BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday

[Aidymac]

Soubriquet - Perth 4:45 Class 3 Handicap Chase Good To Soft Ground 3 Miles I was torn between Bescot Springs and my selection but ended up deciding my selection has better credentials. Soubriquet i feel has a good chance here. It is a previous course and distance winner and that was off a 3 pound higher mark (off 113, runs off 110 tomorrow). After its last win which came here at Perth his handicap went from 113 to 125 which was too much for it. Since then has been dropping gradually, down to 118, then to 114 when it had a good 3rd here over C+D in June. Ran off 112 last time out and finished 4th to Postmaster but that was on good ground and i feel it will relish the softer ground tomorrow. Is a regular in this Class 3 also and now off 110 tomorrow i feel it is now handicapped to win. Last time out it plugged on from a long way back into 4th, hopefully its given a more prominent ride tomorrow. Soubriquet won this race last year!!! Restoration must come into calculations after it was a sure winner last time out only for the final fence where it unseated, trading at a low of 1.05. However has gone up 3 pounds for that and is stepped up 4 furlongs further in a more competitive race tomorrow on softer ground. Solway Bay is a course and distance winner twice here and won two starts back here but that was off a mark of 110 and runs off 119 tomorrow, same mark as when struggling last time out and may struggle again. Bescot Springs i see as being my chief threat. Is a course winner and although it was a handy race it won last time out and the fact it was odds-on, it still won going away, is on a fair mark and has won on the ground and over the trip but it can be a very dodgy jumper, nonetheless i see it as a threat. Corrick Bridge is over from Ireland but i have seen this animal run and it needs a perfect ride, it comes from back to front late on but more times than not it is too little too late, it is hard to back this horse with maximum faith. Has a chance though St Killians Run for me is too far high in the weights. Was 2nd off 105 a few runs back but now runs off a mark of 115 and a strike-rate of 1 win in 19 races does not inspire me too much. Rossinis Dancer won two races in a row earlier in the year but has hiked up 8 pounds since then and may be still a tad high in the weights. Has also had a good break and may need the run. Supreme Builder another one over from Ireland who i have seen run a few times. Is far too prone to errors though and cannot place a bet on a horse with such an inconsistent profile. Bobs Ticket has been well disposed of in far worse races than this, even though it is lightly raced, needs to improve dramatically to figure. Power Pack Jack would have been of interest to me only for the 500 odd day break it has had. Has the form in the book to win a race of this nature but the long break is very off-putting and have to look away from this one. Failed The Test another contender from Ireland, lightly raced, has not been knocked about but still has not shown too much, has never really threatened to win a race as of yet and i would want to see more of it before backing it. Floreana has little chance on form and is 4 pounds out of the handicap. So all in all i think Soubriquet , who won this race last year, has been prepped to win this race again in 2011. Is also 3 pounds lower this time around and must have a big chace if prepped accordingly. WIN @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 4.55 Goodwood A good looking middle distance handicap likely to be run on ground on the soft side. Tameen is likey to prove very hard to beat and looks good value at 9/4 in my opinion for all it is a short price in such a big field. She looks a filly who is going somewhere having bolted up over CD 10 days ago by 8 lengths, runs under 6lb penalty today but still 5lb well in compared to new mark and clearly relishes soft ground and plenty of improvement still likely at such an early stage in her career you can forgive her the blip in between two recent wins when she was bumped early on and never travelled after. The other interesting runner for me is Blimey O'riley who hasnt been seen for 3 years having rattled off a hatrick in very easy style over this trip, gets to run off last winning mark which he won in very comfortable style. Its interesting yard have peserved with him and he has been gelded since last seen and does hold an entry for the cesarewitch and if he is likely to make the cut he is probably gonna need a few more pounds yet so a win somewhere soon might be important. Yard have had a winner recently and 20/1 looks a big price if all is well and ready to go. 1pt win Tameem 9/4 pp

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 16:35 Redcar Miss Blink Win (8,00) Bet365 This former distance winner, are in great shape and whit a form of 1-1-3-3-6-1. She got a win last time at Lingfield, on soft going but she her two other wins was under simular conditions, that she will face in Redcar.

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 4:55 - Goodwood - VALID REASON @ 10/1 Bet365 - Ran well for 3rd lto on return from break. Has won off 1lb lower and has run well on only start on soft surface. Just missed the 16s.

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 16.55 Goodwood Tameen - 1pt win @ 9/4 >Bet365 Tameen will be very hard to beat here after bolting up over this course and distance to win well last time out and the penalty today wont be much of a problem she will enjoy the soft ground and will very much be the one to beat

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 3.10 Goodwood Aye Aye Digby - caught the eye at Brighton on penultimate run, finishing 1st on the stands side group when the winner, Clear All, stuck to the inside and clung on by a head. Came out of that race and ran a fair race here latest, beaten a length and three quarters off this mark. CD winner, not won on soft but has form on GS so hoping he can get away with it. 17/2 VC Bet, 1 pt win

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 16:35 Redcar TARTAN GUNNA is very well-handicapped now on some of his form in 2009 and early 2010, but it may just be that he no longer has the same enthusiasm for racing that he did at that point but he should have everything in his favour today and if putting his best foot forward, will definitely outrun these fairly hefty odds. Mark Johnston trains the 5yo who won off a mark 13lbs higher in June 2010 over a mile. Races over 10f today but this trip isn't really a concern as he's placed in some very competitive handicaps over it. What is a concern is his recent form, which is pretty dire on first glance. However, his penultimate start wasn't bad at all (missed break, stayed on fairly well). Has even shown decent form this season when running at Chester to finish 6th. He flew home that day and wasn't far behind at all (rated 7lbs higher than today). To show his best, he needs fast ground and blinkers on, which he gets both of those today. Down to what should be a really workable mark of 75, he should go well as long as there's not much rain (not really forecast). He might have lost all interest in racing and if so, then he'll likely miss the break and make a bit of headway at the finish. However, I'll take my chances, as if he's back to anything like his best off this mark and grade, then he'll run well, especially with Mark Johnston going really well at the moment. TARTAN GUNNA; EW @ 16/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Kemp 8.20 - Sakhees Pearl - win at 13/2 bog wm hill There's a couple of lightly raced 3 year old maiden winners coming into handicaps who will probably head up the market here, but I'll take them on with an established CD performer who won this race last year and has a few other placed efforts here Comes here on a decent mark, a pound above last win, and ran quite well last time coming back off a short break and over a trip that's probably a furlong too far. Hopefully will come on a bit from the run and the stable is in better form now than when she ran a few times in the early summer

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 3:10 Goodwood - Sharpened Edge - e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365) A wide open 6f sprint handicap in the offing here but if Sharpened Edge is ready to compete on the back of a 52 day break, she could make a bold bid from the front to land the spoils at a fancy price. This 5 year old mare returns to run off a mark just 1lb higher than when winning a decent handicap over the minimum trip at Sandown first time up this year and a repeat of that career-best effort would see her have a decent here (although she may have been flattered by having the run of the race on that occasion). The Sandown race was also on quick ground, which isn't thought to be ideal. Today, Sharpened Edge tackles a furlong further but that shouldn't be a problem at a much easier track and softer ground is a positive for her, as stated previously by trainer/owner/breeder, Chris Mason. She has run poorly twice since winning that race (went too quick first time; blew start next, couldn't lead) but freshening her up for an autumn campaign could pay dividends and she's definitely up to defying this mark when conditions suit. The one worry is the likelihood that she'll be hassled up-front, as she likes to make the running and there's plenty of prominent racers lining up, which has to be a concern. However, I'll take a chance as 18/1 looks a bit too big and hopefully she'll run a good race. Small win stakes for me, as it's a selection full of risk and she'll either finish out the back or put up a very brave effort from the front. Cathy Gannon being on board is also a plus and it's her only ride at Goodwood before heading off to Kempton for a further 3. Jungle Bay was the other one I found interesting, as he's now dropped back in trip and has conditions to suit. I'm just worried as to whether he's up to winning a 0-80 h'cap, but he could be worth a smaller interest at 10/1.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday R3.25 Rowayton 1pt Win 16/1 Betfred On the face of it, this horse with 1 win from 27 runs should be readily opposable but looking a bit deeper into it, I think this could be a well planned gamble. If the horse drifts like a barge all day, then fair enough I've obviously got it wrong, but if the money comes, then that would certainly indicate the stables intentions. The current trainer has had the horse for its last 6 runs where it's done nothing and yet today he brings it over from Ireland to Redcar (where the trainer has had 1 winner from just 2 runners) and applies a tongue strap and books Robert Winston for the ride. Winston is one of those jockeys that often gets booked for these horses that have been laid out for a race. I think it's more of a "last or first" type race for the horse so I'll go win rather than e/w. Incidentally last year (albeit for a different trainer) it finished in the places off a mark of 82 (beaten less than a length) and it races off a mark of 57 today so it clearly has the ability, it's just a case of whether today is the day it shows it.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 4.45 Perth Restoration would have won but for a final fence blunder lto. Up in distance today and up slightly in the weights I still feel he has a great chance here.Ground shouldn't be an issue as he has ran well in it before so I'm confident of him going very close today. 1 Pt win 6/1 Bet365

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Perth 5.20 Doctor Foxtrot win - 7/1 Bet365 Lads WH Form went to a new level after the application of blinkers. Beat the very highly rated Rangitoto and then finished 3rd and 2nd in competitive handicaps behind the very well handicapped Five Star Wilsham and Pere Blanc. His last run at Haydock was one too many and after a break, I think he'll be freshened up to run a big race today.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Priestley's Reward - 2.50 Redcar (0.5ew BSQ 16-1) Showed very little on first three runs (starting very slowly on all of them), but was then only narrowly beaten on handicap debut (over 7f), running on in a style that would suggest that today's mile would be a much more suitable trip. Could now prove well handicapped at a fair each-way price.

[DM99]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Redcar 2.50 - Bedlam (1pt WIN 20/1 PP) First run was filled with promise but since then been slowly declining to the point where she tailed off LTO in a Class 2 handicap. She drops to her lowest grade so far and loses 7lb for today's run. She is in blinkers for the first time which can dramatically affect a horses performance. David Allan returns as the usual jockey for this steed, so I'm hoping that she can recapture the form of one of her best runs today.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Redcar 2.50: Bedlam 1pt win @ 18/1 Boylesports BOG Sorry to appear a copycat DM but had just literally selected this one then came on here to find it had just been napped. Can't resist it though - as pointed out by DM the horse has shown potential and today faces the weakest opposition to date due to a sizeable drop in the weights. First time blinkers enlisted could make a massive difference and has to go on the shortlist for this race which may not take too much winning. Think the Channon horse Lady Victory is also a big price but really fancy this Mich Easterby horse today.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 520 Perth: Los Nadis (6/1 VCBet) Interesting handicap and I like the course winner Los Nadis here, he tries 3 miles for the first time but has been running well over 2m4 and on this track he should get away with it. He's on a mark of 122 (he's won off 125 at Perth) which seems fair enough and has been running well on the flat recently to show his well being. I respect the Hobbs horse and theres a couple of Irish challengers that look dangerous but all in all i think 6/1 is a value bet here for Los Nadis.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday A few jockeys in this race are making the trip for just the one ride. I will side with the Jonjo O'neill runner, his last run was pretty bad that something MUST have been a miss that day at Windsor, that race was at the start of Aug so he's had a wee break and i'll give him a chance tonight in Race 4 on the card. Jockey Jim Crowley has always been top drawer in my world and he gets the leg up, he make the trip to Kempton for two rides but id say this is the horse he's came for, having said that he could ride a double. Kempton 7:20 Mauritino. 0.5 e/w bet at 8/1 Hills & Corals etc. T-Bone or Spam ?

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday TALKIN' TOUGH 5.20 Perth. 0.5 points each way. Wins this in a canter if showing best form, and no reason why a move to a new yard cannot bring about more like his old self. Would be well in on best form, the trip and ground's fine and he's at an each way price. 6/1 Boylesports BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Timeteam 8.50 Kempton. 0.5 points each way. Has the ability but is a bit of a nutcase. Fallon booked which is a plus and the surface and trip's fine. Enough about the race to suggest he can win it, so if his mind's on the game he should go very close. 11/2 Boylesports (bog)

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 4:55 Goodwood - Tameen - Back Hacked up lto by 8 lengths here last time over same C&D and in the same soft conditions that she gets again today. Looked like she was probably in a different league to this when winning that so could follow up here before moving on to bigger and better things 1pt win @ 2/1 Hills BOG

[stewartd14]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Many options today, but going with a longshot. 4.00 Redcar BILLY CADIZ @ 40/1 Bet 365 EW A poor seller here, and I don't like this favourite Doctor Crane on his first run for Dandy Nicholls. Ex class horse running in a seller is never a good sign. Billy Cadiz, however, goes off a massive 40/1 having shown some promise in his last 2 runs for the first time in his career. Ran a good 2nd 2 runs ago in a Cl 6 hcap behind Drive Home when sent off a relatively unfancied 22/1 shot on firm ground. Then went to Newcastle, where he didnt seem to handle the softer conditions. Despite that, he managed to run a good 4th. Back on firmer ground today, I think he can put in a good showing. Back up to a mile which may suit. On official ratings, this horse has no chance but this is a poor seller.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 4:45 Perth: Bob's Ticket 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 There is just the impression that Bob's Ticket can acheive more over fences than he has shown so far under rules. With a visor and tounge tie on today and Adam Nichol taking off ten pounds, he might just surprise. He put up some respectable runs in point to points and if he could just recapture that form he could go close.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 5.40 Redcar - Cayman Fox - 33/1 Boylesports Think the price on this one is slightly too big. Would perhaps prefer ground with a bit of cut but does have some form on quick ground. Back down to a winnable mark despite being 2lbs out of the handicap, won easily last year off 60, off 56 here. Showed very little at the start of the year but gone better of late. Three starts ago she finished second on the far side group, near side group were a long way ahead. Nto she reared at the start losing a lot of ground and was never in the race. Lto she was beaten 5 lengths in a class 4 handicap where her draw wasnt ideal, this smaller and weaker field should see her go closer. 33/1 is too big imo.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Sorry..

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 5.20 Perth - Devotion to Duty ew sp Not seen since ending campaign In march but did put up a credible effort on return last year at course so poss Its good to go today. Tailed off on this mark lto but did only go down by 1 n a quarter lengths off 3lb lower so although 10lbs higher than last win is still weighted to run a good race. Trip still bit of an unknown as only tried once when finishing 40L behind but has ground conditions to suit

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 20;20 Kempton Sakhees Pearl - Won the race last year off 75 running off 76 for today. Looks to be in good form going off speed ratings from ATR. Last run was caught in last 1/2 F and the drop from 8 to 7F should help. 9/2 Boylesports win.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Just unlucky there Southern.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday Evening Bets to settle

Kemp 8.20 - Sakhees Pearl - win at 13/2 bog wm hill There's a couple of lightly raced 3 year old maiden winners coming into handicaps who will probably head up the market here, but I'll take them on with an established CD performer who won this race last year and has a few other placed efforts here Comes here on a decent mark, a pound above last win, and ran quite well last time coming back off a short break and over a trip that's probably a furlong too far. Hopefully will come on a bit from the run and the stable is in better form now than when she ran a few times in the early summer

A few jockeys in this race are making the trip for just the one ride. I will side with the Jonjo O'neill runner, his last run was pretty bad that something MUST have been a miss that day at Windsor, that race was at the start of Aug so he's had a wee break and i'll give him a chance tonight in Race 4 on the card. Jockey Jim Crowley has always been top drawer in my world and he gets the leg up, he make the trip to Kempton for two rides but id say this is the horse he's came for, having said that he could ride a double. Kempton 7:20 Mauritino. 0.5 e/w bet at 8/1 Hills & Corals etc. T-Bone or Spam ?

Timeteam 8.50 Kempton. 0.5 points each way. Has the ability but is a bit of a nutcase. Fallon booked which is a plus and the surface and trip's fine. Enough about the race to suggest he can win it, so if his mind's on the game he should go very close. 11/2 Boylesports (bog)

20;20 Kempton Sakhees Pearl - Won the race last year off 75 running off 76 for today. Looks to be in good form going off speed ratings from ATR. Last run was caught in last 1/2 F and the drop from 8 to 7F should help. 9/2 Boylesports win.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday

Just unlucky there Southern.

Rhal was my other fancy in the race as well, thought the value lied with Cayman at big odds, should have savered :wall

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 21st of September Wednesday 9:20 Patch Patch @ Kempton - Hasn't been running great but is now off its lowest race mark.Jockey Adam Kirby has a 17% strike rate on the all weather this year and it has a good draw 0.5 pt E/W @ 8/1 Boylesports