CzechPunter Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Once again, please do mention the bookies :ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazycoolkat Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Djokovic Nadal is so close to call in so many areas. Best bet may prove the 2/1 with Bwin that Nadal serves the most double faults. 3 points. This area tends to be close between these two, but Djokovic has only served the most double faults once in his last eight matches with Nadal. Djokovic has not served the most double faults in any of his five matches at French Open yet either, Nadal did in an earlier round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Heading into the men's semis, I'm sitting on +45.57 which will hopefully improve after today. Literally can't call either semi in terms of picking a winner as both look extremely tight, but found quite a few side markets which I like. Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal- Total Breaks of Serve Over 7.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Novak Djokovic Over 19.5 games- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Over 6.5 aces- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Novak Djokovic to break serve first- 6/5 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Who wins this match is anyone's guess really as Novak seems to have Rafa's number these days and if I had to pick a winner it would be the Serb, but I expect it to be close regardless of the winner. It could easily go to 5 sets and it's hard to see either player winning in 3 so it's hard to see Djokovic winning fewer than 19 games and it should give enough time for plenty of breaks by both guys. Traditionally when these two play, there are a lot of breaks of serve and on the clay as we know, even the men's game resembles that of the WTA in that breaks of serve aren't uncommon. Although both have decent serves, they aren't going to be serving bombs and with the prospect of a classic, we should see at least 8 breaks. Although there should be plenty of chances to break, the weather should mean both can serve a few aces. Djokovic reached doubles figures in the ace count against Tommy Haas whilst Nadal served a few against Wawrinka. Granted both of these two are better returners than who they faced in the quarters, but the hot conditions should make conditions a little quicker and both should be able to hit 7 aces between them. I do feel that the odds are a little wrong for Djokovic to break serve first though as Nadal as been slow in starting pretty much all of his games so far and with the Serb's returning abilities, he is more than capable of earning the first break in the match with the odds above evens which look generous to me. David Ferrer vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Total Breaks of Serve Over 7.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Tsonga Total Games Over 19.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Total Aces Over 7.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Pretty similar bets to the first semi really but the lines look really off to me again. This could arguably be even closer than the Djokovic-Nadal match and it's not very often you can say that about a game. Both players have so much at stake in this match and it should be a thriller whoever wins. Tsonga if he keeps playing the way he has been, with that powerful forehand he'll certainly have his chances to win this one but as we know, Ferrer will fight and fight so I think this could really go the distance so Tsonga's game line looks on the low side, in which he could still cover it in 4 sets as well as 5. If the breaks of serve line looked low in the first semi, it looks way out of line in this game. Ferrer doesn't pick up a great deal of cheap points on serve, however his returning is up there with the best in the game so although Tsonga will pick up some cheap points which I'll get to in a minute, the Spaniard will always be a threat on return as Kevin Anderson brutally found out a few days ago. It would be completely understandable if both guys were a little nervous early doors in the match given how much is riding on this game but even if we only got 3 sets out of this match which I don't see happening, we could still get the 8 service breaks but over 4 or 5 sets, I'd honestly expect it to reach double figures. Although Ferrer is superb on return, there will be instances where he won't be able to do anything about Tsonga's serve and the hot conditions will benefit the Frenchman more than the Spaniard. In all honesty, if this went to 5 sets, Tsonga could clear the line in question by himself comfortably, but Ferrer should be able to hit a few himself which makes me think the ace line is too low given the warm conditions. The line seems to be based on Tsonga only hitting 3 aces combined in his past couple of matches, but they were both straight set wins and with the adrenaline pumping today, he should muster up quite a few more than those figures suggest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Nadal/Djokovic Total Double faults Over 4 @19/20 BWin CrazyCoolKat spotted a great bet above but that price has now gone. However I think BWin are offering a bit of value with this double fault market too. I make the expected number of DFs 5.5 (and so do some other firms) meaning this should be more like a 4/6 shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Ferrer/Tsonga Total Double faults Over 4.5 @9/10 YouWin Not looking like getting 5 double faults in the Nadal match but I think this one is an even better bet. I rate this one as 6.5 double faults so think this is a cracking price. For anyone who has an issue with Youwin, 8/11 is worth taking at PaddyPower too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazycoolkat Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Ferrer/Tsonga Total Double faults Over 4.5 @9/10 YouWin Not looking like getting 5 double faults in the Nadal match but I think this one is an even better bet. I rate this one as 6.5 double faults so think this is a cracking price. For anyone who has an issue with Youwin, 8/11 is worth taking at PaddyPower too. 5 double faults in Nadal game Jimmy so nice work. Luckily for me Nadal was responsible for three of them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 5 double faults in Nadal game Jimmy so nice work. Luckily for me Nadal was responsible for three of them Yes, yours was a cracking bet. We both needed the 5th set, though it was at the expense of my other bet (No tiebreak) which was a whisker away from winning but Nadal failed twice to serve out the match! Covered my stake by backing the 4th set tiebreak at 7/1 but that would have been the bigger winner for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Congratulations to everyone who won money on the Nadal/Djokovic match. I went for Djokovic and he had his chances but Nadal is the king. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Another terrible pick today in Tsonga reminiscent of my Radwanska pick against Errani. Clay is clay and the specialists should not be ignored! Again, well done to those who saw sense and backed Ferrer. No way back for Tsonga now. 11 points down today but still well in profit for the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Sharapova Most Double Faults @4/7 Youwin Missed out on the Ferrer/Tsonga double faults by one, Ferrer not offering up nearly as many as usual, but if this one loses I'll eat my hat. Sharapova's average rate of double-faulting is consistently 2-3 times that of Williams's. In addition, she will most likely be serving more points as Williams will be expected to hold serve more easily. All-in-all, I can't see this being any bigger than a 1/4 shot so 4/7 is huge IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Shame Tsonga couldn't take that second set tie breaker, could have been a different story then but credit to Ferrer, still not dropped a set in the tournament. +9.65 from today then, taking the overall to +55.22 ahead of the two finals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Nadal vs Ferrer Nadal to win 3-0 4/5 Boylesports Ok. So I know Nadal has dropped sets to Ferrer already this year and that Ferrer hasn't dropped a set all tournament and that Nadal hasn't been at his best but the bad news for Ferrer is that he is getting better and his best set of the tournament was against Djokovic in the final set. This is Ferrer's first grand slam final plus he trails Nadal 16-0 on the H2H on clay. I think he will start nervously and before he knows Nadal will be all over him and will win easily. Nadal to beat Ferrer 3-0 5 points 4/5 Boylesports Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Back Fastest Serve by S. Williams - Under 199.5 KPH for a 1/10 stake at 1.71 with Pinnacle Back Fastest Serve by M. Sharapova - Under 184.5 KPH for a 1/10 stake at 1.71 with Pinnacle Can't see any value in the main markets, so I am going to have a small punt on the unders in the serve speed department instead. Neither of the two have managed to serve over the lines so far in this event and I don't think that the fact that this will be a Grand Slam final means that we are automatically going to see the two producing huge serves. After all, accuracy is what usually counts the most on clay. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/williams-vs-sharapova-betting-huge-serves-might-not-be-on-the-cards-in-the-finals-in-paris-this-time-around-20130607 Back Bryan/Bryan (-3.5) to beat Llodra/Mahut for a 2/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power Llodra and Mahut have done well to get here, but I cannot see them doing much against the Bryans, I really can't. The American legends have been improving their performances with every single match and haven't even dropped a set so far in this event, so I expect them to prove that they are the best duo in the world by winning the title without any real difficulties. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bryan-bryan-vs-llodra-mahut-betting-the-bryans-should-be-able-to-dominate-on-the-big-stage-on-saturday-20130607 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 CzechPunter, I like your fastest serve bets. It is not something I would have considered. But then again I am on here to learn as well. The only danger with Williams is that if she is winning easily she may go for it. Hopefully you will collect as they will be too engrossed in the match to be looking to break those records. Good Luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Here is the total number of double faults from every Williams/Sharapova match I could get data for (all but two of them) in chronological order starting with Wimbledon 2004: 5 - 10 - 8 -9 - 11 - 12 - 9 - 11 - 7 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 Average = 8.9 So with great confidence I give you: Williams/Sharapova Total Double faults Over 5.5 @8/11 PaddyPower And just to add extra weight to my previous tip (Sharapova most double faults), Sharapova hit 80 of those double faults to Williams's 36. She hit more DFs than Serena in 11 of those 13 matches (1 match tied, I match she hit one less). 1/2 is still available at YouWin and Ladbrokes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 in yesterdays match between Williams and Errani i had a bet on Williams to win with a 10.5 handicap at 11/1 with Paddy Power also i had a bet on the 8.5 handicap at 11/4 and both won i had a feeling she would thrash Errani because of her power did anyone think of doing these bets and how would you feel about doing these bets for tommorrows match between Williams and Sharapova Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 I wouldn't be overly happy to be on them tomorrow, owenclass. Williams obviously has the quality to win by a huge margin, but then again, Sharapova has enough power to get the initiative at times. Errani was there for the taking, just waiting for Williams to self-destruct (which never happened, of course). Meanwhile, Sharapova can win cheap points on serve and she can also hit through Williams in rallies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Hi Owenclass, Easy for me to say now that I wouldn't have put you off. If you read my posts both on the Errani match and Sharapova match in relation to this I would have been with you on it or almost with you. As a matter of fact I encouraged people on this forum to wade into the total match games under 18.5 and the Williams -5.5 games vs Errani as I felt it was way too high The reason I took under 19.5 games in the Williams/Sharapova match is that I thought it was a safer bet. Whereas Errani doesn't have her serve as a weapon, Sharapova, despite the double faults does. Given that it is a grand slam final Williams could suffer from nerves. She lost a set to Radwanksa and Azarenka at Wimbledon and US Open finals after looking in complete control. When she met Sharapova in the Olympic final however she demolished her. Although this match is on clay it is between 2 power hitters and won't be played as a typical clay court match. I don't think Sharapova is playing as well as last year and Jankovic beat her 6-0 in the quarters in the first set. Add to that the fact that Williams has never forgiven her for beating her at Wimbledon in 2004 and has whenever possible thrashed her. I believe Sharapova will win no more than 4 games. But bear in mind that those sort of margins are very tight. Hope this helps and good luck with whatever you decide to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Does Sharapova choose to receive everytime? And does Serena always choose to serve first? Does anyone know!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazycoolkat Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Ladbrokes offering 5/6 for under 10.5 aces in Williams v Sharapova. Not amazing but certainly a fair price. Serena has served no more than five in last four rounds here and only four in the three-setter with Kuznetsova. Sharapova hadn't served more than four in a game all tournament, until sending 12 past Azarenka, can't see her getting anywhere close to that level here. This line hasn't been covered in their three meetings already in 2013 either. 5 points under 10.5 aces @ 5/6 with Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMD21 Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Looking at their past games on clay H2H and past 5 games for both Williams and Sharapova, first set ended up having less games than the 2nd. Williams first set averages 6.6 games per game, 2nd set averages 8.2. Sharapova's games average is 7.6; 9.8 games. Out of all of those games, only once did 1st set had more games than the 2nd. Sharapova vs Stephens. My bet is 1st set less games than 2nd. @ 2.5, 3pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Looking at their past games on clay H2H and past 5 games for both Williams and Sharapova, first set ended up having less games than the 2nd. Williams first set averages 6.6 games per game, 2nd set averages 8.2. Sharapova's games average is 7.6; 9.8 games. Out of all of those games, only once did 1st set had more games than the 2nd. Sharapova vs Stephens. My bet is 1st set less games than 2nd. @ 2.5, 3pts Please dont forget to add bookmaker when posting tips. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Three for me ahead of the women's final. Serena Williams (-5.5 games) vs Maria Sharapova- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Over 6.5 Double Faults- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (6/10) Under 7.5 Breaks of Serve- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) After the classic that was Djokovic-Nadal yesterday, I'm unsure whether this match will come anything close to that. If the recent H2H is anything to go by, it's hard to see Sharapova really troubling the American here. She's spoken out about how she'll need to change her tactics in this game to beat Serena, but quite what she can do I really don't know. Whether that will be to try and hit through Williams more or whatever but this is such a poor match-up for her as Williams is probably better in every respect than the Russian. The American has won the last 10 meetings, dropping just 3 sets in that time which shows how the American dominates this particular rivalry. Williams hammered the Russian 6-1 6-4 just a few weeks ago and it's hard to see anything other than Williams winning this one comfortably. Even when Sharapova dominated games, her serve is still a major issue and you always have worries over her second serve when watching her play. Add to that the pressure that Williams will cause the Russian on serve and the fact that you feel Sharapova will have to really go for it on her second serve then that leads me to think we could see a ton of doubles in this match. Sharapova could go close to covering the line on her own in truth if she really struggles, but Williams can add in a couple as well so I think 7 double faults looks on the low side. Given how I expect Williams to win in a couple of comfortable sets, that should mean there won't be enough time 8 breaks of serve. Sharapova should struggle to do much consistently on the American's serve and although Serena should make in roads, if she wins this quickly, we shouldn't see anymore than 6 breaks by my reckoning so taking the unders in the breaks of serve market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
novaizzz Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Whats about Ferrer to win a set @ 2.00 on Ladbrokes? He made a great tournament, dont lose a unique set, and I fancy him to make at least a set against Nadal.. What do you guys think about it?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Maria easily wins the double fault match bet and the over 5.5 was looking good when standing at 4 in the first game of the second set, but no more after that. Ah well, value is value though. Most firms had moved their line to 7.5 and one firm even 8.5 by the start of the match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 8, 2013 Author Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Back D.Ferrer/R.Nadal – Over 3.5 sets for a 2/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power Just one for me to end the French Open. It is obviously hard to see past Nadal here, but I am nevertheless willing to say that Ferrer is going to get a set. The most recent meetings between the two have shown that he can match the legend without any difficulties. He has done everything he could in order to get himself into a good position before this match, he knows that this is most likely his only chance to have a shot at winning the big one - and I think that he has what it takes to shine in Paris today, even though it is probably not going to be enough for a victory at the end of the day. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ferrer-vs-nadal-betting-david-ferrer-can-shine-on-the-big-stage-in-paris-20130608 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GazF1888 Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Nadal @ 5/6 with SkyBet not to receive a points penalty for time violation. Any of you guys reckon there's value in that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 8, 2013 Author Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Perhaps yes, although it needs to be noted that he did receive one in the semis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Nadal/Ferrer Total Double faults Over 4.5 @5/6 Ladbrokes Tossing up between this or Ferrer Over 3.5 DFs, both good bets but always good to feel you have both players trying for you! Based on their average rates of DFing over the season, I would make this a 4/6 shot anyway. But, looking at the figures, there is evidence to suggest Ferrer's rate increases when A) He plays Nadal and B) He's contesting a big final. And this is the biggest final of his career! Also, Nadal could leak 1 or 2 if Ferrer can keep it competitive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: French Open 2013 Nadal @ 5/6 with SkyBet not to receive a points penalty for time violation. Any of you guys reckon there's value in that? Has he had any others this tournament? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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