Tennis: Australian Open 2012

[totse]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Event	Stephens S. A. (Usa) - Kuznetsova S. (Rus)
Selection	Stephens +6.5 games (Asian-handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	19/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00
Reasoning	These two never played before, but Stephens is still young she is only 18 years old and her best success is 3rd at US Open few months ago, where Stphens defeat Sharah Peer in straight sets but was stopped in next round 6-4 6-3 against former number 1 Ana Ivanovic. Well Kuznetsova is big dog here but she is not in a good fit right now. Two days ago Kuznetsova dropped a set against Scheepers and a week ago she failed against Safarova. Kuzy was injured past week and maybe that's why she dropped one set in opening round, that is the key to this match if Stephens put her on a pressure making Kuzy to run all over the court I think she can beat this handicap.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Peer to bt Lisicki @2.06 Pinnacle LOSS

Bad start to the year for me. At least I know that Peer remains as lame as she was in the 2nd half of 2011 :@

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Greta Arn (+1.5 sets) to beat Dominika Cibulkova @ 3.14 with Pinnacle:ok:ok Pablo Andujar to beat J.I.Chela @ 2.49 with Pinnacle:wall:wall James Duckworth (+2.5 sets) to beat Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.89 with Pinnacle:ok:ok Aleksandra Wozniak (+1.5 sets) to beat Maria Kirilenko @ 2.20 with Pinnacle:ok:ok Frederico Gil to beat Marcel Granollers @ 3.85 with Pinnacle:ok:ok Philipp Petzschner to beat Milos Raonic @ 4.00 with Unibet:wall:wall Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova (+7.5) to beat Serena Williams @ 1.87 with Pinnacle:wall:wall

Well, great profit in the end :loon

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 So, only a small loss after with King covering the overs. Pity Bogomolov couldnt take the match in the end after leading by a break 3 TIMES in the final set......:lol. Some cracking calls in here last night again.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Belluci vs Monfils - Monfils to win (-5.5 game handicap) @ Evens with Paddy Power - 3 Points Belluci is predominately a claycourter and poses no answers to monfils counter punching antics. Belluci vs Monfils - Monfils to win (-3.5 game handicap) @ 1/2 with Paddy Power - 4 Points This is to cover for if the -5.5 loses basically.

LOL @ first set scoreline ... but then Monfils goes and bagels him :rollin Just about won in the head. :nana

Hewitt vs Roddick - Over 3.5 sets @ 8/13 with Paddy Power - 3 Points Both players are past their best, probably Hewitt more so than Roddick, although that doesn't hide the fact that there's been a diabolical showing to Andy's game in the start up to the new year. Lleyton is at home and has still not lost his hustle (As shown against Stebe) .. a few cmon's and fist pumps should get him a set in the bag at the very least you would imagine.

Always knew Lleyton would pull something out of the bag here and he did. :nana :cigar

Troicki vs Kukushkin - over 3.5 sets @ 8/11 with Paddy Power - 3 Points Troicki is one of the most over-rated players in the top 20 for me and Kukushkin one of the most under-rated in the top 100. The small Russian Kukushkin is talented and can certainly match Troicki from the back of the court, he possesses quite a lethal serve and Troicki will need to almost unquestionably mix it up if he is to overcome him. Kukushkin has just come off the back of whipping GGL in straight sets, whereas Troicki had to withstand Ferrero in a dramatic 5 set emotional thriller ... saving 2 match points ... physically and emotionally Troicki will be feeling it, whereas Kukushkin will be fresh as a daisy. I can see an upset here .. but in terms of betting I prefer opting for a lay which rules out the possibility of either wiping out the other in straights. :cigar

Again, the Russian does it and again I should have backed him for the actual win, oh well, still cashed in off him. :loon

Bogomolov vs Llodra - Bogomolov to win @ 5/6 with Coral - 4.5 Points Llodra isn't on the same hardcourt level as Bogo, Bogo is better of both wings, forehand and backhand as well as on the ground movement wise. Bogo's defensive skills aren't amazing, so he won't find Llodra a gimmie to break but then at the same time, Llodra's chip and charge shots, slicing and dicing stuff won't bear much of a problem for Bogo. Bogo's a seasoned pro now .. and will hustle his way to victory on this medium to slow pace Australian Open hard-court.

Absolutely devasted I lost this one, absolutely devasted .. had a chance to cover when Bogo was 4-3 up with the break in the 5th with odds of 5/1 .. didn't .. Llodra broke back and Paddy suspended all betting on the match. :wall :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall :(:(:(:(:( Bogo's defeat really costed me on the profit scale and despite being 4 out of 5 in the end ... still pretty much you could say feels like a terrible day... feel defeated ... all cause of one guys choke :(

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 ........

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 ....

[bigson22]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 I'm loving it - the way Roddick is playing if he goes a break down in the 3rd he will retire, he is playing on one leg. Your bet will be void then! :wall

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Thanks for delivering the bad news.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Wawrinka vs Almagro - Wawrinka to win (-1.5 Sets) @ 8/13 with Paddy Power - 4 Points Wawrinka is on another planet to Almagro and in grandslams its another solar system. Dimitrov had umpteen chances to finish Almagro off and failed every time, not that Almagro was clutch or anything, just that he didn't carry the right level of composure at the time. Composure wise Stan is better than Dimitrov and has that real spark that really matters in matches when both player's are really playing well ... that's something Dimitrov didn't have I am afraid. Baggy at moments was woeful against Stan but at other times quite good .. Stan capitalized on those woeful moments and weathered the storm when faced with the good... Dimitrov lacked that power to put Almagro away in important crucial rallies yesterday and I feel Stan has the artillery to do what Dimi couldn't, shouldn't really drop more than a set in coming through this one I believe.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Anyone have any thoughts on the Tomic vs Dolgopolov match...? I am caught in two minds... I believe Dolgopolov's the more talented player ... but something inside of me wants to go big in on Tomic cause he's the home boy. Dolgopolov is way too erratic and has played 2 mammoth 5 set epics in the lead up to this match.

[bookiebasher]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Does anyone know Bet365,s rules on tennis withdrawals due to injury as in Andy Roddick ??

[Atko]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Anyone have any thoughts on the Tomic vs Dolgopolov match...? I am caught in two minds... I believe Dolgopolov's the more talented player ... but something inside of me wants to go big in on Tomic cause he's the home boy. Dolgopolov is way too erratic and has played 2 mammoth 5 set epics in the lead up to this match.

Dolgopolov leads the H2H 3-0. Normally, that's a pretty damning indictment against the whipping boy. However, there are a couple of things that must be stressed. Firstly, since girl boy beat atomic in Brizzy '10 and Sydney '11, atomic has improved tremendously. He's matured and he's craftier on the court, more patient and more streetwise. Secondly, in Shanghai '11, their last meeting, atomic won the first set but then the rain came. The match was moved indoors and girl boy pillaged him. If the match had continued outdoors, in slower conditions, then atomic might have won that match, as he had the momentum. This match will be played at night, on Tomic's request. This will suit him. It'll be cooler and the conditions will be slower. The ball will be bigger and heavier and that will allow Tomic to sculpt the points easier. He'll also be able to deal with Dolgopolov's spin and slice better because he'll have more time to react to it. Girl boy is also suffering from a blood condition. Now I'm no doctor so don't ask me how bad it is, but he's struggling a tad with it. Tomic will have momentum and the backing of the crowd. He's on cloud nine right now and everything will be in his favour. I reckon he'll reverse the form and win but the price doesn't really hold much value. Might have to have a shuftie at the handicap and see what it's all about. That's my take on it, anyway.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Does anyone know Bet365' date='s rules on tennis withdrawals due to injury as in Andy Roddick ??[/quote'] Match line will be voided, as will handicaps. Don't know about the rest.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 After all that drama in the Bogomolov match, things turned around a touch with Mahut coming back well and Ebden just about covering the handicap despite getting hammered in the last 2 sets. The 3/3 on the women's matches really ensured a good night with +10.56 coming from it, taking me to +11.08 for the tournament after a poor start. Still have all 6 of my outrights going as well so hopefully some of those will come through.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Right I've stopped messing about with the Overs malarkey. It's time sh*t got real. Alex Bogomolov Jr to beat Michael Llodra @4/5 BET 365 Strength (7/10) Getting on this early doors. Cannot take Llodra's win over Gulbis too seriously; obviously the Latvian clowned around to a large extent. The Frenchman is 32 now and is not going to develop his game now to any meaningful extent, which should spell trouble against a grinder like Bolgomolov, who will, in my opinion, get Llodra in a big tizzy after a while and have him shanking balls everywhere. The Russian has really made progress in the last year and over five sets I can see him overwhelming the flaky Llodra and just being too darn consistent and motivated to progress in the tournament. :hope

One of those ones that turn out turn out wrong but at least the disappointment can be softened by the fact the match went how I thought it would for the most part. Bogo just bottled it. Shame, I thought he had more to him that.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 John Isner to beat Feliciano Lopez @ 11/10 BET 365 Strength (7/10) I know people think the Nalbandian match will take alot out of Isner but I think the effects of that may come later on in the tournament if he progresses. It was a long old tussle but it wasn't exactly Mahut-Isner, and it's still early on in the tournament and season. Lopez won't provide nearly as much trouble on return as Nalbandian, and their all- round games are worlds apart. Isner should be able to conserve energy on serve and Lopez's own service games haven't been that convincing for a while. Failed to serve out the first set against Cipolla, and Isner can be an obdurate son of a gun on return when he needs to be. He's been clutch on that score over the last few months. Lastly, Lopez is usually very average in Australia and at the start of the season in general, so overall I think Isner will come through this in four sets. :hope

[Dylan]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Another good night for most on here, great stuff guys.

Barbara Strycova vs Serena Williams – under 17.5 games 1.83 at Coral:ok Angelique Kerber vs Stephanie Dubois – under 19.5 games 1.73 at Paddy Power :ok Jelena Dokic vs Marion Bartoli – Dokic under 8.5 games 1.75 at Bwin:ok Anastasia Pavluychenkova vs Vania King – over 20.5 games 1.95 at Victor Chandler:ok

4/4 tonight for me and +3.26 units profit which takes me into profit for the first time this tournament having recovered from a first day beating. Managed to get 8 out of 9 winners in my second round picks so will hope to carry that forward.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Another good night for most on here, great stuff guys. 4/4 tonight for me and +3.26 units profit which takes me into profit for the first time this tournament having recovered from a first day beating. Managed to get 8 out of 9 winners in my second round picks so will hope to carry that forward.

Your picks have been very good mate, even the ones you've lost. Very good reasoning and lots of research :ok

[JusticePunting]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Isner -2.5 sets (vs. Lopez) @ 5.13 with Pinnacle I like this line, despite Isner playing five sets with Nalbandian it shouldn't affect him too much. Lopez is one of the worst returners on the tour, only breaking 15% of the time. Isner fired 43 aces against a returner of the quality of Nalbandian and played well in general, Lopez struggled on serve with 6 aces and 5 double faults. Last time the two played, three months ago in Paris, it finished 6-4 6-2. I think this line is far better than the odds suggest but I also think Isner is far more likely than the outright of 1.833. Falla to beat Kohlschreiber @ 3.24 with Pinnacle First things first, the H2H between the two of them stands at 3-0 to Kohlschreiber with one of these being a 3-setter on outdoor hard. This is a bit of warning however I'm willing to overlook this for the following reasons. So far in this tournament Kohlschreiber has beaten Monaco who was struggling physically in five sets and Riba who retired. Both Monaco and Riba are not natural hardcourters. Falla has started the year well taking a set off of an in-form Ferrer and beating Fish in straight sets in the last round, an impressive victory as Fish wasn't playing badly. On balance, I think Kohlschreiber has to be the slight favourite but at these odds I think this bet represents good value.

[Alovenac]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

2/10 Llodra - Bogomolov Jr. over 39.5 games @ 2.00 SBOBet :nana Good line for this match. Both players are playing good they last matches. But i don't know what i must think from this match. Bogomolov is the fav, but can he win this match easy? I think not. 2/10 Krajicek +6.5 games tb. Ivanovic @ 1.90 SBOBet :@ Looking for the over 17.5 games line. But this is a good bet. Ivanovic a not steady enough to win this match big. 6-3 6-3 is good enough for this bet. I see the Dutch lady win enough games to win this bet. 3/10 Raonic -5 games tb. Petzschner @ 2.00 SBOBet :nana Why is this line so low? I don't like the German here. Raonic is the player in form. I think he can win this game in 3 or 4 sets. But he is better than the German. 3/10 Troicki - Kukushkin over 3.5 sets @ 1.80 Betsson :nana Troicki can't win matches easy. Kukushkin playing well the last matches and i think he can win one set in this match. Troick will choke one set by 2-0. 4/10 Roddick -5 games tb. Hewitt @ 1.84 SBOBet VOID Hewitt playing not good against Stebe. Roddick playing good against Haase. Hewitt is not a youngster and i think he can't handle the serve from Roddick. But how many own service games can he hold? Enough to make this bet lost? I think not. 4/10 Simon tb. Benneteau @ 1.75 Unibet :@ Nice odds for Simon. Why this big odds? Benneteau playing good and playing a final last week. But Simon have more quality than they other Frenchman to beat him this match.

Little profit last night. Picks for tomorrow a very late this evening. Have not enough time to post it early :).

[owenclass]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Ivo Karlovic vs Roger Federer over 34.5 games 10/11 skybet a tough match for federer he has not been at his best but still winning but he should find it tough against the big serving opponent so maybe not many breaks of serve

[kronko]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Murray vs Roger Vasselin over 26 WIN ( Ebden) vs Nishikori LOSS Golubev vs Gasquet over 33.5 VOID Too bad for Ebden he was so close Golubev void and Murray was 27 so one good pick well no loses no profit.

[kronko]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Only one match for me Berdych vs Anderson -6.5 @ 2.24 Anderson is good server but he often gives chance to break so if Berdych take the chances he will win with more than 6.5

[Abdera]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Anabel Medina vs Li Na Anabel +6.5 stake 4 Over 18.5 games stake 4 Anabel wins stake1 I expect a very tricky match for Li Na. Anabel is in terrific form and full of confidence (contrary to what most people think, slow hard courts is its favourite surface), and her game does not suit the chinese at all. Long shots with a lot of top spin that flat hitters like of Li or Bartoli dislike so much. Medina leads 4-0 although the last encounter dates 2008 and Li has improved a lot since then. Medina herself has declared that she feels very confident about playing against Na and that if she had to pick a top-5 to play against it would have been her so we will she what happens...

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 I am tempted alot to go for Barthel - Azarenka overs (18 games). Azarenka was so far met only by Watson and Dellaqua, which is basically double bagel stuff for her. Mona has 10 wins in a row including a title from last week, and she could scare her a bit :-) edit: also considering Oprandi to bt Goerges - Goerges was full of UEs in her match against poor Danilidou, and had the Greece girl been healthy (she retired during the match due to pain in the back-neck), she could have had problems. Oprandi sent packing Cesca lately, which should give her confidence. And, after all, Oprandi did beat Clijsters last year, didn't she :-) What do you think?

[slider24]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Nina Bratchikova to beat Iveta Benesova @ 11/8 BET 365 Strength(4/10) Been mulling this one over for a while and feel it's worth taking on Benesova. The Czech has been a decent player in her career so far without ever really making a lasting impression. She has had a good start to the season, beating her nemesis Safarova, and Stosur as well as Peng, however it's also worth noting that she's had troublesome matches with the likes of Mathilde Johansson and Ursula Radwanska,and that's a microcosm of her career in alot of ways; failing to follow up notable victories with victories against players she should beat. Bratchikova falls into the category of the sort of player she struggles with and what's more, she's in excellent form ; only losing this season to in-form Mona Barthel and Jelena Jankovic. She's played alot of tennis but her last match was a handy 6-1 6-2 victory over the useful Brianti so her physical reserves should be okay. She's going through a little purple patch in what has been an otherwise very mediocre career and I think she's worth a go here, especially against someone as inconsistent as Benesova. :hope

[totse]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Event	Australian Open 2012
Selection	Serena Williams
Strength	10/10
Date	29/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 5.00
Reasoning	Serena has a lot of time for preparing to this Grand Slam tournament. She showed great fit in first two rounds giving to her opponents only seven games. Serena fit is good and I think she probably will become better and better after each following match. Serena has good record head to head against Kvitova who will face probably in the semis and I think if Serena stop Kvitova she will take this cup.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Couple of good nights for me recently, hopefully that can continue tonight. Due to the outrights, I'm effectively on Isner to beat Lopez at 2/1 and Dolgopolov to beat Tomic at 5/6 even though he is above evens for the match :lol Few others for me as well. Roger Federer (-5.5 games) to beat Ivo Karlovic- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (7/10) Biggest bet of the tournament for me so as the line looks a couple of games too low to me. Karlovic has kept it pretty close with Federer in the past with his bullet serve but I'm not so sure he will in this one. The courts aren't the quickest as we've seen and if Karlovic's first serve goes missing, he's really down for the count against Federer with nothing in his weaponry to do much in the rallies. The big Croat dropped a set against Berlocq in his second round match, and offered 12 break points on his serve despite firing in 20 aces so Federer should be able to create quite a few chances on return. The most notable stat for me though is his first serve percentage, which was at 66% which won't be good enough against Federer, even if he isn't at his best. He'll need to be serving up at the 75% mark you'd feel to remain competitive and given the courts and playing slow, I fancy Federer to come through comfortably in the end. Karlovic may keep it tight for a set but I'd expect Roger to win one set by a couple of breaks which should see the handicap through. Rafael Nadal vs Lukas Lacko- Under 27.5 games- 10/11 Coral- (3/10) Took the unders in the Spaniard's match against Haas and see no reason why he can't cover it again. He's been extremely comfortable in both of his matches so far and I fancy this to be the match where he really delivers the goods and sends out a message to Djokovic on the other half of the draw. It's a pretty poor matchup for Lacko really given how the courts are playing as he would have preferred the courts being quicker to suit his aggressive style. As it is though, he'll be up against one of the best defenders in the men's game on a slow court which spells trouble for the Slovakian. He did manage to bagel Nadal last season but that was when Nadal was suffering from an injury. In their previous meeting to that, Nadal ran out a 6-2 6-2 6-2 winner at the Aussie Open in 2010 and I'd fancy him to have few problems in overcoming Lacko again here. Alejandro Falla vs Philipp Kohlschreiber- Over 38.5 games- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Not been able to call any of these overs so far but hopefully these two change that. I was initially looking to back Falla for the match or even with the handicap but think the overs looks a better choice, simply because I don't see either of these guys winning 3-0. Falla has had a couple of really good wins over Fognini and particularly Mardy Fish so he should be full of confidence. Kohlschreiber virtually had a walk over in the second round with Riba failing to win a game and eventually retiring in the second set. Before that he was involved in an epic against Monaco in which he won the 5th set to love so he would have been delighted to have been given such an easy game in the second round. Falla will provide a much sterner test though and I'd expect most of the sets to be pretty tight between these two. Both players should be high on confidence after starting the season well so I'd expect both to be quite solid all round. They've met 3 times before, with the German winning all 3 but in their match at Wimbledon, they covered the line in 4 sets and Falla won a set as well over in Cincinnati so there's enough for me to believe this one may last a while. Few for the women as well. Kim Clijsters (-5.5 games) to beat Daniela Hantuchova- 8/11 Coral- (4/10) Been really impressed with what I've seen from from the Belgian so far this week whereas Hantuchova has really struggled in both of her matches. She's dropped sets against Lepchenko and Tsurenko and unless she improves significantly, it's hard to see her doing much against Clijsters. The Belgian was a touch rusty in the first set of her first match but since then she looks to be playing with confidence, and when she is like that, she's near enough impossible to beat. She's won 9 out of the 10 matches she's played against Hantuchova, with the only win coming for the Slovakian at the start of this season in which Clijsters actually won the first set before retiring due to injury which doesn't bode well for Hantuchova. In fact Hantuchova has only ever won 1 set against Clijsters, way back in 2002 which just shows how Clijsters really owns this matchup. They met at the Aussie Open back in 2007 where Clijsters won 6-1 7-5, and given the way both women are playing, I'd expect her to win with a bit to spare again. Jelena Jankovic (-4.5 games) to beat Christian McHale- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Wasn't entirely convinced by Jankovic in her second round match but she did comeback well and win comfortably in the end against Chang. She didn't look satisfied with her game during that match and I'd expect her to really be up for this match, given she has the chance to gain some crucial ranking points after only making the second round here 12 months ago. McHale has already been hammered by Kuznetsova this season and only narrowly beat Erakovic in her second round match so she'll need to up her game to cope with Jankovic, something I don't see her doing. Jankovic beat her 6-2 6-0 last season on the clay and given she should be motivated to get these ranking points, she should win this comfortably. Galina Voskoboeva (+5.5 games) to beat Agnieszka Radwanska- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (3/10) One dog I do like on the handicap is Voskoboeva who seems to up her game against the better players in the WTA. She's already beaten Wickmayer in the first round and was competitive against Schiavone a few weeks back in Brisbane and her powerful groundstokes could trouble Radwanska in parts here. Mattek-Sands could have easily beaten Radwanska in the first round but for some missed chances and her success came through hitting winners from the start which Radwanska really didn't look comfortable with. Voskoboeva will look to do the same and she'll put away any bad balls Radwanska gives her like Mattek-Sands did in the first round so I'm happy to back her on the handicap in a match she could well win.

[totse]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Event	Australian Open 2012
Selection	Kim Clijsters E-W
Strength	5/10
Date	29/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 9.00
Reasoning	Well Clijsters should not be underestimate till she is eliminated. So big odds for Kim former winner and last year at this time she was number 1 in WTA rankings. If Clijters is in good health no injuries she probably is the biggest favourit here. Of course these odds 9 to win are because she has tough draw Na Li in R16, Wozniacki QF and Azaranka SF, eventually Serena or Kvitova in the final. However I think we will see one or two surprises and that give easier way to the final for Kim. Clijsters is a fighter and I don't think she will give up so easy. I take Clijsters (E-W) 1/2 places.