Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Bollocks. Just found one. Wrong BBOTD again too :wall +15pts but I really thought it was going to be +33!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Typical that I had a win double on them too...oh well.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.25 Kempton - 2pts win Prince Of Burma @ 8/1 (BlueSQ) Open race but I think it's worth siding with Jeremy Gask's tricky customer at a price which seems like it may be coming in - which is interesting. This horse clearly has ability, but has plenty of quirks, and I reckon that the application of blinkers along with the slight ease in grade can see him go very well here. He's bred to go well on the all-weather and his most recent three starts have been okay. He hasn't been beaten too far in slightly better races than today, and often doesn't travel great or pulls hard/hangs. Last time out it was the combination of both of those things over c&d when he hung out to his left and ended up very wide. Came back in again late on and did finish with a bit of promise. I hope that the blinkers sharpen him up today and allow him to travel sweeter and go through with his effort. The signals of market support is interesting and I certainly think he's capable of getting involved here from a good draw in stall 3. No horse stands out and this might be his night.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.25 Kempton - 2pts e/w Dressed In Lace @ 5/1 (Skybet) Jo Crowley's horse looks a good each-way bet here having performed well last time behind an unexposed rival over sprint trips (won again since). This horse is consistent, has a decent draw, and is proven under the conditions. 6f is her ideal trip having won at Chepstow and been short-headed at Windsor either side of a creditable performance in a Grade 3 event at Newbury. Last time out was her first run for around three months and she only went down by a length and is entitled to come on for that. I think she can be competitive off this mark and holds a couple of these horses including Le King Beau on collateral form. There are a couple of interesting horses in the field but it's difficult to see this filly being out of the frame for a yard going well if she sits off what's likely to be a good pace.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.55 Kempton - 3pts win Dark Ranger @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes) Tim Pitt's horses are in fine form and his improving stayer has been unfortunate not to get his head in front from his last half-dozen or so starts. Jamie Spencer is a very interesting jockey booking and I think today can be the day for this one. This horse improved plenty in the autumn/early winter to be placed in two good Newmarket staying races before running quite well in a Cheltenham hurdle. Goes just as well on the all-weather and was touched off once more last time out. Went down by just 1/2l to an 84 rated horse who relishes the conditions around Kempton and had been in very good form over hurdles also - so it was no disgrace. I don't think there's anything quite as good in this race and the first two were clear of a subsequent winner on that occasion. Sure to get a run for your money, and I think he'll deservedly get his head in front tonight.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread SPENCER YOU MORON. :lol:wall

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread +15pts jumps. +9pts flat. Should have been more with a bit of luck.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Flat: Total bets: 307 Won : 41 placed: 79 Total staked: 883pts Total returned: 859pts Total P/L: -24pts Jumps: Total bets: 118 Won: 19 Placed: 22 Total Staked: 369pts Total Returned: 350pts Total P/L: -19pts Things looking a bit rosier. Dark Ranger would have made it -12pts on the flat, which would have been even better. Would have been laughing if both 2nds today had won. Still, a good day on the whole, and only a couple more away from being back in business.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.20 Taunton - 3pts win He's Our Lad @ 4/1 (Boyles) Anthony Honeyball's 6-y-o gelding has been a little bit frustrating having either finished 2nd, or come to grief on his last seven starts. However, I don't think there's much wrong with his attitude and think he's ready to get his head in front today. This horse has shown form in all codes having shaped well in 'bumpers' - winning his second start before being outclassed after an absence at Doncaster. Bounced right back when sent over timber for the first time, beating a 1/2 favourite by 2l at Stratford. He bumped into two decent horses when booked for third but for a fall at the last at Uttoxeter, before being narrowly deprived by a horse rated 127 back at Stratford next time. Had every chance again when coming down at the last at Newton Abbot and followed that up with a short-head defeat having made a mistake at the last at the same track. He's not the quickest of finishers which is why I think he'll make a better chaser and has shown plenty of promise over fences so far. He couldn't pick up Falcon Island at today's track on his chasing debut, but the leader had the run of the race out in front, and has won twice since, and is rated 135. He's Our Lad remains off a mark of 117 and he was running another good race in decent company last time out when falling 3 out. He came there with every chance and to dispute the lead with a few other runners when landing steeply. The winner has won again since (now rated 11lbs higher), the second is rated 130 and unexposed, and the third won by 19l in the race prior to that, so it was a nice little novice handicap. He's Our Lad is one of the best horses in today's race on ratings and I think his mark is still very fair based on his two chase starts to date. Yes his jumping is an issue - he's fine on the whole but can make an error or two and land steeply. Tends to need a stride finding which is a slight concern with Rachael Green on board but she does know the horse well. Looks guaranteed to get a nice pace to sit in behind with a couple of front-runners in the field and I think so long as he jumps round, will put in a bold effort.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.20 Taunton - 3pts win Third Intention @ 4/1 (Bet365) The fact this horse comes here with the County Hurdle in mind raises questions, and he was going to be a 2pt win @ 6/1, but the fact he's been backed this morning from that price into 4/1 is very interesting to me and I think it hopefully suggests that the Tizzard's are coming here to collect the £10,000 prize money. It's not all that often that you see a 142-rated horse at the Somerset track, and I think this race will really suit Third Intention. He took to hurdles well last year, which culminated in a very respectable 7th in a hot Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Surrounded by good horses in Zarkandar, Unaccompanied, Grandouet, Sam Winner, Brampour etc. Won a novice by 8l back at the track next time before having the summer off. Returned with a good effort in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Ascot - travelling powerfully before just lacking in fitness late on in the day trying to give plenty of weight away to his rivals. Shaped as if just as good and continued with high-class form in the Greatwood last time out back at Cheltenham. He was with the leaders throughout and led at 2 out, but vying for the lead in big hurdle races at Cheltenham typically doesn't bode well. He was swamped at the last and faded up the run-in to finish a very sound 7th. He did best of those up with the pace, and gets a drop in grade today. Had to carry a lot of weight but this is noticeably weaker than the Greatwood and I think he can revert back to tactics of sitting in behind the leaders to boost his chances. Even still, the track will suit him and shouldn't be coming to the end of his tether quite so much as at Cheltenham. I haven't been overly impressed by his market rival Ranjaan so far, and Lemon Drop Red did little to boost his form last time out.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.50 Taunton - 2pts win Rougham @ 15/2 (VC) Rougham is a tricky horse to work out, but I think he has conditions to suit him here, and should go well. The Philip Hobbs yard are in cracking form and this horse has won off just 2lbs lower and hopefully can get back in the winner's enclosure this afternoon. His runs have been pretty sound this season having finished a decent 3rd over a trip that stretched him at Sandown on his seasonal reappearance. He made a juddering error at the last which cost him some ground so the 8l defeat was exaggerated a little bit behind the smart Roudoudou Ville. He didn't jump at Ascot and two bad mistakes in a row saw him pulled up, but he bounced back with a much sounder effort at his fences in a small field at Exeter. He was beaten 4l by Torpichen, but it was an encouraging effort and the winner is decent - rated 140, and ran a good 2nd over hurdles last time. The desperate ground around Exeter that day over the trip perhaps wasn't ideal either for Rougham. Jumped wonderfully at Wincanton last time out but the 2m5f trip on soft ground tested him - especially as the front two seemed to go off a bit quick as those held up came to the fore at the end. Didn't have much to offer up the straight behind a convincing winner but the way he jumped and travelled was encouraging. There does seem quite a lot of pace in the race today so I would quite like to see Richard Johnson sit in behind on this horse and get him into a jumping rhythm to pick up the pieces late on. The 2m3f trip at this course and on this ground should be no issue stamina-wise, and if he jumps as well as he has on his most recent two starts, I think he's got a big race in him.

[Stribs]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I'll give your horses a go to try and get me out of a deep deep hole. Good luck all! :hope

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread God that's a frustrating horse. Can only blame myself, though...Just thought he was unfortunate bumping into horses as opposed to anything else.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Argh.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Two seconds and a faller when going okay. Not to be...

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Quick one: 4.30 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Gold Tobougg @ 4/1 (Bet365) Dancing Welcome won well on return last time but this is its highest mark yet and has to prove she can win off it. Gold Tobougg was slowly away and went left out of the stalls at Kempton last time over 7f. Lacked a clear run up the straight before staying on well. Found no extra at the death but the step back to 6f should suit and is back to the scene of her maiden win over c&d. Definitely races to be won off this mark back down to 6f on the polytrack.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Make that three seconds. Ran awkwardly up the straight.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.00 - 2pts win Admirable Duque @ 13/2 (VC) Quite possibly the stupidest bet I've ever placed based on the form last time out here over the extended two mile trip - when he was comfortably held by La Estrella and races off even worse terms today. However, I reckon that horse might not get the required stamina test around here and Josh Baudins - who knows his way around here - can utilise my selection's superior turn of foot crucially here. There doesn't look much pace in the race and La Estrella might just be caught for a bit of speed as they go for home. My selection has won off a mark of 77 with Neil Callan on board so he's very capable of running well up to a mark of 79 with a 7lb claim and back down to his favoured trip here - 3 times a winner over c&d and one 14f win elsewhere, can cause an upset.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.30 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Full Toss @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) Fiercely competitive handicap over the extended 9f here and I am interested in the potentially thrown in Jim Goldie trained Full Toss. There are plenty in with chances here but my selection has won off 85 in the past and competed in handicaps off marks in the 90s. He runs off 73 today having gone through a poor spell, but has shaped well the last twice, and a good run is on the cards. Struggled off marks around 95 in handicaps and then in the Group 3 Winter Derby followed by the Lincoln at Doncaster on soft ground. He really ought to have won a claimer when a close 2nd to Plush (decent type on his day but should not have beaten Full Toss). Went on the turf in three soft ground races - he's never gone well on testing ground - and this knocked his mark down to 73 when Jim Goldie sent him back to the polytrack. Stayed on to be a 1l 4th of 13 in a decent handicap over c&d before shaping very well at Dundalk last time over a 1m4f trip which just stretches him slightly. He travelled well despite racing keenly and kept on gallantly up the straight before having no more to give inside the final half furlong. They just got first run on him at Wolverhampton the time before and a more even gallop today will suit him as he doesn't pick up immediately. If he can get out from his wide stall in 10, he has conditions to suit, and can go well.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.10 Catterick - 1pt win Altan Khan @ 11/1 (Bet365) The ground is a big concern for this Malcolm Jefferson-trained individual, but he's worth a small win bet at the prices considering he hasn't had too many tries with soft ground underfoot and he perhaps had other excuses those days. He was a decent hurdler but has shaped as if a better chaser, and this type of track suits this horse who goes well on sharp courses. His previous efforts on soft ground saw him finish 6th of 16 in a bumper - he wasn't threatening on any bumper starts regardless of ground at the time. His other soft ground start came over 2m4f after a break over hurdles. The fitness and stamina doubts on this occasion were sure to hinder his progress also. He will relish two miles around a sharp track and has a big chance should the ground not be a major concern. He was going to win regardless when left well clear at Sedgefield on his chasing debut and ran a good 3rd next time out at Carlisle when close up behind two in-form horses (winner gone in since). Errors and racing too enthusiastically over a too-taxing 2m4f at Musselburgh was his undoing next time before being simply outclassed by the Arkle hotpot Sprinter Sacre at Doncaster last time. The return to a track such as this, the bare 2 miles, and more reasonable company should see him go well. He would be a bigger bet but for the ground, where there are reasonable doubts.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.20 Chepstow - 3pts win Sire De Grugy @ 9/2 (Hills) There are no question marks regarding the ground for this selection. The high-class Sire De Grugy does need to be at his best here after a break probably given he has to give plenty of weight away from his mark of 143, however I think he's capable on ground he relishes. His sire won 6 of his 7 races on soft ground and this horse has been very impressive when encountering such conditions. He twice finished second behind smart horses in 'bumpers' in Bobs Worth and Knight Pass before shaking off untidy jumping to score easily by 19l in the mud on his hurdling debut at Fakenham. Cruised to a 16l victory next time at Folkestone before being hoisted up in grade at Kempton in a Grade 2. This form has much more substance to it - as he routed a nice field by 11l - with Empire Levant in 2nd. That horse is now rated 140 and my selection gave him 6lbs that day. Therefore, the 143 that he runs off today looks fair enough. He ran a sound 3rd at Aintree in the spring. Even though the race has mixed form, the likes of Brampour were in behind that day, and the good ground was against my selection. He needs to be fit, but otherwise will take the world of beating here. He's been nibbled in the betting already which is encouraging, and Jump City may find this too stamina sapping in the ground (and is drifting). Charm School's form with Ashbrittle hasn't been franked particularly with their conqueror flopping up in grade since, so I'm taking last year's high class novice to prove too strong.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.25 Chepstow - 4pts win Rockabilly @ 9/4 (Bet365) Nigel Twiston-Davies is in form and this horse has been unfortunate not to score on his last two starts under similar conditions. Still only has 7 runs to his name and improved for handicapping over hurdles when winning his handicap debut at Exeter. Had a break off the track before returning for his first try over fences. It was a decent race and it was an encouraging effort after a break/on his first start over the bigger obstacles. Improved on that when narrowly going down to a subsequent 2l winner at Exeter over 3 miles on good/soft - with the pair 16l clear from a horse who has won and placed twice from three starts since. Proved soft ground was no problem at Ffos Las last time when 2l clear when coming to grief at 2 out. He looked the likely winner before coming down. He's 3lbs better off than the horse who went on to win that day so I reckon the form can be turned around. Should go very, very well.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.55 Meydan - 4pts win Start Right @ 7/2 (Bet365) Previous posts on the horse:

5.00 Meydan - 3pts win Start Right @ 3/1 (Hills) Posted this before his last run: He's since joined Godolphin and had a break, but he's gone well fresh before, and should run a huge race here. The race should be run to suit as they often are in Dubai and should be flying at the finish. The surface is a slight question mark but he won on the polytrack from one start in the UK so hopefully it won't be a concern. He got going a bit too late at Sandown and the winner had flown, but he stayed on well into 2nd, and with luck in running, should go very close today.

Ran a good 3rd last time out for a flying Godolphin team after an absence off the track behind two decent Al Zarooni horses, and I don't feel the same level of competition is in the race today. He has a wide draw but he'll be dropped in and he should be match fit now after that run last time. He does need luck and can get going too late but he's better on the turf and will be seen in better light returning to the surface from the tapeta. Looks sure to get a good pace to run at and has the fitness edge over his main market rival - who I think needs to prove himself at this level also. Dettori takes the ride on this one rather than his stablemate and can get a deserved success today.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Probably should have sacked off Start Right a couple of starts back. Flatters to deceive constantly.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Glad I went with my heart but it meant just a 1pt win bet with concerns over the ground. Top ride.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Wasn't even much point in watching that race. As if Sire De Grugy could win after drifting from 4s out to 10s.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Bollocks. Again the big bets aren't doing it. Quite liked the look of the winner but Rockabilly looked rock solid.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread +4pts jumps. -4pts flat. On the day.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.10 Lingfield - 3pts win Alhaban @ 11/4 (BlueSQ) Ron Harris' charge hasn't won since his debut but has tumbled in the weights since his early days. Placed here off a mark of 87 a year ago but runs today off 61. It was obvious he would never be able to compete off such a high mark for a while but showed more in the autumn off marks just above 70. Has narrowly failed twice in selling company recently at Wolverhampton, including last time out when narrowly failing to beat a horse raced 18lbs superior - and he went wide on the bend. That winner has gone well today so the form looks decent. Due to go up 4lbs but this horse can certainly be competitive off a mark of 61 with conditions to suit. His last run in a handicap over a suitable trip was off a mark of 72 so he's tumbled since then and could be very well-in today. Shared Moment looks sure to run well but the handicapper may have that one's measure now, and Storm Runner will need a good ride. He's edging up the weights also and faces a couple of stronger contenders than he has recently in my opinion.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.20 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Pilgrim Dancer @ 4/1 (Bet365) I think the favourite is too short, for all he's unexposed. He goes up for beating a poor field last time out and my selection holds him on collateral form if taking it literally. Pilgrim Dancer has always looked like 6f around Wolverhampton would be his ideal trip despite scoring over 7f at the track. Most of his efforts over 7f here have seen his promising finish peter out late on as he has no extra to give. The drop in trip should suit here in a weak affair. He's won off a higher mark in the past and he's generally consistent on polytrack. His last three efforts have been sound and although the visor didn't help on his two most recent efforts with it applied, the trip was too far on both of those occasions so that can be forgotten as it returns today. His most recent win came with the headgear on and I'll be surprised if he doesn't make a bold bid.