Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread (That's all for today). Looking forward to Saturday racing tomorrow.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Alhaban wins but McHugh got Pilgrim Dancer into a bad position. Drawn 6 isn't bad in a race of 13 but he took him 5 wide round the bend and would surely have won had he got a better position in the race. Perhaps not, I don't know, but frustrating when he goes down a length despite being sent very, very wide.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread +4 jumps. +2 flat. Flat: Total bets: 313 Won : 42 placed: 81 Total staked: 899pts Total returned: 870pts Total P/L: -29pts Jumps: Total bets: 124 Won: 20 Placed: 25 Total Staked: 385pts Total Returned: 362pts Total P/L: -23pts Not too far away but can't quite get much closer than this at the moment. Struggled other than yesterday with regards to selections this week as I've had two exams but got all night to look at tomorrow so things shouldn't be so rushed and done on the day. Good to get a BBOTD in today too, so can't complain.

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Pilgrim Dancer was best horse in that race by a mile. Can't believe how wide he came. Glad to see you pick the right one for BBOTD :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Pilgrim Dancer was best horse in that race by a mile. Can't believe how wide he came. Glad to see you pick the right one for BBOTD :ok

I feared when he made his move. It's very difficult to surrender that much ground and win at Wolverhampton. Real shame because he had the favourite beaten also. And yes, I decided to take a punt at the prices today as we approach the end of the month. Thankfully the ground didn't inconvenience and I got on before a little bit of money came :D

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.00 Ascot - 5pts win Royale's Charter @ 7/2 (PP) Don't quite believe I'm doing this in a very competitive handicap chase with horses in form but I think Nick Williams' runner is potentially thrown in off his opening handicap mark of 124 over fences. I'm going with my gut instinct on this one, which perhaps will backfire, especially with an unknown quantity coming over from France since joining Nicky Henderson. However, that one is likely short because of his connections, and I feel that Royale's Charter will prove to be better than a 124-rated animal over fences. This horse has been extremely consistent over hurdles - after finishing 2nd on his only start in a 'bumper'. He was never out of the first four in his first seven starts over timber - including in some decent novice events. However, he probably just lacked the gears to prove a real success over the smaller obstacles as he was a bit one-paced and vulnerable at the finish. He always looked like a chaser and the fact he's related to chasers - including his dam, who was an out-and-out specialist over fences, suggested his future always lied over the bigger obstacles. He did, however, get his head in front rather fortuitously over hurdles when benefiting from a faller when scoring at Newton Abbot - beating a horse 16l who won twice since and is now rated 111. He gamely backed this up with a more deserved victory when pulling clear with Kings Counsel at Market Rasen. He won by a length despite a mistake at the last, and his rival on that occasion confirmed his form with two good runs subsequently to be rated 12lbs higher than when he went down to Royale's Charter. My selection has only risen 13lbs since that day, and that's what his hurdling mark is. However, this doesn't factor in his improvement over fences which looks assured. He goes to war off what would be a fair mark over hurdles, over fences, where he appears a more exciting prospect. His form in his chase career so far points towards being significantly better over the larger obstacles in my opinion. He signed off his hurdle career, for now, with a very sound 5th in a novice event trying to give plenty of weight to good horses such as Molotof. He finished a sound 5th having been outpaced over 2 miles and staying on again. His two starts over fences have been in very stiff company, which has allowed him to prove he's a threat at the right level, without damaging his handicap mark. At Hereford he chased home the 140+ rated Kumbeshwar - giving him 7lbs, on his chasing debut. An impossible task. However, he wasn't given a tough time and the way he finished his race off was highly encouraging, closing down the eased-down winner to an 8l defeat. He jumped soundly and the progressive All For Free was 10l further back. It was an even tougher scenario next time at Taunton when behind the 160ish rated Menorah. Again he finished his race off nicely but obviously had no chance off level weights seen as my selection is rated nearly 40lbs lower in the handicap. However, again he jumped quite well, and pulled away quite nicely under a hand ride from today's reopposing Suburban Bay. He's jumped like a chaser so far and the trip and track will be absolutely fine today. I think going handicapping over fences off the same handicap mark that he runs off over hurdles sees him very well treated. He's bred to be a better chaser and his runs have suggested that also. He's clearly in form, will find it far easier than his novice assignments, and could be too well-handicapped for these. Softish ground is no concern and he has a nice racing weight. Nick Williams has had 2 winners and 2 places from his last 8 runners so the yard are going fine, so everything points to a huge run from this one.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.10 Ascot - 3pts win Al Ferof @ 100/30 (Hills) My summary of the race is here - not writing anything else on the subject other than his price has drifted to 100/30 now which I think is a fair price. Question marks over the others, moreso than Al Ferof, and hopefully will be too good:

Eight horses are set to do battle on Saturday in the Victor Chandler Chase – here are my views… In a race that is sure to give an insight into the key two-mile chases at Cheltenham in two month’s time, the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot this Saturday looks set to be competitive – despite only eight runners being declared with four days separating us from the contest. Here is a look-through of the competitors (odds those of the sponsors): 1. Al Ferof (Paul Nicholls) @ 11/4 - Paul Nicholls seemingly hasn’t decided whether to opt for the conventional route of the Arkle for this novice chaser, or to swerve the Nicky Henderson-trained hotshot Sprinter Sacre, and head for the Champion Chase. Either way, last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner will have a live chance at the festival and appears to have every chance this coming Saturday. Nicholls has won this race for the past three years with his Champion Chase hopefuls, registering successes with Master Minded (2009 & 2011) and Twist Magic (2010). Al Ferof has won his last five races, including two over fences, and his 7l defeat of Astracad on his chasing debut was rated his best effort yet. The runner-up won next time out so there is substance to the form. It wasn’t quite so easy last time out when holding off the decent For Non Stop narrowly but his jumping was excellent and hit the front too soon. The forecast good ground will be in his favour, and must enter calculations especially if there is a good pace on. 2. Finian’s Rainbow (Nicky Henderson) @ 7/4 – Nicky Henderson has entered this horse in numerous races at Cheltenham, but the Champion Chase remains the likely plan, and he is another extremely talented chaser. He’s only been beaten three times from eleven starts under rules and looks set to put in a strong defence of his excellent career record on Saturday. Rated 142 over hurdles, Finian’s Rainbow has proved himself an even better chaser, with the handicapper having him at 157 over the larger obstacles. He was no match for Captain Chris in the Arkle but bounced back at Aintree in April. Those two runs were as good as anything he’s managed, and did well to win on his return at Kempton last time out. He made a terrible blunder at 4 out before Barry Geraghty galvanised him to take closer order at the last where a monstrous leap aided him to a 3/4l victory. Bound to come on for that, and his record is 3-3 on right-handed courses. He is, however, capable of an error. There’s every chance he’ll hit a fence or two and that is a concern for me at the price. Still, he has a huge engine and is sure to go well with that run under his belt should he jump well. 3. Forpadydeplasterer (Thomas Cooper) @ 10/1 – A likable character but has been the bridesmaid more than the bride in his career. Without doubt he is high-class, but has failed to land a prize since the 2009 Arkle. Following that thrilling victory, he went a staggering seven races in a row finishing in second position. This sequence included the Tingle Creek, the Cheltenham Champion Chase, the Melling Chase, and the Irish Champion Chase. The experiment to send him over three miles did not pay off and has returned to the minimum trip the last twice. Finished third on both occasions behind Big Zeb, and for all he’s likely to give another good account, looks set for a minor role behind those with a bit more speed. 4. Gauvain (Nick Williams) @ 8/1 - Ten of Nick Williams’ last 30 runners have gone on to victory, but his strike rate at Ascot is just 7% (1-14). However, Gauvain must be one of his better chances at the track, having been as good as ever this season. A progressive horse in 2009, he won three times during the calendar year, and made no mistake when beating Forpadydeplasterer in the Sinbad Testimonial Chase at Cheltenham on his reappearance in late 2010. Struggled at the highest level afterwards but bounced back at Cheltenham again this season eased in grade and confirmed he was still in peak form last time out when beating Somersby over further at Huntingdon. Obviously a high-class individual, but may be at his peak when fresh, and previous efforts at the track haven’t been inspiring. Needs to be on a ‘going’ day. 5. I’m So Lucky (David Pipe) @ 33/1 - David Pipe won the race with 12/1 shot Tamarinbleu in 2008, but it will be a greater shock should he repeat the feat with I’m So Lucky on Saturday. A good horse in his own right, he notched up his ninth career win at Sandown in April 2010, but hasn’t really shown that form since, for all he’s been competing in top-level races. Ran with respect last time out on his first run for nearly a year over hurdles, but looks likely to come up short against some of the best 2 mile chasers around once more. The yard could be going a little better, also (1-19 in recent weeks). 6. Oiseau De Nuit (Colin Tizzard) @ 25/1 - A six-time winner for Philip Hobbs and now Colin Tizzard, Oiseau De Nuit is a game 10-year-old, but each of his wins have come in handicap company – making his record 0-6 in pattern company. Won the Grand Annual in fine style at big odds last spring before following it up with a good 2nd in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree. Steven Clements took 7lbs off his back on both of those occasions, however, and that’s probably his level. Ran well at Exeter on his return this season behind Medermit before an error cost him any chance at Cheltenham. Improved stepped back to this trip next time out but was still beaten 5 1/2l in a handicap with James Best taking weight off. He did, however, run a stormer at Kempton last time when looking like he might hold off Finian’s Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking for a moment before being relegated to a good third. However, both runners who beat him on that occasion made bad errors at 4 out, and that was probably his chance to beat them. Another who appears out of his depth in the race. 7. Somersby (Henrietta Knight) @ 11/2 - Similarly to Forpadydeplasterer, this horse probably ought to have won more high-class races than he has. In fact, he’s only managed to win a Graduation Chase since his novice chase victories in late 2009. However, has proved himself as a solid yardstick in the big races, for all many have questioned what his ideal trip is. Thundered up the Cheltenham hill when 2nd behind Sizing Europe in the 2010 Arkle, but couldn’t go on from this in his three starts thereafter. Arguably put in the best performance of his career in this race last year when staying on dourly to go down by just a nose to Master Minded. His record at Ascot is good – as confirmed when going down by 3l to the same rival in November last year. Got going too late behind Gauvain at Huntingdon two starts back, but wouldn’t have been as suited by the track, and has a sound chance of reversing that form back down to two miles at Ascot. Outclassed when tried over three miles in the King George last time and an obvious player under these conditions – although the form of the yard and his style of running may mean he’s more of a place prospect than a winning one. 8. Wishfull Thinking (Philip Hobbs) @ 6/1 - A talented hurdler who took a few attempts to get the hang of chasing, but did not look back towards the end of the 2010/11 season. His jumping wasn’t quite up to scratch early on in his career over fences, but announced himself right on the scene of the novice chasers at Cheltenham last January with an authoritative victory over Calgary Bay. Proved no match for the top-class Noble Prince in the Jewson at the festival but wins at Aintree and Punchestown (A fine weight-carrying performance) showed him off as one of the best around. Was given over-positive rides in my eyes on his first two starts of this year in the Paddy Power and the Tingle Creek – trying to give bundles of weight in the former on his first start for a while, and went much too fast trying to utilise his stamina in the latter. Much better at Kempton last time, but got away from his blunder better than Finian’s Rainbow and still was worn down late on. The track may suit him better on this occasion, and the stable are among the winners, but he will likely struggle to reverse the form over the same trip. Summary: A mouthwatering race should all runners make it to post, but it concerns the front two in the market in my opinion. Finian’s Rainbow is probably the one they all have to beat, but has to come on for his Kempton run. He is likely to do so, but with Wishfull Thinking seemingly not quite at his best this year (not helped by rides), the form may not be all that great despite the errors taking their toll. Al Ferof looks the percentage call for me. Good ground suits him and he should get some pace on with Forpadydeplasterer likely to take them along. Paul Nicholls has a fine record in the race and his form/jumping looks rock solid. Somersby, Gauvain, and Wishfull Thinking can battle it out for the minor honours – possibly in that order.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.00 Lingfield - 2pts win Piscean @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) Bit of a punt in a competitive sprint but Tom Keddy's sprinter goes well under these conditions and is coming back into form with his mark edging down. He has another wide draw to overcome today but has twice won off higher marks including off 93 at Wolverhampton in November 2010. He's won twice at Lingfield and a strong pace over 6f really suits. His mark dropped over the summer when he was well out of form, but it was the case for all of Tom Keddy's small string of horses during this period as he failed to net a winner during the late summer and early autumn months. However, as his horses started running better, as did this horse, and his last two efforts have been sound. On both occasions he's met the sprinter to follow on the all-weather this season in Oasis Dancer, the first time off level weights where he finished a 4l second despite the race not being run to suit and horses better off at the weights in behind. Last time out, again there was not much pace on despite the competitive affair, and he raced keenly on the outside. Still ran well enough to be 6th of 12 and hopefully will improve again today off a further 2lbs lower in the handicap for his yard going well. There appears to be more pace in the race on this occasion with the likes of Fratellino and Thunderball seemingly vying for the early lead, and hopefully William Carson can get my selection tucked in and settled from his wide draw. He loves coming late and fast off a true gallop and if this is the case, is no 16/1 shot in this. His early exertions cost him late on last time and I anticipate a good run here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.30 Haydock - 3pts win Pearlysteps @ 5/1 (Hills) Henry Daly's charge is still relatively unexposed having run 14 times in his whole career to date. The horse is a big animal whose game always looked likely to be staying chases. He was useful over hurdles - to a mark of 127 - but he was always going to exceed that over the larger obstacles and has looked nicely consistent and generally progressive since switched to them. Chased home two nice types in Wymott and Golan Way over around 2m5f on his first two starts over fences - not beaten too far by highly-rated horses. The former was a real top-class novice chaser and the latter 142-rated at the time of their clash so it was no real surprise or disappointment that Daly's horse was beaten both times. Proved his staying capabilities when winning in a decent novice field next time out before being pitched into handicap company at Cheltenham over 2m5f - a trip probably a little bit short of what's ideal. He proved this as despite making quite a few errors - including several in a row, he kept responding to his rider's urgings and was close enough at the last when he made another mistake. He stayed on dourly up to the line behind the smart The Giant Bolster, and Vino Griego. Ran okay in the 4-miler at the festival athough perhaps that was a stamina test slightly too taxing. He returned to the track over the c&d Tommy Whittle handicap last time which was contested in bottomless ground. Even though this horse goes well fresh, it was no surprise to see him tire late on. However, he was still only 1 length down when coming to grief at the last, and it was a heroic run. He jumped noticeably better before the final flight and travelled ominously well at the head of affairs. If he does the same thing today off the same mark with fitness on his side, he'll be tough to beat. He's got a big engine and heart, and even though there are some higher rated horses in this than last time, he's entitled to improve for it. He relishes the conditions and can jump and run these into submission off what will be a relatively decent weight on very testing ground. Should keep out of trouble near the front and so long as he jumps as well as last time, can improve on his 140 rating which was reached when this aspect of his game was letting him down slightly. Deserved favourite.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread This is just getting ridiculous now. Max bet and a faller. Come on please.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Saturdays, Saturdays, Saturdays. 1 max bet falls, 1 3pt bet second, 1 3pt bet third.

[Kithanga]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I think you need to reconsider your staking mate. Re-read yesterday's 1 point winner and last Friday's 5 point selling race bet. In one race you only wrote what anyone else could have worked out from a quick study of the race, didn't take account of the claiming rider and class of race (consistency) or the obvious recent injury (off 454 days recently and down from class 1 races 2 years ago to a seller). And you max bet it. Ok, it's was unlucky to slip but hopefully you see what I'm getting at. In the other race you worked out that the track was perfect and had well researched reasons why your only doubt (and one shared by the market which resulted in the big price) was possibly able to be discounted. It wasn't easy reasoning to find and it had a good chance of being right and wasn't widely known. Therefore the big price and you had a minimum bet. To me (and I thought this when reading them at the time) I thought both were similar strength bets with the smaller one being slightly better if anything.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread One thing i noticed yesterday Rupert, was before the evening meeting started, you backed Altan Khan @ 11/1. It won, yet you finished the day breaking level (before the evening meeting). There has to be something wrong with that, if you have an 11/1 winner, you should be well into profit. I think the staking is way off, too many bets, and chasing losses. Just my own opinion mate, a bit of constructive criticism. Time after time you keep saying you never win on 4 point or 5 points bets, yet you keep firing them out. I also think you back too many shorties at high stakes, but thats just my opinion mate, doesnt mean im right.

[The Saint]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Easy way to find out! Crunch your results to level stakes and see if you are worse or better off! Am sure you do this anyway... Maybe also see how your profit/loss is on certain price ranges. Shocked me when I did it a while back.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

I think you need to reconsider your staking mate. Re-read yesterday's 1 point winner and last Friday's 5 point selling race bet. In one race you only wrote what anyone else could have worked out from a quick study of the race, didn't take account of the claiming rider and class of race (consistency) or the obvious recent injury (off 454 days recently and down from class 1 races 2 years ago to a seller). And you max bet it. Ok, it's was unlucky to slip but hopefully you see what I'm getting at. In the other race you worked out that the track was perfect and had well researched reasons why your only doubt (and one shared by the market which resulted in the big price) was possibly able to be discounted. It wasn't easy reasoning to find and it had a good chance of being right and wasn't widely known. Therefore the big price and you had a minimum bet. To me (and I thought this when reading them at the time) I thought both were similar strength bets with the smaller one being slightly better if anything.

I was a lot more confident with Kickahead than I was with Altan Khan. One had conditions to suit and was the best horse in the race IMO (and by the way, just because I might not post every little bit of thought-process, it doesn't mean I haven't considered it). Altan Khan could easily have flopped on the soft ground. I genuinely wasn't sure whether he'd be fine on it. The horse was very much unproven under the conditions so it was a small bet. There's my logic. One I failed to see any notable doubts over, whilst the other there was a serious question mark over. That's why there was a big difference in the staking. It's opinions, though. One person can say something's a good bet and another person can say otherwise. If I don't go with my instinct and use my methods of finding winners then I may as well give up and just follow other people's tips.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

One thing i noticed yesterday Rupert' date=' was before the evening meeting started, you backed Altan Khan @ 11/1. It won, yet you finished the day breaking level (before the evening meeting). There has to be something wrong with that, if you have an 11/1 winner, you should be well into profit. I think the staking is way off, too many bets, and chasing losses. Just my own opinion mate, a bit of constructive criticism. Time after time you keep saying you never win on 4 point or 5 points bets, yet you keep firing them out. I also think you back too many shorties at high stakes, but thats just my opinion mate, doesnt mean im right.[/quote'] Personally I think each bet should be made on its own merit, discounting any other bets on the day. I don't believe you should look at a bet - say 1pt win @ 11/1 and think shit, I should reduce my stakes on my better fancied selections just because if they don't win and my 11/1 shot does, I won't make a profit. That's just my opinion. It's so easy to say the staking is off when you have the results in front of you. Obviously it appears that way when the bigger bets aren't going in, but if I had a big bet on Altan Khan, you'd think I was bonkers before the off and chasing losses, I'm sure. Too many bets is again, obviously down to personal preference. Sometimes I fancy more horses than on other occasions. If I was really selective yesterday, for example, I'd have missed out on a nice winner, if you see what I mean. And I'm not going to stop putting big bets on horses I really fancy. Yes I'm probably going to cut down on real shorties but today, for example, I haven't fancied a horse more for quite a long time. Therefore, I'm backing myself to have a big bet. He came down. That's extremely frustrating, I'm sure you'd agree. When you've studied a race/horse for a long time and have come to a conclusion, it's gutting when you don't even get a run for your money. I remain that the big bets I've had have on the whole been justified by my methods. Certainly recently. If they go in, it's a great tip, if it doesn't, people think you're stupid. Obviously the staking's not worked out, but that doesn't mean the thought-process isn't correct. I don't just randomly assign the size of bets, it genuinely is on a scale of confidence and factors in the race. If you bring your staking well down because your big bets aren't doing it, you're not going to win very much in the long run because when your confident bets are going in as you expect, you don't get much reward. As for chasing losses, like I've said before, it 100% isn't the case. I can see why it appears that way on some occasions, but it's not. I'm fairly content with how things have been going over the last couple of weeks and my loss relatively speaking is marginal considering around 1300pts have been staked in this thread so a figure of -60pts overall isn't too concerning for me. Especially considering people mentioned how the jumps season was going at the start for me etc (not forgetting the thread was at -70pts after the flat season! I wasn't seemingly chasing losses at this point because I started the season well - but I am now even though overall I haven't made a loss since then. At the end of the day, everyone is welcome to their opinions, and I accept and will discussion any feedback offered. It's not all that motivational to be studying form etc for hours each night when things aren't going great, but I've continued to do so and strive to improve. I have to back myself because I can't be that bad at picking them (Profit in the BBOTD competition overall with over 300 bets), for example. The staking hasn't paid off but I genuinely think it can be turned around without being overly conservative. Had my very confident 5pt selection today not fallen over, he may have won. Had that one gone in and one of my placed horses also today, I think I'd be in profit for the jumps. It's such a fine line, and I see how people may think it's foolish when max bets don't win, but personally, I think it would be equally foolish to be too frightened to bet accordingly when I am extremely confident on a selection relative to others. Thanks for your input. Some points are perhaps valid, and with all due respect, I don't necessarily agree with some either. But they're on board.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Great write up Rupert, i understand your methods more now. :ok I was just explaining how it looked to me, its just an opinion mate.

[Kithanga]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Totally agree that you have to back your own opinion mate and there's nothing wrong with your reasoning on the bets either. As you say, up on the BBOTD. Interesting that it's level stakes in that competition though. However, as you said it's got to be a method that you're comfortable with yourself and if you are ok with your staking that's good. Best of luck with the rest of the thread and hope some of the big uns come in for you. :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Great write up Rupert, i understand your methods more now. :ok I was just explaining how it looked to me, its just an opinion mate.

I'm not saying they're foolproof at all, or anything, but I just don't want people to think I'm blowing it for the sake of it or just because I'm a bit pissed off with how things are going every time I lose a few points in a day (I could probably admit that semblances of that have occured maybe once or twice), but my selections have been thought-through recently 100% since I had a bit of a wake-up call a few weeks ago. One thing I'd like to note is that I don't tend to look at evening racecards until the day because I get exhausted quite easily if I'm studying 3 afternoon cards so I can't really hack another before bed! :lol I agree that 3pt, 4pt, 5pts staked do look fairly big but I suppose it's all relative really. Considering I rarely have 1pt bets, most of my bets are 2, 3, or 4 point bets. Essentially these are my 1pt, 2pt and 3pt bets for other 'tipsters' with the odd max bet. If you see what I mean, a -40pt record for someone who bets with small points looks better than -60pts for someone who bets with slightly bigger points. But is it really better? Anyway, not going to get bogged down in it. I guess my point is, I don't want to be in fear of having a big bet on something I fancy. My judgements haven't been far wrong - I guess that's what I'm trying to get at. Yes you're scrutinised when they don't win, but their performances have suggested that the thought-processes weren't necessarily bad. 1/2l 2nd (won next two races!) Faller when in contention 1 1/4l 2nd Dead-heat 3rd 2nd 1 1/2l 3rd (won next time out) 1/2l 2nd Faller when in contention Faller when in contention They are my last 10 max bets. This is the reason I don't necessarily want to stop them - because they aren't all that wayward. They just haven't quite done the job...the fine lines between success and failure.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Totally agree that you have to back your own opinion mate and there's nothing wrong with your reasoning on the bets either. As you say, up on the BBOTD. Interesting that it's level stakes in that competition though. However, as you said it's got to be a method that you're comfortable with yourself and if you are ok with your staking that's good. Best of luck with the rest of the thread and hope some of the big uns come in for you. :ok

The BBOTD competition proves that I get the staking wrong. But their chances are the basis of the stakes in my opinion. Maybe I'll reverse the stakes of two horses from now on and see if my least fancied horse can hack up under a 5pt bet :lol PS: I'm going for a beer now :beer

[The Saint]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread One of the reasons I have to use level staking for the win part of my bets is that I would be constantly beating myself up if I got them the wrong way round and it would not be good for my punting long term!! Pleased to see you don't suffer from this but it is always worth consideration. Excellent replies - I'm gonna join you on the beer front!! Knackered!!!! Think the occasional Sunday should be a completely race free day!:zzz

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.10 Towcester - 3pts win Bohemian Rock @ 11/2 (Bet365) Weak handicap chase where I find issues with quite a lot of horses in the field. My selection is not infallible, but I think has a lot more going for him than plenty of his rivals. Caroline Bailey's horse has run some good races at a low level over fences over the past year, and managed to get his head in front for the first time over this c&d back in December. Was ahead by a length come the line with a mile back to the third horse. He's gone well at this track before, also, so it clearly suits, but he flopped over 2m4f next time with the tongue-tie revoked. Whether this was a reason for his failure to jump soundly enough - which essentially cost him any hope in the race. The tongue-tie back on with the cheekpieces last time at Huntingdon, he ran a much better race behind subsequent 11l scorer Star Galaxy. That horse was/is obviously well handicapped and he also had Kinkeel in behind that day with the pair racing off the same weights today. He's clearly in decent form and the return back to Towcester will suit. Chestnut Ben is in form but this test might just worry him out of it close home. An easier track may well suit him - especially on soft ground, and his jumping is also a concern. Will let him win at the price if I'm wrong. Kinkeel isn't weighted to reverse form with my selection and Drom needs to improve his jumping. Ran ok at Warwick in November but also has a drop to 2 miles which isn't sure to suit him - likewise with Billy Murphy. Andrew Thornton is here for one ride, and hopefully it will be a worthwhile one.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.30 Market Rasen - 2pts win Frontier Dancer @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Intriguing handicap hurdle but Lawney Hill has brought this horse back to life after a rather tepid spell for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and looks capable off a mark of 131 with David Bass taking off 3lbs, considering he's placed off 135 at his peak for his former yard. He lost his way over fences and was a big disappointment over further at Perth in a handicap hurdle race in April. However, the switch in yard clearly had a positive effect as he rallied powerfully over 3 miles on soft ground to win having made a mistake at the last on his return to the track at Ffos Las off 122. Bound to come on for that, plus he would have won further but for his error at the last, Bass was on board that day so knows this horse. Flopped badly at Newbury next time out but I can forgive him that considering he bounced back well last time at Kempton in a good race. He was hampered between the last two but stayed on well to finish a 2l 2nd in a very solid handicap which has been franked since. Edging up the weights but should get a nice pace to travel off here and stays further which is a positive in this ground and 8/1 is a fair price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.25 Kempton - 2pts win Jackie Love @ 10/1 (Bet365) I think the favourite is worth opposing up 6lbs for all conditions are there to suit, and she may be vulnerable at the death to a closer. Jackie Love is a closer under these conditions and looks fairly handicapped to win again with conditions to suit. Got her first win off just 3lbs lower by a length over c&d in December but blew her chance at the start at Wolverhampton next time out. Was drawn very wide in 14 when finishing a 2l 7th last time out. Has a 7lb swing with the winner today and looks capable of finishing well from her much better draw, as long as she starts ok.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Drifters are such a pain for punters. We have no idea the horse isn't going to run well until he drifts close to the off. You have to place bets 2 mins before post time to ensure your horse isn't likely to flop.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I've stopped watching the market on Betfair in the lead up to a race, it affects you psychologically and makes you needlessly cynical. If you watch a race without knowing your horse was a drifter, half the time you wouldn't even think anything dodgy was going on. Don't get me wrong though, I think it's disgusting when they drift markedly and the jockey doesn't ride the horse to it's strengths/goes wide/goes for worse ground, but it happens unfortunately!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

I've stopped watching the market on Betfair in the lead up to a race, it affects you psychologically and makes you needlessly cynical. If you watch a race without knowing your horse was a drifter, half the time you wouldn't even think anything dodgy was going on. Don't get me wrong though, I think it's disgusting when they drift markedly and the jockey doesn't ride the horse to it's strengths/goes wide/goes for worse ground, but it happens unfortunately!

Just a shame when you back a horse with obviously a good chance on the book and you know your bet is lost before they start. Can't remember many of my selections winning having drifted markedly. Obviously there is the odd occasion but it's been happening quite a bit lately. Jackie Love ran well in 4th/5th but ultimately a poor day.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.45 Wetherby - 3pts win Sycho Fred @ 5/1 (VC) Tricky horse to win with, but does have ability, and has been in good form in his last three starts. Has won off higher marks before, but it took a while for him to register just his fourth career win at Sedgefield over 2m4f three starts ago. The first two were nicely clear. He does stay further than this trip, but perhaps is equally effective over this shorter distance - especially with cut in the ground. His subsequent second to Apache Blue is good form with the 8l 3rd Allanard bolting up since. Sycho Fred travelled like a real menace over three miles at Doncaster last time but couldn't really quicken. However, that race was stronger than this and his effort makes him of huge interest here back in trip. This is a 0-95 affair, that was 0-110 and he has a very sound chance today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.30 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Riverdale @ 25/1 (Bet365) Taking a punt here on the outsider of the party but Nigel Tinkler's horse is edging down the handicap and can go well fresh. He has his stamina to prove over this trip but finished in midfield in big 7f handicaps on turf in the summer - races better than this, and has edged down the weights with a further 3lbs taken off his back by Dale Swift. His return to action last year saw his best effort yet - a 1l third over 5f. Hopefully it'll be the same this time around and he can prove 7f suits him. Decent draw and perhaps a tad overpriced.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Interrupted by football training! 3.00 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Johnson's Cat @ 11/1 (Bet365) Clearly a lowly rated horse but this is a poor race and shaped as if 7f would be ideal on his final two starts of last year. Had no chance back in a maiden giving weight away to a horse rated 17lbs his superior 2 starts ago but put some distance between him and the third, and after being outpaced last time over 6f, he kept on at the finish in a nursery a little better than this. Has to prove his fitness but looks off a fair mark up in trip and gets 3lbs taken off by his jockey. Yard going ok.