Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 11.00 Meydan - 3pts win Zanzamar (Will take price in morning if I'm around, otherwise SP) Will only be dipping into the Meydan action when very confident, and I'm really keen on this horse. Mike De Kock is always someone to fear at the Carnival and his horses have been running well as usual over in Dubai. This horse has been off the track since the UAE Derby last year, but proved himself able of winning fresh this time last year when beating Splash Point by a length. That horse reversed the form next time out but my selection had no room up the straight and did well to stay on up the fence when he got out. That form looks sound enough with Splash Point running well in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and my selection had to give him 10lbs here last year. Zanzamar went to the Derby last time out and even though he does seem to stay 1m2f, he raced too freely on this occasion, but still ran a respectable 4th. Until he can settle, it's probably that he'll be seen to his best over a fast run mile. The blinkers are on, conditions are spot on with the race coming on the tapeta surface, and must go well if ready after a break. There looks plenty of pace in the race and this horse can sit just off it with Richard Hills on board. Not a fan of his, but his booking suggests he'll be ready to run well, and I hope he recovers some losses his ride's have cost me in the past!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Rubbish and another 2nd. 5.50 Dundalk - 2pts win Thats A Fret @ 9/1 (VC) This is quite an odd 5f handicap considering many of these horses seemingly want further. This horse has done plenty of running over 6f, but I think the 5f around here will suit ideally and he has a nice draw in stall 3 to boot. 4 of his 7 career wins have come over the minimum trip and has won off as high as 86 in Autumn 2010. Struggled off higher marks until dropping back down to the early 70s when he found form again, and scraped home off 72 at Ffos Las last Autumn over 5f. Held his form with the blinkers on quite well since and hasn't been beaten further than 3l in his last four starts (all here). Has plenty of pace and should benefit from the step back from 6f. One of those efforts came over 7f without the blinkers which won't have been ideal, but only went down by a length last time off this mark with the 5lbs taken off his back by CP Hoban. He had a wide draw on this occasion and faces the 2nd placed horse again. However, the 5f may suit my selection more than that one, and has a little swing at the weights. I anticipate he may well reverse the form with that 9/2 shot here, and he is the favourite. The next few in the market are all drawn wide so this might represent a great opportunity for Liam McAteer's charge.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.50 Dundalk - 4pts win Choral Society @ 4/1 (Bet365) I don't like many of this field, for all it isn't a very big one, and the only one I really like to any degree is Edward Lynam's 2nd favourite here. Kedleston is far too short for me. Yep, improved plenty last time, but prior to that was poor, and a hike of 14lbs in the weights for winning a race that was very modest and those who've run since haven't gone well - 3rd well-beaten in weak Wolverhampton race subsequently. Tawariyka was beaten by my selection by a length when they met in a maiden off level weights. Lynam's claiming jockey makes them run off the same terms here and even though Halford's charge had one less run under his belt than my selection, will struggle to reverse the form over the mile in my eyes. The only other one with a chance appears to be Roman General, but again, I'm not a fan. Hasn't really kicked on from his promising debut. The two maidens he's recently competed in were there for the taking, and he couldn't be much of a threat. I think, even though he's from the same yard as Choral Society, the 5lbs taken off that one's back can make all the difference here. Choral Society Showed plenty of promise in his first two starts (the 2nd proving to be quite a nice maiden by Dundalk standards). Won gamely over 7f last time out when beating one of today's rivals and looks as if he wants further (backed up by pedigree). The extra furlong will be right up his street and looks the best treated horse in the race, especially with his rider's claim.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 7.50 Dundalk - 2pts win Awareness @ 8/1 (VC) There looks like plenty of pace is possible in this 7f handicap and that can play into the hands of Michael McCullagh's charge here, who steps back from a mile. Has been staying on in the last twice, but not very quickly, and the step back to a strongly run 7f race can prove ideal seen as she is related to sprinters (including dam). Having shown some decent form in early maidens, her first two efforts in handicap company were poor. The latter of which was the first run for this yard after a break, but improved her form plenty the last twice, with the tongue-tie applied. She's been beaten around 2l on both of those tries over a mile around here and a repeat of those efforts, should see her go well with the race set to suit better today. Her effort two starts ago was good considering she came wide, and last time was off the back of a 2 month break. Should be sharper today and will relish the opportunity to finish off a strong pace here, so hopefully she gets it.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.30 Lingfield - 2pts win The Wee Chief @ 12/1 (Bet365) Not the easiest horse in the world, but this represents a drop in class off the back of an absence of 226 days. Obviously that's a slight concern, but his record fresh is pretty strong, having had form of 144 after a break of 3 months or more - with both 4th placed finishes being less than 2l behind the winner. His last win came off this mark and was running well on turf in grade 4 handicaps when last seen. Has won on polytrack before and goes well here. The yard's representative Torres Del Paine has been running well and this horse might just cause a bit of an upset today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.40 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Hazzard County @ 11/2 (Bet365) This also represents a drop in class for David Simcock's charge - with the yard in good form. This horse typically needs a good pace and he looks likely to get this today with at least 2 wannabe front-runners in the contest, along with others who like to be up there. He probably should have won a good race 2 starts ago when given plenty to do, and going down a length to two nice horses, and wasn't suited by the way the race was run last time - still ran well. Hasn't shown quite as good a form at this track, but both of those were over 9f which won't have been ideal. A strongly run 7f will be and looks up to a huge run here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.00 Lingfield - 2pts win Lockantanks @ 6/1 (Bet365) Many people will think that Michael Appleby's charge has been caught up by the handicapper after his 1l 4th last time, but I don't think that was run ideally for him, and can go better today. It was a messy affair last time and this horse relishes quickening off a fast pace from just in behind the leaders. He also is 1lb better off than Tarooq today, and that horse was more suited by the race last time in my eyes, and is always vulnerable at the death. Numeral may improve for the extra furlong but it's at least questionable, and the lack of a 3lb claim by O'Neill would concern me. Prince Of Burma has been fired up by the blinkers but is up another 7f and this represents a stiff task for him with such fierce competition. Quite keen to take him on with his obvious quirks.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread How long has that been coming?! I could cry with joy.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread That's more like it Rupert. :cow

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Hazzard County doubled in price :eek

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Ran well considering. Backed Piscean at big prices last time but wasn't sure about 7f :\

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Definitely a well deserved winner mate :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Cheers. Here's hoping it's the first of many to come.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nice one BTR:ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Great winner mate, well spotted

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.25 Punchestown - 2pts win Marble House @ 12/1 (Hills) Tricky race with many of these having to prove their stamina, and that will be crucial over this 3m4f trip on heavy ground. One horse who looks a real staying type, however, is Seamus Neville's Marble House. A point winner who didn't show much until recently, has hit form, and looks capable of playing a big hand in the finish here. He's by a middle-distance horse and out of a staying jumps type - she didn't show much, but is related to stayers, and this fella is a half-brother to two point winners and the stamina-abundant Eyre Square. This gives him great hopes of enjoying the extended trip today, and has been running well enough to suggest he can make a big impact today. He put in a fine effort at 100/1 to chase home Blackstairmountain over 2 miles - going down by 3 lengths, before proving no match for today's rival Up The Beat over 2m5f at Fairyhouse. The winning margin was 11 lengths and my selection received 7lbs on that occasion. 21lbs is the weight difference today which gives a live chance for my hope to beat the 6/1 shot off a handy weight. Marble House won over the same trip last time out by 7l and is still only a 6-year-old so there should be plenty more to come from this one. He appears on the way up now he's maturing and even though he is going into new territory with regards to the trip today, he's got a good chance of seeing it out, and therefore rates as having a big chance in a competitive field.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Back to fallers...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Now to hope we get some racing tomorrow!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.10 Ayr - 5pts win Saddle Pack @ 5/1 (Hills) These small chase fields are often the type of races I relish in terms of punting, and I'm extremely confident on the chances of James Walton's runner here. I personally am not a huge fan of anything else in the race and think 5/1 is seriously generous. He is a point winner, but his runs under rules have suggested a trip of around this 2m5f would suit him perfectly. Naturally needed his first run for nearly two years on his chase debut in November, but since then has shaped well. Was 3rd behind two very smart types in Frascati Park and Kudu Country after that, when sent off 100/1, and kept on to be a distant third. He obviously had little chance with those rated 143 and 135 respectively. My selection has a rating of 89! His effort at Newcastle over 2 miles showed him in much better light, staying on strongly having been outpaced to finish just 1 1/2l behind the winner in 4th. That horse has won again since, as has the second, and my hope had today's reopposing Quacity 1 length behind and should confirm that form here. This horse went the other way last time out, when stepped up to 3 miles. Made a couple of errors which is obviously a concern, but travelled up nicely to be close up at 4 out before feeling the pinch 2 from home. Shaped as if this trip today would be ideal, and the winner has gone down a short-head since, with the 2nd hacking up last time out. Therefore all recent runs have come against decent company who have been capable of running well off higher marks. Conditions should be spot on here and coming up against less experienced horses over fences will suit as his jumping will come under less strain. We have a newcomer to chasing in here, along with a favourite who made errors last time, and the race is only a 5 runner affair so he can get away with any mistakes a little better here I think. The race What A Dream was 2nd in last time was weak, and as I said, he didn't jump brilliantly. Also the yard have questions to answer. Proud Times is a flat-bred horse who needs to prove himself at the trip, has never won on turf, this is his chase debut, and is poor value at 5/2 given his poor strike-rate added to his list of questions to answer. Mighty Magnus is a 21-race maiden and has been poor the last twice. Don't see why he's only 1pt further out in the betting than my selection. Obviously could be wrong, but will be surprised if this one goes off at 5/1 or bigger and must have every chance if not making any terrible errors.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.20 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Dorothy's Dancing @ 15/2 (VC) Keeping the faith with Gary Moore's filly, who I've been on the side of a number of times this season. She won narrowly at Lingfield last spring - with the latter of those coming off today's mark of 55 - the first time since that she's running off this low. She held her form well enough after that before being bogged down at Sandown. Returned to the all-weather after a break at Kempton in November, and ran really well with things going against her. She raced extremely freely, having been very weak in the betting, and quickened to lead at the furlong pole. Her earlier exertions cost her as she folded late on and somehow finished out of the frame in 5th. A wide berth cost her at Wolverhampton next time when running soundly again off a 3lb higher mark than today, and she ran keenly when having little chance behind the well-backed and easy leader Royal Bajan (won since) at Lingfield before a similar story last time out. She stayed on at the death but raced far too freely once more in the early part of the race and finished an okay 6th. The reason I continue with her here, is that this looks certain to be run to suit. There appears an abundance of front-runners and speedy types in the race, and she has a nice draw in stall 1, combined with her drop in the weights. Hopefully this will enable her to settle better with some cover, and finish late and fast to collar those front-runners. Gary Moore's horses have been running well recently and is a nice price for a smallish win bet.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.55 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Legal Legacy @ 13/2 (VC) This horse looks like a winner waiting to happen for his new yard in three starts since joining David Griffiths - and his career can definitely include all-weather runs having adapted to the polytrack well since trying the surface for the first time three starts ago. His career has seen him often running in slightly better races on turf and has comfortably won off a 1lb lower mark than what he runs off today in the past. He's running well enough since he moved from Michael Dods to suggest he can capitalise off this mark also. He stayed on from the rear over c&d on his first run for a few months, on his first run for his new yard, on his first run on the polytrack. His run over a mile at Kempton next time was hugely promising when going down by a length to a subsequent scorer (easily off 6lbs higher) with 2l back to the third. A repeat of that effort would see an almighty run here, especially as the vast majority of his career successes have come over 7 furlongs. Didn't get an ideal run of the race last time in a slightly better race over 7f at Kempton. He was forced very wide throughout, and tried to race prominently. He didn't pick up initially, and was struck on the head by a rival's whip, but the way he was finishing at the death was very encouraging. Couldn't get involved but was eating up ground at the end and if he gets a better position here, and gets a nice pace to run at (seems likely even in a relatively small field), he should put in another huge performance, and 13/2 is a big price in my eyes. I think 9/2 or 5/1 would be more representative of his chances.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread FFS. 5/1 into 5/2. Given a stinker. So frustrating when horses with ability have to be held back by regular jockeys, who aren't very good, but are related to the trainer.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Thought today could be a big one. Not to be. Need the also well-backed (means nothing atm) Legal Legacy to win now. 4/1 from 13/2.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2nd. Chuffing lovely. 46 flat winners. 95 flat places. Obviously gonna get more places than wins, but that's annoying. Going utterly terribly this season.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.00 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Royal Alcor @ 20/1 (PP) This race wasn't priced up when looking last night, and this horse is worth chancing with a small win bet at such a big price. Obviously a quirky character, he showed next to nothing in three maidens before the blinkers were applied. Improved hugely for their application when a staying on 3rd over 10f at Windsor in a claimer off very unfavourable terms. Confirmed this promise when winning well here the next two times, including over today's c&d. Struggled in hotter company next time before a rough trip over 9f caught him out. He was forced wide under Zoe Lilly and was still going ok past the 3 furlong pole when bumped from side to side around the bend. Stopped his momentum, and being a horse who seemingly wants everything his own way, it wouldn't have been ideal over the trip which is possibly a little short now, with his inexperienced rider on board. Ran okay last time without the blinkers on and their return today can hopefully spark him back to life in a weak affair. He's been dropped another 2lb s, to take him just 4lbs higher than his most recent easy success, and this isn't strong. The favourite may be tough to beat but drops back 2f which has to be a concern off 6lbs higher given the way he stayed on strongly on that occasion last time out.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Yup.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread All of my last 6 flat bets have been in the money. Means nothing when 5 don't win! Deficit increasing by the race, even though they're running okay :(

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.45 Southwell - 3pts win Caldercruix @ 6/1 (Bet365) James Evans' horse has to prove he can handle the fibresand here, but if he does, then I think he'll run a blinder here. They have utilised his pace over 6f, but he stays a little bit further, which is probably going to be handy on this surface which is riding a little slow. He has done very well for his current yard with the visor on, running good races in decent handicaps on the polytrack at Wolverhampton over 6f on his last three starts. He comfortably beat Silver Wind before finishing a good 3rd in a competitive little race off 76 with Steve Drowne aboard. He hung left when beaten a length last time with Simon Pearce claiming 3lbs (on today) and this mark looks exploitable with the claim especially. That form again looks very solid and he appears sure to run his race if the surface holds no fears. His sire is 18% on all-weather surfaces and I feel his running style and that extra bit of stamina over this trip will suit him today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.15 Southwell - 3pts win Pink Evie @ 9/1 (Bet365) If Gay Kelloway's charge can reproduce the form of her latest run today, now switched to the fibresand for her handicap debut, she may well be well-treated here. She struggled a bit on her debut over 6f, but it wasn't a terrible effort in a race that did at least work out at the moderate level. She couldn't produce anything next time out. The race was strong for the level, but still, being beaten as far as she was, was not particularly encouraging. However, she shaped much better last time when staying on over a mile at Wolverhampton at huge odds. She was only beaten 6 1/2l in 5th, in a race that worked out well. The winner was rated 70, with the 2nd horse slamming a 70-rated rival next time out. The third, beaten over 5l, beat a nice type next time, and the 4th was rated 70 and ran well next time out. Therefore, it appears that my selection ran to a higher mark than 55, or at least is very capable of winning off this mark with a similar run. She sneaks into this 0-55 maiden handicap and typically it is a very weak affair. She seemed to really improve for the tongue-tie last time out and that stays on here. Kelloway's horses have been running well recently and this looks an ideal opportunity for another winner at a nice price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.00 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Pipers Piping @ 9/1 (PP) This horse has got to be worth a small investment in a race such as this, because he's clearly thriving at the minute, and wasn't suited by the race behind today's market leader last time out. He's been in good form off marks in the mid-60s, including when chasing home a subsequent fibresand winner, and stayed on to be not beaten far in a decent claimer at Wolverhampton next time out. Benefited from Leonna Mayor's 7lb claim when dotting up at Southwell last week before finding the extra furlong at Wolverhampton too much last time. He also didn't get a clear run and I don't really rate Nicole Norblad. Gets the 5lbs off his back today in the shape of Amy Scott - a rider who this horse has gone well for in the past. This 6-y-o appears to be in as good a form as ever, and running off essentially a mark of 66 can see him involved again today. Can take a grip which is a concern with not much pace in the race, but considering the top horse only wins at Southwell really, and McCool Bananas is still a maiden, makes this weak. Master Of Dance has a solid chance but might need a stronger gallop and often finds one too good. The favourite beat my selection last time, and I think 9/1 is a fair price that the form can be turned around now stepped back in trip and with a more suitable jockey on board.