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Tennis: Australian Open 2012


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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Event Dominguez-Lino L. - Ivanovic A.
Selection Dominguez-Lino L. +1.5 sets (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 4.58
Reasoning Dominguez is typical clay courter but past year at Wimbledon she took one set of Bartoli and lost another after tiebreak. It seems that Lino is not so weak player when she is underestimated by her opponent. I'm not so sure how confident is former number 1 Ana Ivanovic she lost in straight set past week against Safarova who lost yesterday in straight sets 62 64 against McHale. Ivanovic can not find the fit of her best days, if she is nervous can easy lost in straight sets against player out of top 100 we saw that many times in past three years. Domiquez is most experienced and if she put on a pressure Ivanovic I expect many unforced errors of Ana.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Event Stebe C. (Ger) - Hewitt L. (Aus)
Selection over 3.5
Strength 10/10
Date 17/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 1.67
Reasoning Well big local hope Hewitt is dog here but at that price I don't want to take him because Hewitt is in poor fit right now. He played only eight matches on this kind of surface past year, this year he took opening set 6-4 in Sydney against Troicki but failed 6-3 6-2 after that as Troicki is also in poor fit. I think Hewitt can not hold big level for a long time if he take 2-0 lead he will be in trouble because he won only one of last eight hard court matches in straight sets. Nine years younger Stebe played 35 matches on this kind of surface past year and won 30 of them. He is in good fit now and taking one set against veteran who is with wild card here will not be surprise.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Some good matches from what i see so far in the second round. Cipolla - Feliciano Lopez. @Lopez. Lopez i think didn't have the best of matches against Leonardo Mayer, would have expected him to win more easily against such a weak opponent but can't really know if he was bad or the argentine had a really good match as the match was not televised. Cipolla on the other hand was broken with Davy more often than Roddick's racket on a moody day, classic WTA match over there. Even if Feliciano doesn't play at full potential it will be very hard for Cipolla to break his serve. Lopez should break serve at least a couple of times i reckon + he is a very steady player in tie-breaks as well. Raonic - Petzschner. @Raonic, great start to the year, i can't really figure out how the german managed that 6-0 6-0 6-2 win against Rosol but i imagine the czech was hitting his balls off the radar because Petzschner really can't be that good. I expect Milos to kill him. Querrey - Tomic. @Tomic. Really impressed me with Verdasco. Not his play but his amazing game variety. Was 2-0 down and changed his game completely starting to hit the ball without any pace to cancel Verdasco's devastating forehand for which he had no answer. Really huge talent there. On the other hand Querrey has a typical serving-based game, no real variety, can't see him pose a real threat to Bernard. Stakhovsky-Anderson. @Anderson. Really the better player on hard court, great serving, decent volleying and a pretty good all-around game. Stakhovsky more of a clay-courter and a pretty mediocre player in my book although he has been known to pull off a big upset now and then, got Marchenko in the first round so i guess Santa came early this year, really no reason here to discuss their previous two matches, both had mediocre opponents so with this one i'm going with style of play and the better player.

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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012

Stephanie Foretz Gacon vs Elena Baltacha – Baltacha to win 1.50 at Coral :\ Casey Dellacqua vs Bojana Jovanovski – Jovanovski to win 1.50 at Coral :\ Polona Hercog vs Julia Georges – First Set Total Games = over 9.5 1.91 at bet365 :\ Irena Pavlovic vs Marina Erakovic – over 20.5 games 1.92 at Bwin :ok Evgenya Rodina vs Lucie Hradecka – Hradecka -3.5 games 1.73 at Bet365:ok Mandy Minella vs Jamie Hampton – Over 20.5 games 1.92 at Bwin :\ Virginie Razzano vs Marion Bartoli – over 18.5 games 1.85 at Victor Chandler :\ Vera Dushevina vs Petra Kvitova – Dushevina under 5.5 games 1.91 at Bwin :ok
Bit hit and miss and -4 small units for the first round. Like a few on here to Jovanovski as a larger bet as well as Bally but neither paid off. Still a couple of others were close, especially the Bartoli match, where Razzano kept a tight first set only to bomb in the second. Just needed one more game there !!!!!! Same situation with the Hercog match as well.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Some good matches from what i see so far in the second round. Cipolla - Feliciano Lopez. @Lopez. Lopez i think didn't have the best of matches against Leonardo Mayer, would have expected him to win more easily against such a weak opponent but can't really know if he was bad or the argentine had a really good match as the match was not televised. Cipolla on the other hand was broken with Davy more often than Roddick's racket on a moody day, classic WTA match over there. Even if Feliciano doesn't play at full potential it will be very hard for Cipolla to break his serve. Lopez should break serve at least a couple of times i reckon + he is a very steady player in tie-breaks as well. Raonic - Petzschner. @Raonic, great start to the year, i can't really figure out how the german managed that 6-0 6-0 6-2 win against Rosol but i imagine the czech was hitting his balls off the radar because Petzschner really can't be that good. I expect Milos to kill him. Querrey - Tomic. @Tomic. Really impressed me with Verdasco. Not his play but his amazing game variety. Was 2-0 down and changed his game completely starting to hit the ball without any pace to cancel Verdasco's devastating forehand for which he had no answer. Really huge talent there. On the other hand Querrey has a typical serving-based game, no real variety, can't see him pose a real threat to Bernard. Stakhovsky-Anderson. @Anderson. Really the better player on hard court, great serving, decent volleying and a pretty good all-around game. Stakhovsky more of a clay-courter and a pretty mediocre player in my book although he has been known to pull off a big upset now and then, got Marchenko in the first round so i guess Santa came early this year, really no reason here to discuss their previous two matches, both had mediocre opponents so with this one i'm going with style of play and the better player.
Dropped Feliciano Lopez, local beting agency placed him in their "superbet" offer, that usually means there is something fishy about the match.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

2/10 Kohlschreiber -1.5 set tb. Monaco @ 2.07 SBOBET Don't know. Odds maybe a little bit high. Kohlschreiber not in the best form of his life, but he can take Monaco in max. 4 sets. 2/10 Tomic - Verdasco over 39.5 games @ 1.96 SBOBET Tomic the youngster against a good Spanish player. I think this is a very close match. The winner will take the match in 4 or 5 sets. 3/10 Cetcovska tb. Morita @ 2.02 Nordicbet Reason above by other users, great odds! 3/10 Isner - Mitchel under 31.5 games @ 1.95 Unibet Isner will take this match easy. 6-4 6-4 6-4 is enough for this bet. I don't see value in other matchpicks. Isner is a great server on this surface and don't play good the last week, but he can take this match easy. 4/10 Berlocq tb. Huta Galung @ 1.85 Nordicbet I think the Bookmakers will underrated Berlocq here. Huta Galung is not a fantastic player . It's a miracle that he will play this tournament. 4/10 Mannarino +8 games tb. Del Potro @ 2.10 5Dimes Del Potro was terrible bad last week. Mannarino playing very well the last weeks and i don't think that Delpo this match will win easy. 5/10 Kuznetsov - Nadal under 27 games @ 1.87 Betsson Rafa like to play this matches. Everytime he will win this matches quickly and i think Kuznetsov win max. 5 or maybe 6 games. 8/10 Rochus tb. Phau @ 1.45 Nordicbet Phau are overrated here. Okay he win a nice qualify, but Rochus playing very well the last weeks. I don't like the handicaps here, but Rochus can choke maybe one set. Great value in this ML. 3/10 Haas - Kudla over 36.5 games @ 1.91 12Bet Low line. But Haas is not the youngster player in this tournament. He can't win this in 3 easy sets. Kudla playing good in the qualies and i think he can win minimum 1 set. 4/10 Young tb. Gojowczyk @ 1.63 5Dimes Why everybody like the German? Okay, he played a very nice qualification. But everybody forget Young can play very nice on this surface. He don't play good the last weeks, if he played better the last weeks this was a 10/10 spot. I think Young can win this match against the German if he will play good.
Superb... most of them turned out to be correct... good analysis...
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

2/10 Chela - Russel over 38.5 games @ 1.96 12Bet :@ I think a close game here between two routiners in this circuit. I don't know who will win this match easy? 3/10 Seppi - Gasquet over 36.5 games @ 1.87 Unibet :@ Last game was two weeks ago on this surface. A close match between this players. I think tonight Gasquet will win this in 4 or 5 sets. 3/10 Ebden tb. Souza CS: 3-0 @ 2.20 Betsson :nana Nice odd! Ebden played very well the last weeks. Souza is a unknown for me, a suprise that he will play this tournament. I think Ebden can win this match easy. 3/10 Sweeting tb. Bachinger @ 2.10 Bwin :nana Great odds for the American. He likes this surface and have enough quality to win this match. Bachinger is not steady enough and make to much faults in any match. 4/10 Llodra tb. Gulbis @ 2.20 StanJames :nana I dont know why Llodra is dog in this match. He likes this surface and i think he have more quality than Gulbis. He beats Gulbis more times on this surface. With his plays on the net he can make it very difficult for Gulbis. 5/10 Garcia-Lopez tb. Kukushkin @ 1.50 Nordicbet :@ Garcia not good the alst weeks, but i think he can win this match. Kukushkin is not my favorite player. 6/10 Malisse tb. Roger Vasselin @ 1.56 Betsson :hope Malisse play good on this surface and have enough quality to win this match. 3/10 Giraldo - Viola CS: 3-0 @ 1.75 Unibet :nana Easy match for Giraldo as he played with enough concentration. I hope he will not choke one or two sets. 4/10 Raonic - Volandri under 27.5 games @ 1.97 Titanbet :nana Volandri can not handle the service from Raonic. He played great the last year. 6-3 6-3 6-3 is enough for this bet and i think this will be a easy winner.
+7 last night. Totally ROI off this Australian Open: 123.4%
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

A few dogs to take tonight too, just for the banter ... - James Duckworth (v Jurgen Zopp) @ 2.75 with bet365 1pt Not much between these two in rankings and young Duckworth must be delighted with playing Zopp in R1. I mean, that's the easiest draw he could have hoped for. Don't think the Oz man should be this high in the odds and has a good chance. He beat Mahut recently and has been playing a higher calibre of opponent to the Estonian. Worth a bash at an over-inflated price. - Ryan Sweeting (v Matthais Bachinger) @ 2.00 with bet365 1pt Hmmm, hmmmm, this match should be close. Bachinger's somehow crept into the top 100 but that's a mistake, a quirk of the rankings system. Same could be said of Sweeting but Ryan at least has a bit more chutzpah in his strokes. Sweeting, for me, is the better player. He's got more power and a better serve, although that's not saying a great deal. The American ought to be favourite though and the fact that he isn't merits a little rocket ... - Pablo Andujar (v Igor Kunitsyn) @ 2.75 with bet365 1pt Andujar is a clay courter and plays like one on a hard court but, he's capable of winning this. Kunitsyn is a headcase, and has started the season poorer than an a Eritrean barley farmer. Andujar is more solid from the back of the court and has more variety. Once again, the odds look wrong. Kunitsyn is more au fait with a hard court but listen, Andujar's the classier player. Worth a small play too. - Mikhail Kukushkin (v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 2.62 with bet365 1pt GGL is another one of those players who has the ability to totally self-destruct. Kukushkin put in a nice performance against Murray a few weeks back and is decent on a hard court. He'll scrap and graft and scratch and claw and might get under GGL's skin. The Spaniard has beaten him before but he's such a frail player that he's worth opposing at these odds. Best of luck to you. We'll need it :p
:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap 4/4 for the outsiders :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Tipping at its finest. Well done Atko :ok
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Igor Kunitsyn - Pablo Andujar OVER 37.5 GAMES @5/6 BET 365 Strength(6/10) This looks like it will be a long old slog of match. Kunitysn favourite but he's better on faster courts, and he very rarely takes care of anyone comfortably on the hard courts at major tournaments and win or lose he's invariably involved in marathons. These courts are playing fairly slow and with the Andujar being a natural clay courter and being comfortable sparring from the back of the court, he should feel confident exchanging with someone like Kunitysn who lacks the power to really blow him off court, like Malisse did last year. Andujar has also improved on hard courts in the last year or so and should put in a good account of himself. All in all, this line looks achievable if both play to type. :hope
:@ Could some of these at least go four four sets please. Throw me a friggin bone here man!
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Roberta Vinci - 5.5 (A.Cadantu) x Monfils-Matosevic OVER 28.5 GAMES @ 7/4 BET 365 Strength (5/10) As Fishy mentioned, Monfils would probably contrive to lose a set against Ashleigh Barty if they played tomorrow. Last year he fell asleep against Federico Gil and lost a set, and in the first round against De Bakker was two sets down before coming back. Matosevic is capable of covering the line if Monfils switches off like he usually does. Roberta Vinci, despite poor form and not doing too great in Australia, should be far too strong for Cadantu, who has been spanked every time she's faced a top 30 ranked player. :hope
:cheers Luckily I'm still in profit, but I need to sharpen up big style. Well done to Atko, just swans back in and hits four outsiders. Class is permanent and all that. :clap
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 The dogs have indeed done the business ... but sadly, the handicaps proved a little unsuccessful. Never seem to quite get a hold on the lines during the Slams, so will have to be extra cautious on those from now on.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Troicki' date= V vs Ferrero - Over 38.5 games - 17/20 with UniBet - 3.5 Points Two fairly evenly matches players when you balance out the basis of talent, form and skill under pressure. Both can beat top 10 players on their good day, yet at the same time can both also lose to top 70 players on their bad day. Neither has shown much remarkable form, Ferrero had a decent finish to last year whereas Troicki kind of faded, however Troicki has had more match time pre-Australian Open. I would personally just give the edge to Ferrero, unlike the bookies, however I can say for sure neither will win this in straights, so the games line looks healthy.
:loon
Michael Bachinger vs Ryan Sweeting - Ryan Sweeting to win @ 21/20 with 32Red - 3 Points Both players are pretty even in terms and aspects talents .. both have pretty huge serves and both can volley decently and possess pounding groundstrokes from the back of the court. The one thing that does seperate them though in my eyes is the proneness to imploding, Bachinger is a headcase and when he starts to draw unforced errors, he starts to draw unforced errors. Sweeting possesses more composure and is better in clutch. I'd concern myself over this if it was a best of 3 set encounter, however the fact its best of 5 leaves me with a fair bit of confidence Sweeting will do the job.
:nana
Seppi vs Gasguet - Over 36.5 games @ 17/20 with Unibet - 3 Points Gasguet should win this, as its a best of 5 and the likelyhood of him having a torrid time of it for long enough is little, however I can see Seppi causing him quite a few of problems. Should take a set.
My lord this was ever so close, 3 games off in the end, first men's draw loss of the tournament. :wall :cry
Kukishkin vs GGL - Kukishkin to win @ 7/4 with BetFred - 2 Points Just a follow up on Atko's post. Kukishkin is definetely one of the most improved players of 2011 and for me last year was something he will certainly build on, I remember watching him really causing Nishi some major problems in and around the same tournament Nishi beat Tsonga. GGL is a headcase and I can see an upset here. Would have backed this but read the date of their last match played wrong.
Thrashed him. :ok PS: Congrats to Atko for a stella performance, truly sublime tipping. Personally wish I had gone with my gut and backed Ferrero for the win, even though games lines I went for covered a win anyway it does go to show, if you do believe in a bet don't be shone off by the generosity of the odds.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Atko can you please refrain from giving me hysterics from reading your writeups :lol Hilarious and on the mark mate, think you need to find that time to get involved more ;) On a personal note a really disappointing first round in truth, can't actually remember the last time I got off to a good start in the slam. Already taken a huge step to winning the trophy for worst shout of the tournament why thank you. Calling the overs in a game where one of the guys wins just 2 games. Would have been extremely interested to have seen that match as it must have been Rosol was terrible than Petzschner was sublime. Never had a blacklist before but the Czech may well start one. Still can't trust Murray in the early rounds frustratingly but my larger stake bets come through safely enough giving me minimal profit from last night. All the outrights I have are still going though which is a miracle as Dolgopolov and Tipsarevic looked in big trouble but glad they made it through. Overall though not the greatest start and I'll be looking to turn the -11.99 around in the coming rounds.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Same old stuff from Murray really, he'll never win a slam as long as Federer, Nadal and Nole are around. Good to see the old warhorse Hewitt coming through a tough one there, but I dont envisage much more from him in this event. He's circling the drain like Davydenko, for different reasons.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 The whole forum should make a pact to fade Gulbis in slam first rounds btw.....:lol.....I always seem to get it in my head that he'll win this time, but the guy is dogshit in the big events. Shouldnt be losing sets as convincingly as he did vs Llodra.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Belluci vs Sela-over 39.5 LOSS :unsure Rosol vs Petzschner-over 38.5 LOSS:cry Very bad day for me i'm sorry if anyone follow.Bad day for Rosol too very poor performance and too much mistakes.Belluci played really well he was better and he deserved to win.Hope for better days.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Two matches for me first is Y-H.Lu vs F.Serra - 4.5 @ 1.98 Lu is in better form wright now and they played before on same surface and Lu beat him easily I think that Serra is not good enough to beat Lu and -4.5 seems possible. My second match is Lacko vs Young over 39.5 @ 2.12 Lacko is good server and he often plays long matches Young is type of player who is not great server but he gives everything on court so I think that they could play five sets.:hope

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Feliciano Lopez vs Flavio Cipolla Lopez has 1.87 and is on 19th spot ATP. Onion (Cipolla) has 1.74 and is on 76 spot in ATP. I wanted to tip him against Davydenko as this Russian player seems to me that is not playing for points as for the money. But doesn’t matter now. Lopez with the first chance here, do not see him losing a set here and I think he can smash this guy pretty quick. 77% of the points won with the first serve for Feliciano - 12 chances of break offered – pretty much!!! 56% for Flavio and 11 chances of break offered. Lopez is doing well on return as I see from the last match, but seeing 13 aces for Mayer I figured it out that Mayer served so well! Under 36.5 games @ 1.87 with Unibet Tsurenko vs Hantuchova I foresee a 6-3, 6-4 at maximum in this one between no 21 and no 111 WTA. Daniela started very bad this Melbourne with a 4-6 against lepchenko, while Tsurenko eliminated Arantxa Rus, no 77 WTA. Expect Daniela to perform this time in my interval (:D). Under 19.5 games @ 1.87 with Unibet Schiavone vs Oprandi Another good bet here as Schiavone is a usual winner in 2 sets. Oprandi had a good draw and benefit from it as she eliminated Anastasia Yakimova, an easy opponent. Schiavone is not going to make any compromise here and she will want an easy and rapid win. Under 19.5 games @ 1.91 with PaddyPower

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 John Isner vs David Nalbandian I forsee a victory for Isner. Wanted to take over 41.5 games, but implies to many situations and in the actual conditions I do not think will have 5 sets in this one. Isner serve is like a gun. Nalbandian is not having a great service, but is good on returning. From these two lines, I see value on Isner. Add that Nalbandian played 1 set and a half with Nieminen while Isner played 3 pretty long sets with Mitchell. He had time to see what is not going well, felt the atmosphere of a good match and I think he is on maximum speed now! Isner @ 2.25 with Sportingbet Lacko vs Young I tipped Gojowczyk to beat Young, but this young fellow won 6 games in a row in last set. Strange, but now will go home. Lacko has a great service and killed Lubicic in 5 sets. I think will be much easier with Young. 27 aces with Ljubicic! Would you believe that? It was for sure the match of his life, but I think he can build on that seriously! Young is not playing great outside of US and I expect him to fail. Lacko @ 1.98 with Nordicbet Karlovic vs Berlocq Karlovic loves playing on hard surfaces as he had 21 wins last year and just 9 defeats. Berlocq is a clay supporter. Berlocq played good against Galung, but the opponent is 3 classes under Karlovic. Ivo served against Melzer 24 aces. I do not expect to see the same here, but under 40.5 games is most probable outcome of this match! Under 40.5 @ 1.87 with Pinnacle Sports

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Andujar-Alba P./Garcia-Lopez G. tb. Lu Y.H./Tipsarevic J. @ 2.30 with Betsson The logic is the following: Yen Hsun Lu has a match that starts 6 hours before this one against Florent Serra. The French won against Lu 2 times and lost once, so this match is not going to be so easy. Tipsarevic had a busy match today and will have to deal with Duckworth in 2nd round, the day after tomorrow. Andujar won 3-0 today and Garcia - Lopez was eliminated. I think this pair will try to deliver more in this doubles than Lu / Tipsarevic which are staying well on singles and can get important points in Melbourne from that.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

John Isner vs David Nalbandian I forsee a victory for Isner. Wanted to take over 41.5 games, but implies to many situations and in the actual conditions I do not think will have 5 sets in this one. Isner serve is like a gun. Nalbandian is not having a great service, but is good on returning. From these two lines, I see value on Isner. Add that Nalbandian played 1 set and a half with Nieminen while Isner played 3 pretty long sets with Mitchell. He had time to see what is not going well, felt the atmosphere of a good match and I think he is on maximum speed now! Isner @ 2.25 with Sportingbet Lacko vs Young I tipped Gojowczyk to beat Young, but this young fellow won 6 games in a row in last set. Strange, but now will go home. Lacko has a great service and killed Lubicic in 5 sets. I think will be much easier with Young. 27 aces with Ljubicic! Would you believe that? It was for sure the match of his life, but I think he can build on that seriously! Young is not playing great outside of US and I expect him to fail. Lacko @ 1.98 with Nordicbet Karlovic vs Berlocq Karlovic loves playing on hard surfaces as he had 21 wins last year and just 9 defeats. Berlocq is a clay supporter. Berlocq played good against Galung, but the opponent is 3 classes under Karlovic. Ivo served against Melzer 24 aces. I do not expect to see the same here, but under 40.5 games is most probable outcome of this match! Under 40.5 @ 1.87 with Pinnacle Sports
Killed Ljubicic in five sets!? Behave yourself son, you can't kill anyone in five sets. He was two sets down. More like he battled back. Perhaps you could say gunned down, or perhaps even slayed, as he was the lower ranked player. From reading big tub o' lube's quotes afterwards, he said he never plays well in heat and it was more a case of him wilting than Lacko turning into a cold-blooded murderer and killing him. I'd like to rephrase for you. Lacko edged past Ljubicic in five sets. How does that sound?
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Tomic vs Querrey - Tomic to win (-1.5 sets) & F, Lopez vs Cipolla - F, Lopez to win (-1.5 sets) @ 4/7 and 1/2 respectively - 1.36/1 as a double with Paddy Power - 4 Points As a double I can't see much going wrong here. Tomic to overcome a one dimensional player who won't live with him from the back of the court the way Nando was able to last round. Querrey hasn't had a lot of match time either, I'm talking real proper match time, at the top level. Aussie crowd and all, shouldn't require another 5 setter for Tomic to overcome Sam. F, Lopez should carry enough serving armoury to overcome Cipolla without 5 too.... Cipolla is tired after that epic with Davydenko and he is just quite simply not in the same vain of class and talent as Feliciano.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Killed Ljubicic in five sets!? Behave yourself son, you can't kill anyone in five sets. He was two sets down. More like he battled back. Perhaps you could say gunned down, or perhaps even slayed, as he was the lower ranked player. From reading big tub o' lube's quotes afterwards, he said he never plays well in heat and it was more a case of him wilting than Lacko turning into a cold-blooded murderer and killing him. I'd like to rephrase for you. Lacko edged past Ljubicic in five sets. How does that sound?
LOL I personally wouldn't touch that match as far as a match result goes ...
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