Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4/1 out to 7/1. Absolutely no chance.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Terrifying ride on Monsieur Joe. Bit of bad luck but bloody hell going for gaps that aren't there, switched all over the shop, and stays on under virtually no riding close home. Clear run and he's in the money I think.

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I reckon so, he finished full of running

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Barzalona didn't know where he wanted to go from the outset. Was a messy race but I don't think he should have tried to burst between those two horses - was hardly room there. Frustrating.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.40 Wolverhampton - 4pts win Baby Driver @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) This is a risk on a horse who is pretty uninspiring, but in this poor affair, can break the maiden tag. Has been running soundly for Tom Dascombe under these conditions before moving to the Newcombe yard and should be good enough to go close here - even with the hood removed. Had little chance of winning a maiden 3 starts ago before running well from the rear (raced wide) to finish 4th. The formline links with Idol Deputy as a couple of other threats have run behind that horse, but on figures, my selection has performed best. Last time out, Baby Driver was 3rd behind two better animals but still ran a relatively clear 3rd. The race was better than this and the winner has won twice since, and the second horse 2nd again twice since. Baby Driver is 2lbs lower in the handicap and is drawn well in stall 1.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Ante-Post Supreme Novices' Hurdle - 1pt win Mono Man @ 33/1 (Bet365) Just was having a look at a few formlines for the Supreme Novices and the one horse I quite like at a price is Mono Man of Nicky Henderson. Now I'm not sure whether he'll go for this race or the Neptune but I'll take a chance @ 33/1 on the former with a 1pt win bet. Henderson has mentioned how this one is a "serious horse" and he's shown that so far, although his future probably lies over further - which is why I'm a little wary about the direction he'll go in. However, he's only had one run over hurdles so far so it may well be that he's kept to the minimum trip should he make the festival. Looking at the horse and his obvious stamina, the fact he won two bumpers - including the latter which was quite a decent race - showed what a good horse this is. He stayed on determinedly to win and galloped all the way to the line. He was a hot 5/4 favourite on his hurdling debut after 9 months off the track (sidestepped Cheltenham bumper to avoid burnout) in a good little maiden race and perhaps would have won but for a jolting error at the last. He had a narrow lead and was staying on gamely when he lost momentum and was outpaced on landing. The way he stayed on powerfully again close home bodes well and he will come on for that. He jumped well on the whole for a first timer so that's promising also. The race was a decent one, too. The winner was a smart bumper horse who only went down by a head on its chasing debut behind the classy Hazy Tom. The 2nd placed horse since won from the talented and promising Montbazon next time out. I actually looked at that horse with interest for the Supreme but I'm not convinced it will suit him and he'd have to brush up his jumping in time. With fitness and the run under his belt, I think Mono Man can come on leaps and bounds over jumps and has a lot of scope. His hurdling form already has substance and he should have the class to get involved at Cheltenham. The likes of Prospect Wells is towards the head of the market (rated 145) and the horse in 2nd in front of Mono Man is rated 141. I do like that horse, Colour Squadron, but I do feel as if Henderson's was the one to take out of the race and can be a highly-rated horse also. I think the race will suit him, also. It can turn into more of a stamina test than a two mile contest often is, and I'm sure he'll be powering up the hill should he make it to Cheltenham unscathed. There's less chance for him to be crucially outpaced at the venue and I'm quite keen on his chances. He's worth a small pop now at 33/1 though, and it will be interesting to see where he goes next.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Ante-Post Arkle Trophy - 5pts win Sprinter Sacre @ 5/2 (Bet365) Will just have to take the risk on him making it to Cheltenham, but if he does, he wins (avoiding accidents). I don't see where the threats come from to be honest. Peddlers Cross is entitled to get a bit closer around Cheltenham I guess but to make up 16l seems unlikely on this natural chaser. He was a very smart hurdler but has taken to fences like a duck to water and it's possible that another one of his potential threats, Al Ferof, will head elsewhere to avoid a clash with Sprinter Sacre. That horse got the better of my selection in the Supreme Novices' last year by around 5 lengths but Henderson has always said this horse was a chaser - despite slicing through an Ascot field in extremely impressive fashion prior to last year's festival. He's hacked up over fences on both occasions this year, despite racing keenly at times, and proved he was top class when beating McCain's stable star at Kempton last time. The one question mark I suppose would be the track but I don't think he'll have too much trouble getting home. Even though I picked Menorah in my ten to follow, the likes of him, Cue Card, and Al Ferof have something to find in my opinion on this horse who looks a star and a true festival banker.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Ante-Post Ryanair Chase - 3pts win Captain Chris @ 10/1 (Hills) This is a risky punt because this horse could go for one of three options at the festival - the Gold Cup, the Queen Mother, or the Ryanair. The reason I'm opting for this one, is because if I was in control, this is where I'd go with him. I think it's the most likely of the three he could actually win, and I couldn't have him in the Gold Cup with him so unproven over the trip. He'd have a chance in the two-miler, but I hope he'll go down this route. He definitely stays this far, has the class for it, and there's no stand-out opponent in his way. I found his run in the King George eyecatching, with the way he snuck up very close behind the leaders on the inside at 4 out before backing out of it. I don't think he got home and this trip will be up his street. He's proven himself at the trip before and is a class act over fences. Despite running well over 2m4f in his early days over fences, he still won the Arkle authoritatively and backed that up at Punchestown - which is not an easy thing to do, as seen by many horses flopping at Aintree/in Ireland after Cheltenham. Looked like he was going to win on his return despite jumping inconvincingly at Exeter also, but unseated rider at the last. It would have been a nice return to the track but he still proved he was in rude health facing off with Medermit there, who has been in good form himself this season. The way he shaped in the King George did encourage me and I think he can be a real front runner in the Ryanair if he goes, unlike being a lively outside chance in the other races. The likes of Rubi Light and Noble Prince have obvious chances, but whether the ground will be soft enough for the former is one thing to debate, and there appears no standout horse in the race, which is why I think Hobbs and co should opt for this race and grab it by the scruff of the neck.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 12.40 Lingfield - 3pts win Hereford Boy @ 9/2 (Hills) Dean Ivory's charge struggles to win, but has been in good form recently, and this race falls apart a little bit I feel. The yard's horses are all running well and this fella goes well under these conditions. He was narrowly deprived twice recently with the blinkers on over c&d - including to the reopposing Aquilifer. I hope that my selection can reverse the form with that one - who only ran in France four days ago. Hereford Boy went without the blinkers last time and with the cheekpieces back on at Wolverhampton. It didn't really work and the visor is tried now for the first time. He obviously prefers some headgear on and hopefully this will do the trick. I don't like Perfect Mission and think his mark is still a bit high. He had to win that maiden last time out or would never have won a race. My Kingdom and Aquarian Spirit are coming down in the weights/grade but have plenty to prove as neither have run with much zest recently. I'd say there's a good chance this will be between the two who battled out the finish in November, but I hope the change of headgear, the form of the yard, and the freshness edge will see Hereford Boy get his head in front for a change.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Utterly sickening.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.35 Bangor - 5pts win Bathwick Brave @ 15/8 (Hills) Max bet against the favourite here might sound stupid, but I think it's between the two and I readily prefer my selection. Wise Move has run okay on both efforts but I don't think the form is incredible and has a lengthy absence to overcome. Bathwick Brave is fit, and I think has the form in the book. David Pipe's horses are going well too. Showed plenty of promise in two bumpers before a good effort to be 3rd on hurdling debut - fighting keenness and clumsiness. Filled the same position by 10l at Ffos Las next time behind two nice 125 rated horses (with potential to be higher) so the 116 sets a bar for the other runners today. Last time out, the sharper trip could him out and was staying on when badly hampered at the last at this course. Shaped as if he was a stayer and the step back up by half a mile will suit here. Less likely to be outpaced by these as they're not as battle hardened, plus a smaller field, and he'll take plenty of beating.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.50 Lingfield - 5pts win Broughtons Paradis @ 3/1 (Bet365) I really can't get away from Willie Musson's charge here. This is a really weak race and this horse can prove a cut above the rest here in my opinion. This horse was running in better races over the summer but was only moderate back on the all-weather recently. However, 2 starts ago he lost his place before keeping on at the same pace under an inexperienced rider, and produced a much better effort last time with Stevie Donohoe on board. A repeat of that should see him win and Willie Musson is going a bit better now after an average summer. This is Jamie Mackay's only runner of the day and the rest have it to prove in my opinion. Lucky Diva seems to want 2 miles ideally and I don't really like Guards Chapel and Maslak. The latter not looking a winning prospect really - more like a placed animal. I think 3/1 is generous and that's why it's a max bet for me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Come off it. Looks to be cruising. Fav well beaten. 8/1 and 12/1 horses pass him in a six runner race. So, so frustrating when unfancied horses who you couldn't really have on form beat you but not those that possibly could. What can you do? Another big bet defeated. Another to come at 2.50 I presume. Really hope not but they never manage it and it absolutely murders the stats.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread That's the ticket. Pulls like an absolute freak (seemingly doesn't usually do that), and finishes 2nd. Brill.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1 good day, 20 bad. No good for confidence. Flat: Total bets: 285 Won : 35 Placed (winning horses excluded): 72 Total staked: 817pts Total returned: 762pts Total P/L: -55pts Jumps: Total bets: 89 Won: 13 Placed: 18 Total Staked: 280pts Total Returned: 257pts Total P/L: -23pts Not going to get anywhere unless the 3, 4 and 5pt bets win. They never do. They're what get you the big wins and if you can't land them, it's an impossible task. Need to look at Wolverhampton but it's hardly making my mouth water.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.45 Wolverhampton - 5pts win Drawnfromthepast @ 5/2 (BlueSQ) Here's another horse I strongly fancy. If I have a 2pt bet he'll win, a 5pt bet and I guess he'll lose, but I'm not going to shy away. I've always quite liked this horse, and he enjoys the 5f around Wolverhampton. He won a handicap at Bath off 89 in July but has also won twice over today's c&d. Recently he's been campaigned in claiming company but things haven't really gone his way. 3 starts ago he went down by 1/2l here but was giving weight away. Perhaps should have beaten the winner at the weights but had a stiff ask against the second. Also had a 7lb claimer on which probably didn't help. Was a bit disappointing two starts ago under the same pilot but bounced back last time despite bursting a blood vessel when 3rd at Lingfield. Today the weights favour him and Jamie Spencer takes the ride as he doesn't need weight taken off his back. He's now with Jamie Osbourne and I think he has an excellent chance in this field.

[Lars]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Mate, I know it's not the usual thing on PL to be critical, but are you sure you're not on a tilt? Looks blaringly obvious (to me at least) that you've completely blown up, 3 maximum bets in a day just isn't logical...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Mate, I know it's not the usual thing on PL to be critical, but are you sure you're not on a tilt? Looks blaringly obvious (to me at least) that you've completely blown up, 3 maximum bets in a day just isn't logical...

Naturally you want to turn things around quickly but it's not really like that. I genuinely have been very confident about today's picks. If I really like a horse that's a short price, having 2pts on it is a waste of time really imo. I'm not going crazy on the bigger priced runners, but I genuinely thought my max bets today wouldn't be beaten. I'm not doing it for the sake of it, but it's bloody frustrating when you work for something and it just doesn't happen. I'm not going to recover by backing 2/1 shots with small bets. I am still judging each on its merits, though, if I was +50 I'd still stake the same amount on my picks today at least. I'll start getting worried when I'm max betting 8/1 shots (like the one I'm about the post, with a small bet!)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.15 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Leyte Gulf @ 8/1 (PP) - 1/4 odds The favourite is deservedly at the head of the market, but isn't infallible, and even so, the race looks open for 2nd place should he win. That's why I'm interested in the bottom weighted Leyte Gulf each-way. Chris Bealby's strong-traveller should be spot on now having had two runs after a break and this c&d brings out the best in him - winning four times over it. He's won off a higher mark before and perhaps the 2 miles didn't quite suit him last time despite winning over that trip. He travelled up well and looked a likely threat before not quickening late on. He shaped well on his return over this trip and now back down to this 1m6f and fitness on his side, can run into 2nd at least. It's wide open if you take the favourite out so should that one flop, I think Leyte Gulf can take the race, or at least finish 2nd if the favourite goes in.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.45 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Earlsmedic @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) I was very encouraged by this horse's effort over an insufficient 5f at Kempton last time, especially as he was sent off an 8/1 shot, when this yard's winners often are well supported. He couldn't go the early gallop before sprinting home well down the outside and a return to 6f should see him go very close here. He's very well handicapped as he's won off 12lbs higher in the past and the yard are going well. He should get a good pace to run off and will be especially interesting should money come for him - even though he's the favourite as it is!

[Lars]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Naturally you want to turn things around quickly but it's not really like that. I genuinely have been very confident about today's picks. If I really like a horse that's a short price' date=' having 2pts on it is a waste of time really imo. I'm not going crazy on the bigger priced runners, but I genuinely thought my max bets today wouldn't be beaten. I'm not doing it for the sake of it, but it's bloody frustrating when you work for something and it just doesn't happen. [b']I'm not going to recover by backing 2/1 shots with small bets. I am still judging each on its merits, though, if I was +50 I'd still stake the same amount on my picks today at least. I'll start getting worried when I'm max betting 8/1 shots (like the one I'm about the post, with a small bet!)

There lies your problem, you might not be aware of it, but you're "chasing losses", which plenty describe as a cardinal sin of punting. You can always recover losses tomorrow, or next week, or even next month. It's a long-term game this, you do seem intent on making a profit today, even though you're having a bad day by backing shorter priced horses in risky races, e.g. complaining about horses with little very form winning, when they're running in a maiden! I'm also particularly baffled about your last remark, that you'd get worried if you were max-betting 8/1 shots... Why wouldn't you do that? If something was 8/1 and I thought it should be more like odds-on, I'd be sticking a max bet on, and surely you would too! My two biggest bets this year have been on a 16/1 shot (which won) and a 20/1 shot (which finished last), mainly because I thought they were priced ridiculously. I mean, I'm no world-beater I know, and my thread on here went down like the Hindenburg (had other excuses apart from bad luck/punting) but you're a good judge mate, plenty of people on here think that but it's just frustrating to see you wasting your time maximum betting horses who are probably priced just about right, and doing so because it's not worth sticking 2pts on a 2/1 shot... or in races where they'll be prone to something improving.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

There lies your problem, you might not be aware of it, but you're "chasing losses", which plenty describe as a cardinal sin of punting. You can always recover losses tomorrow, or next week, or even next month. It's a long-term game this, you do seem intent on making a profit today, even though you're having a bad day by backing shorter priced horses in risky races, e.g. complaining about horses with little very form winning, when they're running in a maiden! I'm also particularly baffled about your last remark, that you'd get worried if you were max-betting 8/1 shots... Why wouldn't you do that? If something was 8/1 and I thought it should be more like odds-on, I'd be sticking a max bet on, and surely you would too! My two biggest bets this year have been on a 16/1 shot (which won) and a 20/1 shot (which finished last), mainly because I thought they were priced ridiculously. I mean, I'm no world-beater I know, and my thread on here went down like the Hindenburg (had other excuses apart from bad luck/punting) but you're a good judge mate, plenty of people on here think that but it's just frustrating to see you wasting your time maximum betting horses who are probably priced just about right, and doing so because it's not worth sticking 2pts on a 2/1 shot... or in races where they'll be prone to something improving.

I'm not chasing losses consciously, and I'm not trying to get a quick fix. It's a simple case of liking favourites today. Usually I don't have max bets because I look for horses who look like value and aren't that short. Today the only horses I liked were short, and I really liked them. It doesn't have anything to do with being behind, it's just the way the racing is. In hindsight, they didn't come off. Had my first two bets won today, I'd still have had max bets on the subsequent two. I only complained about horses with no form winning in that maiden hurdle because it's frustrating when you're very confident because on form, I had it correct. The horses seemingly at the head of the market I had beat, but horses I wouldn't have backed with stolen money got by. Of course it happens, especially in maidens, but that doesn't mean it doesn't hurt and demotivates you. I've apologised and mentioned umpteen times on here to ignore my posts straight after races because it's heat of the moment stuff. As for the 8/1 comment, it didn't come across as I meant it to. Of course if I'm confident on a bigger priced horse I'll bet accordingly - and from time to time I have had big bets on these priced horses. What I meant was I'd be worried if I was just sticking max bets on horses for the sake of it in the hope to make some money back. Ie. Being 40pts down and smashing into an 8/1 shot whether I was confident or not, just in an attempt to bring it around. I'm not a very good judge most of the time, in fact, I find it a bit embarrassing even having a thread on here alongside everyone with big profits. Yes, there are good days, but even when you get into a good position, it all goes to pot, and that's not all a discipline thing.

[Kithanga]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

1 good day, 20 bad. No good for confidence. Flat: Total bets: 285 Won : 35 Placed (winning horses excluded): 72 Total staked: 817pts Total returned: 762pts Total P/L: -55pts Jumps: Total bets: 89 Won: 13 Placed: 18 Total Staked: 280pts Total Returned: 257pts Total P/L: -23pts Not going to get anywhere unless the 3, 4 and 5pt bets win. They never do. They're what get you the big wins and if you can't land them, it's an impossible task. Need to look at Wolverhampton but it's hardly making my mouth water.

I hope you don't mind me commenting, I'm just trying to help as I really feel for you mate but would agree with Lars that you seem 'off your game'. I don't doubt that you're trying to bet normally but it looks like your judgement is way off. Have a look at my thread from 2010 and you'll see I went through a similar bad run and public humiliation. Every other thread seemed to win, every horse I almost backed won and all the ones I backed lost many with the most awful bad luck in running and hammered in the betting. After years of winning I never, ever expected to lose and certainly not as badly as I did. I was annoyed with the game and blaming bad luck, bad rides, etc and wasn't approaching the form with an open mind. It was only after taking a break and looking back at my bets that I saw that a lot of the 'bad luck' could have been forseen. I was just not seeing it or blocking it out. Your last sentence suggests you should take a break. Why not spend a couple of weeks critically looking at your selections with an open mind to see if you can spot anything.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I appreciate anyone commenting constructively, so thanks. It doesn't help when you're so desperate to succeed and not be embarrassed considering this is often what I get up for in a morning (afternoon). I probably take it too seriously but I don't get as much chance to do the things I enjoy since my Dad died - without wanting to sound like I'm on the X Factor. But I guess when you're not doing much and need a vice, I look to this as entertainment which maybe isn't the right way to think if you want to be successful. There probably have been times I've picked horses that maybe weren't as stronger bets as they should be just to give me something to watch on a day. But still, on the whole, I don't think my selections are too bad in my head, and looking back, there's still plenty of them I'd pick again. There probably is a bit of poor discipline involved, but it would help if I could successfully pick winners!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Leyte Gulf another 2nd today. 12/1. Earlsmedic out to 10/1 from around 9/2. From this yard, crikey.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Some luck would help, mind. 4 seconds and 2 thirds today. 2 of those seconds beaten a short head.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Fresh start tomorrow. Pretend as if it's a P/L of £0. Would love to get a Saturday right for a change. Thank you for your words.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I guess I'm hoping for Colour Squadron to perform well tomorrow more than Prospect Wells. Would give a boost to Mono Man's festival hopes if the Colour Squadron/Montbazon/Mono Man form proves stronger than the Steps To Freedom/Prospect Wells form.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.55 Newcastle - 3pts win My Arch @ 9/2 (VC) Ollie Pears' runner stays all day on the flat which makes him a threat over hurdles, especially over a testing three miles. He has been running well in three hurdles races this season - although the tests may not have been sufficient enough. Still, he got his head in front two starts ago at Wetherby. The runs either side were very respectable - a staying on 2nd at Musselburgh over an insufficient 2m4f and a game fourth back at Wetherby last time over 2m6f. He was under pressure for a while that day and jumped poorly up the straight (jump at last was okay) but stayed on dourly to finish just 5l behind the leaders, and an extra 2f would have seen him go very close - suggesting this mark is not beyond him. He's had 2 seconds and a first among his runs at Newcastle so the course isn't an issue and the testing nature of the track over this three mile trip will see him to his best. This is probably the most suitable race he's had this season and will certainly find out any chinks in the other runner's stamina. Papamoa is likely to relish the step up in trip but has a 7lb penalty for a second placed runner last time, and Theologist similar. That one is always worth taking on despite travelling well and this mark will make his task tougher. My Arch will hopefully jump a bit better today but is bound to be staying on and he does have the quality to take this. This is Brian Hughes only ride of the day and I hope he's not going to make up the numbers!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.25 Wincanton - 2pts win Gallox Bridge @ 6/1 (PP) This horse won't get a soft lead, and will have to jump better than last time in this tougher company, but I think he looks fairly handicapped with obvious improvement possible, and gets 5lbs taken off his back by Michael Byrne (19% for Tim Vaughan). Vaughan himself is in half-decent form but also has a strong record at the track - a 26% and a LSP of £15. This horse caught the eye when an 8l winner for Charlie Mann on his bumper debut, but since disappointed before moving yards, and has flourished this season - winning both hurdling starts. He's clearly got an engine as he's won well despite errors on both starts. He also jumped right-handed last time so the move to a right-handed track is far from a bad idea! The form looks solid, also. The 2nd placed horse (beaten 3 1/2l) hacked up next time before two second placed efforts and is now rated 125. Gallox Bridge runs off 120 today with 5lbs taken off his back so there should be more to come off this mark if he can improve his jumping. These are tricky races but there are plenty of positives for this one and the soft ground shouldn't inconvenience based on his bumper win.