CzechPunter Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Good call on Errani then. There is only one thing that I would like to say - please don't get personal here and don't start insulting others just because they have a different opinion, this is not that sort of forum. Just calm down, disagree when you think it's appropriate and don't go crazy just because things go wrong. Otherwise I will have to ban someone, which is not something that I particularly enjoy. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sm0k3rZ Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 have to say this bet looks spot on! welldone joeblitz! Djokovic vs Haas - total Haas games over 13.5 Evs >Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Think it's time to forget it. RB's first post did read somewhat aggressively but you can't always judge tone accurately from the written word. Since then he has been reasonable and hasn't gloated over the Errani result so there's every chance he'll be a decent contributor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 RuleBritanniaa. I have been very disappointed with Nadal this tournament. He is poor by his incredibly high standards. Wawrinka is probably playing the best tennis of his life right now but if he starts slowly as he usually does I expect Nadal's confidence to grow and for him to win easily. Would love to see Stan cause the upset and break through but dont think he will. I agree with you about Jankovic being up and down, just think she is back to her best. Again, would love her to win but Sharapova can usually outhit her opponents when the chips are down. Azarenka is ragged but don't think that even a fully fit Kirilenko has a shot to hurt her. Glad I only risked 1 point on Radwanska. Tsonga looking good though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Tsonga to beat Ferrer 13/10 Bet365. Buzz_Lightyear, 9/10 times I would take Ferrer to beat Tsonga on clay. Good luck with your bet on Ferrer. This time I believe Tsonga will win. First of all Tsonga is playing his best tennis of the season and second he will have the whole french crowd on his side. The occasion is very big for Ferrer as he has never reached a slam final. I remember a few years ago in a match here against Monfils in the quarters that the occasion got to him. What I see happening is Tsonga attacking a nervous Ferrer from the start and Ferrer making errors. First set Tsonga. Second set closer with Tsonga winning again. Third set a dejected Ferrer falls to pieces. It should be the other way around. Ferrer needs to start well, keep the intensity up and silence the French crowd and take the heart out of Tsonga. He is the better clay courter of the two. Will this happen? I don't think so. I think Tsonga's aggressive play, determination and crowd support will see him through to the final. Anyone who can go toe to toe with Djokovic on clay must be respected. Tsonga had 4 mps against him in last years quarters. If anything he is playing better this year. This is not any clay court match but a grand slam semi, therefore other factors come into the equation. That's as I see it. 6 points Tsonga. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-paddy- Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Hi, I dont bet on tennis very often, but here are my two bets for tommorow, I will appreciate comments from tennis experts. Nadal-Wawrinka, 1st set over 9.5 @ 1.90 bet365 It looks like Nadal starts his matches slowly this year. All first sets he played on RG have gone over 9.5 points. He even lost 2 first sets in early stages of tournament against low ranked players. I dont think that Wawrinka can cause an upset here, but he can give him good resist in first set, after that I expext Nadal to finish a job easily. Djokovic-Haas, tie break in match YES @ 2.10 bet365 Loot of you took Haas over 13.5. And yes, I think that Haas can keep this close in every set, Djokovic wont take from him more than one break per set. I took this bet because of odds, its bigger than playing on o/u points. Cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Paddy, I agree that there is a good chance of a tiebreak in the Haas/Djokovic match given two guys who are usually good at holding their serves. Just feel the over 13.5 games for Haas is safer. Nadal/Wawrinka over 9.5 1st set. I wouldn't put you off. I think it will be 6-3 or 6-4 for Nadal depending on who serves first. It could be less as Wawrinka can be a slow starter and I'm still waiting for Nadal to hit form. Many others will agree with you but I'm sitting on the fence on that one as I'm not sure. I'll be putting up a horse tomorrow with a 50/50 chance but any Irish selection that I give with 8 points or over you can back! Regarding any bets, if you think they will win, go for it and then you can have no regrets afterwards! Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disposal bag Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Wow what a match from tsonga! if he performs like this against Ferrer he can win and maybe win the tournament! what do you experts think of tsonga to win the tournament odds 12 at betfair. I think his current form is great and took him to win the tournament a few days ago as well before the match against troicki. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Well, I guess that we would all love to see him win, but the truth is that Nadal/Djokovic still deserve to be heavy favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul21144 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 I fancy Ferrer at 4-6 to beat Tsonga all day long here. Federer didn't turn up, and gave Tsonga many free points. As well as Tsonga played, I think Ferrer has the all around game to deservedly finally make a slam final. Will be close though! What are peoples thoughts on Haas v Djokovic? Haas could do something I think, whether that's simply a set or more I'm not sure.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Williams vs Errani under 18.5 games 8/11 Paddy Power Williams -6.5 games vs Errani 5/6 Paddy Power Williams will make mincemeat of Errani's serve and if she serves well Errani, like everyone else will have mega problems returning. I prefer the classical clay court style of Errani but it seems that on every surface the power of Williams is a long way ahead of the rest. Errani's only hope is to get Williams involved in long rallies, hope she misses a lot with her first serve, decides to give her the match like she did against Stephens in Melbourne or eats a dodgy curry the night before. I was expecting the line to be under 16.5 games to be honest, therefore I recommend both of these bets with maximum confidence 10 points on each. Guys, make the bookies pay on this one and steam in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigWheelerDealer Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 RuleBrittania, you really know your tennis and I am enjoying reading your posts. A little bit of confidence can often be mistaken for arrogance on forums like these but just ignore it and do your thing. May I have your thoughts on the Ferrer vs Tsonga match please? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Decent day yesterday with Tsonga and Ferrer coming through comfortably. Just the 2 for me today, can't call the men's matches as the markets look about right so sticking with the women. Maria Kirilenko vs Victoria Azarenka- Under 19.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Azarenka has won the last 3 matches against the Russian in straight sets, covering the unders in all 3 games and they were on quicker surface where you expect Kirilenko to get a bit more joy with her power. Azarenka had that little blip against Cornet but hammered Schiavone whilst Kirilenko struggled a bit against Mattek-Sands. Although Kirilenko is yet to drop a set in the tournament, I don't envisage her trouble Azarenka too much and depending on who serves, one break in each set could do the job here. Jelena Jankovic vs Maria Sharapova- Over 19.5 games- 20/23 BetVictor- (4/10) Taking the opposite bet in this game though and I think this could have some legs on it. Sharapova beat Jankovic easily earlier in the year but the Serb is on a decent little run now and has taken a set of Serena recently which not many people do. There's always doubt over Sharapova's serve so always risky backing her against players who can put some pressure on her like Jankovic can do. If one set is really close, that could almost over the over in itself but I think Jankovic will put up a fight here and really test Sharapova for the first time in the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Not seeing much anywhere so going with two small interest bets. Back Jelena Jankovic (+1.5 sets) to beat Maria Sharapova for a 2/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power Jankovic has found some much-needed form in recent days and she did indeed look very good against Hampton, even though the American was obviously a touch off on that day. On the other hand, Sharapova certainly hasn't been sparkling so far and this is going to be a fairly decent step up from the likes of Stephens and Zheng, so she might easily drop a set at some point if Jankovic keeps her game to a good level. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/jankovic-vs-sharapova-betting-jelena-jankovic-might-be-able-to-do-some-damage-this-time-around-20130605 Back Maria Kirilenko (+1.5 sets) to beat Viktoria Azarenka for a 1/10 stake at 2.75 with Pinnacle Kirilenko had to receive some medical attention in her last match, so I am going to keep the stakes to the absolute minimum, but I think that Azarenka is fully capable of producing enough blips to allow the Russian to get a set here if she is fully fit. From what I have seen, Azarenka is still far from her best, so I would probably have the set handicap around 2.50 here, not 2.75. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kirilenko-vs-azarenka-betting-maria-kirilenko-looks-value-against-the-world-s-number-three-20130605 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgebest Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Hi guys. Quick consultation (possible tip?) regarding Djokovic-Haas game today. Looking at the most aces served market, and my local (Spanish!) bookies have priced Nole 1.6 and Tommy 2.15. So far, in 13 sets, Djokovic has hit 10 aces (average 0.77 per set). Haas, in 14 sets, has managed 34 (average 2.42). Sure, Nole's the best returner of serve in tennis, but I don't know if that fact really translates into him actually being on the receiving end of far fewer aces.....I don't seem able to dig up that stat. As for RG 2013 thus far, in 4 matches, Djoko has received 12 aces (average 0.92 per set) Now, Haas has seen 33 fly past him, BUT.....27 of those were served by Isner! If we discount that 'anomaly', Haas's average reception of aces is 0.67 per set, superior, as it were, to Nole's. Conclusion: I have a fair degree of confidence in Haas's capacity to serve up more aces than his opponent, so 2.15 or similar looks like a tempting price. What do you reckon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 That does look tempting and I wouldn't want to put you off by any means, but a closer look at the meetings between the two where statistics are available shows that Haas probably indeed deserves to be that underdog in that market. In Miami this year, Djokovic 2 aces, Haas 0. Shanghai 2012, Djokovic 4 aces, Haas 2. Toronto 2012, Djokovic 4 aces, Haas 3. (His level went up after 2012 of course, so it is not a one-sided story by any means, but I think that the odds are probably correct.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgebest Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 That does look tempting and I wouldn't want to put you off by any means, but a closer look at the meetings between the two where statistics are available shows that Haas probably indeed deserves to be that underdog in that market. In Miami this year, Djokovic 2 aces, Haas 0. Shanghai 2012, Djokovic 4 aces, Haas 2. Toronto 2012, Djokovic 4 aces, Haas 3. (His level went up after 2012 of course, so it is not a one-sided story by any means, but I think that the odds are probably correct.) Interesting, thanks for that input. Still tempted, but perhaps not the entire mortgage! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazycoolkat Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 That does look tempting and I wouldn't want to put you off by any means, but a closer look at the meetings between the two where statistics are available shows that Haas probably indeed deserves to be that underdog in that market. In Miami this year, Djokovic 2 aces, Haas 0. Shanghai 2012, Djokovic 4 aces, Haas 2. Toronto 2012, Djokovic 4 aces, Haas 3. (His level went up after 2012 of course, so it is not a one-sided story by any means, but I think that the odds are probably correct.) Ladbrokes have Haas favourite to serve most aces at 8/11, with Novak evens. This may be the best of the match based on previous record Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Ladbrokes have Haas favourite to serve most aces at 8/11' date=' with Novak evens. This may be the best of the match based on previous record[/quote'] its evens on the exchanges so may just be the average price across the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clubgowi Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Maria Sharapova v Jelena Jankovic It is still hard for me to fully accept Maria Sharapova as a clay court player, but I suppose as defending champion and with two Rome and one Madrid titles to her name, all in the last two years, I have to change my mind. She had not won on dirt before that and I had previously made some comments, probably not original, about her turning with the speed of an oil tanker, this movement has improved a bit, but is still an issue for me. She was a little quicker and her movement better as a youngster, but as she grew in height it became more of a problem and she has had to adapt to it. Three years ago I would have laughed if you said she could win at Roland Garros, but she is 46-5 on clay in the last three seasons and that is the best record on Tour. However, she did withdraw in Rome, which as a two time defending champion must have been hard, citing sickness, but a couple of days later she admitted that tiredness was a factor, she had won both Stuttgart and Madrid and said that had taken it's toll. I still think clay is tough for her, especially mentally and she will have(potentially) three gruelling battles on the surface this week. Jankovic is a claycourter and a three time semi finalist here, in each of those years she lost to a player at the very peak of their game, two of them went on to win the title and the other was long odds on in the final (circa 1.20) and blew it. JJ is a six time winner on the surface and former world number one, who has got her game back on track this year and will collect a lot of ranking points here, possibly enough to return to the top ten. She has played Masha in six completed matches (never on clay) four went the distance and she won one of those.In her post match interview after R4 she said that she was "very happy with her game" and "healthy", this is a big statement for her, almost all tennis players are hypochondriacs (seriously) and some are always "injured", Jankovic is, or has been one of the worse, so for her to make a point of saying this, is a clear indication that she is at her best and obviously fit. Conditions will be a a little warmer in Paris by the time the tennis starts, but there will still be a little wind around and this will not help Sharapova, especially with her very high ball toss and career long problems with double faults, eight against Zheng in the third round. This is Jankovic's first grand slam quarter final in three years, she has waited a long time for this opportunity and I feel we will see the best of her today, I think this is a potential "upset" and I a very keen on her chances of taking a set. Jelena Jankovic +1.5 sets or you can get similar by "laying" Sharapova 2-0 on the exchanges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 So a good day today with all 4 of my selections winning. My horse was second but that's the way it goes! I'm much better on Irish racing anyway. During the Azarenks match it occured to me that my staking in Tennis is **** as it leaves me wide open. Most of the selections are odds on (not all) and therefore I think from now on they will be 10 points for maximum confidence or 5 for confidence as 2 losers out of 4 and you can make a huge loss. Maybe at the beginning of a tournament or during a smaller tournament I might revert to 1 point and 2 points. I have had the same problem with the horses which I think I have resolved now but think I will addopt a similar approch there adding 2.5 points each way where I don't have a 5 point win. I am quite happy to go in heavily when confident. It is the only way to make money. If anyone has any ideas on staking, I'd love to hear your points of view. Good luck and I will post my selections for the Azarenka/Sharapova and Djokovic/Nadal matches later. Don't forget to hit them hard on the total games in the Williams match tomorrow. She is such a diva but if she has her match face on it will end very quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgebest Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Interesting' date=' thanks for that input. Still tempted, but perhaps not the entire mortgage![/quote'] Regarding the Aces bet....... 11-4 to Djokovic! Thankfully I opted out in the end.....courtesy in part of Czech's comments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Djokovic to beat Nadal 13/8 Stan James I hate going against Nadal but he hasn't played with his usual authority. He was very vulnerable against the heavy hitters, even Wawrinka had chances today that he didn't take. This is Djokovic's chance although he has had his flaws too. Was laboured in closing out against Haas today (much to my delight). He beat Nadal in Monte Carlo and did so comprehensively. Nadal has made a lot of errors this tournament and to do so against Djokovic would be fatal. Djokovic is a heavy hitter, gets some cheap points off his serve and runs everything down. Nadal on the other hand is not getting as much zip on his serve but runs everything down. The errors though might undo him this year. I don't feel though that Djokovic is playing as well as he was 2 years ago. Djokovic must win the first set and if he does, he'll win. If not he will struggle. I just feel Djokovic will win but not with maximum confidence. Djokovic 5 points 13/8 Stan James. Sharapova vs Azarenka - no bet. Here is my view. Azarenka has been unimpressive this year and has struggled on the clay as she usually does. Sharapova has looked the better of the two and came back well against Jankovic. So here we go. Azarenka leads the h2h 7-5 but has pretty much dominated her over the last couple of years. Sharapova beat her in Rome 2 years ago and at the end of season championships last year. Azarenka injured both times. But Sharapova beat Azarenka last year in Stuttgart on clay comprehensively Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Sorry cut off in the last post but giving a slight edge to Sharapova Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfectedBoy Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Sharapova Vs Azarenka match can result in quite a few service breaks. Anyone knows which bookmaker offers this market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgebest Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Sorry for being tired and lazy and offering no analysis just now, but can anyone really doubt the value of a Nadal/Williams championship-winning double at a tasty 2.45 or thereabouts on the eve of the semis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Sorry for being tired and lazy and offering no analysis just now' date=' but can anyone really doubt the value of a Nadal/Williams championship-winning double at a tasty 2.45 or thereabouts on the eve of the semis?[/quote'] I fancy Djokovic to beat Nadal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfectedBoy Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Sorry for being tired and lazy and offering no analysis just now' date=' but can anyone really doubt the value of a Nadal/Williams championship-winning double at a tasty 2.45 or thereabouts on the eve of the semis?[/quote'] I don't really see any value in this because Nadal has failed to impress me so far in this tournament despite making the semis. I will not go for this simply because I feel that he will go about at the odds of 2.5 or more sometime in-play. So, you might want to keep an eye on in-play odds if you really fancy Nadal and the way he has lost first sets to Brands and Klizan, it might be possible after the first set only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfectedBoy Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Sharapova Vs Azarenka match can result in quite a few service breaks. Anyone knows which bookmaker offers this market? Anybody? I remember someone taking the "Total No. of Service Breaks in the Match" last year at the French Open but I can't seem to find that post in last years thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Haven't found any bookies offering what you are looking for, InfectedBoy. However, I am quite confident that someone will be offering such a market for the finals. Back Sara Errani Total Aces - Over 0.5 for a 2/10 stake at 2.37 with Paddy Power It is quite hard to call the match between Errani and Williams in terms of handicap lines and total games, but I think that this prop bet might have a decent chance of going through. Kuznetsova, Vinci, and Garcia all managed to serve an ace against Williams and Errani will have to try to serve out of her comfort zone today, so chances are that she will hit an ace at some point as well. I would probably have this at evens, so this price looks worth taking. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/errani-vs-williams-betting-sara-errani-will-have-to-play-out-of-her-comfort-zone-in-order-to-challenge-serena-williams-20130606 Back Maria Sharapova to beat Viktoria Azarenka for a 2/10 stake at 1.84 with Pinnacle Another match that is rather hard to call, but I am going to side with the defending champion. I actually feel that the match against Jankovic could do a lot of good for her, as she should now be fully ready and sharp enough for this challenge. On the other hand, Azarenka hasn't had to go out of her comfort zone just yet and might therefore find herself in a spot of bother against an opponent that should be able to come out swinging right from the start. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sharapova-vs-azarenka-betting-maria-sharapova-should-have-the-edge-in-the-first-semi-final-match-of-the-day-20130606 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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