record is poor - they lost four of their five away matches in World Cup 2014 qualifying and have lost their only one to date in this campaign. However, the fact that they're playing San Marino should ensure this match is an exception. To get a comparison, consider San Marino's recent home results against opposition of a fairly similar standard to Estonia: 12/10/2010: San Marino 0-2 Moldova (Euro 2012 qualification) 09/02/2011: San Marino 0-1 Liechtenstein (Friendly) 14/08/2012: San Marino 2-3 Malta (Friendly) 16/10/2012: San Marino 0-2 Moldova (World Cup 2014 qualification) 08/06/2014: San Marino 0-3 Albania (Friendly) 09/08/2014: San Marino 0-2 Lithuania (Euro 2016 qualification) I would consider all of these sides to be certainly no better than Estonia, and most of them slightly worse. I don't read too much into friendly results, but the games against Moldova and Lithuania arguably give a better indication of where the sides are placed. (San Marino also lost 4-0 and 3-0 away to Moldova in the respective qualifying campaigns.) Finally, if this can be used as any sort of benchmark, the champions of both countries met in the Champions League first qualifying round this season. Estonian champions Levadia defeated their Sammarinese counterparts La Fiorita 8-0 on aggregate, winning 1-0 in Serravalle (although by all accounts they were dominant and should have won more comfortably) before recording a more convincing 7-0 win in Tallinn. I wouldn't expect that sort of score and it may not be done and dusted by half-time, but Estonia should have more than enough to win tonight.
  10. Re: Euro 2016 Qualifying > Monday September 8th 1/5 for Lithuania to win away to San Marino looks decent value. Lithuania aren't a particularly strong side, but they are better than San Marino; a 2-0 win away to Liechtenstein, a side undoubtedly stronger than San Marino, in World Cup 2014 qualifying, suggests they have what it takes to win here, and going slightly further back they won 1-0 away to Czech Republic in Euro 2012 qualifying. The new format for qualifying gives mid to lower ranked sides a better chance than ever of qualifying, and Lithuania will know this a perfect chance to get off to a winning start against a side that has lost 62 consecutive qualifying matches and 110 of 112 in total. Elsewhere, the Montenegro-Moldova odds have changed to reflect the match more accurately to a degree. Considering Moldova thrashed them 5-2 in Montenegro in the last round of World Cup 2014 qualifying, 1/4 for the home win this time around would be absurd. The prices are now fluctuating around a slightly more realistic 4/9 for Montenegro, with the away win as high as 7/1 - might be worth a speculative punt considering that result!
  11. Re: Europa League - 1st Qualifying Round - Thursday 4th July 1.44 for Metalurg to win at UE Santa Coloma looks a great price. On the one hand, Metalurg have yet to win a game in European competition with this being their fifth consecutive year in the tournament, but they haven't faced opponents of the calibre of UE Santa Coloma, another side making their fifth consecutive appearance in the competition having lost all eight of their games so far. Their near namesakes' victory against Banants last night may understandably make people wary, but Macedonian sides generally haven't had the trouble encountered by Armenian teams in facing the real minnows (Andorran and Sammarinese teams) as these results suggest: 2010-11 Europa League: Rabotnicki 5-0 Lusitanos, Lusitanos 0-6 Rabotnicki 2011-12 Europa League: Juvenes/Dogana 0-1 Rabotnicki, Rabotnicki 3-0 Juvenes/Dogana 2012-13 Europa League: Renova 4-0 Libertas, Libertas 0-4 Renova It's also worth noting that Renova qualified for the 2012-13 tournament by winning the national cup; in the league they finished 24 points behind the leaders and were considered by all accounts a distinctly average Macedonian side and they coasted through the tie. This year, Metalurg have qualified by finishing third in the league, just three points behind champions Rabotnicki. They should have too much for their Andorran opponents, and surely lightning can't strike twice?! Elsewhere, the most eye-catching odds for the opposite reason are 1.13 for Vaduz to beat College Europa. Gibraltian sides are unproven in European competition, but is their perceived standard really so low that a side from Liechtenstein are expected to sail past them? These odds would be more realistic if Vaduz were playing a team from Andorra or San Marino, but if the national teams are any indication Gibraltar's results suggest they have more to them having managed a victory against Malta and draws with Slovakia and Estonia in their five friendly matches since UEFA acceptance. Lincoln Red Imps play Havnar in the Champions League qualifiers tonight, and that will be the first indication of how the club sides perform at this level; in any case, at that price I would suggest going against Vaduz.
  12. Tomorrow marks an important date on the football calendar - the start of the Champions League! As some regulars on here will know, the very first qualifying round brings some attractive betting prospects, and this year's draw has thrown up some intriguing fixtures. Santa Coloma (AND) v Banants (ARM) La Fiorita (SMR) v Levadia (EST) Lincoln Red Imps (GIB) v Havnar (FAR) Santa Coloma were seeded in the draw, but this does not mean they should be considered favourites. Last year's Armenian champions Shirak were unseeded in the draw when they played Tre Penne of San Marino and they comfortably won 3-0 in the first leg before falling to a humiliating 1-0 defeat in the second leg. This sort of performance doesn't fill people with confidence when it comes to backing the Armenian champions, but consider the calibre of their opponents Santa Coloma; their all-time record in European competition is as follows: Home: P9 W1 D1 L7 F4 A17 GD-13 Away: P10 W0 D0 L10 F6 A38 GD-32 Overall: P19 W1 D1 L17 F10 A55 GD-45 Their draw came at home to Breidablik last year following a 4-0 first leg defeat. In the context of this year's game, where the first leg is in Andorra and actually meaningful, one would expect Banants to come out on top with the away win sitting around the 1.33 mark. Interestingly, the odds are similar - slightly higher - for Levadia to win away to La Fiorita, and this looks a more solid bet. Levadia are well into their season, which started in March, and therefore have match fitness on their side; they're currently second in the league, two points off the top, having won 11 of 17 games. Sammarinese champions La Fiorita have made the step up to the Champions League following two years in the Europa League, but their record doesn't make for convincing reading having lost all four European games without scoring a goal. While Levadia's European record isn't the most impressive, they have eliminated Bala Town of Wales and Siauliai of Lithuania in the last two years which suggests they have what it takes to see off La Fiorita who are surely worse than these two sides. ~1.35 for a Sammarinese side to lose in Europe looks a decent price. The final match is undoubtedly the hardest to call. Gibraltar's first-ever European representatives Lincoln Red Imps won their league comfortably and their squad is considered to be arguably the strongest ever assembled in Gibraltar. Certainly, Gibraltar's national team has taken a few people by surprise, recording draws with Slovakia and Estonia and a victory against Malta in their five international games since being accepted by UEFA; if this can be used as any sort of guidance, it would suggest that their sides are not quite at the whipping boys level of San Marino. On the other hand, their opponents, Havnar, have European experience and match fitness on their side, but are invariably eliminated at the first round of competition. In summary, I would expect away wins for Banants and Levadia this week - the latter looks an attractive price - while the final game represents something of a step into the unknown. Should make for intriguing viewing!
  13. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th If you are genuinely serious, you should consider donating your stake to a charity, because backing a San Marino win here (or draw for that matter) is literally as worthwhile as throwing it down a drain. You can't reasonably compare Luxembourg to San Marino. As you say, Luxembourg have picked up a few wins in recent years. When it comes to San Marino, we're talking about a side that has lost every competitive match they've played since 25 April 2001 - 12 years without a single point in World Cup and Euro qualifying. They simply do not have the resources to compete at this level. In the game between the sides last month, Ukraine won 9-0. I wouldn't expect them to much that result tomorrow, but they will win and it's the closest thing to a certainty you will find in football.
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